• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.154-154
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• 2018

To interpret the climate projections for the future as well as present, recognition of the consequences of the climate internal variability and quantification its uncertainty play a vital role. The Korean Peninsula belongs to the Far East Asian Monsoon region and its rainfall characteristics are very complex from time and space perspective. Its internal variability is expected to be large, but this variability has not been completely investigated to date especially using models of high temporal resolutions. Due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections, several studies adopted dynamic and statistical downscaling approaches to infer meterological forcing from climate change projections at local spatial scales and fine temporal resolutions. In this study, stochastic downscaling methodology was adopted to downscale daily GCM resolutions to hourly time scale using an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). After extracting factors of change from the GCM realizations, these were applied to the climatic statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series which can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. Further, 30 ensemble members of hourly precipitation were generated for each selected station to quantify uncertainty. Spatial map was generated to visualize as separated zones formed through K-means cluster algorithm which region is more inconsistent as compared to the climatological norm or in which region the probability of occurrence of the extremes event is high. The results showed that the stations located near the coastal regions are more uncertain as compared to inland regions. Such information will be ultimately helpful for planning future adaptation and mitigation measures against extreme events.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.433-440
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• 2001

Marine organisms in Antarctica live in an environment which exhibits variability in physical processes over a wide range of temporal scales, from seconds to millennia. This time scale tends to be correlated with the spatial scale over which a given process operates, though this relationship is influenced by biology. The way organisms respond to variability in the physical environment depends on the time-scale of that variability in relation to life-span. Short-term variations are perceived largely as noise and probably have little direct impact on ecology. Of much greater importance to organisms in Antarctica are seasonal and decadal variations. Although seasonality has long been recognised as a key feature of polar environments, the realization that decadal scale variability is important is relatively recent. Long-term change has always been a feature of polar environments and may be a key factor in the evolution of the communities we see today.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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• pp.268-272
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• 2010

The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.259-272
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• 2013

One of the factors influencing the climate around Korea is the oceanic-atmospheric variability in the tropical region between the eastern Indian and the western Pacific Oceans. Lack of knowledge about the air-sea interaction in the tropical Indo-Pacific region continues to make it problematic forecasting the ocean climate in the East Asia. The 'Tropical Indo-Pacific water transport and ecosystem monitoring EXperiment (TIPEX)' is a program for monitoring the ocean circulation variability between Pacific and Indian Oceans and for improving the accuracy of future climate forecasting. The main goal of the TIPEX program is to quantify the climate and ocean circulation change between the Indian and the Pacific Oceans. The contents of the program are 1) to observe the mixing process of different water masses and water transport in the eastern Indian and the western Pacific, 2) to understand the large-scale oceanic-climatic variation including El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)/Warm Pool/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)/Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and 3) to monitor the biogeochemical processes, material flux, and biological changes due to the climate change. In order to effectively carry out the monitoring program, close international cooperation and the proper co-work sharing of tasks between China, Japan, Indonesia, and India as well as USA is required.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.31-43
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• 2003

The impacts of climate change on soil moisture in sub - Arctic watershed simulated by using the hydrologic model. A range of arbitrary changes in temperature and precipitation are applied to the runoff model to study the sensitivity of soil moisture due to potential changes in precipitation and temperature. The sensitivity analysis indicates that changes in precipitation are always amplified in soil moisture with the amplification factor for flow. The change in precipitation has effect on the soil moisture in the catchment. The percentage change in soil moisture levels can be greater than the percentage change in precipitation. Compared to precipitation, temperature increases or decreases alone have impacts on the soil moisture. These results show the potential for climate change to bring about soil moisture that may require a significant planning response. They are also indicative of the fact that hydrological impacts affecting water supply may be important in consider-ing the cost and benefits of potential climate change.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.97-104
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• 2012

Over the last century, drainage systems have become an integral component of agriculture. Climate observations and experiments using General circulation models suggest an intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change. This study presents hydrologic simulations assessing the potential impact of climate change on subsurface drainage in Daegu, Republic of Korea. Historical and Long Ashton Research Station weather generator perturbed future climate data from 15 general circulation models for a field in Daegu were ran into a water management simulation model, DRAINMOD. The trends and variability in rainfall and Soil Excess Water ($SEW_{30}$) were assessed from 1960 to 2100. Rainfall amount and intensity were predicted to increase in the future. The predicted annual subsurface drainage flow varied from -35 to 40 % of the baseline value while the $SEW_{30}$ varied from -50 to 100%. The expected increases in subsurface drainage outflow require that more attention be given to soil and water conservation practices.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.490-513
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• 2012

이 연구에서는 최근의 한국인에 의한 기후 연구 경향을 파악하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 한국연구재단 등재 학술지 6종과 국제학술지 4종을 분석하였으며, 연구기간은 2001년부터 2011년까지이다. 최근 기후변화에 대한 연구가 급증하였으며, 강수량 변동에 대한 연구는 꾸준히 이루어지고 있다. 기후변화 연구 중 기상학자는 특성과 예측에, 지리학자는 특성과 영향에 집중하였다. 응용 및 생물기후학 분야에서는 기후변화에 관한 관심의 증대로 농업, 축산업, 식생, 보건 등에 대한 기후변화의 영향 연구가 증가하였다. 기후지 분야의 연구는 꾸준히 수행되고 있으나 최근 감소 추세이다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
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• pp.195-195
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• 2017

The patterns of occurrence of typhoons in North Pacific region are constantly changing with the increase of temperature in sea surface and the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina and changes of their development caused by global warming. In addition, alterations of flow regimes caused by large-scale hydraulic construction projects in the past few years and changes in precipitation patterns caused by climate change have imposed increased stress on hydroecology while the indiscreet utilization of water resources has a negative environmental impact on the water flows in the natural rivers and streams and hydroecological structures. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of altered hydrologic regime on stream and riparian ecosystems that are most vulnerable to climate variability and extremes such as typhoons.

• 대기
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.27-35
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• 2010

This study analyzes the climate change in Korea and its impact on the occurrence of forest fire events. The forest fire occurrences in Korea tend to concentrate around large cities. In addition, the spatial distribution of the forest fire occurrence seems to agree with local climate conditions. Though the occurrence of the forest fire shows strong interannual variation, it also exhibits a positive trend. Because the forest fire frequently occurs during early spring, we examined long term climate variability in Korea for the early spring seasons. The climate change in Korea generally has brought warmer, drier, and less precipitable conditions during the early spring. The changes of the atmospheric conditions provide favorable condition for the forest fire. The climate changes in Korea also depict distinct spatial variability according to the atmospheric variables. We compared the regional trend of the fire occurrence with the climate trends. The results show the sharpest growing in the forest fire occurrence over southwest of Korea. This study suggests that the decrease in the precipitation day might affect the sharp increasement of the forest fire occurrence in the southwest of Korea.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.45-51
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• 2009

지구기후모델을 이용하여 예측된 (1) 물성치와 (2) 현재 및 미래의 표면 에너지 입력상수의 가변성을 고려한 동결 및 융해깊이를 예측하기 위하여 확률론적 접근법이 도입되었다. 확률론적 접근법을 예시하기 위하여 극지방에서의 융해깊이 예측을 고려해보았다. 특히 확률론적 융해깊이 예측을 위하여 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션과 함께 Stefan 공식이 사용되었다. 시뮬레이션 결과는 물성치의 가변성을 보여주었다. 표면 에너지 입력상수와 온도 데이터는 융해깊이를 예측하는데 상당한 불확실성을 야기시킬 수 있다.