• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate-economy model

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Drought damage in the national economy by Climate change using water input-output model (기후변화 시나리오에 의한 가뭄 피해 추정연구)

  • Ryu, Mun-Hyun;Jang, Seok-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.130-130
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    • 2011
  • 물은 인간생활에 없어서는 안될 필수재화이며 경제활동의 모든 생산활동에도 필요 불가결한 재화이다. 최근 기후변화로 인해 우리나라의 기후변화 패턴은 극한 홍수와 극한 가뭄을 경험하고 있다. 우리나라의 기상 패턴을 살펴보면 6-7년 주기로 극심한 가뭄이 발생하고 있다. 2009년 태백지역에서는 식수가 중단되는 극심한 가뭄을 경험한 바 있다. 기후변화로 인한 영향중 가뭄의 특성은 언제부터 가뭄이 발생한 것인지에 대한 판단이 어렵고 또한 갑작스러운 강우발생으로 가뭄이 해갈됨으로써 가뭄피해의 심각성을 인지하지 못하는 것이다. 따라서 가뭄에 대한 대응정책은 상대적으로 뒤로 미루어져왔다. 본 연구는 가뭄이 발생할 경우, 그 정도에 따라 물의 잠재가격 추정을 통해 가뭄이 미치는 사회경제적 피해와 파급효과를 분석하기 위한 모형과 결과를 제시하였다.

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An Analysis on CO2 Emission and Cost Effects of Hydrogen Energy in Sedan Sector (수소에너지의 승용차부문 도입에 따른 CO2 배출 감축 및 비용효과 분석 연구)

  • Hong, Jong-Chul;Kang, Seung-Jin;Choi, Sang-Jin;Park, Sang-Young;Kim, Jong-Wook
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.9-21
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    • 2009
  • As one of the alternative solution for energy and environmental issues such as climate change, energy security, oil price, etc., hydrogen energy has been getting so much attentions these days. This paper analyzed the $CO_2$ emission, costs, and energy consumptions when the hydrogen energy was introduced to transportation, specifically in Sedan sector using the energy system model, MARKAL. As results, 21.5% of $CO_2$ emission in 2040 could be reduced and additional 76 billion dollars will be needed in the high energy price scenario. The amount of energy saving mainly due to the replacement of existing car to hydrogen vehicle was 16% of the final energy consumption in 2040.

Green-house GAS Reduction Through the Environmental Policy Mixes Both Environmental Trading and Carbon Taxes (온실가스 감축을 위한 배출권거래제와 탄소세의 정책혼합 효과 분석)

  • Lim, Jae-Ku;Kim, Jeong-In
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.245-274
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    • 2003
  • This paper analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of domestic policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by focusing on carbon tax, domestic emissions trading and the mixture of these policies. By utilizing a dynamic CGE model, KORTEM, this study shows that the economic cost under carbon tax is projected to be higher than that under emission trading. It is because under carbon tax scheme each emitter in economy must meet its emission target regardless of the abatement cost. On the other hand, emission trading allows emitters to reduce the marginal cost of abatement through trading of emission permits. In designing policy portfolio to address the climate change problem in Korea, therefore, this paper proposes the introduction of domestic emission trading scheme as the main domestic policy Instrument.

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An Integrated Artificial Neural Network-based Precipitation Revision Model

  • Li, Tao;Xu, Wenduo;Wang, Li Na;Li, Ningpeng;Ren, Yongjun;Xia, Jinyue
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.1690-1707
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    • 2021
  • Precipitation prediction during flood season has been a key task of climate prediction for a long time. This type of prediction is linked with the national economy and people's livelihood, and is also one of the difficult problems in climatology. At present, there are some precipitation forecast models for the flood season, but there are also some deviations from these models, which makes it difficult to forecast accurately. In this paper, based on the measured precipitation data from the flood season from 1993 to 2019 and the precipitation return data of CWRF, ANN cycle modeling and a weighted integration method is used to correct the CWRF used in today's operational systems. The MAE and TCC of the precipitation forecast in the flood season are used to check the prediction performance of the proposed algorithm model. The results demonstrate a good correction effect for the proposed algorithm. In particular, the MAE error of the new algorithm is reduced by about 50%, while the time correlation TCC is improved by about 40%. Therefore, both the generalization of the correction results and the prediction performance are improved.

Statistical Model Analysis of Urban Spatial Structures and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) - Air Pollution (AP) Integrated Emissions in Seoul (서울시 도시공간구조와 온실가스-대기오염 통합 배출량의 통계모형분석)

  • Jung, Jaehyung;Kwon, O-Yul
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.303-316
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    • 2015
  • The relationship between urban spatial structures and GHG-AP integrated emissions was investigated by statistically analyzing those from 25 administrative districts of Seoul. Urban spatial structures, of which data were obtained from Seoul statistics yearbook, were classified into five categories of city development, residence, environment, traffic and economy. They were further classified into 10 components of local area, population, number of households, residential area, forest area, park area, registered vehicles, road area, number of businesses and total local taxes. GHG-AP integrated emissions were estimated based on IPCC(intergovernmental panel on climate change) 2006 guidelines, guideline for government greenhouse inventories, EPA AP-42(compilation of air pollutant emission factors) and preliminary studies. The result of statistical analysis indicated that GHG-AP integrated emissions were significantly correlated with urban spatial structures. The correlation analysis results showed that registered vehicles for GHG (r=0.803, p<0.01), forest area for AP (r=0.996, p<0.01), and park area for AP (r=0.889, p<0.01) were highly significant. From the factor analysis, three groups such as city and traffic categories, economy category and environment category were identified to be the governing factors controlling GHG-AP emissions. The multiple regression analysis also represented that the most influencing factors on GHG-AP emissions were categories of traffic and environment. 25 administrative districts of Seoul were clustered into six groups, of which each has similar characteristics of urban spatial structures and GHG-AP integrated emissions.

An Evaluation of Net-zero Contribution Regarding Hydrogen Energy Conversion in Urban Building and Transport Sector (도시의 건물 및 수송 부문에서의 수소에너지 전환에 따른 탄소중립 기여도 평가)

  • SO JEONG JANG;RAE SANG PARK;YOUNG HOON CHOI;YONG WOO HWANG
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.100-112
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    • 2023
  • This study evaluated the contribution of carbon neutrality by calculating the carbon reduction amount and reduction intensity targeting the hydrogen pilot city and applying it to the carbon neutral reduction target. In the building sector, the reduction amount for 2030 was 10.8% on average. In addition, by 2050, the contribution to carbon neutrality of plan A was 14.1% on average, and the contribution to carbon neutrality of plan B was 15.1% on average. In the 2030 reduction amount of the transportation sector, the contribution to carbon neutrality was 138.4% on average. In addition, by 2050, the contribution to carbon neutrality in plan A was 82.5% on average, and the contribution to carbon neutrality in plan B was 74.9%. From the above research results, additional carbon reduction is possible when creating a hydrogen city, so it will be used as a basis of city-level carbon neutral model. It will also be used as a basis for technology development and investment promotion for various hydrogen supply methods in the future.

Analysis of the Impacts of Carbon and Energy Taxes on Energy on Energy System in Korea (META·Net모형을 이용한 탄소세와 에너지세의 정책효과 비교분석)

  • Shin, Eui Soon;Kim, Ho Seok
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.275-298
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    • 2003
  • This paper compares the economic effects of climate policy options in Korea. The impacts and implications of carbon and Btu tax schemes are analyzed using the META Net modeling system, which was developed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Findings indicate that carbon tax is more cost effective compared to Btu tax, but this does not necessarily mean the former is more desirable than the latter. Energy market stability and national energy security is equally important in choosing policy options. Moreover Btu tax is more effective in reducing energy consumption in general. It reduces not only carbon intensive energy sources, but non-fossil fuel like electricity. Korean economy consumes too much energy and energy efficiency is very low compared to other OECD countries. So the reduction of energy demand growth should be the first priority of the national energy policy in Korea.

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Measuring the Non-market Value of the Introduction of Electric Vehicles to National Parks Against Climate Change (기후변화의 대응수단으로서 국립공원 내 전기자동차 도입의 비시장적 가치 추정에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Tae;Min, Woong-Ki;Kim, Nam-Jo
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.81-102
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    • 2014
  • As carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is generally emitted by vehicles, the development and distribution of electric cars is important for the sustainability of environmentally-friendly tourism, especially in national parks. National parks in Korea, however, still see the use of traditional vehicles powered by internal combustion engines in the handling of visitors and the transportation of goods and staff. Such engines being the cause of environmental problems such as exhaust emission and noise pollution, the introduction of electric cars in national parks is needed. This study aims to analyze the economic value of electric cars in national parks as well as contribute to the development of the Green Transportation model in tourism destinations. The study used a logit model to estimate the willingness to pay for the introduction of electric cars in national parks. Adults over the age of twenty, with gender and age apportioned equally, were surveyed using questionnaires that included dichotomous as well as demographic questions. The findings show that the amount an individual is willing to pay for the purpose of environmental conservation is 3,948 won, while the value the national parks would derive from the use of electric cars is 56,138,130,000 won. The introduction of electric cars in national parks is expected to offer both direct and indirect benefits while helping to improving the environment of the national parks by eliminating exhaust emission and noise. This introduction would also be a response to climate change that can be taken by society as a whole.

The Concept of the Future and the New Paradigm of the Fifth Spiral: State, Business, Science, Society and Informatization

  • Sabden, Orazaly
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.173-185
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    • 2018
  • At a turn of the third millennium the world storms and quickly changes. It became difficult to expect what expects us tomorrow. The most important are questions of recovery from the crisis and rescue of mankind from forthcoming global changes: warming of climate, water and food problems, social, economic and political conflicts that are shaking the world and other various cataclysms, accidents, negative processes. It puts before mankind the problem which never solved by our civilization. All this is caused by ignoring of objective economic laws, laws of wildlife and also by violation of cyclic development management's laws. In article the concept of strategy of mankind's survival in XXI and next centuries, the principles of creation of planetary house of universal civilization for post-industrial world based on spirituality scientific and technological revolutions, ecology, space exploration, economy and world safety are considered. Introduction of uniform universal measurement of currency for the whole world in the form of "power" is offered. Important aspect of a research is theoretical postulate on integrated innovative society. The author puts forward a new paradigm of government on a basis of 5 spirals. The basic model of forced development of small and medium business, including 9 projects, is developed.

New Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Policies (새로운 연산가능일반균형모형을 이용한 온실가스 감축정책의 영향 분석)

  • Han, Minsoo;Moon, Jin-Young
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.169-205
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    • 2021
  • This study quantitatively analyzes the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policies on the global economy. To this end, we develop a multi-national and multi-industry static computational general equilibrium model that includes three components-GHG emissions from production, disutility due to GHG emissions, and governments' GHG emissions reduction policies. Then we calibrate the model with the relevant data and solve for the equlibrium using the most recent methodology (exact hat algebra). We find that the strengthening of unilateral GHG emissions reduction policies for each country reduces carbon emissions from domestic producers, but does not necessarily reduce global carbon emissions as production is relocated to other countries. On the other hand, we can reduce GHG emissions when all major countries simultaneously implement the strengthened reduction policies proposed by the OECD (2016). Our results imply that aligned reduction efforts of major countries are necessary to reduce global GHG emissions.