• Title/Summary/Keyword: Choice Simulation

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Development and Test of a Macro Traffic Simulation Model for Urban Traffic Management (도시 간선도로 교통류관리를 위한 교통모형의 개발 및 검증)

  • 이인원
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.79-103
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    • 1995
  • The elasticity of a model is considered most important. Without showing the proper elasticity any model cannot provide useful information for decision making. This paper demonstrates a macro model which can generate dynamic transport informations every 15 minutes. Without the Wardrop principles and the monotonicity assumptions for the link travel time and link volume relationship, the basic elements of this new modeling approache are composed of link density simulation, stochastic incremental route choice, departure time choice, destination choice and mode choice. The elasticity of the proposed model is examined based on elasticity equations and simulation results. Also the transferability from a mega city like Seoul to a big city like Daejon is demonstrated for the choice model. The issues centering around the dynamic relations among density(k), speed(u), and flow rate(v) are also discussed for the modeling of highly congested situations.

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Traffic Assignment Incorporating Route Choice Behavior in Hierachical Highway Structure (도로위계구조를 고려한 노선배정기법에 관한 연구)

  • 김익기;김태중
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 1995
  • Conventional traffic assignment techniques usually do not consider traveler's route choice behavior affected by hierachicla strucfture in urban highway system. This study realizes the route choice behavior such that travelers tend to choose more higher level of highway rather than lower level of highway for longer trops. Otherwise, for shorter trips, travelers tend to choose lower level of highway unless they can get sufficient travel time saving by using mojor arterial street or freeway (higher level of highway). Therefore, this study suggests a traffic assignment technique incorrporating route choice behavior related to hierachical highway structure by introducing some perception costs to generalized cost function such as perceptional preference measureemnt for higher level higheay and perceptional penalty when changing to different level of highway. Through simulation analysis, it is shown that the simulation results with the new traffic assignment echnique can be different a lot from the results with the convential method.

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A Study on a Reasonable Choice of Simulation Model for Rainfall-Runoff in the Prior Review System on Disaster Effect (사전재해영향성검토 시 합리적인 홍수유출 모의모형 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jung-Min;Yun, Jeong-Ran;Kim, Young-Jin;Jin, Kyu-Nam;Han, Hyung-Geun
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2010
  • Urban development is a cause of expansion of impervious area. A permanent storage is operated as a method of reducing runoff of watershed. The purpose of study is to propose reasonable choice of simulation model for rainfall-runoff in the prior review system on disaster effect. First, we indicated problem about concentration time choice in the flood simulation. To test the adequacy of a rainfall-runoff simulation model, We analyzed characteristics of rainfall-runoff about urban and natural watersheds. A simulation model was calibrated with the storm of july 7 to July 9 in 2009. From the result, we proposed that SWMM and kinematic wave method as the flood simulation models for urban and natural watersheds. A simulation model and design method of a permanent storage for flood that is proposed in this study will be useful for practical design of flood simulation. The hydrologic analysis method of the study can be used for capacity evaluation of permanent storage plan.

A Study on the Theme Park Users's Choice behavior: Application of Conjoint Choice Model (Conjoint Choice Model을 이용한 주제공원 이용자들의 선택행동 연구)

  • 홍성권
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2000
  • The purposes of this study are two folds: a) to introduce conjoint choice model to research the choice behavior of theme park users, and b) to suggest the strategies to strengthen the competitiveness of theme parks. The major four theme parks in Seoul metropolitan areas were selected as study areas. A leading polling agency was employed to select 432 respondents by probability sampling and to conduct face-to-face interview. Both alternative generating and choice set generating fractional factorial design were conducted simultaneously to meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for calibration of the conjoint choice model. Dummy coding was used to represent the attribute levels, and the alternative-specific model was calibrated. The goodness-of-fit of the model was quite satisfactory($\rho$$^2$=0.47950), and most parameters values had to expected sign and magnitude. Car was preferred transport mode to shuttle bus for visiting theme parks ; however the most ideal attribute levels only were estimated significantly. Most attribute levels of shuttle bus were estimated significantly except the Dream Land, which is the least attractive park among study areas. Simulation results showed that the shuttle bus was a mode worth providing to switch the current car dominant visiting pattern of theme parks, which will be one the effective strategies to attract more patrons, especially for potential users adjacent to parks. Several ideals were suggested for future researches, in terms of utilization of more general utility function and new base alternative, and inclusion of more salient attributes such as constraints in the model.

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Dynamic OD Estimation with Hybrid Discrete Choice of Traveler Behavior in Transportation Network (복합 통행행태모형을 이용한 동적 기.종점 통행량 추정)

  • Kim, Chae-Man;Jo, Jung-Rae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.6 s.92
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic OD estimating model to overcome the limitation of depicting teal situations in dynamic simulation models based on static OD trip. To estimate dynamic OD matrix we used the hybrid discrete choice model(called the 'Demand Simulation Model'), which combines travel departure time with travel mode and travel path. Using this Demand Simulation Model, we deduced that the traveler chooses the departure time and mode simultaneously, and then choose his/her travel path over the given situation In this paper. we developed a hybrid simulation model by joining a demand simulation model and the supply simulation model (called LiCROSIM-P) which was Previously developed. We simulated the hybrid simulation model for dependent/independent networks which have two origins and one destination. The simulation results showed that AGtt(Average gap expected travel time and simulated travel time) did not converge, but average schedule delay gap converged to a stable state in transportation network consisted of multiple origins and destinations, multiple paths, freeways and some intersections controlled by signal. We present that the hybrid simulation model can estimate dynamic OD and analyze the effectiveness by changing the attributes or the traveler and networks. Thus, the hybrid simulation model can analyze the effectiveness that reflects changing departure times, travel modes and travel paths by demand management Policy, changing network facilities, traffic information supplies. and so on.

Estimation of a Structural Equation Model Including Brand Choice Probabilities (브랜드 선택확률 분석을 위한 구조방정식 모형)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Lee, Hye-Seon;Kim, Yun-Dae;Jun, Chi-Hyuck
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2010
  • The partial least squares (PLS) method is popularly used for estimating the structural equation model, but the existing algorithm may not be directly implemented when probabilities are involved in some constructs or manifest variables. We propose a structural equation model including the brand choice as one construct having brand choice probabilities as its manifest variables. Then, we develop a PLS-based algorithm for the structural equation model by utilizing the multinomial logit model. A case is introduced as an application and simulation studies are performed to validate the proposed algorithm.

Simulation Experimental Analysis on a Seat Inventory Control Problem for Sequential Multiple Flights with Customer Choice Behavior (순차적으로 출발하는 여객노선에서 고객의 의사결정을 고려한 좌석재고 통제문제에 대한 모의실험 분석)

  • Park, Changkyu;Seo, Junyong;Hong, Yunsook
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2013
  • We conduct the future studies suggested by Park and Seo [3]. They considered a seat inventory control problem in which flights depart sequentially during a similar time-interval and passengers purchase available seats depending on individual customer choice behavior. Customer choice behavior can lead to one among a horizontal shift, a diversion-up, and a booking loss when a desired fare class is unavailable. We investigate how seat availability calculation method, booking limit control mechanism, seat inventory capacity, number of booking class, type of seat demand influence on revenues in an airline industry through thorough computer simulation experiments.

Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation

  • Faraway, Julian.;Jhun, Myoungshic
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.99-111
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    • 1995
  • It is shown that the adaptive kernel methods can potentially produce superior density estimates to the fixed one. In using the adaptive estimates, problems pertain to the initial choice of the estimate can be solved by iteration. Also, simultaneous recommended for variety of distributions. Some data-based method for the choice of the parameters are suggested based on simulation study.

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The evaluation of curtain design by simulation method (시뮬레이션을 이용한 커튼 디자인의 평가)

  • 장서윤
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 1995
  • This study is to present various curtain design by simulating method of the 32 case's combination of the styles, the patterns, the colors of curtain design for 50 woman collage students by photo shop program. The major findings of this study can be summarized as follow : The evaluation factors of curtains design was classified into three groups ; emotionality, harmoniousness, stimulus. The best choice to emphasize the atmosphere for "emotionality" of the first factor is curtain with the valance of cloud style, mixed Diagram pattern and ivory color(NO.16). The best choice to emphasize the atmosphere for "harmoniousness" as well as "stimulus" is curtain with the valance of two pieces cloud style, flower pattern and pink color(NO.18). The best choice to emphasize the atmosphere for "emotionality" and "stimulus" as well as "emotionality" and "harmoniousness" is curtain with the valance of natural fold style, stripes pattern and pink color(NO.6). The best choice to emphasize the atmosphere for "harmoney" and "stimulus" is curtain with the valance of two pieces cloud style, flower pattern and pink color(NO.18). The best choice to emphasize the atmosphere for "emotionality", "harmoniousness" and "stimulus" is curtain with the valance of two pieces cloud style, flower pattern and pink color(NO.18).

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Truncation Parameter Selection in Binary Choice Models (이항 선택 모형에서의 절단 모수 선택)

  • Kim, Kwang-Rae;Cho, Kyu-Dong;Koo, Ja-Yong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.811-827
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    • 2010
  • This paper deals with a density estimation method in binary choice models that can be regarded as a statistical inverse problem. We use an orthogonal basis to estimate density function and consider the choice of an appropriate truncation parameter to reflect the model complexity and the prediction accuracy. We propose a data-dependent rule to choose the truncation parameter in the context of binary choice models. A numerical simulation is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.