• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.563-573
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• 2018

An Expert Seasonal Prediction System for operational Seasonal Outlook (ESPreSSO) is developed based on the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) dynamical prediction and expert-guided statistical downscaling techniques. Dynamical models have improved to provide meaningful seasonal prediction, and their prediction skills are further improved by various ensemble and downscaling techniques. However, experienced scientists and forecasters make subjective correction for the operational seasonal outlook due to limited prediction skills and biases of dynamical models. Here, a hybrid seasonal prediction system that grafts experts' knowledge and understanding onto dynamical MME prediction is developed to guide operational seasonal outlook in Korea. The basis dynamical prediction is based on the APCC MME, which are statistically mapped onto the station-based observations by experienced experts. Their subjective selection undergoes objective screening and quality control to generate final seasonal outlook products after physical ensemble averaging. The prediction system is constructed based on 23-year training period of 1983-2005, and its performance and stability are assessed for the independent 11-year prediction period of 2006-2016. The results show that the ESPreSSO has reliable and stable prediction skill suitable for operational use.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.264-272
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• 2011

The objective of this study was to develop a model for predicting long-term runoff in a basin using the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique and review its reliability. To achieve the objective, this study improved not only the ESP technique based on the ensemble scenario analysis of historical rainfall data but also conventional ESP techniques used in conjunction with qualitative climate forecasting information, and analyzed and assessed their improvement effects. The model was applied to the Geum River basin. To undertake runoff forecasting, this study tried three cases (case 1: Climate Outlook + ESP, case 2: ESP probability through monthly measured discharge, case 3: Season ESP probability of case 2) according to techniques used to calculate ESP probabilities. As a result, the mean absolute error of runoff forecasts for case 1 proposed by this study was calculated as 295.8 MCM. This suggests that case 1 showed higher reliability in runoff forecasting than case 2 (324 MCM) and case 3 (473.1 MCM). In a discrepancy-ratio accuracy analysis, the Climate Outlook + ESP technique displayed 50.0%. This suggests that runoff forecasting using the Climate Outlook +ESP technique with the lowest absolute error was more reliable than other two cases.

• Industry Promotion Research
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.31-44
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• 2017

This study is to investigate the relationship between the communication type recognized by members of organization and the learning transfer climate in the organization, and when it comes to the type of communications within organization set as independent variable, four variables such as communication with supervisor, media quality communication, and organizational outlook communication were proposed and regarding learning transfer climate which is a dependent variable, four sub-parameters such as supervisor support, colleague support, transfer opportunity and organizational compensation recognition were selected. 116 copies of the statistical data excluding statistically insignificant surveys were used for 150 participants who participated in the 2015 core competency curriculum for SMEs and 3 months have passed, in order to achieve this study's objective. Meanwhile, the research hypothesis was verified with the collected data through frequency analysis, factor analysis, reliability verification, technical statistical analysis, and simple and multiple regression analysis by using the statistical package program of SPSS 20.0. Results of this study have shown that firstly, communication with supervisor, media quality communication, and organizational outlook communication all showed a positive (+) significant influence on the superior support in the influence relationship between communication type in organization and supervisor support which is learning transfer climate. Secondly, communication type in organization doesn't appear to affect colleague support of learning transfer climate. Thirdly, communication with supervisor, media quality communication, and organizational outlook except for communication with colleagues have shown a positive (+) influence on transfer opportunity in the influence relationship between communication type in organization and transfer opportunity of learning transfer climate. Lastly, communication with supervisor and communication on organizational outlook showed positive(+) influence in the influence relationship between communication type in organization and organizational compensation recognition of learning transfer climate.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.14-26
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• 2021

Increase of climate variability due to climate change has paved the way for regional drought monitoring and outlook. In particular, Gimcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do, is suffering from frequent and periodic drought damage as the frequency and magnitude of drought are increasing due to climate change. For this reason, it is necessary to analyze drought characteristics for sub-districts based on water district and calculate the basic low-flow considering climate change. In this study, meteorological and hydrological drought outlook were carried out for 8 sub-districts considering the water supply system and regional characteristics of Gimcheon-si according to various climate change scenarios. In addition, the low-flow frequency analysis for the near future was also performed using the total amount of runoff and the low-flow. The overall results indicated that, meteorological droughts were found to be dangerous in the S0(1974~2019) period and hydrological droughts would be dangerous in the S2(2041~2070) period for RCP 4.5 and in S3(2071~2099) period for RCP 8.5. The results of low-flow frequency analysis indicated that future runoff would increase but drought magnitude and frequency would increase further. The results and methodology may be useful for preparing local governments' drought measures and design standards for local water resources facilities.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.45-58
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• 2024

Drought risk is expected to increase as the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts increase due to climate change. Drought risk is related to not only hydro-meteorological factors, but also water supply and demand. Recently, along with climate change, socioeconomic factors have also been recognized to increase drought risk. Therefore, it is necessary to outlook the drought risk considering various conditions for coping with future extreme droughts in a timely manner. In addition, considering various drought scenarios help reduce the uncertainty in future drought outlook. In this study, drought scenarios considering climate change scenarios, population, and water demand were created to outlook drought risk for 160 administrative districts in Korea, then new levels of drought risk were assigned based on the results of drought risk outlook to suggest drought management measures. The results showed that the drought risk will increase in the future in 2020, 2025, and 2030, compared to past. Especially the drought risk is likely twice as high in 2030 under the baseline and high scenarios. Applying the drought outlook results from this study to the new methodology for setting the risk levels shows that most regions are in Response (V) in 2020 and 2030 for baseline and high scenarios.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.425-434
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• 2013

Nowadays, the korean peninsula has endured weather changes toward to the subtropical climate. Also demographical structure has changed into multi-cultural society in which many people from subtropical areas have immigrated into Korea. Therefore, consumption and production of subtropical vegetables become important. For the analysis, we choose eight important subtropical crops. EDM (Equilibrium Displacement Model) with many parameters and elasticities is used for the forecast of consumption and required cultivation area. The simulation focuses on the changes of the number of foreign workers and immigrated women in Korea to predict the quantity of consumption and required area in Korea. The results show that we need additional land area about 581~1,065 ha for the cropping subtropical vegetables in Korea. Finally, these required area can be provided by the cities and counties in coast area in Gyeongsangnam-Do, Jeonranam-Do and Jeju-Do. Climate change will be continued in the future. Together with climate change, the change of demographical structure into multi-culture may increase consumption and production of subtropical vegetables. Forecasting of increased consumption and required cultivation area for subtropical vegetables is significant.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2015.08a
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• pp.177-182
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• 2015

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2003.09a
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• pp.139-158
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• 2003

지금으로부터 15년전, 1988년 기후변화에 대한 과학적 평가를 목적으로 UN 산하에 정부간 기후변화패널(IPCC)이 설립되었다. IPCC는 현재 우리가 직면하고 있는 '지구 기후는 변하고 있는가\ulcorner', '이러한 기후변화의 원안은 인간 활동 때문인가\ulcorner'라는 두 가지 의문에 대한 답을 구하기 위하여 과학자들을 중심으로 구성된 조직이다.(중략)

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2015.08a
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• pp.146-150
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• 2015

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2018.06a
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• pp.101-102
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• 2018