• 제목/요약/키워드: Change-point analysis

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가변 고장메카니즘을 가진 가속수명시험 데이타 분석방법 (An Analysis Method of Accelerated Life Test Data with a Change of Failure Mechanism)

  • 원영철;공명복
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.39-51
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    • 1994
  • Almost all accelerated life tests assume that no basic failure mechanism changes within the test stresses. But accelerated life test, considering failure mechanism changes, is needed since failure mechanism changes when accelerating beyond the used stress. This paper studies the analysis when the failure mechanism changes within the test stresses. The piecewise linear regression, which the join point of two lines is estimated, is applied In particular, two accelerated life tests, with and without a change in failure mechanism are examined.

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선반용 급속 교환 파워 척의 구조해석 및 성능평가 (Structural Analysis and Performance Evaluation of Quick Change Power Chuck for Lathe Operations)

  • 유중학
    • 한국생산제조학회지
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.90-95
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    • 1999
  • Chucking for workpieces is very important for productivity and efficiency in lathe operations. In point of productivity top jaws of the chuck should be changed as quickly as possible in order to reduce idle times wherever workpieces are regripped. A quick change power chuck which can change top jaws quickly by using a jaw change handle without any assembly/disassembly processes of screws is analyzed for this study. strength and stiffness of top jaws by centrifugal force are considered for the design. Structural analysis for the chuck is executed and the finite element method is introduced using MSC/NASTRAN software. Also, the performance of the chuck is evaluated by experiments.

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고속도로 합류구간 첨단 차로변경 보조 시스템 개발 : 최적 차로변경 시작 지점 Positioning 알고리즘 (Advanced Lane Change Assist System for Automatic Vehicle Control in Merging Sections : An algorithm for Optimal Lane Change Start Point Positioning)

  • 김진수;정진한;유성현;박장현;장경영
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.9-23
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    • 2015
  • 차로변경은 운전자의 숙련된 주변인식 및 운전기술이 요구되어 심각한 교통사고를 야기한다. 그리하여 우리는 불가피한 차로변경이 대두되는 고속도로 합류구간에서 본선으로 합류하는 차량의 차로변경을 보조하는 차량 자동제어 시스템 (ALCAS; Advanced Lane Change Assist System)을 개발한다. 본 연구에서는 ALCAS 중 조향이 수행되기 이전에 최적 차로변경 시작지점(Optimal Lane Change Start Point; OLCSP)을 생성하고 그 지점까지 도달하는 종방향 제어 알고리즘 개발에 초점을 두었다. 이를 위해 우선 고속도로 합류구간의 차로변경 행태를 분석하였고, 실제 차량의 가속도 함수 형태를 통해 차로변경 특징모형(Lane Change Feature Model)을 설계하였다. 그 후 차로변경 수행 단계를 정립하였으며, 이 알고리즘 성능과 타당성을 검증하기 위하여 다양한 주변차량 주행환경에 따른 시나리오 시험을 수행하였다. 또한 개발된 알고리즘의 효과를 미시적 교통류 시뮬레이션 (VISSIM)을 통해 확인하였다. 개발한 알고리즘을 합류차량에 적용한 결과 안정류 상태에서 합류성능이 두드러지게 개선되는 것을 확인하였다. 이 차량 자동제어 시스템은 교통 자동차 분야 융합기술의 일환으로 개발되었으며, 운전자의 부하와 오류를 감소시켜 효율성과 안전성을 향상시킬 뿐만 아니라 교통류의 안정성, 임계용량, 주행 효율성의 증대로 사회비용 감소를 기대할 수 있다.

양식 넙치가격 변동성의 구조변화와 비대칭성 검증 (Tests for the Structure Change and Asymmetry of Price Volatility in Farming Olive Flounder)

  • 강석규
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제45권2호
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2014
  • This study is to analyse the timing of the structural change of price volatility and the asymmetry of price volatility during the period before and after the timing of the structural change of price volatility using Jeju Farming Olive Flounder's production area market price data from January 1, 2007 to June 30, 2013. The analysis methods of Quandt-Andrews break point test and Threshold GARCH model are employed. The empirical results of this study are summarized as follows: First, the result of Quandt-Andrews break point test shows that a single structural change in price volatility occurred on May 4, 2010 over the sample period. Second, during the period before structural change, daily price change rate has averagely positive value which means price increase, but during the period after structural change daily price change rate has averagely negative value which means price decrease. Also, daily volatility of price change rate during the period before structural change is higher than during the period after structural change. This indicates that price volatility decreases after structural change. Third, the estimation results of Threshold GARCH Model show that the volatility response against price increase is larger during the period after structural change than during the period before structural change. Also the result shows the volatility response against price decrease is larger during the period after structural change than during the period before structural change. And, irrespective of the timing of structural change, price increase has an larger effect on volatility than price decrease. This means volatility is asymmetric at price increase.

AR(1) 모형에서 분산변화점의 탐지절차 (A detection procedure for a variance change points in AR(1) models)

  • 류귀열;조신섭
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 1987
  • 일반적으로 시계열 자료의 분석은 시간에 대한 모수들의 정상성가정(stationary assumption)하에서 이루어지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 예측하기 힘든 시점에서 분산들이 변화할 수 있는 AR(1) 모형에서 분산의 변화점(variance ahange point)을 추정하는 방법을 제안했으며 모의자료 및 실제자료를 이용하여 다른 방법들과 비교하여 보았다.

Bayesian Analysis for Multiple Change-point hazard Rate Models

  • Jeong, Kwangmo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.801-812
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    • 1999
  • Change-point hazard rate models arise for example in applying "burn-in" techniques to screen defective items and in studing times until undesirable side effects occur in clinical trials. Sometimes in screening defectives it might be sensible to model two stages of burn-in. In a clinical trial there might be an initial hazard rate for a side effect which after a period of time changes to an intermediate hazard rate before settling into a long term hazard rate. In this paper we consider the multiple change points hazard rate model. The classical approach's asymptotics can be poor for the small to all moderate sample sizes often encountered in practice. We propose a Bayesian approach avoiding asymptotics to provide more reliable inference conditional only upon the data actually observed. The Bayesian models can be fitted using simulation methods. Model comparison is made using recently developed Bayesian model selection criteria. The above methodology is applied to a generated data and to a generated data and the Lawless(1982) failure times of electrical insulation.

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항바이러스제가 단백질의 구조적 거동에 미치는 영향에 대한 유한요소법 기반 분석

  • 윤기석;김재훈
    • EDISON SW 활용 경진대회 논문집
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    • 제4회(2015년)
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    • pp.212-216
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    • 2015
  • Oseltamivir, also known as Tamifu, is an inhibitor of neuraminidase protein which plays an essential role in proliferation and replication of influenza virus. Binding to the active site of neuraminidase, the oseltamivir prevents the protein from enzyme reaction. Conformational change of the protein(neuraminidase) should be accompanied by the enzyme reaction, but the drug inhibits the protein to deform. In this study, we examine the influence of oseltamivir on protein's conformational change in the structural and mechanical point of view. Finite element analysis of the protein can be an useful approach to investigate the influence of oseltamivir on the deformation of a protein. We suggest the finite element based protein model, and then perform the linear static analysis with the displacement loading condition based on the first two largest motion which can be obtained from the normal mode analysis. The results show that it takes more energy to change shape of the protein with an oseltamivir attached than the protein without an oseltamivir.

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표면영상유속계(SIV)를 활용한 홍수유출량 산정 시 참조점 설정에 따른 오차율 분석 (Error Rate Analysis according to Setting of the Reference Point for Calculating the Flood Runoff that using Surface Image Velocimeter (SIV))

  • 김용석;양성기
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.799-815
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    • 2016
  • In this study, according to the reference setting based on the runoff video of 9:00 where the highest water level of 3.94 m has been recorded during the runoff of Cheon-mi Stream in Jeju Island by the attack of Typhoon no. 16 Sanba on September $17^{th}$, 2012, the error rate of long-distance and short-distance velocimetry and real-distance change rate by input error have been calculated and the input range value of reference point by stream has been suggested. In the reference setting process, if a long-distance reference point input error occurs, the real-distance change rate of 0.35 m in the x-axis direction and 1.35 m in y-axis direction is incurred by the subtle input error of 2~11 pixels, and if a short-distance reference point input error occurs, the real-distance change rate of 0.02 m in the x-axis direction and 0.81 m in y-axis direction is incurred by the subtle input error of 1~11 pixels. According to the long-distance reference point setting variable, the velocity error rate showed the range of fluctuation of at least 14.36% to at most 76.06%, and when calculating flux, it showed a great range of fluctuation of at least 20.48% to at most 78.81%.

물리치료학과 교육과정 연구 (A Study of Physical Therapy Curriculum)

  • 김은주;남재만;이승민;배성수
    • The Journal of Korean Physical Therapy
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.241-251
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    • 1998
  • This research has been studied proper physical therapy curriculum to produce 21 century physical therapist according to the change of the times by industrialization and specialization. The curriculums of 13 colleges and 5 universities was analysed. The curriculum analysis was made up the comparision and the analysis by a liberal arts point the teaching profession point a major point a clinical practice paint the rates of total opening subjects. The analyzing results were as follows: 1. A point of the credits a liberal elective subject is the small number 2. To deeping of major by spreading major foundation 3. Lack of the time for the clinical practice education.

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