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Risk Analysis of Thaw Penetration Due to Global Climate Change in Cold Regions  

Bae, Yoon-Shin (한국해양연구원 연안개발에너지 연구부)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation / v.9, no.2, 2009 , pp. 45-51 More about this Journal
Abstract
A probabilistic approach may be adopted to predict freeze and thaw depths to account for the variability of (1) material properties, and (2) contemporary and future surface energy input parameters(e.g. air temperatures, cloud cover, snow cover) predicted with global climate models. To illustrate the probabilistic approach, an example of the predicted of thaw depths in cold regions is considered. More specifically, the Stefan equation is used together with the Monte Carlo simulation technique to make a probabilistic prediction of thaw penetration. The simulation results indicate that the variability in material properties, surface energy input parameters and temperature data can lead to significant uncertainty in predicting thaw penetration.
Keywords
Monte Carlo Simulation; Probabilistic Analysis; Global Climate Change; Thaw Depth;
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