• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate Risk

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A Study of Power Law Distribution of Korean Disaster and Identification of Focusing Events (한국 재난의 멱함수분포와 사회적 충격사건에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yongkyun;Kim, Sang Pil;Cho, Hyoung-Sig;Sohn, Hong-Gyoo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2016
  • Improvements in disaster management has become a global necessity because the magnitude of disasters is intensifying in parallel with the increased disaster damage. The disaster risk in Korea is also increasing due to the emergence of new types of disaster; such as the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, the increase of complex disasters, and the heightened probability of a catastrophic event due to climate change. This paper aimed to identify the disaster loss-frequency relationship from 1948 to 2014 in Korea by using four types of variables. In addition, this paper found major disasters that resulted in the reformation of disaster response organizations, and inputted the deaths and economic loss attributed to those disasters into the disaster loss-frequency graph. The research result substantiated that the disaster loss-frequency relationship in Korea follows the Power Law and found the coefficients of each Power Function. Additionally, this paper found that most of the reformations of disaster response organizations happened after major disasters that concentrated societies attention and anger due to the high human and economic impact; such events are labelled as "focusing events." These focusing events, with the characteristics of a low probability and high impact, are located in the long tail of the Power Law Distribution. This paper suggests that the effective public policy for disaster response needs to be developed by paying attention to 'low probability and high impact' focusing events that are located in the long tail of the Power Law Distribution.

Agro-climate Characteristics and Stability in Crop Production of Daegwallyeong Area in Korea (기상자료 분석을 통한 대관령 지역의 작물 최저 한계온도일 추정)

  • Ryu, Jong-Soo;Lee, Jeong-Tae;Lee, Gye-Jun;Oh, Dong-Shig
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1153-1156
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    • 2012
  • Daegwallyeong area to be formed along the mountainous terrain more above 800 m of sea level is known as the cold zone to occur frequently wind, rain and fog. This study to evaluate the stability of crop production and agricultural production potential in the Daegwallyeong was calculated for the low temperature frequency of occurrence and potential evapotranspiration changes with announce the release of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) from 1972 to 2009 up to 38 years. Evapotranspiration calculated FAO and other international standard method authorized under the PENMAN-MONTEITH Method was used, and the low temperature onset and frequency of the Gumbel probability density function was used. As a result, the variation of day evaporation for 38 years were showed to respectively width of variation from maximum $9mm\;day^{-1}$ to minimum $0.5mm\;day^{-1}$. The frequency of reappearance to first emergence day that lasts more than 5 days with temperature $5^{\circ}C$ over is 3 April a 50-year frequency, 10 April a 25-year frequency, 20 April a 10-year frequency, 28 April a 5-year frequency, 8 May a 2-year frequency. Psychrotrophic crop to growth temperature more than $5^{\circ}C$ can be secured to stable production with planting after May 8, prior to planting for normal growth can be seen that the risk of growth.

Optimization of Multi-reservoir Operation considering Water Demand Uncertainty in the Han River Basin (수요의 불확실성을 고려한 한강수계 댐 연계 운영 최적화)

  • Chung, Gun-Hui;Ryu, Gwan-Hyeong;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 2010
  • Future uncertainty on water demand caused by future climate condition and water consumption leads a difficulty to determine the reservoir operation rule for supplying sufficient water to users. It is, thus, important to operate reservoirs not only for distributing enough water to users using the limited water resources but also for preventing floods and drought under the unknown future condition. In this study, the reservoir storage is determined in the first stage when future condition is unknown, and then, water distribution to users and river stream is optimized using the available water resources from the first stage decision using 2-stage stochastic linear programming (2-SLP). The objective function is to minimize the difference between target and actual water storage in reservoirs and the water shortage in users and river stream. Hedging rule defined by a precaution against severe drought by restricting outflow when reservoir storage decreases below a target, is also applied in the reservoir operation rule for improving the model applicability to the real system. The developed model is applied in a system with five reservoirs in the Han River basin, Korea to optimize the multi-reservoir system under various future water demand scenarios. Three multi-purposed dams - Chungju, Hoengseong, and Soyanggang - are considered in the model. Gwangdong and Hwacheon dams are also considered in the system due to the large capacity of the reservoirs, but they are primarily for water supply and power generation, respectively. As a result, the water demand of users and river stream are satisfied in most cases. The reservoirs are operated successfully to store enough water during the wet season for preparing the coming drought and also for reducing downstream flood risk. The developed model can provide an effective guideline of multi-reservoir operation rules in the basin.

A Feasibility Study of a Field-specific Weather Service for Small-scale Farms in a Topographically Complex Watershed (지형이 복잡한 집수역의 소규모농장에 맞춘 기상서비스의 실현가능성)

  • Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.317-325
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    • 2015
  • An adequate downscaling of synoptic forecasts is a prerequisite for improved agrometeorological service to rural areas in South Korea where complex terrains and small farms are common. In this study, geospatial schemes based on topoclimatology were used to scale down the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) temperature forecasts to the local scale (~30 m) across a rural catchment. Then, using these schemes, local temperatures were estimated at 14 validation sites at 0600 and 1500 LST in 2013/2014 and were compared with the observations. The estimation errors were substantially reduced for both 0600 and 1500 LST temperatures when compared against the uncorrected KMA products. The improvement was most notable at low lying locations for the 0600 temperature and at the locations on west- and south-facing slopes for the 1500 LST temperature. Using the downscaled real-time temperature data, a pilot service has started to provide the field-specific weather information tailored to meet the requirements of small-scale farms. For example, the service system makes a daily outlook on the phenology of crop species grown in a given field using the field-specific temperature data. When the temperature forecast is given for next morning, a frost risk index is calculated according to a known relationship of phenology and frost injury. If the calculated index is higher than a pre-defined threshold, a warning is issued and delivered to the grower's cellular phone with relevant countermeasures to help protect crops against frost damage.

Numerical Sensitivity Analysis on Hydraulic Characteristics by Dredging in Upstream of Abrupt Expansion Region (급확대 구간에서 준설영향으로 인한 상류 수리특성 변화에 대한 민감도 분석)

  • Jeong, Seok Il;Ryu, Kwang Hyun;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2017
  • Sediment exchange in river has been affected by artificial changes such as dredging and abnormal climate changes like intense rainfall. Over last decades in Korea, there were many constructions, restoration or rehabilitation in rivers. Therefore, deposition and erosion become more actively occurred than before, which may threaten the river safety such as flood defense. For safety's sake, the dredging of river bed, which is considered as the most typical measure, has been increased to extend hydraulic conveyance compared with previous conditions. However, since it might change the sediment mechanism, there would be another risk at which unexpected side effects such as headward erosion could be occurred. Particularly, sedimentation at abrupt expansion region is able to lead to hydraulic characteristics like water elevation in the upstream region in the beginning of dredging, which, however, has been barely studied in this field. Therefore in this study, the relationship between sediment mechanism at dredging section and hydraulic characteristics in upstream region were presented through numerical simulations in the idealized abruptly widen channel using Delft3D. The ideal channel of 2,000 m length with each side angle of 45 degrees at abruptly widen expansion region was employed to consider the sediment angle of repose. The sensitivity analysis was performed on the dimensionless factors consisted of upstream and downstream depths($h_u$, $h_d$), width($w_u$, $w_d$), water level(H), flow rate(Q) and discharge of sediment($Q_s$). And the sedimentation amount at dredging and the upstream hydraulic characteristics were investigated through that analysis. It showed that $h_d/h_u$, $H/h_u$ and $w_d/w_u$ were more influential in sequence of effect on sedimentation amount, while $h_d/h_u$, $w_d/w_u$ and $H/h_u$ on upstream region. It means that $h_d/h_u$ was revealed as the most significant factors on sedimentation, also it would most highly affect the rising of water level upstream.

Apparent and standardized ileal nutrient digestibility of broiler diets containing varying levels of raw full-fat soybean and microbial protease

  • Erdaw, Mammo M.;Perez-Maldonado, Rider A.;Iji, Paul A.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.59 no.10
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    • pp.23.1-23.11
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    • 2017
  • Background: Although soybean meal (SBM) is excellent source of protein in diets for poultry, it is sometimes inaccessible, costly and fluctuates in supply. The SBM can partially be replaced by full-fat SBM, but the meals prepared from raw full-fat soybean contain antinutritional factors. To avoid the risk of antinutritional factors, heat treatment is always advisable, but either excessive or under heating the soybean could negatively affect the quality. However, the potential for further improvement of SBM by supplementing with microbial enzymes has been suggested by many researchers. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and ileal nutrient digestibility of birds fed on diets containing raw soybeans and supplemented with microbial protease. Methods: A $3{\times}2$ factorial, involving 3 levels of raw full-fat soybean (RFFS; 0, 45 or 75 g/kg of diet) and 2 levels of protease (0 or 15,000 PROT/kg) was used. The birds were raised in a climate-controlled room. A nitrogen-free diet was also offered to a reference group from day 19 to 24 to determine protein and amino acid flow at the terminal ileum and calculate the standardized ileal digestibility of nutrients. On days 10, 24 and 35, body weight and feed leftover were recorded to calculate the body weight gain (BWG), feed intake (FI) and feed conversion ratio (FCR). On day 24, samples of ileal digesta were collected at least from two birds per replicate. Results: When RFFS was increased from 0 to 75 g/kg of diet, the content of trypsin inhibitors was increased from 1747 to 10,193 trypsin inhibitors unit (TIU)/g of diets, and feed consumption of birds was also reduced (P < 0.05). Increasing RFFS level reduced the BWG from hatch 0 to 10 d (P < 0.01) and hatch to 24 d (P < 0.05). The BWG of birds from hatch to 35 was not significantly (P = 0.07) affected. Feed intake was also reduced (P < 0.05) during 0 to 35 d. However, protease supplementation improved (P < 0.05) the BWG and FCR during 0 to 24 d. Rising levels of RFFS increased the weight of pancreas (P < 0.001) and small intestine (P < 0.001) at day 24. Except for methionine, apparent and the corresponding standardized ileal digestibility of CP and AA were reduced (P < 0.01) by increasing levels of RFFS in diets. Conclusion: This study showed that some commercial SBM could be replaced by RFFS in broiler diets, without markedly compromising productivity. The AID and SID of CP and lysine were slightly improved by dietary supplementation of microbial protease.

Cold Tolerance Assessment of Lagerstroemia indica and Pyracantha angustifolia with Dormant Branches (배롱나무와 피라칸사 겨울 휴면지의 내한성 평가)

  • Shin, Chang-Seob
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.118-125
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to check danger of the cold injury by reviewing the lowest temperature by regions and the cold tolerance of Lagerstroemia indica and Pyracantha angustifolia. The cold tolerance of the samples treated at low temperature was evaluated by measuring electrical conductivity and observing browning of the cambium. It was proved that the lethal temperature of L. indica is below $-17.1^{\circ}C$, and that of P. angustifolia is below $-18.9^{\circ}C$. The frequency of the lowest temperature went down below $-17.1^{\circ}C$, was 7 times in Daejeon, 55 times in Cheongju and 72 times in Suwon for the last 45 years. In Daejeon, it has happened only once since 1975. The temperature dropped below $-18.9^{\circ}C$ 45 times in Cheongju and 32 times in Suwon during the same period, but it has not happened at all since 1991. It appears that the rising coefficient of the lowest temperature increases, as the latitude gets higher. As a result, L. indica and P. angustifolia which were planted in the central region of Korea, are considered in danger from freezing injury because the temperature can get very low intermittently in winter. But, the risk of freezing has reduced gradually as the lowest temperature raises each year.

Development of Water Hammer Simulation Model for Safety Assessment of Hydroelectric Power Plant (수력발전설비의 안전도 평가를 위한 수충격 해석 모형 개발)

  • Nam, Myeong Jun;Lee, Jae-Young;Jung, Woo-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.760-767
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    • 2020
  • Sustainable growth of hydroelectric power plants is expected in consideration of climate change and energy security. However, hydroelectric power plants always have a risk of water hammer damage, and safety assurance is very important. The water hammer phenomenon commonly occurs during operations such as rapid opening and closing of the valves and pump/turbine shutdown in pipe systems, which is more common in cases of emergency shutdown. In this study, a computational numerical model was developed using the MOC-FDM scheme to reflect the mechanism of water hammer occurrence. The proposed model was implemented in boundary conditions such as reservoir, pipeline, valve, and pump/turbine conditions and then applied to simulate hypothetical case studies. The analysis results of the model were verified using the analysis results at the main points of the pipe systems. The model produced reasonably good performance and was validated by comparison with the results of the SIMSEN package model. The model could be used as an efficient tool for the safety assessment of hydroelectric power plants based on accurate prediction of transient behavior in the operation of hydropower facilities.

Financial Analyses for Value Maximization of KOSDAQ Listed Firms in Chungcheong Province in the Korean Capital Market (충청권 소재 코스닥 상장 기업들의 가치 극대화를 위한 재무적 요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.440-453
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    • 2020
  • Given the dynamics of the changing economic or financial conditions in Chungcheong province in the domestic capital market, foreign and domestic investments are expected to continually increase their investments in volume and size in this particular province. Considering the unprecedented business climate, it may be essential to examine the primary financial aspects, such as corporate profitability, growth rate, and capital structure, which may work as effective catalysts to enhance corporate value. Concerning the outcomes, five proposed variables, such as market-value based leverage ratio, growth rate, Tobin's Q, business risk, and R&D intensity, highlighted the significant effects to determine the current level of profitability. Moreover, two variables, such as profitability and firm size, shared commonalities to discriminate between firms in the Chungcheong province (96 firms) and their counterparts (746 firms) in the other domestic provinces in terms of the growth rate and financial leverage. In contrast, three variables, including the interaction effect and firm size, had pronounced effects on profitability. The results of the study are expected to help enhance the corporate value in Chungcheong province by controlling the level of each significant factor.

A Study on Estimation of Levee Safety Map for Determining the Priority of River Maintenance (하천 유지관리 우선순위 결정을 위한 제방안전도맵 산정방법 연구)

  • Yoon, Kwang Seok;Kim, Sooyoung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2017
  • Owing to recent climate change, the scale of rainfall tends to increase gradually and the risk of flooding has increased. Therefore, the importance of improving the levee management and disaster response is increasing. Levee management in Korea is carried out at the level of damage recovery after the occurrence of damage. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a technology for predicting and managing the levee safety with proactive river management. In this study, a method to estimate the safety against erosion and overflow was suggested. A map of levee safety that can be used as basic data is presented by displaying the levee safety on the map. The levee erosion safety was calculated as the ratio of the internal and external force for each shore type. The levee overflow safety was calculated as the ratio of the maximum conveyance and design flood. The maximum conveyance was a discharge when the level of the river was equal to the level of the levee crown. The levee safety was classified into 5 grades: very safe, safe, normal, dangerous, and very dangerous. As a research area from downstream of Nam River Dam to Nakdong River Junction, the levee safety against erosion and overflow was estimated for all levees and all cross-sections of the river. The levee safety was displayed on a map using GIS. Through the levee safety map as a result of this study, the levee safety can be observed intuitively. Using the levee safety map, a maintenance plan for a river can be easy to build. This levee safety map can be used to help determine the priority of investment for efficient budget used.