• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.13-30
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• 2020

This study aims to analyze the qualitative and quantitative effects of environmental policies in terms of green space management using logistic regression model(LRM). Landsat satellite imageries in 1985, 1992, 2000, 2008, and 2015 are classified using a hybrid-classification method. Based on these classified maps, logistic regression model having a deforestation tendency of the past is built. Binary green space change map is used for the dependent variable and four explanatory variables are used: distance from green space, distance from settlements, elevation, and slope. The green space map of 2008 and 2015 is predicted using the constructed model. The conservation effect of Ulsan's environmental policies is quantified through the numerical comparison of green area between the predicted and real data. Time-series analysis of green space showed that restoration and destruction of green space are highly related to human activities rather than natural land transition. The effect of green space management policy was spatially-explicit and brought a significant increase in green space. Furthermore, as a result of quantitative analysis, Ulsan's environmental policy had effects of conserving and restoring 111.75㎢ and 175.45㎢ respectively for the periods of eight and fifteen years. Among four variables, slope was the most determinant factor that accounts for the destruction of green space in the city. This study presents logistic regression model as a way of evaluating the effect of environmental policies that have been practiced in the city. It has its significance in that it allows us a comprehensive understanding of the effect by considering every direct and indirect effect from other domains, such as air and water, on green space. We conclude discussing practicability of implementing environmental policy in terms of green space management with the focus on a non-statutory plan.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.159-169
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• 2012

본 연구의 목적은 산림생태계 분포 모델인 HyTAG모델(Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Group)과 기능 모델인 MC1 모델(MAPSS-CENTURY 1) 그리고 사회 환경적 지표를 이용하여 기후변화가 한반도 산림생태계에 미치는 영향을 파악하는 것이다. HyTAG의 식생유형분포 변화 빈도와 방향으로부터 산림식생의 민감성과 적응성을 정량화하였다. 또한 MC1으로부터 추정되는 순일차생산량 및 토양탄소저장량의 변이 및 경향으로부터 산림기능의 민감성과 적응성을 정량화하였다. 사회 환경적 지표로는 재정자주도 또는 산림관련 공무원 수 등과 같은 통계자료를 포함하였다. 모든 지표들을 정규화하고 취약성 평가식에 적용하여 취약성 결과를 도출하였다. 취약성 평가의 시간적 범위는 현재(1971-2000)와 미래(2021-2050)로 구분하였다. 국가 기후변화 정책의 우선순위를 판단하기 위해 지표 별 공간 분포 지도를 작성하고 행정구역간의 취약성을 비교한 결과, 지역별로 취약성의 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 취약성 차이는 적응능력에 따라 가장 크게 좌우되는 것으로 판단되었다. 본 연구의 취약성 평가 방법 및 결과는 산림 경영적 측면에서 의사결정 시스템 개발과 기후변화에 대한 적응정책 수립의 판단 자료로 활용될 것이다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.1647-1661
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• 2011

The Government had devised legislation of Special Act and drew up guidelines for improving air quality in Seoul Metropolitan area. In 2007 local government of Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi conducted the results of application policy by reduced air pollutants emission for the first time. Although there was reduction of air pollutant emission in each local government, it was ineffective as expected using air pollution monitoring database. Therefore we worked out a way to prepare modeling input data using the results of enforcement plan. And we simulated surface $NO_2$ and PM10 before and after decrease in air pollutants emission and examine reduction effects of air pollution according to enforcement regulation except other influence, by using MM5-SMOKE-CMAQ system. Each local government calculated the amount of emission reduction under application policy, and we developed to prepare input data so as to apply to SMOKE system using emission reduction of enforcement plan. Distribution factor of emission reduction were classified into detailed source and fuel codes using code mapping method in order to allocate the decreased emission. The code mapping method also included a way to allocate spatial distribution by CAPSS distribution. According to predicted result using the reduction of NOx emission, $NO_2$ concentration was decreased from 19.1 ppb to 18.0 ppb in Seoul. In Gyeonggi and Incheon $NO^2$ concentrations were down to 0.65 ppb and 0.68 ppb after application of enforcement plan. PM10 concentration was reduced from 18.2 ${\mu}g/m^3$ to 17.5 ${\mu}g/m^3$ in Seoul. In Gyeonggi PM10 concentration was down to 0.51 ${\mu}g/m^3$ and in Incheon PM10 concentration was decreased about 0.47 ${\mu}g/m^3$ which was the lower concentration than any other cities.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.703-720
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• 2019

최근 빈번하게 발생하는 이상기온과 기후변화로 인하여 전력수요의 변동성이 커지고 있으며 기온 영향의 증가와 함께 기온변화에 대한 전력수요의 반응은 비선형성과 비대칭성으로 나타나고 있다. 정부 에너지 정책의 변화와 4차 산업혁명의 전개에 따라 기온 효과를 보다 정확하게 추정하고 예측하는 것은 안정적 전력수급 관리를 위하여 중요한 과제이다. 본 연구는 기온변화에 대한 전력수요의 비선형적 반응에 대하여 부분선형모형을 이용하여 분석하고자 한다. 기온변화와 전력수요의 비선형·비대칭적 관계를 측정하기 위하여 Robinson의 double residual 준모수적 추정과 스플라인 추정을 적용하였다. 기상변수와 전력 소비에 대한 시간 단위 고주기 자료를 사용하여 부분선형모형으로 추정한 기온변화와 전력 소비의 관계는 기존 모수적 모형과는 다른 비선형성과 비대칭성을 갖고 있음을 확인하였다. 부분선형모형을 이용하여 얻은 전력수요에 대한 표본내·표본외 예측은 이차함수 모형과 냉난방도일 모형과 비교하여 우수한 예측력을 보였다. Diebold-Mariano 검정결과, 부분선형모형에서 얻은 예측력 향상은 통계적으로 유의하였다.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.95-105
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• 2020

Air pollution is a global challenge that not only threatens public health, but also takes away lives. Strategic communication, in other words, public relations, is an essential way of tackling air pollution and managing the risks involved. Engaging global citizens into the public sphere requires the building of a sense of collectivity and duty on achieving clean air. Strategies and policies on an international scale that are based on the theoretical framework (Behavior Procedure Model) and focus on leading citizens into the mature and unified Collectivity during the observance of the 'International Day of Clean Air for blue skies' are crucial. Notably, the Asian continent has inevitably found itself at the crossroad between economic growth and environmental protection, and has even been observed to be pursuing a passive response to air pollution. The key communication strategies are supported by the three goals, which include: expanding existing communities and building a new Collectivity, supporting international solidarity and individual member state activities, and implementing systems and structures. The key goals can be further specified into six strategies. This paper has analyzed global problems and discussed possible communication strategies to increase public engagement for the observation of the 'International Day of Clean Air for blue skies.' It will be the responsibility of all nations to implement the aforementioned strategies and policies as well as promoting global action.

• 대한지구과학교육학회지
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2019

기후변화 대응을 공식화하고 보완하는데 있어서 교육의 중요성은 국제 및 국가별 체제, 의제, 전략 및 실행 계획에 의해 널리 인식되어왔다. 기후변화 교육은 기후변화에 대한 최신 정보와 지식에 접근하고 정책 개발을 지원하며 기후 변화 대응의 효과를 높이기 위해 지역 사회의 필요를 충족시킬 수 있는 잠재력을 가지고 있다. 이 연구는 기후변화와 도시화를 교육하교학습하기 위한 적절한 방법 중 하나로 통합 도시 기후 교육 (IUCE)의 혁신적인 모델을 개발하였다. 이 연구에서는 다낭 시 캠르 지역의 IUCE 사례 연구에서 얻은 접근법, 방법론 및 주요 교훈을 제시한다. 이 연구의 결과를 통해 도시 복원력 구축에 효과적으로 기여하는 방식으로 IUCE의 개발 및 구현에 대한 여러 가지 중요한 특성을 확인할 수 있다. 이러한 특성에는 (1) 다차원 접근법, (2) 교사 중심의 기반, (3) 학교 가족 공동체 연결, 그리고 (4) 공생 원리가 포함된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제66권4호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2024

In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficient rainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challenge in accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severe droughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and social damage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implement corresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climate change scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate change mitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics, economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices were calculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario, and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in South Korea.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.1065-1071
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• 2020

The study aims to analyze the supply chain role of supervision, discipline, work climate, and organizational learning on the performance of community services at the public works. This study took a sample of employees through purposive sampling technique at the Public Works Office and Bina Marga in a regency in East Java. Data through questionnaire was collected through a 5-point Likert scale model. The results show that the application of employee discipline affects the performance of public services, with a contribution of 39.7%, meaning that discipline and organizational learning are implementation factors that have an effect on public service performance. In stepwise regression analysis, the supervisory factor has a correlation with service performance, but it is less relevant, while the work climate is not relevant as a predictor variable to improve public service performance. The study revealed the importance of the supply chain policy of implementing good and clean governance and the enactment of the performance appraisal of the government apparatus established through Good Corporate Governance of the state apparatus. The findings provide a basis to encourage the public sector performance to smooth every step of supply chain management of every government project work, especially in the field of public services.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.31-41
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• 2011

This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.9-21
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• 2009

As one of the alternative solution for energy and environmental issues such as climate change, energy security, oil price, etc., hydrogen energy has been getting so much attentions these days. This paper analyzed the $CO_2$ emission, costs, and energy consumptions when the hydrogen energy was introduced to transportation, specifically in Sedan sector using the energy system model, MARKAL. As results, 21.5% of $CO_2$ emission in 2040 could be reduced and additional 76 billion dollars will be needed in the high energy price scenario. The amount of energy saving mainly due to the replacement of existing car to hydrogen vehicle was 16% of the final energy consumption in 2040.