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Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

Classification of Growth Stages of Business Entities and Management Component Analysis in Forestry Convergence Industry (산림융복합산업 경영체의 성장단계 구분 및 경영요소 분석 연구)

  • Lee, Bohwi;Park, Chang Won;Joung, Dawou;Lee, Chagjun;Lee, Sang-Jin;Kim, Tae-Im;Park, Bum-Jin;Koo, Seungmo;Kim, Sebin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.108 no.3
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    • pp.429-439
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    • 2019
  • The objectives of this study were to gauge the extent of the forestry business through establishing the definition of forestry industry from the perspective of economic convergence and to analyze key components that affect each growth phase of a forestry business entity by classifying them. A total of 1,397 "sixth-sector industry" management entities were certified by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs in South Korea from 2012-2017. Of these, 259 (18.5%) were in the forestry sector. In this study, the 259 forestry management entities were further classified into three phases based on sales distribution: entrance, development, and maturity. The entrance phase (<100 million KRW), development phase (>100 million and <1 billion KRW), and maturity phase (>1 billion KRW) constituted 33.2%, 55.4%, and 12.4% of the total 259 entities, respectively. The results showed that most of the management entities were either in the entrance or development phases, and only a small portion was in the maturity phase. To identify the key variables that affect each of the phases, chi-square analysis was used. We designed the "sixth-sector industry" type as an independent variable, whereas selected region, business organization, manager age group, forest product, processing type, and service type were designated as dependent variables. The results of the analysis showed that the processing and service types influenced all three developmental phases. Moreover, as the phase advanced, processing type showed a higher proportion of health-functional ingredients, such as powder or extract from forest products, which enable to develop and produce a variety of products. Service type also changed from simple experience to integrated experience tourism and finally to tourism education. Distribution and sales channel also turned out to be a significant factor during the development phase. This study provides the basic information needed to guide government support in the implementation of a formal forestry business through convergence as well as to increase the efficiency of business management.

On the Persistence of Warm Eddies in the East Sea (동해 난수성 에디의 장기간 지속에 관하여)

  • JIN, HYUNKEUN;PARK, YOUNG-GYU;PAK, GYUNDO;KIM, YOUNG HO
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.318-331
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    • 2019
  • In this study, comparative analysis is performed on the long-term persisted warm eddies that were generated in 2003 (WE03) and in 2014 (WE14) over the East Sea using the HYCOM reanalysis data. The overshooting of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC) was appeared during the formation period of those warm eddies. The warm eddies were produced in the shallow Korea Plateau region through the interaction of the EKWC and the sub-polar front. In the interior of the both warm eddies, a homogeneous water mass of about $13^{\circ}C$ and 34.1 psu were generated over the upper 150 m depth by the winter mixing. In 2004, the next year of the generation of the WE03, the amount of the inflow through the western channel of the Korea Strait was larger, while the inflow was lesser than its climatology during 2015 corresponding to the development period of the WE14. The above results suggest that the heat and salt are supplied in the warm eddies through the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC), however the amount of the inflow through the Korea Strait has negligible impact on the long-term persistency of the warm eddies. Both of the warm eddies were maintained more than 18 months near Ulleung island, while they have no common feature on the pathways. In the vicinity of the Ulleung basin, large and small eddies are continuously created due to the meandering of the EKWC. The long-term persisted warm eddies in the Ulleung Island seem to be the results of the interaction between the pre-existed eddies located south of the sub-polar front and fresh eddies induced by the meanderings of the EKWC. The conclusion is also in line with the fact that the long-term persisted warm eddies were not always created when the overshooting of the EKWC was appeared.

A Study of the Supply of Large Korean Pine Timber (국산 육송 특대재 수급 현황 분석 및 문화재 수리의 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Younghun;Yun, Hyundo
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.136-149
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    • 2020
  • It is generally believed that Douglas Fir timber imported from North America is used in repair work for Korean wooden heritage sites due to an insufficient supply of extra-large sized Korean pine timber. Based on this understanding in the cultural heritage repair field, Cultural Heritage Repair Business Entities ("CHRBE") prefer North American Douglas Fir timber which is more easily acquired on the market than large Korean pine timber. However, if CHRBE use large quantities of foreign-origin wood in the heritage repair field, this presents the threat of negative domestic impacts on cultural heritage such as breaching the preservation principal and ultimately weakening material authenticity. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the current supply status of large Korean pine timber through examination of existing research, interviews with experts engaged in CHRBE, and timber mills. With this information, the authors seek to identify whether the market supply of large Korean pine timber is indeed insufficient or not. In addition to this, this paper identifies the reasons why large Korean pine timber is not widely used if such timber supply is actually sufficient. In order to propose suggestions regarding the issues above, the authors study the distribution channel for large Korean pine timber and the price spectrum of this timber through examination of price information from the public agencies under the Korea Forest Service, research papers from the Cultural Heritage Administration, and estimation documents from timber mills. This paper also identifies two main opinions about why Korean timber has not been commonly used in the Korean heritage repair field. The first opinion is that the supply of large Korean pine timber really is insufficient in Korea. However, the second opinion is that it is hardly used due to inappropriateness of the government's procurement and estimation system, despite the fact that the supply of the timbers on the market is actually sufficient. Through the aforementioned research, this paper comes to the conclusion that the second opinion has strong grounds in many aspects. In terms of suggestions, alternative routes are proposed to stimulate the use of large Korean pine timber via supply by the 'Korea Foundation for Traditional Architecture and Technology' and surveys of the price spectrum of the timber, etc.

The story structure characteristic of the "Shinbi Apartment" animation and meaning of contents of the traditional ghost story (애니메이션 <신비아파트: 고스트볼의 비밀>의 구성적 특징과 전통귀신담의 콘텐츠화의 의미)

  • Song, So-ra
    • Journal of Korean Classical Literature and Education
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    • no.39
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    • pp.137-180
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    • 2018
  • This article examines the constitutional characteristics of the works in the "Shinbi Apartment" (Mysterious Apartment) series produced by Tooniverse, a domestic animation channel, and considers the meaning of the contents of the ghoststory (鬼神談). The "Shinbi Apartment" series is a horror animation for children. It was produced for the first time in Korea and recorded high ratings. Additionally, it is different from Japanese horror animations that were dubbed and broadcast in Korea in terms of composition and narrative direction, and it succeeds in the form and direction of the traditional Korean ghost story. "Shinbi Apartment - The Secret of Ghost Ball" enriches narrative stories by embracing the structure of the "female ghost story" in traditional ghost stories while following the form of ghosts that suddenly pop up in the daily routines of contemporary ghost stories. The ghost's shape, which has a bizarre and unpredictable aspect, embodies the ghost as the object of fear that modern horror stories intend. However, it does not stop there, but puts the attention on the hero who focuses on the emerging ghost and listens and communicates with it, placing the emphasis of the story on communication, understanding, forgiveness, and reconciliation. The structure and contents of the unique story of "The Secret of Ghost Ball" contribute to the transformation of the ghost into a subject of friendliness and entertainment, not merely as one of shock, fear, and anxiety. Additionally, as the concept of "child" is being created, the custom of modernity, which deals with the story of ghosts in the dimension of teaching and edification, is also manifested in "The Secret of Ghost Ball." In other words, through the figure of the devil, it is to continue the lesson of the story by revealing the adventure, the courage necessary for the "child," and the boundaries for substance and appearance. The "Shinbi Apartment" series has also contributed to the success of ghosts as commercial contents. The structure of the story and its characters have been actively used as educational tools and toys for children. It can be said that ghost culture contributed to this popularization by establishing a base for enjoying ghosts for amusement and entertainment.

Effects of Live Commerce and Show Host Attributes on Purchase Intention: Including the Mediating Effects of Content Flow (라이브 커머스 및 쇼 호스트 특성이 구매의도에 미치는 영향: 콘텐츠 몰입의 매개효과를 포함하여)

  • Kim, Sung Jong;Heo, Chul Moo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.177-191
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    • 2021
  • Due to the development of mobile devices and streaming technology, many changes in consumption patterns have appeared. In addition, social impact is becoming an era of non-face-to-face consumption due to the panthermic environment of COVID-19. Accordingly, in line with the non-face-to-face consumption trend, we focused on the importance of live commerce, which is emerging as a new distribution channel, and tried to investigate the causal relationship that the characteristics of live commerce and show hosts have on purchase intention. The respondents of this study were 235 general adults of live commerce users. Interaction, economics, entertainment as the characteristics of live commerce and attractiveness, professionality, and awareness as the characteristics of show hosts were set as independent variables. Purchase intention was set as the dependent variable, and content flow was set as the mediating variable. As a result of the study, it was found that the characteristics of live commerce such as Interaction, economics, entertainment, and the characteristics of show hosts such as attractiveness, professionality, and awareness all had a positive (+) significant effect on purchase intention. The impact was shown in the following order: entertainment of live commerce, awareness, attractiveness, professionality of show hosts, economics, interaction of live commerce. In addition, the results of the mediating effect of content flow on purchase intention are as follows. Content flow was found to play a mediating role between interaction, entertainment, attractiveness, professionality, awareness and purchase intention. On the other hand, economics was analyzed to have no mediating effect. The implications of this study are as follows. Companies and show hosts that sell products in live commerce should sell products that can inspire consumers rather than simply sell products. In addition, it is considered that content that provides entertainment and attractions gives pleasure to consumers. If not only a well-recognized show host, but also people with high recognition in various fields such as influencers and creators, become show hosts, consumers' content flow and purchase intentions will increase. And vendors must offer interesting content development and reasonable prices. Show hosts need to focus on active communication with consumers.

Influence of Environmental Characteristics on the Community Structure of Benthic Macroinvertebrates in Stream-type Waterways Constructed at Upper Reaches of Guem River (금강 상류 구간 내 샛강형 수로의 서식환경 특성이 저서성 대형무척추동물 군집 구조에 미치는 영향)

  • Son, Se-Hwan;Choi, Jong-Yun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.24-38
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    • 2021
  • Microhabitat In the upper stream is created by various environment variables such as the bottom substrate and the physicochemical factors, and may influence the distribution of benthic macroinvertebrates. We investigated the bottom substrate and environmental variables influencing the distribution of benthic macroinvertebrate in 26 stream-type waterways established at upper reaches of Geum River. During study period, total 85 families, 160 species, 9305 individuals of benthic macroinvertebrates were recorded. The stream-type waterways, where the bottom substrates consist mainly of pebble (16~64 mm) and cobble (64~256 mm) or with rapid water velocity (more than 0.2 m/s) and high dissolved oxygen (more than 120%), were supported by high species diversity of benthic macroinvertebrate. Hierological cluster analysis and the nonparametric multidimensional scale (NMDS) divided 26 stream-type waterways into a total of three clusters. In Cluster 1, the invertebrate species, such as Branchiura sowerbyi, Cloeon dipterum, Ischnura asiatica, Paracercion calamorum, and Radix auricularia, closely related to aquatic macrophytes, and Chironomidae spp., Limnodrilus gotoi, and Tanypodinae sp. were abundant in waterways, with high coverage of silt and clay as well as high turbidity and total nitrogen. The benthic macroinvertebrate species (Cheumatopsyche brevilineata, Drunella ishiyamana, Dugesia japonica, Ephemera orientalis, Gumaga KUa, Macrostemum radiatum, Potamanthus formosus, Semisulcospira libertine, Stenelmis vulgaris, and Teloganopsis punctisetae) included in Cluster 2 were dominated in sites with high cover rates of pebble and gravel. Cluster 3 was predominantly covered by the Cobbles, was supported by Simulium sp. Such a clear distinction in the study sites means that each stream-type waterways is governed by a clear habitat environment. In the case of some sites with low species diversity, improvement measures are required to restore nature, such as improving the function of inflows and outflows, creating meandering channel, and inducing the settlement of littoral vegetation.

Estimation of irrigation return flow from paddy fields on agricultural watersheds (농업유역의 논 관개 회귀수량 추정)

  • Kim, Ha-Young;Nam, Won-Ho;Mun, Young-Sik;An, Hyun-Uk;Kim, Jonggun;Shin, Yongchul;Do, Jong-Won;Lee, Kwang-Ya
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2022
  • Irrigation water supplied to the paddy field is consumed in the amount of evapotranspiration, underground infiltration, and natural and artificial drainage from the paddy field. Irrigation return flow is defined as the excess of irrigation water that is not consumed by evapotranspiration and crop, and which returns to an aquifer by infiltration or drainage. The research on estimating the return flow play an important part in water circulation management of agricultural watershed. However, the return flow rate calculations are needs because the result of calculating return flow is different depending on irrigation channel water loss, analysis methods, and local characteristics. In this study, the irrigation return flow rate of agricultural watershed was estimated using the monitoring and SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) modeling from 2017 to 2020 for the Heungeop reservoir located in Wonju, Gangwon-do. SWMM modeling was performed by weather data and observation data, water of supply and drainage were estimated as the result of SWMM model analysis. The applicability of the SWMM model was verified using RMSE and R-square values. The result of analysis from 2017 to 2020, the average annual quick return flow rate was 53.1%. Based on these results, the analysis of water circulation characteristics can perform, it can be provided as basic data for integrated water management.

Determination of Stream Reach for River Environment Assessment System Using Satellite Image (위성영상을 활용한 하천환경 평가 세구간 설정)

  • Kang, Woochul;Choe, Hun;Jang, Eun-kyung;Ko, Dongwoo;Kang, Joongu;Yeo, Hongkoo
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.179-193
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the use of satellite images for river classification and determination of stream reach, which is the first priority in the river environment assessment system. In the river environment assessment system used in South Korea, it is proposed to set a stream reach by using 10 or 25 times the width of the river based on the result of river classification. First, river classification for the main stream section of Cheongmi stream was performed using various river-related data. The maximum likelihood method was applied for land cover classification. In this study, Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, which is an open data technology with a resolution of 10 m, was used. A total of four satellite images from 2018 was used to consider various flow conditions: February 2 (daily discharge = 2.39 m3/s), May 23 (daily discharge = 15.51 m3/s), June 2 (daily discharge = 3.88 m3/s), and July 7 (daily discharge = 33.61 m3/s). The river widths were estimated from the result of land cover classification to determine stream reach. The results of the assessment reach classification were evaluated using indicators of stream physical environments, including pool diversity, channel sinuosity, and river crossing shape and structure. It is concluded that appropriate flow conditions need to be considered when using satellite images to set up assessment segments for the river environment assessment system.

A Study on Evaluation Method for Structural Suitability of Constructed Wetlands in Dam Reservoirs as an Ecological Water Purification System (생태적 수질정화시설로서 댐 저수지 인공습지의 구조 적정성 평가방안)

  • Bahn, Gwon-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.23-40
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    • 2022
  • Many constructed wetlands have been installed in dam reservoirs nationwide for ecological purification of watershed pollutants, but aging and reduced efficiency are becoming issues. To improve the management of constructed wetlands, an objective evaluation of structural suitability is required. This study evaluated 39 constructed wetlands of 15 dams. First, through fogus group interview(FGI), survey analysis, and analytic hierarchy process(AHP), eight evaluation items in the physical and vegetative aspects were selected and the evaluation criteria applied with weights were prepared. Second, as a result of the structural suitability evaluation, the average score of the overall constructed wetlands was 80.8, with 10 sites rated as 'good grade(91~100)', 22 sites rated as 'normal grade(71~90)' and 7 sites rated as 'poor grade(70 or less)'. The average score of physical structure evaluation was 52.6, with 14 sites rated as 'good', 21 sites as 'normal' and 4 sites as 'poor'. The suitability of location was good level in most constructed wetlands, but the water supply system, depth of water, ratio of length-to-width, and slope of flow channel were evaluated as 'normal' or less in constructed wetlands of 50% or more. Therefore, it was found that overall improvement was necessary for stable flow supply and flow improvement in the constructed wetland. The average score of vegetative structure evaluation was 28.2, and about 84% of them were identified as 'normal' or lower. As a result of analyzing the Spearman's correlation coefficient between the physical structure evaluation score and the vegetation structure evaluation score, there was a significant correlation(r = 0.728, p < 0.001), and it was found that each evaluation factor also influences each other. As a result of the case review of 6 constructed wetlands, the appropriateness of the evaluation results was confirmed, and it was found that the location, flow rate supply, and type of wetland had a great influence on the efficiency and operation of the wetland. Through this study, it will be possible to derive structural weaknesses of constructed wetlands in dam reservoirs as a nature-based solution, to prepare types and practical alternatives for improved management of each constructed wetland in the future, and to contribute to enhancing various environmental functions.