• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.31-65
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• 2012

We study the sustainability of the current fiscal policy of Korea, and the effects of the social welfare policy expansion, which has been recently discussed among the political circles, on the government budget and the generational equity, using generational accounting. We follow the generational accounting approach, considering the fact that most of the social welfare policies are the entitlement programs, which imposes the limitation of the policy maker's discretion to control the cost of their provision. The social welfare expenditure will change due to the change in the policy environments of the future, such as population aging. Therefore, we need to take into account the government cash flow of the future as well as of the present to investigate its effects on the fiscal sustainability, which implies that the national debt or the budget balance is not a proper index for the investigation. Our findings are as follows. The current fiscal policies are not sustainable, and the long-term budgetary imbalance is shown very serious. The required tax adjustment, which is defined as the percentage change of tax burden required to attain the long-term budgetary balance, is very large. Unless the level of the government expenditure is properly controlled, the tax burden and the social contribution level will rise to the untolerable level. Moreover, the expansion of the social welfare policies, which has been discussed among the political circles, will substantially increase the fiscal burden of the future generations. Even though the provision of the free lunch to the primary and the secondary school students, the free child care, and the discounted college tuition do not increase the fiscal burden much, because their magnitude at present is not large and will decrease due to the decrease in the number of the newborns and the students resulting from the fall in the fertility rate, that of the free health care service will increase tax burden of the future generations very much, because the magnitude of the government expenditure needed at present is very large and the population aging will further increase the magnitude of the health care expenditure. The findings indicate that the structural reforms, to prevent the explosive increase in the social welfare expenditure in the future, are necessary before the implementation of the welfare policy expansion. In particular, the cost control of the social transfers to the elderly needs to be made, because the speed of the population aging of Korea is among the highest in the world. The findings also indicate that the budget balance or the national debt can cause the fiscal illusion, which makes the Korean government budget look sound, even though the fiscal policy will rapidly increase the social welfare expenditure in the future, as the population ages. The generational accounting, which takes into account the cash flow of the future as well as of the present, unlike the budgetary balance and the national debt, which shows the results of the government financial activities of the past and the present, is a useful method to overcome the fiscal illusion.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.177-198
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• 2018

Recently, as economic property it has become necessary to acquire and utilize the framework for water resource measurement and performance management as the property of water resources changes to hold "public property". To date, the evaluation of water technology has been carried out by feasibility study analysis or technology assessment based on net present value (NPV) or benefit-to-cost (B/C) effect, however it is not yet systemized in terms of valuation models to objectively assess an economic value of technology-based business to receive diffusion and feedback of research outcomes. Therefore, K-water (known as a government-supported public company in Korea) company feels the necessity to establish a technology valuation framework suitable for technical characteristics of water resources fields in charge and verify an exemplified case applied to the technology. The K-water evaluation technology applied to this study, as a public interest goods, can be used as a tool to measure the value and achievement contributed to society and to manage them. Therefore, by calculating the value in which the subject technology contributed to the entire society as a public resource, we make use of it as a basis information for the advertising medium of performance on the influence effect of the benefits or the necessity of cost input, and then secure the legitimacy for large-scale R&D cost input in terms of the characteristics of public technology. Hence, K-water company, one of the public corporation in Korea which deals with public goods of 'water resources', will be able to establish a commercialization strategy for business operation and prepare for a basis for the performance calculation of input R&D cost. In this study, K-water has developed a web-based technology valuation model for public interest type water resources based on the technology evaluation system that is suitable for the characteristics of a technology in water resources fields. In particular, by utilizing the evaluation methodology of the Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in Japan to match the expense items to the expense accounts based on the related benefit items, we proposed the so-called 'K-water's proprietary model' which involves the 'cost-benefit' approach and the FCF (Free Cash Flow), and ultimately led to build a pipeline on the K-water research performance management system and then verify the practical case of a technology related to "desalination". We analyze the embedded design logic and evaluation process of web-based valuation system that reflects characteristics of water resources technology, reference information and database(D/B)-associated logic for each model to calculate public interest-based and profit-based technology values in technology integrated management system. We review the hybrid evaluation module that reflects the quantitative index of the qualitative evaluation indices reflecting the unique characteristics of water resources and the visualized user-interface (UI) of the actual web-based evaluation, which both are appended for calculating the business value based on financial data to the existing web-based technology valuation systems in other fields. K-water's technology valuation model is evaluated by distinguishing between public-interest type and profitable-type water technology. First, evaluation modules in profit-type technology valuation model are designed based on 'profitability of technology'. For example, the technology inventory K-water holds has a number of profit-oriented technologies such as water treatment membranes. On the other hand, the public interest-type technology valuation is designed to evaluate the public-interest oriented technology such as the dam, which reflects the characteristics of public benefits and costs. In order to examine the appropriateness of the cost-benefit based public utility valuation model (i.e. K-water specific technology valuation model) presented in this study, we applied to practical cases from calculation of benefit-to-cost analysis on water resource technology with 20 years of lifetime. In future we will additionally conduct verifying the K-water public utility-based valuation model by each business model which reflects various business environmental characteristics.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.22-30
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• 2014

This study undertakes a comparative analysis of the correlation between the condition of the domestic construction market and the expansion of overseas projects within construction companies, based on the vector error correction model. The analysis results verified that, in the post-IMF crisis period, domestic construction companies took on more overseas projects only when the residential construction market slowed down. Compared to the pre-crisis period, construction companies grew more responsive to the condition of the domestic market for residential construction, and they took on more overseas construction projects when the domestic market slumped. This is because the business portfolios of Korean construction companies' render them highly vulnerable to the condition of the residential construction market. When the domestic residential market slows down, the business condition of construction companies quickly takes a turn for the worse, and to cope with this, they turn to overseas projects to compensate for the slowing of the domestic market. As the analysis shows, expanding overseas construction projects as a way to turn around business condition amid a slow residential construction market actually undermines the management of the companies even further. In other words, shifting business focus toward an overseas market during a hard time might be useful for securing cash flow, but might not help to restore profitability. Thus, construction companies need to carefully manage their level of business diversification to ensure strategic flexibility.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.86-98
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• 2014

This study examined a long-standing issue with its perverse results in the Korean capital markets, such as any variant financial profiles over time, affecting capital structure for the firms belonging to the chaebols. It may be of interest to identify these components from the perspectives of international investors and domestic policy makers to implement their contingent strategies on the target leverage, since the U.S. financial turmoils in the late 2000s. Regarding the evidence from the three hypothesis tests on the firms in the chaebols, this research found that the control variabels measuring profitability, business risk, and non-debt tax shields, showed their statistically significant relationships with the different types of a debt ratio. While FCFF(free cash flow to the firm) showed its significant influence to discriminate between the firms in the chaebols and their counterparts, not belonging to the chaebols, BDRELY as the ratio of liabilities to total assets, comprising the enhanced 'Dupont' system, only showed its statistically significant effect on leverage in the context of the parametric and nonparametric tests. In line with the results obtained from the present research, one may expect that a firm in the Korean chaebol, may control or restructure its present level of capital structure to revert to its target optimal capital structure towards maximizing the shareholders' wealth.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-27
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• 2007

In this study, we investigated the market long-term performance of stock splits by using the Korean Stock Market data from 1998 through 2002. We measured the performance by the event-time portfolio approach with the buy-and-hold abnormal return(BHAR) and the cumulative average abnormal return(CAAR). Also, the calendar-time portfolio approach with one-factor and three factor model were used for avoiding the misspecification model problem. The first of main results in this study was that the stock splits had significantly positive abnormal returns around the month of the stock splits announcements. However, the period BHAR and CAAR after the announcement month were significantly negative. This negative long-term abnormal returns were confirmed by the calendar-time portfolio approach. The results suggested that the abnormal return followed by the stock splits seemed to be positive in the short-term period. Second, there was no the difference of the long term performance between the high and the low split ratios. The operating income performance in the periods followed by the stock splits announcements grew worse. Therefore, the signalling effects, the managers of the firm under considering the stock splits would make use of splits as a form of signals for the upward changes in the cash flow or profits, could not be found. Finally, in contrast to Fama, Fisher, Jensen and Roll(1969), the significant negative abnormal returns following the stock splits were still found irrespective of the change of dividend payout ratio.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.171-181
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• 2013

The relationship about corporations' dividend policy and foreigners' share have been studied on the various views. However, there have barely been the studies about the relationships between the two variables according to hot and cold markets in Korea. In this point, this study attempts to find the differences of the tendency of foreigners' investment with financial variables and the relationship between foreigners' share and corporations' dividend policy according to hot and cold markets. For the analysis, it selected the 318 manufacturing corporations, which paid dividends in 2008 (cold market) and 2010(hot market). The results are classified into two types. 1) There are the difference, and 2) There are no differences of the relationships among the variables according to the two markets. First of all, The relationships between 1) foreigners' share and dividend 2) between foreigners' share and market value (Tobin's Q) and corporations' debt (Debt Ratio) were statistically significant in the both (hot and cold) markets. As showing the differences according to hot and cold markets, cash flow and foreigners' share showed the statistically significant relationships in 2010 (hot market), not in 2008 (cold market). One of the remarkable results is that most of relationships among variables, except the relationship between foreigners' share and dividend, are more strong in hot market than in cold market.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.401-406
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• 2012

Shanghai Stock Exchange is the largest stock exchange of emerging markets that there were listed firms 905, listed securities 1,537, listed stocks 949, total number of listed stocks 2 trillion 2000 billion shares. There is more development that is expected to occur in the future. The purpose of this study is to find determinants of capital structure to listed manufacturing firms in Shanghai Stock Exchange using multiple regression. Conclusions of this study are summarized as follows. First, firm size is positively related to debt ratio significantly at 1% significance level.. Second, the profitability is negatively related to debt ratio significantly at 1% significance level. Third, the growth ability is positively related to debt ratio significantly at 1% significance level. fourth, cash flow, the largest shares ownership, negotiable shares ratio are negatively related to debt ratio but they are not significant statistically. The result of this study provides information for investors and can be utilized to improvement of financial structure.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.732-753
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• 2017

Recently, when evaluating the technology values in the fields of biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and medicine, we have needed more to estimate those values in consideration of the period and cost for the commercialization to be put into in future. The existing discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialized input cost of technology-applied products. However, since the value of technology and investment should be considered as opportunity value and the information of decision-making for resource allocation should be taken into account, it is regarded desirable to apply the concept of real options, and in order to reflect the characteristics of business model for the target technology into the concept of volatility in terms of stock price which we usually apply to in evaluation of a firm's value, we need to consider 'the continuity of stock price (relatively minor change)' and 'positive condition'. Thus, as discussed in a lot of literature, it is necessary to investigate the relationship among volatility, underlying asset values, and cost of commercialization in the Black-Scholes model for estimating the technology value based on real options. This study is expected to provide more elaborated real options model, by mathematically deriving whether the ratio of the present value of the underlying asset to the present value of the commercialization cost, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM), is divided into the "no action taken" (NAT) area under certain threshold conditions or not, and also presenting the estimation logic for option values according to the observation variables (or input values).

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.1-23
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• 2009

Prior bankruptcy studies have established that bankrupt firm's pre-filing financial ratios are different from those of healthy firms or of randomly selected going concerns. However, they may not be sufficiently different from the financial ratios of other firms in financial distress to allow the development of a ratio-based model that predicts bankruptcy with reasonable accuracy. As the result, in the multiple discriminant model, independent variables divided firms into bankrupt firms and healthy firms are retained earnings to total asset, receivable turnover, net income to sales, financial expenses, inventory turnover, owner's equity to total asset, cash flow to current liability, and current asset to current liability. Moreover four variables Retained earnings to total asset, net income to sales, total asset turnover, owner's equity to total asset indicate that these valuables classify bankrupt firms and distress firms. On the other hand, Owner's Equity to borrowed capital, Ordinary income to Net Sales, Operating Income to Total Asset, Total Asset Turnover and Inventory Turnover are selected to predict bankruptcy possibility in the Logistic regression model.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.580-599
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• 2008

This paper aims at examining the existence and characteristics of regional difference in project finance in Korea. Main results of this paper are as follow. Firstly, regional difference in project finance between capital region and local can be seen partially. However, their characteristics are different from corporate finance. ANOVA tests show significant differences of excess interest rate occur in case of commercial real estate projects and significant differences of contracted terms occur in case of residential real estate projects carried out by local banks. Secondly, key factors causing the regional differences in project finance are asymmetric information for cash flow generated by the project between the capital region and local. Especially, regional differences in project finance are different from those in corporate financing because of local banks$^{\circ}{\phi}$ behaviors. They follow and act as the passive members of nationwide banks in case of the capital region projects. Thirdly, prepaid sale system and the guarantee system depending on construction companies dilute the regional differences in project finance in case of residential real estate projects. Although these systems contributed rapid growth of project finance, they may be the main factors distorting project finance market which lead to financial crisis. In these context, policy implications may be derived in order to solve the confronted problems of project finance market.