• Strategy21
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• 통권42호
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• pp.196-223
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• 2017

The aim of this paper is to analyze China's naval strengthening and threat reflected in submarines, aircraft, destroyers and missile capabilities and US Navy's counter-forces. China is strengthening its naval forces in accordance with its three-step naval force build-up plan, and the introduction of Russian destroyers and submarines is a foothold for China's naval enforcement. The Chinese Navy also converted the concept of the First-Second Island Chain Defense, which it had already maintained, to the concept of maritime layer defense. Currently, the Chinese Navy maintains the concept of a Three-Maritime Layer Defense which includes the South China Sea, where artificial islands are being built by China, in the First Layer Defense and the East China Sea in the Third Layer Defense. Along with the advancement of Chinese Navy's submarines, surface vessels and aircraft's operational capabilities, ballistic and cruise missile capabilities become a major threat to the US Navy. If a crisis occurs in the East China Sea or in the Taiwan Waters, the US Navy will face more difficulties in employing the Carrier Strike Group to manage the crisis. Meanwhile, if a crisis occurs on the Korean Peninsula, it will be a burden to dispatch Carrier Strike GroupS to the East and West Seas of the Korean Peninsula. For the stable future, the US Navy should develop a strategy to respond more effectively to the Chinese Navy, which is challenging new maritime supremacy in East Asia.

• 해양안보
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.83-113
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• 2022

중국의 해상 민병대는 긴 역사에 비해 잘 알려지지 않았으나, 최근 주변국과의 다양한 해양 분쟁을 통해 주변국들의 우려와 심각한 위협으로 부상하고 있다. 따라서, 현 시점에서 중국 해상 민병대의 실체에 대한 명확한 이해가 필요할 때이다. 중국 해상 민병대의 편성과 역할 검토를 통해 중국의 해상 민병대는 '중국의 해양이익 보호와 신장을 위한 해상 민병대의 기여'라는 목적에 맞춰 중국 정부와 인민해방군에 의해 조직적으로 관리되고 운용되는 조직이라는 것을 알 수 있었다. 또한, 중국의 해상 민병대가 운용 되었던 주변국과의 해양 분쟁 사례 검토를 통해 이들의 위협요인을 도출할 수 있었다. 첫 번째, 중국 해상 민병대는 '회색지대전략'을 수행하며, 두 번째, 정부와 인민해방군의 지원을 받는 체계화된 조직이다. 세 번째, 전 세계에서 가장 큰 규모의 민병조직으로 간과할 수 없는 해양세력이며, 네 번째, 생업 종사와 해상 민병이라는 이중임무 수행이 가능한 전략적 유연성을 갖추고 있다는 점이다. 중국 해상 민병대의 위협은 남중국해에 위치한 동남아시아 국가들만의 문제가 아니다. 우리나라도 이어도 문제, 서해 해상 경계선 획정 문제 등 중국과의 해양 분쟁에서 자유로울 수만은 없는 국가이다. 따라서 중국과 발생할 수 있는 가장 가능성 높은 2가지 사례에 대해 시나리오 기법 분석을 통해 예상 시나리오와 대응방안을 살펴보았다. 마지막으로, 중국 해상 민병대의 실체를 직시하고 이들이 향후 어떻게 운용 및 발전될 것이며, 우리는 어떻게 대응해 나가야 할 것인지에 대한 고민을 제시하였다.

• Strategy21
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• 통권44호
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• pp.142-176
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• 2018

So far, the main threat to South Korea was North Korea. That is why South Korea established a strategy based on the threat of North Korea and most of the budget on defense was used to deter North Korea. Even though the neighboring countries(China, Japan, and Russia) are growing as a real threat with abilities and intentions based on their powerful naval forces, South Korea has not yet been able to establish a strategy that regards neighboring countries as a threat. But the decades-old structural mechanism of the Korean security environment is undergoing a radical change on April 27, 2018, through the South-North summit and the Panmunjom Declaration. Under the changing security environment, South Korea was placed in a complicated dilemma that had to deal with threats of two axes(China), three axes(China, Japan), and four axes(Japan, Russia). If the one axis threat(North Korea) is dominated by land threats, the second, third and fourth axis threats are threats from the sea. This paper analyzed the maritime strategy of Korea within the framework of maritime-geopolitics, in other words recognition and expansion of the sphere of maritime. I have designed that the maritime defense space that we can deny from threats is divided into three lines of defense: 1 line (radius 3,000km), 2 lines (2,000km), and 3 lines (1,000km). The three defense zones of the three lines were defined as an active defense(1 line), defensive offense(2 line), active offense(3 line). The three defense zones of the three lines were defined as the sphere of core maritime, As a power to deny the sphere of core maritime, it was analyzed as a maneuvering unit, a nuclear-powered submarine, the establishment of missile strategy, and the fortification of islands station. The marine strategy of South Korea with these concepts and means was defined as 'Offensive Maritime Denial Strategy'.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2016

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the development of North Korea's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), and its influence on South Korea's maritime strategy. While research studies on North Korea's ballistic-missile capabilities and South Korea's ballistic-missile defense systems are proliferating, less analytical attention has been given to the way that the strengthening of North Korea's ballistic-missile capacities presents a critical threat to the ROK's navy and lines of communication. The authors of this paper identify the continuing development of unique ASBM capabilities by China and Iran, and determine that such processes are mutually interactive and in accordance with threat perceptions; furthermore, North Korea can enact the same process by learning lessons from these nations. The findings of this paper provide an implication for the formulation of South Korea's maritime strategy and the related assets in consideration of the ASBM as a future threat.

• Strategy21
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• 통권33호
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• pp.37-64
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• 2014

The year 2010 has been regarded as a year of China's assertive diplomacy. A series of China's behavior--including China's critical reaction to the U.S. for its sales of weapons to Taiwan, the Dalai Lama's visit to President Obama, China's arbitrary designation of 'core interests' over the South China Sea, China's inordinate reactions to the sinking of the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong bombardment, and China's activities in the Senkaku/Diaoyu island areas--has served as the witnesses to China's assertive diplomacy in 2010. The major causes of China's assertive diplomacy can be summed up by three factors: potential power transition from U.S. to China; emerging China's nationalism; and the recession of the Tao Guang Yang Hui as a diplomatic principle. But a majority of Western sinologists claim that China's assertive diplomacy is defensive in terms of its character. China's neighboring states, however, perceive its assertive diplomacy as diplomatic threat. Due to these states' geographical proximity and capability gaps with China, these neighbors experience difficulties in coping with China's behavior. In particular, China's coercive economic diplomacy, in which China tends to manipulate the neighbors' economic dependency on China for its diplomatic leverage, is a case in point for China's assertive diplomacy. China's assertiveness seems to be continued even after the inauguration of Xi Jinping government. Although the Xi government's diplomatic rhetorics in "New Type of Great Power Relationship" and the "Convention for Neighboring States Policy" sound friendly and cooperative, its subsequent behavior, like unilateral announcement of Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone (CADIZ), does not conform with its rhetoric. Overall, China's assertiveness has been consolidated as a fashion of its diplomacy, and it is likely to continue in its relations with neighbors. As a neighboring state, the ROK should approach to it with more balanced attitude. In addition, it needs to find out a new diplomatic leverage to deal with China in accordance with its security environment, in which China plays a growing role.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.115-144
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• 2023

特朗普政府时期美国已表明了 "中国是美国的战略竞争者, 也是修正主义势力, 更是对美国繁荣和安全的主要挑战" 这种立场, 拜登政府也基本上继承了这种对中国的认识。中国也对此积极应对。因此, 美中战略竞争已成为当今国际体系中最重要的背景因素, 也对东北亚安全局势产生了巨大的影响。尽管如此, 观察最近韩美日三边安全合作的形成过程时我们可以发现, 尹锡悦总统上台之后韩国的对外战略调整对韩美日三边安全合作的形成起到了关键性作用。这是因为美国一如既往希望构建的韩美日三边安全合作的成败取决于韩日关系的改善, 而尹锡悦政府不顾韩国国内政治的制约因素, 果断推动了韩日关系的快速改善。随后, 在戴维营召开的韩美日三国峰会为未来三国在安全及其他更广泛领域的合作奠定了基础。中国对韩美日三边安全合作的形成提出了强烈的不满和抗议。但本文认为, 韩国虽然同意与美国和日本形成韩美日三边安全合作, 但韩国的战略目标与美国和日本的战略目标都不完全一致。比如, 回顾冷战结束之后的美日同盟发展历程, 美国与日本都对中国的崛起持有类似的看法和认识。最近几年美日同盟加强的实际目标也主要是如何应对中国的崛起。与此相反, 韩国历届政府都对韩美日三边安全合作持消极的态度。这是因为韩国想要追求的最主要的战略目标是如何减少或消除来自北韩的威胁, 而不是应对中国。面对北韩不断增强的挑衅与威胁, 过半数的韩国人支持通过加强韩美日三边安全合作来遏制或缓解来自北韩的威胁。因此, 只要北韩的核威胁与导弹挑衅持续存在, 那韩国的对外战略方向就很可能是加强韩美日三边安全合作, 以确保自身的安全与生存。所以, 如果中国想要减少韩美日三边安全合作给中国带来的战略上的压力, 最好的方案是降低北韩对韩国的挑衅和威胁, 在让北韩放弃核武器的问题上扮演更加实质性的角色。

• 한국과 국제사회
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.39-76
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• 2019

본 논문은 중국의 국방 안보백서 발간의 추이와 함의를 분석하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 중국의 국방 안보백서의 발간경위 및 구성, 시진핑 시기의 국방 안보백서의 요지와 함의의 순서로 살펴본 후 결론을 도출해 본 것이다. 중국 국방부는 1998년 이후 2010년까지 2년 주기로 7권의 "중국의 국방"을 발간했다. 그리고 중국 국방부는 이미 1995년 국방관련 주제의 백서 "중국의 무기통제와 군축"을 처음 발간한 데 이어, 2013년 "중국 무장역량의 다양한 운용", 2015년 "중국의 군사전략"의 3권의 국방관련백서, 그리고 2017년 "중국의 아시아 태평양 안보협력정책"이라는 1권의 안보백서를 발간했다. 모두 중국의 전략적 계산을 반영한 프로파간다라는 공통적 특징을 지니고 있다. 중국이 전향적으로 국방백서를 발간하기 시작한 데는 (1)미국 등 주변국의 군사적 투명성 요구에 대한 압력, (2)'중국위협론'의 불식, (3)중국의 군사 현대화의 성과에 대한 자신감 등 복합적 요인이 작용한 것으로 보인다. "중국의 꿈은 강국의 꿈이고 강국의 꿈은 강군건설이 필수이다."라는 시진핑의 의지가 담긴 '적극적 방어전략' 및 강대강전략은 주변국에게 안보적 우려감을 증폭시키고 있다. 튼튼한 한 미 안보공조관계를 유지 강화해 나가는 한편, 한중경제협력관계도 조화롭게 추진해 나가는 헤징전략이 우리에게 요구된다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.55-79
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• 2013

The objective of this article is to explore the economic relationship between China and the surrounding dynamic Asian economies. It delves into China's influence over the Asian economies and whether this relationship is a market-led or de facto symbiosis. The three principal channels of regional integration analyzed in this article are trade, FDI and vertically integrated production networks. They are essentially based on the activities of the private-sector in these economies. China methodically expanded and deepened its economic ties with the regional neighbors. At the present juncture, China's integration with the surrounding Asia is deep. Another issue that this article explores is the so-called China "threat" or "fear" in Asia. It implies that China is crowding out exports of the other Asian economies in the world market place. Also, as China has become the most attractive FDI destination among the developing countries, it is apprehended that China is receiving FDI at the expense of the Asian economies. These concerns were examined by several empirical studies, and the inference is that they are exaggerated. This article concludes that the private-sector business activities in China and other rapidly growing Asian economies were (and are) instrumental in bringing together the production structures and real economies. The result is both convergence and integration among the dynamic Asian economies. Over the years China and its Asian neighbors has developed a close and symbiotic economic relationship and a de facto regional integration.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.146-163
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• 2021

Purpose - This paper examines China's impact on Korea's ICT exports considering the direct competition channel, the production shift channel, and the indirect demand channel at once. This paper also takes China's economic rebalancing into account and discusses whether it makes any differences in the effect of the three channels. Design/methodology - To quantify the effect of the three channels, I constructed a linear panel regression model and estimated it with various estimation methods including the system GMM. China's exports toward the same destination as Korea's exports, Korea's exports toward China, and the third countries' exports toward China respectively reflect the three channels. China's GVC indicators are included as well to evaluate the effect of further China's economic rebalancing. Since the present paper has a greater interest in the effect of China rather than the determinant of bilateral trade, a (fixed effect) panel model becomes more appropriate than the gravity model because timeinvariant variables in the gravity model, such as the distance and the language, are eliminated during the estimation process. Findings - The estimation results indicate that Chinese ICT exports are complementary to Korea's ICT exports in general. However, when markets are considered in subgroups, China's ICT exports could have a negative effect in the long run, especially for SITC75 and SITC76 markets, implying a possible competitive threat of China. The production shift effect turns significant during China's economic rebalancing in the markets for the advanced economies and the SITC76 product. China's indirect demand channel is also in effect significantly for the advanced economy and SITC75 commodities during China's economic rebalancing periods. In addition, this paper shows that China's transition toward upstream in the global value chain could have a positive impact on Korea's ICT exports, especially at the Asian market. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it focuses on the ICT industry for which Korea increasingly depends on China and China becomes a global hub of the GVC. Second, this paper quantitatively studies three channels in a model in contrast to the literature which mostly examines those channels separately and pays less attention to the GVC aspect. Third, by utilizing relatively recent data from the period of 2001-2017, this paper discusses whether China's economic rebalancing affects the three channels.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.15-17
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• 2016

Purpose - During the past twenty years, China has developed rapidly in economy. Meanwhile China's economic development has brought great many problems. Sustainable development is to achieve coordination in the ecological, economic and social aspects. Among them, the environment and resource issues are the most critical issues which affecting sustainable development in China. With China's rapid economic development, China's ecological environment is facing the most serious threat in water pollution, air pollution, solid waste pollution and the destruction of forests and biodiversity, resulting in a significant loss of the national economy. This research aims to examine whether the tragedy of the commons has hindered the sustainable development of China's economy or not. On the other hand, we try to analyze a solution to improve this situation. Research design, data, and methodology - Theoretical background study, finding optimization models, and data analysis. Results - In the case of a clear definition of property rights, the air will have a market price. The market price will coordinate pollutant emissions. Conclusions - The tragedy of commons has hindered the sustainable development. The model of China's Economic development should be changed.