• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.891-905
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• 2011

Climate vulnerability index is usually defined as a function of the climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, which requires adequate selection of proxy variables of each variable. We selected and used 9 proxy variables related to climate exposure in the literature, and diagnosed the adequacy of them for application in Korean peninsula. The selected proxy variables are: four variables from temperature, three from precipitation, one from wind speed, and one from relative humidity. We collected climate data over both previous year (1981~2010) and future climate scenario (A1B scenario of IPCC SERES) for 2020, 2050, and 2100. We introduced the spatial and temporal diagnostic statistical parameters, and evaluated both spatial and time variabilities in the relative scale. Of 9 proxy variables, effective humidity indicated the most sensitive to climate change temporally with the biggest spatial variability, implying a good proxy variable in diagnostics of climate change vulnerability in Korea. The second most sensitive variable is the frequency of strong wind speed with a decreasing trend, suggesting that it should be used carefully or may not be of broad utility as a proxy variable in Korea. The A1B scenario of future climate in 2020, 2050 and 2100 matches well with the extension of linear trend of observed variables during 1981~2010, indicating that, except for strong wind speed, the selected proxy variables can be effectively used in calculating the vulnerability index for both past and future climate over Korea. Other local variabilities for the past and future climate in association with climate exposure variables are also discussed here.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2022

Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.34 no.14
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• pp.5621-5634
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• 2021

The life cycle of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically follows a seasonal march, with onset in spring, developing during summer, maturing in boreal winter, and decaying over the following spring. This feature is referred to as ENSO phase locking. Recent studies have noted that seasonal modulation of the ENSO growth rate is essential for this process. This study investigates the fundamental effect of a seasonally varying growth rate on ENSO phase locking using a modified seasonally dependent recharge oscillator model. There are two phase locking regimes associated with the strength of the seasonal modulation of growth rate: 1) a weak regime in which only a single peak occurs and 2) a strong regime in which two types of events occur either with a single peak or with a double peak. Notably, there is a seasonal gap in the strong regime, during which the ENSO peak cannot occur because of large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupled processes. We also retrieve a simple analytical solution of the seasonal variance of ENSO, revealing that the variance is governed by the time integral of seasonally varying growth rate. Based on this formulation, we propose a seasonal energy index (SEI) that explains the seasonal gap and provides an intuitive explanation for ENSO phase locking, potentially applicable to global climate model ENSO diagnostics.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.833-848
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• 2014

The assessment of the current and future climate change-induced potential wind energy is an important issue in the planning and operations of wind farm. Here, the authors analyze spatiotemporal characteristics and variabilities of wind energy over Korean Peninsula in the near future (2006-2040) using Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios data. In this study, National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) regional climate model HadGEM3-RA based RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios are analyzed. The comparison between ERA-interim and HadGEM3-RA during the period of 1981-2005 indicates that the historical simulation of HadGEM3-RA slightly overestimates (underestimates) the wind energy over the land (ocean). It also shows that interannual and intraseasonal variability of hindcast data is generally larger than those of reanalysis data. The investigation of RCP scenarios based future wind energy presents that future wind energy density will increase over the land and decrease over the ocean. The increase in the wind energy and its variability is particularly significant over the mountains and coastal areas, such as Jeju island in future global warming. More detailed analysis presents that the changes in synoptic conditions over East Asia in future decades can influence on the predicted wind energy abovementioned. It is also suggested that the uncertainty of the predicted future wind energy may increase because of the increase of interannual and intra-annual variability. In conclusion, our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.43 no.6
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• pp.516-524
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• 2017

Objectives: The annual catch of the common squid Todarodes pacificus in Korean coastal waters has gradually increased since the late 1980s. We investigated the long-term effects of climate variability on the variation in catches of the squid in the offshore fisheries of Korea. Methods: Moving average method, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between the environmental factors and fluctuation in the catch of the squid during the past 30 years (1981- 2010). A ten-year moving average was calculated and used for each variable. Results: Squid catches in Korean coastal waters increased over time, and there were significant variations within every ten years (p < 0.001). Air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind grade among the meteorological factors, alongside sea surface temperature (SST) and concentrations of phosphate phosphorous, and nitrite/nitrate nitrogen in the sea water increased and were positively related with the catch size of squid (p < 0.001). However, salinity decreased and was negatively related with the catch size (p < 0.001). The increase in air temperature and SST was almost parallel, although there was a time lag between the two factors. Conclusion: These results suggest that there is a causal association between climate change and squid populations. Climate change, especially ocean warming, appears to have been largely favorable for squid range expansion into Korean seas. Although the expansion may be helpful for the human food supply, the safety of the squid caught should be monitored since the concentrations of phosphorous and nitrogen in the sea water increased, which indicates that Korean seas have grown gradually more polluted.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.203-208
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• 2015

This study was conducted to provide the agricultural climatological basic data for the reset of sowing period of the winter crop on the double cropping system with rice. During the past 30 years from 1981 to 2010, mean air temperature has risen by $0.45^{\circ}C$ per 10 years (with statistical significance), while precipitation has decreased by 6.74 mm per 10 years and the numbers of days for precipitation has reduced by 0.23 days per 10 years (with no statistical significance) in the sowing period ($1^{st}$ Oct. to $5^{th}$ Nov.) of winter crop. It was analyzed that double cropping system of rice and winter crops need to be reset in the way of delaying the sowing time of winter crops, because rising trend of temperature was clear while variability of precipitation was great and the trend was not clear in the sowing period of winter crops. We have also analyzed the meteorological features of the sowing period of winter crops in 2014, and found that mean air temperature in 2014 was higher than that in normal years (similar to recent temperature change feature) while precipitation in 2014 was much more frequent than that in normal years (unlike recent precipitation features). Such tendency in 2014 made the sowing of winter crops difficult because mechanical sowing could not be worked in flooded paddy fields. Heavy rain in October 2014 was also analyzed as a rare phenomenon.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.125-132
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• 2008

Generally, stationary is considered as a basic assumption in frequency analysis. However, rainfall and flood discharge are changing due to the climate change and climate variability. Therefore, there is a new opinion that changing pattern of rainfall and flood discharge must be considered in frequency analysis. This study suggests the flood frequency analysis methodology using SIR algorithm which was developed from bootstrap could be used for considering climate change. Than is, SIR algorithm is selected for resampling method considering changing pattern of flood discharge and it has been used for resampling method with likelihood function. Resampled flood discharge data considering the increase of flood discharge pattern are used for parametric flood frequency analysis and this results are compared with frequency analysis results by Bootstrap and original observations. As the results, SIR algorithm shows the greatest flood discharge than other methods in all frequencies and this may reflect the increasing pattern of flood discharge due to the climate change and climate variability.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.34 no.16
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• pp.6565-6581
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• 2021

This study investigates the role of the background meridional moisture gradient (MMG) on the propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC) region. It is found that the interannual variability of the seasonal mean MMG over the southern MC area is associated with the meridional expansion and contraction of the moist area in the vicinity of the MC. Sea surface temperature anomalies associated with relatively high and low seasonal mean MMG exhibit patterns that resemble those of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. By contrasting the years with anomalously low and high MMG, we show that MJO propagation through the MC is enhanced (suppressed) in years with higher (lower) seasonal mean MMG, although the effect is less robust when MMG anomalies are weak. Column-integrated moisture budget analysis further shows that sufficiently large MMG anomalies affect MJO activity by modulating the meridional advection of the mean moisture via MJO wind anomalies. Our results suggest that the background moisture distribution has a strong control over the propagation characteristics of the MJO in the MC region.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.89-100
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• 2012

This study analyzes spatio-temporal variability of discomfort index for summer the during the past ten years(2001~2010) in the Korean Peninsula, and considers the application possibility of discomfort index as a preliminary data for various phenomenon of society based on the analysis. Discomfort index defined as daily representative value was estimated using hourly temperature and humidity data which are observed 60 weather stations managed by Korea Meteorological Administration. The result indicates that the discomfort index in summer keeps the level at which one feels unpleasant, and the level increased steadily as temperature is rising. And discomfort index in 3 pm and on August are the highest during the day and year. Gangwon-do have shown the lowest discomfort index among the provinces. Variability analysis of discomfort index due to climate changes can be used for making policies in various fields such as industry and public health field.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.59-67
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• 2018

In this study, the $N_2O$, emitted from combustion facility, were analyzed by using simulated gas and field samples to find out how long samples can be stored in Tedlar bag. According to the results of the experiment using simulated gases (1 ppm, 5 ppm, 10 ppm) in Tedlar bag, After 144hr, $N_2O$ concentration of simulated gases changed that 1 ppm is 5.3%, 5 ppm is 12.8%, and 10ppm is 10.5%. The higher initial concentration of simulated gas was, the larger rate of $N_2O$ concentration was changed. In case of high concentration samples, it need to be careful when it was analyzed after 144 hr. Stability evaluation in Tedlar bag was carried out through field samples such as combustion facility of bituminous coal, B-C oil and LNG. The concentration rate of field samples, which is under 1 ppm of average initial concentration, was evaluated using statistical method. As a result, $N_2O$ concentrations were changed to field samples in the bag even when 96 hr had passed. And after sampling, it is necessary that sample analysis should be quickly as soon as possible.