• Title/Summary/Keyword: Change-point model

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Development and Application of the Grid-Distributed Model for Contribution Rate Analysis on Non-point Source Pollution According to Landuse (토지피복별 비점부하량 기여율 해석을 위한 분포형 모델 개발 및 적용)

  • Ahn, Jung-Min;Jung, Kang-Young;Kim, Shin;Lee, Hae-Jin;Shin, Suk-Ho;Yang, Duk-Seok;Shin, Dongseok;Na, Seung-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.78-89
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    • 2017
  • Water quality monitoring network data is being affected continuously due to non-point source pollution arising from agricultural land located on the Gwangsancheon outlet in the Nakdong River basin. In this study, we have performed analysis of water quality monitoring system, water quality pattern using SOM and water quality in the Gwangsancheon for sub-basin located at Gisan-myeon in the Nakdong River basin. We have developed and applied the model to estimate the runoff and non-point source loading. As a result of SOM pattern, the effect of non-point source pollution was the largest in the paddy fields and fields. As a result of the developed model, we found contribution rate and reduction rate for non-point source loading according to change of landuse because the reduction effect of nonpoint pollutants was 20.9% of SS, 9.9% of TN, 21.2% of TP and 8.9% of TOC depending on the landuse change.

2D Finite Element Modeling of Bed Elevation Change in a Curved Channel (유한요소법을 이용한 만곡수로에서의 2차원 하상변동 수치모형)

  • Kim Tae Beom;Choi Sung-Uk;Min Kyung Duck
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.414-418
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    • 2005
  • A finite element model is developed for the numerical simulation of bed elevation change in a curved channel. The SU/PG (Streamline-Upwind/Petrov-Galerkin) method is used to solve 2D shallow water equations and the BG (Bubnov-Galerkin) method is used for the Exner equation. For the time derivative terms, the Crank-Nicolson scheme is used. The developed model is a decoupled model in a sense that the bed elevation does not change simultaneously with the flow during the computational time step. The total load formula with is used for the sediment transport model. The slip conditions are described along the lateral boundaries. The effects of gravity force due to geometry change and the secondary flows in a curved channel are considered in the model. For the verification, the model is applied to two laboratory experiments. The first is $140^{\circ}$ bended channel data at Delft Hydraulics Laboratory and the second is $140^{\circ}$ bended channel data at Laboratory of Fluid Mechanics of the Delft University of Technology. The finite element grid is constructed with linear quadrilateral elements. It is found that the computed results are in good agreement with measured data, showing a point bar at the inner bank and a pool at the outer bank.

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An analytical approach of behavior change for concrete dam by panel data model

  • Gu, Hao;Yang, Meng;Gu, Chongshi;Cao, Wenhan;Huang, Xiaofei;Su, Huaizhi
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.521-531
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    • 2020
  • The behavior variation of concrete dam is investigated, based on a new method for analyzing the data model of concrete dam in service process for the limitation of wavelet transform for solving concrete dam service process model. The study takes into account the time and position of behavior change during the process of concrete dam service. There is no dependence on the effect quantity for overcoming the shortcomings of the traditional identification method. The panel data model is firstly proposed for analyzing the behavior change of composite concrete dam. The change-point theory is used to identify whether the behavior of concrete dams changes during service. The phase space reconstruction technique is used to reconstruct the phase plane of the trend effect component. The time dimension method is used to solve the construction of multi-transformation model of composite panel data. An existing 76.3-m-high dam is used to investigate some key issues on the behavior change. Emphasis is placed on conversion time and location for three time periods consistent with the practical analysis report for evaluating the validity of the analysis method of the behavior variation of concrete dams presented in this paper.

Coefficient change of objective function not change to the basic vector make a optimum solution (최적해를 이루는 기저벡터가 변화를 초래하지 않는 목적함수계수의 변화)

  • 송필준;김정숙
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.58-65
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    • 2002
  • When we estimate the optimal solution satisfy the objective function and subjective equation in the integer programming, The optimal solution of the objective function Z is decided by the positive integer at extreme point or revised extreme point in the convex set. The convex set is made up the linear subjective equation. The purpose of the paper is thus to establish a stepwise optimization in the integer programming model by estimating the variation △C/sub j/ of the constant term C/sub j/ in the linear objective function, after an application of the modified Branch & Bound method.

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A study on water quality change by land use change using HSPF

  • Kim, Tae Geun;Choi, Kyoung-sik
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.123-128
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    • 2020
  • Non-point source pollutant load reductions were calculated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model under the assumption that landuse pattern was changed according to land purchases. Upon the simulation of non-point pollutant and areas with high land purchase ratios to select a buffer zone, the Namgang dam Reach 11, Imha dam Reach 10, and the Reach 136 watershed of the main river were found to rank high for the construction of buffer zones. Assuming that the forms of the purchased lands were changed to wetlands, biological oxygen demand (BOD) loads were changed through the HSPF model. No changes of BOD were present in the Namgang dam and the Imha dam watersheds. BOD loads in Reach 136 according to landuse change were analyzed through a flow duration analysis based on the total maximum daily loads of the United States. The flow duration analyses undertaken to examine changes in BOD of main river Reach 136 watershed indicated a shift of 0.64 kg/d from 3.16 to 2.52 during high flow. The change of BOD under the conditions of moist, mid-range and dry were 11.9%, 9% and 4.5%. At the low flow condition, the variation range in the BOD load was from 0.58 kg/d to 0.41 kg/d.

Bayesian Multiple Change-point Estimation in Normal with EMC

  • Kim, Jae-Hee;Cheon, Soo-Young
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.621-633
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we estimate multiple change-points when the data follow the normal distributions in the Bayesian way. Evolutionary Monte Carlo (EMC) algorithm is applied into general Bayesian model with variable-dimension parameters and shows its usefulness and efficiency as a promising tool especially for computational issues. The method is applied to the humidity data of Seoul and the final model is determined based on BIC.

The Change Point Analysis in Time Series Models

  • Lee, Sang-Yeol
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 2005
  • We consider the problem of testing for parameter changes in time series models based on a cusum test. Although the test procedure is well-established for the mean and variance in time series models, a general parameter case has not been discussed in the literature. Therefore, here we develop a cusum test for parameter change in a more general framework. As an example, we consider the change of the parameters in an RCA(1) model and that of the autocovariances of a linear process. We also consider the variance change test for unstable models with unit roots and GARCH models.

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Time Series Models for Daily Exchange Rate Data (일별 환율데이터에 대한 시계열 모형 적합 및 비교분석)

  • Kim, Bomi;Kim, Jaehee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2013
  • ARIMA and ARIMA+IGARCH models are fitted and compared for daily Korean won/US dollar exchange rate data over 17 years. A linear structural change model and an autoregressive structural change model are fitted for multiple change-point estimation since there seems to be structural change with this data.

An Analytical Model for Predicting Heat Transport with a Sharp Depth Change in Cross-Flow Direction (흐름에 수직한 방향으로 급격한 수심 변화가 존재하는 해역에서의 열오염 이동 예측 해석해 모형)

  • Lee, Ho-Jin;Kim, Young-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.62-72
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    • 2008
  • In this study, an analytical model has been developed to predict the build-up of heat field due to a point heat source in the presence of sharp cross-flow depth change. The model has been applied to investigate the effect of the depth change and flow pattern on the heat field. Model results show that, when there is a sharp depth change in cross-flow direction, the heat transport across the boundary of the depth change is enhanced or diminished according to the increasing or decreasing of the horizontal diffusion flux. Including residual components as well as tidal currents give rise to reduce the effect of the horizontal diffusion on the heat transport because of increasing the advection of heat.

Modified information criterion for testing changes in generalized lambda distribution model based on confidence distribution

  • Ratnasingam, Suthakaran;Buzaianu, Elena;Ning, Wei
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.301-317
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we propose a change point detection procedure based on the modified information criterion in a generalized lambda distribution (GLD) model. Simulations are conducted to obtain empirical critical values of the proposed test statistic. We have also conducted simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods comparing to the log-likelihood method in terms of power, coverage probability, and confidence sets. Our results indicate that, under various conditions, the proposed method modified information criterion (MIC) approach shows good finite sample properties. Furthermore, we propose a new goodness-of-fit testing procedure based on the energy distance to evaluate the asymptotic null distribution of our test statistic. Two real data applications are provided to illustrate the use of the proposed method.