KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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A Study of Power Law Distribution of Korean Disaster and Identification of Focusing Events

한국 재난의 멱함수분포와 사회적 충격사건에 관한 연구

  • 김용균 (국민안전처 재난관리총괄과) ;
  • 김상필 (연세대학교 공학대학 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 조형식 (연세대학교 공학대학 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 손홍규 (연세대학교 공학대학 토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2015.11.13
  • Accepted : 2015.11.23
  • Published : 2016.02.01
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Abstract

Improvements in disaster management has become a global necessity because the magnitude of disasters is intensifying in parallel with the increased disaster damage. The disaster risk in Korea is also increasing due to the emergence of new types of disaster; such as the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, the increase of complex disasters, and the heightened probability of a catastrophic event due to climate change. This paper aimed to identify the disaster loss-frequency relationship from 1948 to 2014 in Korea by using four types of variables. In addition, this paper found major disasters that resulted in the reformation of disaster response organizations, and inputted the deaths and economic loss attributed to those disasters into the disaster loss-frequency graph. The research result substantiated that the disaster loss-frequency relationship in Korea follows the Power Law and found the coefficients of each Power Function. Additionally, this paper found that most of the reformations of disaster response organizations happened after major disasters that concentrated societies attention and anger due to the high human and economic impact; such events are labelled as "focusing events." These focusing events, with the characteristics of a low probability and high impact, are located in the long tail of the Power Law Distribution. This paper suggests that the effective public policy for disaster response needs to be developed by paying attention to 'low probability and high impact' focusing events that are located in the long tail of the Power Law Distribution.

전 세계적으로 재난으로 인한 피해가 증가함에 따라 재난관리에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 21세기 한국사회 역시, 메르스와 같은 신종 재난의 출현, 복합재난의 증가, 기후변화로 인한 재난의 대형화를 경험하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이와 같이 복잡해지고 있는 한국의 재난 패턴을 분석하기 위하여 1948년부터 2014년까지의 한국에서 발생한 자연재난과 사회재난으로 인한 인명 재산 피해와 재난빈도의 관계를 살펴보았다. 또한, 우리나라 재난대응 조직에 변화를 가져온 사건들을 분석하여 멱함수와의 관계를 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 한국의 재난 피해와 빈도 사이의 관계는 멱함수 법칙을 따른다는 것을 확인하였으며, 이를 설명할 수 있는 함수식의 계수를 계산하였다. 이와 더불어, 우리나라 재난대응조직의 변화는 대규모 피해로 사회전반의 관심을 불러일으키는 "사회적 충격사건"들에 의해 유발되었으며, 이러한 사건들은 발생빈도는 낮지만 그 피해규모가 큰 사건들로서 멱함수의 긴 꼬리 부분에 위치한다는 것을 확인하였다. 연구가 갖는 정책적 시사점은 정규분포곡선으로 설명되지 않는 멱함수의 긴 꼬리 부분에 위치한 사건들에 주목하여 재난대응을 위한 정책 수립이나 조직 정비를 해야 한다는 것이다.

Keywords

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