• 제목/요약/키워드: Change-point model

검색결과 742건 처리시간 0.033초

전력회사와 발전사업자 측면에서 도서지역용 마이크로그리드의 경제성평가 알고리즘 (Economic Evaluation Algorithm of Island Micro-grid for Utility and Independent Power Producer)

  • 남양현;이후동;김유림;마리토;김미영;노대석
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제66권7호
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    • pp.1032-1038
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    • 2017
  • Recently, regulation on carbon emissions has been strengthened according to the new climate change convention (COP21) held in Paris, and then Korea has decided to reduce CO2 emissions by 37% until 2030. As one of countermeasures, the government has energetically performed demonstration projects of island micro-grid including solar power, wind power and energy storage system. However, in order to smoothly introduce island micro-grid, it is a critical issue to carry out the economic evaluation for power utility aspect and independent power producer aspect. Therefore, this paper proposes economic evaluation algorithms of island micro-grid which are based on the present worth method, considering cost and benefit factors in the aspect of both sides. Firstly, in case of power utility this paper proposes algorithm to estimate a period of return on investment according to the introduction capacity of distributed generators replacing diesel generator. And also, in case of independent power producer, this paper proposes evaluation algorithm to estimate weighting factor of SMP and benefit rate based on break-even point related with cost and benefit. From a case study result on real island micro-grid model, it is confirmed that proposed algorithms are useful and practical for the economic evaluation of island micro-grid.

Design and Realization of a Digital PV Simulator with a Push-Pull Forward Circuit

  • Zhang, Jike;Wang, Shengtie;Wang, Zhihe;Tian, Lixin
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.444-457
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents the design and realization of a digital PV simulator with a Push-Pull Forward (PPF) circuit based on the principle of modular hardware and configurable software. A PPF circuit is chosen as the main circuit to restrain the magnetic biasing of the core for a DC-DC converter and to reduce the spike of the turn-off voltage across every switch. Control and I/O interface based on a personal computer (PC) and multifunction data acquisition card, can conveniently achieve the data acquisition and configuration of the control algorithm and interface due to the abundant software resources of computers. In addition, the control program developed in Matlab/Simulink can conveniently construct and adjust both the models and parameters. It can also run in real-time under the external mode of Simulink by loading the modules of the Real-Time Windows Target. The mathematic models of the Push-Pull Forward circuit and the digital PV simulator are established in this paper by the state-space averaging method. The pole-zero cancellation technique is employed and then its controller parameters are systematically designed based on the performance analysis of the root loci of the closed current loop with $k_i$ and $R_L$ as variables. A fuzzy PI controller based on the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model is applied to regulate the controller parameters self-adaptively according to the change of $R_L$ and the operating point of the PV simulator to match the controller parameters with $R_L$. The stationary and dynamic performances of the PV simulator are tested by experiments, and the experimental results show that the PV simulator has the merits of a wide effective working range, high steady-state accuracy and good dynamic performances.

신설 석유화학 공장의 소음도 예측 (Prediction of the Noise Levels for a Newly-founded Petrochemical Plant)

  • 윤세철;이해경
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 1996
  • Prolonged in-plant personnel exposure to high noise levels results in permant hearing damage. There are no way to correct this hearing damage by treatment or use of hearing aids. Therefore, every employer is responsible for providing a workplace free of such hazards as excessive noise. This study was carried out to evalute and predict a given noise environment based on specific limit as the noise guarantee for a newly-founded petrochemical plant. The maximum total sound level should not exceed 85dBA in the work area, except where the area is defined as a restricted area and 70dBA at the plant boundary. Prediction of the noise levels within the plant area for a newly-founded petrochemical plant was achieved by dividing all plant area into 20m$\times$20m regular grid spaces and noise level inside the area or unit that in-plant personel exposure to high noise levels was estimated computed into 5m$\times$5m regular grid spaces. The noise level at the grid point that was propagated from each of the noise sources(equipments) computed using the methematical formula was defined as follows : $SPL_2$=$SPL_1-20log{\frac{r_2}{r_1}}$(dB) where $SPL_1$ =sound pressure level at distance $r_1$ from the source $SPL_2$=sound pressure level at distance $r_2$ from the source As a result, the equipments exceeded noise limit or irritaring noise levels were identified on the specific grid coordinates. As for equipments in the area that show high noise levels, appropriate counter-measures for noise control (by barriers, enclosure, silencers, or the change of equipments, for example) should be reviewed. Methods for identifying sources of noise applied in this study should be the model for prediction of the noise levels for any newly-founded plant.

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황견에서 좌측 폐이식수술 및 폐동맥결찰 수술후 폐동맥압 변하에 관한 연구 (The Change of Pulmonary Arterial Pressures after Left Lung Transplantation and Ligation of Right Pulmonary Artery in Dogs)

  • 이두연
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 1994
  • We have performed left lung transplantation followed by ligation of right pulmonary artery in 14 dogs at the Chest Disease Research Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine from May 1992 to February 1994. Excised left lung was perfused with 1500cc of 4$^{\circ}$C cold Euro-Collin`s[E-C] solution at a pressure of 30cmH2O through main pulmonary artery and preserved in 4$^{\circ}$C cold E-C solution for one hour. Left lung transplantation were proceeded in order of left atrium, left main bronchus, left pulmonary artery and right pulmonary artery ligation as usual method. The femoral artery and pulmonary artery pressures were monitored for more than 5 hours after the transplantations in 14 dogs. Six recipient dogs had elevated mean pulmonary artery pressure to greater than 30mmHg after the left lung transplantation and ligation of right pulmonary artery. The cause of elevated mean pulmonary artery pressure was due to inadequate preservation resulting in ischemic damage to donor lungs in 3 cases, and inadequate surgical techniques in 3 cases. Two recipient dogs without surgical complications died immediate post-operatively due to hemorrhagic shock. The bleeding focuses were LA anastomotic site in one case and femoral artery puncture site in another case. The remaining 6 recipient dogs showed mean pulmonary arterial pressure less than 30mmHg. However, one dog had spontaneous pneumothorax in post-operative 4 days, and another dog had rejection phenomenon in post-operative 5 days which was confirmed by pathologic findings of extracted transplanted lung. One dog succumbed of severe hemoptysis which was due to lung abscess with pin point stenosis of bronchial anastomosis in post-operative 38 days. In conclusion, elevated mean pulmonary arterial pressure greater than 30mmHg in immediate postoperative period can be due to inadequate preservation of extracted lung or poor surgical techniques. And the two dogs succumbed of hemorrhagic shock even though the mean pulmonary arterial pressure was less than 30mmHg. It is thought that careful preservation of the extracted donor lung in 4oC E-C solution and complete surgical techniques are the most important factors early and late complications.

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Bayesian 회귀분석과 변동점 분석을 이용한 수위-유량 관계곡선 불확실성 분석 (Uncertainty Analysis of Stage-Discharge Curve Based on Bayesian Regression Model Coupled with Change-Point Analysis)

  • 권현한;김장경
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.364-364
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    • 2012
  • 수자원 연구의 주요 목적인 효과적인 홍수 및 가뭄관리를 하기 위해서는 그 연구의 기초가 되는 자료를 관측하고 정도(accuracy, 精度)를 향상시키는 연구 또한 매우 중요한 부분이라고 볼 수 있다. 이러한 점에서 수위-유량측정의 경우, 관측자의 숙련도와 계측기 오차에 따라 관측값에 미치는 영향이 큰 특징을 갖고 있어 유량측정의 정확성을 높이고자 진보된 계측기의 개발 및 분석 방법에 관한 연구는 꾸준히 진행되고 있다. 일반적으로 유량을 추정하기 위해서 특정 단면에서의 수위를 측정하여 이를 수위-유량 관계곡선을 통해서 유량으로 환산하고, 수위-유량 관계를 측정한 후 이를 회귀분석 방법으로 내삽 및 외삽을 실시하여 유량을 측정하게 된다. 그러나 수위-유량 관계곡선에서 저수위와 고수위를 하나의 곡선식으로 하게 되는 경우 정도가 낮아지게 되므로 많은 경우에 있어서 저수위, 고수위를 각각의 곡선으로 구하여 사용하고 있다. 문제는 이러한 경우 정량적으로 변곡점을 구하기보다는 경험적으로 저수위와 고수위를 구분하고 있으며, 수위-유량관계를 회귀식에 의해서 추정하게 되므로 이에 대한 불확실성이 발생하게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 불확실성을 정량화시키기 위한 방법으로 Bayesian MCMC 기법을 활용하며 수위-유량 관계곡선식의 매개변수들의 사후분포를 추정하여 매개변수의 최적화 및 불확실성을 평가하였다. 앞서 언급되었듯이 저수위 및 고수위로 분리하여 수위-유량 곡선식을 도출하고 있으나 저수위 및 고수위를 분리하는 기준이 경험적이기 때문에 신뢰성이 저해되는 문제점이 발생한다. 본 연구에서는 수위-유량 곡선식의 매개변수들을 최적화 하는 동시에 Poisson 분포 기반의 변동점 분석이 연동되어 저수위 및 고수위를 분리할 수 있는 Bayesian 기반 통합 수위-유량 곡선 해석 방법을 개발하고자 한다.

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높은 입사 음압에서의 미세 천공판을 이용한 흡음 기구의 설계 (Design of a Micro-perforated Panel Absorber at High Incident Sound Pressure)

  • 박순홍;서상현;장영순
    • 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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    • 제20권10호
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    • pp.983-990
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    • 2010
  • Reduction of acoustic loads of space launch vehicles can be achieved by acoustic absorbers satisfying strict cleanness requirements. This limited the use of general porous materials and requires non-porous sound absorbers. Micro-perforated panel absorbers(MPPA) is one of promising sound absorbers satisfying the cleanness requirement for launch vehicles. However, its applicability was limited to low sound pressure levels according to the acoustic impedance model of micro-perforated panels. In this paper the applicability of micro-perforated panel absorbers at high incident sound pressure was investigated in experimental ways. The absorption characteristics of a micro-perforated panel absorber was simulated according to its design variables, e.g., minute hole diameters and aperture ratios. It was shown that optimal design can be readily done by using proposed design charts. Experiments were conducted to measure acoustic properties of the designed micro-perforated panel absorbers. The results showed that acoustic resistance increases rapidly as incident sound pressure level does but change of acoustic reactance can be neglected in a practical point of view. This caused the decrease of peak value of absorption coefficient at high incident sound pressure level, but the amount of reduction can be accepted in practice. The major advantage of the micro-perforated panel absorber(wide absorption bandwidth) was still kept at high sound pressure level.

영동지역 기상조건이 구름 및 강설 모의에 미치는 영향: 이상 실험 기반의 사례 연구 (Effects of Meteorological Conditions on Cloud and Snowfall Simulations in the Yeongdong Region: A Case Study Based on Ideal Experiments)

  • 김유준;안보영;김백조;김승범
    • 대기
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.445-459
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    • 2021
  • This study uses a cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) to understand the individual effect of determinant meteorological factors on snowfall characteristics in the Yeongdong region based on the rawinsonde soundings for two snowfall cases that occurred on 23 February (Episode 1) and 13 December (Episode 2) 2016; one has a single-layered cloud and the other has two-layered cloud structure. The observed cloud and precipitation (snow crystal) features were well represented by a CReSS model. The first ideal experiment with a decrease in low-level temperature for Episode 1 indicates that total precipitation amount was decreased by 19% (26~27% in graupel and 53~67% in snow) compared with the control experiment. In the ideal experiment that the upper-level wind direction was changed from westerly to easterly, although total precipitation was decreased for Episode 1, precipitation was intensified over the southwestern side (specifically in terrain experiment) of the sounding point (128.855°E, 37.805°N). In contrast, the precipitation for Episode 2 was increased by 2.3 times greater than the control experiment under terrain condition. The experimental results imply that the low-level temperature and upper-level dynamics could change the location and characteristics of precipitation in the Yeongdong region. However, the difference in precipitation between the single-layered experiment and control (two-layered) experiment for Episode 2 was negligible to attribute it to the effect of upper-level cloud. The current results could be used for the development of guidance of snowfall forecast in this region.

상태기반 유지보수 기법을 적용한 차량고장 진단 및 예측 시스템 연구 (A Study on the Diagonosis and Prediction System of Vehicle Faults Using Condition Based Maintenance Technique)

  • 송길종;임재중
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.80-95
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    • 2019
  • 최근 들어 센서 및 통신기술의 발달로 국내외 연구자들은 장비나 시스템의 상태정보를 수집하여 진단 및 예측 기법을 통한 유지보수를 결정하는 방법론에 대해 연구를 활발히 진행하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 연구 문헌 고찰을 통해 현시점의 차량부품 상태를 바탕으로 미래 시점까지의 차량부품 상태변화 추이를 예측하여 유지보수 의사결정을 수행하는 시스템 프레임워크를 제시하였다. 또한, 유지보수 활동에 따른 전과 후의 차량부품 상태변화 추적을 통해서 상태 진단 및 예측 데이터 조정이 가능하도록 구성하였다. 향후 본 연구 결과의 적용을 통해 대중버스를 이용하는 시민들의 안전과 차량의 상태기반 유지보수 체계 활성화에 조금이나마 기여할 수 있기를 기대한다.

Directions of mandibular canal displacement in ameloblastoma: A computed tomography mirrored-method analysis

  • Evangelista, Karine;Cardoso, Lincoln;Toledo, Italo;Gasperini, Giovanni;Valladares-Neto, Jose;Cevidanes, Lucia Helena Soares;de Oliveira Ruellas, Antonio Carlos;Silva, Maria Alves Garcia
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • 제51권1호
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study was performed to investigate mandibular canal displacement in patients with ameloblastoma using a 3-dimensional mirrored-model analysis. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of computed tomographic scans of patients with ameloblastoma (n=10) and healthy controls (n=20). The amount of mandibular canal asymmetry was recorded as a continuous variable, while the buccolingual (yaw) and supero-inferior (pitch) directions of displacement were classified as categorical variables. The t-test for independent samples and the Fisher exact test were used to compare groups in terms of differences between sides and the presence of asymmetric inclinations, respectively (P<0.05). Results: The length of the mandibular canal was similar on both sides in both groups. The ameloblastoma group presented more lateral (2.40±4.16 mm) and inferior (-1.97±1.92 mm) positions of the mental foramen, and a more buccal (1.09±2.75 mm) position of the middle canal point on the lesion side. Displacement of the mandibular canal tended to be found in the anterior region in patients with ameloblastoma, occurring toward the buccal and inferior directions in 60% and 70% of ameloblastoma patients, respectively. Conclusion: Mandibular canal displacement due to ameloblastoma could be detected by this superimposed mirrored method, and displacement was more prevalent toward the inferior and buccal directions. This displacement affected the mental foramen position, but did not lead to a change in the length of the mandibular canal. The control group presented no mandibular canal displacement.

Intra-articular replacement of a ruptured cranial cruciate ligament using the Mini-TightRope in the dog: a preliminary study

  • Pinna, Stefania;Lanzi, Francesco;Tassani, Chiara;Mian, Giacomo
    • Journal of Veterinary Science
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.53.1-53.12
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    • 2020
  • Background: The TightRope System is a device developed to provide extracapsular stabilization of the cranial cruciate ligament (CCL) rupture in canine stifles. I was then also employed for the extra-articular treatment of shoulder instability and for the intra-articular treatment of hip luxation in dogs and cats. Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility of the Mini-TightRope (mTR) System for the intraarticular treatment of CCL rupture in small breed dogs. Methods: A cadaveric canine model was used to record the steps of the surgical procedure. Five client owned dogs weighing from 8 to 10 kg and from 2 to 12 years of age were enrolled in the prospective study in which the mTR device was implanted in the stifle joint to replace the ruptured CCL. The dogs were graded using the Bologna Healing Stifle Injury Index (BHSII) and radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) scores. Results: The outcomes obtained at the time of the surgery (T0) and for the following 12 months (T12) showed an improvement in the functional parameters (BHSII from a median of 74.3 [range, 58.1-82.4] at T0 to 95.6 [range, 94.1-99.3] at T12]). The OA did not change in 3 dogs and increased by only 1 point in 2 dogs. Conclusions: In this preliminary study, the mTR was a successful and repeatable intraarticular surgical procedure for all dogs. Additional studies related to the clinical application of the technique in medium-large dogs should be encouraged.