• Title/Summary/Keyword: Choice Probability

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A Critical Evaluation of Dichotomous Choice Responses in Contingent Valuation Method (양분선택형 조건부가치측정법 응답자료의 실증적 쟁점분석)

  • Eom, Young Sook
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.119-153
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    • 2011
  • This study reviews various aspects of model formulating processes of dichotomous choice responses of the contingent valuation method (CVM), which has been increasingly used in the preliminary feasibility test of Korea public investment projects. The theoretical review emphasizes the consistency between WTP estimation process and WTP measurement process. The empirical analysis suggests that two common parametric models for dichotmous choice responses (RUM and RWTP) and two commonly used probability distributions of random components (probit and logit) resulted in all most the same empirical WTP distributions, as long as the WTP functions are specified to be a linear function of the bid amounts. However, the efficiency gain of DB response compared to SB response were supported on the ground that the two CV responses are derived from the same WTP distribution. Moreover for the exponential WTP function which guarantees the non-negative WTP measures, sample mean WTP were quite different from median WTP if the scale parameter of WTP function turned out to be large.

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Estimating Effects of Attributes on Pizza Restaurant Choice by University Students (대학생들의 피자 전문점 선택에 영향을 미치는 속성에 대한 평가)

  • Kang Jong-Heon;Jeong In-Suk
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to measure the pizza purchasing behavioral characteristics of respondents and importances of factors affecting pizza purchase, to estimate the effects of attributes on pizza restaurant choice, and to predict probability of selecting a particular pizza restaurant The questionnaire consisted of two parts: The paired experimental profiles, purchasing behavior and importances of factors affecting pizza purchase. This study generated profiles of 16 hypothetical pizza restaurant based on the seven attributes. The profiles comprised 16 discrete sets of variables, each of which had two levels. For this study, researcher randomly selected 150 students of university as respondents. Twenty students did not complete the survey instrument, resulting in a final sample size of 129. All estimations were carried out using frequency, correlation, phreg procedure of SAS package. The results were as followed Based on the estimated model, the -2LL(B) statistic for a model with all explanatory variables was 5585.761 and the Chi-square statistic is 134.786 with 7 df (p<0.001). At p<0.001, we would reject the null hypothesis that the attributes do not influence choice. The parameter estimate for price was highest, followed by late delivery time, promised delivery time, money-back guarantee, discount, pizza variety, and pizza temperature. The result from this study suggested that there was an opportunity to increase market share and profit by improving operations so that customers receive discount and money-back guarantee simultaneously, and by reducing price, delivery time.

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Housing Tenure Choice Decisions of Older Households - With Focus on the Physical Features of the Householders - (고연령가구의 주택점유형태 결정요인 분석 : 가구주의 활동제약을 중심으로)

  • Jung, Bo Seon;Cho, Young Kyung;Lee, Sang Youb
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.39-52
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the housing tenure choice decisions of older households, with focus on the activity constraints of the householders. For analysis, the probit model based on the data of the householders over 55 years of age from the 2015 KLIPS data was implemented. The research findings indicate that the ownership choice probability decreases when the head of the household has activity or social activity constraints. If there is an activity restriction, it is considered that the possibility of self-residence will be low due to the increase in medical expenses, the possibility of participation in economic activities will be low, the possibility of early retirement will be high, and the income will decrease. Therefore, if the head of the household has a personal or social activity constraint, such case is more likely to be categorized as falling under the poor residential group. This result suggests that the activity constraint can be utilized as a useful index for the housing welfare policy considering physical vulnerability.

Ability, Heterogeneity, and Parental Choices on Human Capital (이질적 학습능력과 인적자본에 대한 부모의 교육투자 선택)

  • Hwang, Jin-tae;Kim, Sung-min
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.91-114
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    • 2017
  • This paper shows that when children's ability is heterogeneous, a parent's choices about educational expenditures and fertility follow a pooling equilibrium or a separating equilibrium. Which of the two equilibria will prevail depends on the probability of getting a high-ability child as well as productivity differentials in producing children's adult human capital. Adopting the model of Acemoglu's (1999), this paper presents that the outcome of the pooling choice in the pooling regime and the outcome of the separating choice in the separating regime make the growth rate of human capital higher than otherwise. In addition, as the probability of a high-ability child increases, the growth rate of human capital in the separating equilibrium exceeds that in the pooling equilibrium.

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The Spatial Correlation of Mode Choice Behavior based on Smart Card Transit Data in Seoul (교통카드 자료를 이용한 서울시 지역별 대중교통 수단 선택 공간상관성 분석)

  • Park, Man Sik;Eom, JinKi;Heo, Tae-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.623-634
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we provide empirical evidence of whether a spatial correlation among mode choices at the TAZ(Traffic Analysis Zone) level exists based on transit smart card data observed in Seoul, Korea. The results show that the areas with a higher probability that passengers choose to take a bus are clustered and that those regions have fewer metro stations than bus stations. We also found that the spatial correlation turned out to be statistically meaningful and provided an opportunity for the potential use of the spatial correlation in modeling mode choices. A reliable spatial interaction would constitute valuable information for transportation agencies in terms of their route planning and scheduling based on the transit smart card data.

The Effect on Employment of Employment Preparation Activities in College Graduates (전문대학생의 취업준비활동이 취업에 미치는 영향)

  • Choe, Sun-Mi
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.2556-2563
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to find out the employment effectiveness of employment preparation activities that college students experience, especially focused on analyzing employment effects of college employment-related activities such as career choice and employment support program, along with individual preparation activities such as qualification, vocational training, etc. It performed binary logistic regression analysis using 2011 Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey data of 3,249 college graduates. The results showed that In college characteristics, the higher grade point average was and the more college was located in non-metropolitan area, the higher employment probability was. In the case of major field, Medicine, Education, Engineering, Social Science, Natural science in highest first order had employment probability higher than the reference group. The results showed that the number of qualification, interview skill & resume description skill program participation, and job search experience before and after graduation among employment preparation activities had an effect on employment. The rest, that is, vocational training, career employment curriculum, work experience program, career counseling program, employment camp, in-school job experience, employment goal status before graduation did not have an direct effect on employment.

A Quality Game between Producer and Supplier : the effect of the contract terms and the quality related variables on product duality (완성품생산자와 부품공급자의 품질게임 : 품질계약내용 및 품질관련변수가 품질수준에 미치는 영향)

  • 김남영
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2002
  • This paper examines the effect of the producer-supplier quality contract parameters and the magnitude of the quality related variables on the quality of the final products. Our analysis focuses on the parties' equilibrium behavior In a quality game environment where the supplier should choose among the two production technologies, one requiring high cost but producing high quality Parts and the other requiring low cost but producing low quality parts and where the producer should decide whether to do the inspection of the parts. The game framework is employed to depict the potential conflicts existing between the Producer and the supplier because the Producer can not observe the supplier's choice and each party wants the other to bear the cost of producing high quality products. In our model, we specifically consider the competitive situation where the producer competes with a firm producing the same product. We employ the market share attraction model to Incorporate the competitive situation and completely characterize the equilibrium by using the Nash equilibrium concept for the game solution. Our results show that the equilibrium depends on the contract terms and the magnitude of the quality related variables. Compared to the non-competitive situation, the probability of producer's Inspection and the probability of supplier's choosing the high quality technology increases in a competitive situation. This is true even when the competitor's quality is lower than the producer's lowest. As a result, the quality of the final product increases In a competitive situation. And as the failure cost borne by the supplier increases, the probability of choosing the high quality technology Increases and the probability of inspection decreases. The net effect of this results in the decrease of the final product quality.

Reliability Analysis for Nonnormal Distributions Using Multi-Level DOE (다수준 실험계획법을 이용한 비정규 분포의 신뢰도 계산 방법)

  • Choi, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Kwak, Byung-Man
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.840-845
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    • 2004
  • The reliability analysis for nonnormal distributions using the three level DOE(design of experiments) method was developed by Seo and Kwak in 2002. Although this method estimates only up to the first four moments(mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis) of the system response function, the result and the type of probability distribution determined by using the Pearson system are shown very good. However the accuracy is low in case of nonlinear performance function and sometimes, the level calculated is outside of the region in which the random variable is defined. In this article we suggest a modified three level DOE method to overcome these weaknesses and to obtain optimum choice for 3 levels and weights to handle nonnormal distributions. Furthermore we extend it to finding the optimum choice for 5 levels and weights to increase the accuracy in case of nonlinear performance function. A systematic procedure for reliability analysis is then proposed by using the Pearson system.

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The Impact of Divorce on Tenure Choice for Women in Korea (자가점유로 분석한 이혼여성의 주거안정성)

  • Hwang, Jae-Hee;Lee, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.55-66
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    • 2012
  • Present study investigates on the impact of resources and characteristics of the tenure choice for divorced women in Korea. The authors utilize the micro data from the Korea Census (2% sample) provided by the National Statistical Office. The authors apply the bivariate probit model to eliminate selection bias that could incur due to sample selectivity, from a chain of marital disruption and tenure choices. This study starts with a descriptive explanation of homeownership after divorce from 1985 to 2005. It concluded that divorce results in a substantial attrition of homeownership. The authors found that out for many women, divorce initiates a process of downward mobility on the housing ladder. The probability to own housing is much lower for divorced women than for women who are not divorced. The present study concludes by suggesting some policy implications for divorced women who have limited access to housing stability. The authors also suggest some future studies that can compensate the empirical limitations of the present study.

Analysis of Factors Driving the Participation of Small Scale Renewable Power Providers in the Power Brokerage Market (소규모 재생발전사업자의 중개시장참여 촉진요인 분석)

  • Li, Dmitriy;Bae, Jeong Hwan
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.32-42
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    • 2022
  • Rapid spread of intermittent renewable energy has amplified the instability and uncertainty of power systems. The Korea Power Exchange (KPX) promoted efficient management by opening the power brokerage market in 2019. By combining small-scale intermittent renewable energy with a flexible facility through the power brokerage market, the KPX aims to develop a virtual power plant system that will allow the conversion of existing intermittent renewable energy into collective power plants. However, the participation rate of renewable power owners in the power brokerage market is relatively low because other markets such as the small solar power contract market or the Korea Electric Power Corporation power purchase agreement are more profitable. In this study, we used a choice experiment to determine the attributes affecting the participation rate in the power brokerage market for 113 renewable power owners and estimate the value of the power brokerage market. According to the estimation results, a low smart meter installation cost, low profit variations, long contract periods, and few clearances increased the probability of participation. Moreover, the average value of the power brokerage market was estimated to be 2.63 million KRW per power owner.