• International conference on construction engineering and project management
• /
• 2013.01a
• /
• pp.602-607
• /
• 2013

Financial risks associated with capital investments are often measured with different feasibility indicators such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This paper aims at demonstrating practical applications of probabilistic feasibility analysis techniques for an integrated feasibility evaluation of the IRR and PBP. The IRR and PBP are concurrently analyzed in order to measure the profitability and liquidity, respectively, of a cash flow. The cash flow data of a real wind turbine project is used in the study. The presented approach consists of two phases. First, two newly reported analysis techniques are used to carry out a series of what-if analyses for the IRR and PBP. Second, the relationship between the IRR and PBP is identified using Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the integrated feasibility evaluation of stochastic cash flows becomes a more viable option with the aide of newly developed probabilistic analysis techniques. It is also shown that the relationship between the IRR and PBP for the wind turbine project can be used as a predictive model for the actual IRR at the end of the service life based on the actual PBP of the project early in the service life.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.37 no.1
• /
• pp.19-44
• /
• 2015

This paper examines the effect of the global financial crisis on corporate investment in Korea. Specifically, the crisis was considered to have possibly constrained firm-level investment as the negative shock to the credit supply dramatically unfolded. As Duchin et al. (2010) demonstrated, if a negative supply-side shock is evident during a crisis period, larger cash holdings before the crisis will lead to fewer constraints to corporate investment, or vice versa. In order to investigate the supply-side effect of the crisis, we use firm-level financial data, including firms listed on the Korean stock market as well as small and medium-sized enterprises. We find that corporate investment declined significantly after the crisis, even if we control for factors associated with the demand side, such as contemporaneous capital productivity and cash flow. More importantly, the decline is positively and significantly related to cash holdings before the crisis, implying the negative effect of a credit supply shock. Small and medium enterprises experienced relatively sharp investment declines compared to those of larger firms, and the relationship between pre-crisis cash amounts and the degree of investment decline is greater than that in large firms. Additionally, we examine whether the negative effect persists up to the present, finding evidence that the cash-investment relationship continues in small and medium-sized enterprises.

• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.319-335
• /
• 2014

This study attempts to suggest an economic analysis model for SNG projects, which can reflect the future uncertainty objectively and applies the real option valuation incorporating the flexible investment decision. Based on this analysis model, net present value and internal rate of return were estimated by using preliminary feasibility study report of SNG project. And economic evaluation of SNG project was performed with real option valuation using binomial option model. Through this, the difference of analysis results between the real option valuation model and the discounted cash flow model were compared and the usefulness of the real option valuation model was confirmed. From the actual proof analysis, it is confirmed that the real option valuation model showed higher SNG project value than the discounted cash flow model did. It was confirmed that by applying the real option valuation model, economic analysis can be performed on not only the current straightforward SNG project, but also various future portfolios having options such as expansion, modification, or decommission.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.155-163
• /
• 1999

This study is intended to analyze what trend the EVA technique recently actively studied shows according to the financial structure of the firm. As a result of analysis, it was found that the firm with the entire sum of its capitals depleted showed the negative value in both the EVA on the basis of operating profit and the EVA on the basis of cash flow from 5 years before its capitals were depleted. Especially, its EVA showed the negative value more strongly than the cash flow accruing by business activity. In analyzing the EVA of the firm with more than 1,500% of the debt to equity ratio, its EVA also showed the negative value from 5 years ago. But the firm with the good financial structure of the debt to equity of less than 35% showed the positive value in the EVA on the basis of its cash flow from 5 years ago. As can be seen from this result, the fact is that the firm can survive only when it raises its EVA through its structural change(re-engineering) and business innovation. Therefore, firms need to seek to turn their business philosophy or policy into the promotion of business innovation and business management emphasizing technology in order to improve their EVA indicators.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.9
• /
• pp.315-328
• /
• 2020

In this study, we examined various aspects of discretionary accruals. We compared the power of Jones Model (JM), Modified Jones Model (MJM) and Performance Matched Model (PMM). Furthermore, we tested whether accruals derived from cash flow approach or balance sheet approach provide better results and we investigated the significance of country and industry control variables in models. In order to perform these tests, we constructed thirty equations. The data consists of 319 non-financial companies over five years in the GCC region. We used panel data regression models, and testing suggests us to use random effect model as the most suitable one. The results show that PMM has the highest explanatory power among models and it is followed by JM and MJM, consecutively. Secondly, results reveal that accruals derived from cash flow approach provide more accurate results. Moreover, country dummies are significant in models with cash flow approach and they lose significance in balance sheet approach. We differentiated industries due to two different classifications: the first group with higher number of industries is more precise compared to the second group with a narrower scope and lower number of industries. The model including both industrial and country-wise dummies scores highest in significance.

• Plant Journal
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.42-48
• /
• 2012

Under traditional analysis of the capital budgeting, NPV, it is assumed that management cannot react to deviation from the expected scenario of cash flow at the time of evaluation. In practice, however, it is less likely that the expected scenario will come true when new information arrives and uncertainty is resolved. Uncertainty and risk can be influenced through 'managerial flexibility', which becomes a central instrument for value creation. Real option framework including option to defer, option for staged investment, option to alter, option to abandon, option to switch, etc. takes this managerial flexibility into account. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use real option method to evaluate the project than the traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) tool if the firm has high volatility of the expected returns.

• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.31 no.3
• /
• pp.95-111
• /
• 2014

It is essential to carry out an economic analysis on public water supply projects so that policy makers and water enterprises are aware of the actual value of the project. However, many popular approaches based on discounted cash flow analysis do not capture the uncertainties inherent in cash flow. In order to analyze the economic values of the water supply project of local governments, we utilize real option model, which considers uncertainty in future water price behavior and captures the value of real life flexibility. The real option model is designed to incorporate the option to expand and abandon, and it is applied to a local government case. Furthermore, we assess the project by exploring Luehrman's option space to accommodate the more efficient decision making. The results show that substantial amount of potential value is included in the public water supply service, and the overall value is greater than the value obtained from the discounted cash flow model.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.10 no.7
• /
• pp.11-22
• /
• 2012

Intangible assets are the important tool which decides upon economic wealth and development of knowledge-information economy. We have to make effective use of intangible assets in order to assure surplus earnings, competitive superiority. The importance of intangible assets, especially patent right, may be properly understood only when their values are assessed adequately. It is very significant to appraise rationally patent right value from finance support, technology transaction, investment decision, M&A, legal proceedings, strategy and etc. Thus the purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic value of a patent right using DCF(Discounted-Cash Flow Method). This paper presents the basic model, related principles and standards of valuation, and then, case analysis of patent right valuation using DCF.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.157-176
• /
• 2018

The purpose of this research is to develop a detection model for companies designated as administrative issue in KOSDAQ market using financial data. Administration issue designates the companies with high potential for delisting, which gives them time to overcome the reasons for the delisting under certain restrictions of the Korean stock market. It acts as an alarm to inform investors and market participants of which companies are likely to be delisted and warns them to make safe investments. Despite this importance, there are relatively few studies on administration issues prediction model in comparison with the lots of studies on bankruptcy prediction model. Therefore, this study develops and verifies the detection model of the companies designated as administrative issue using financial data of KOSDAQ companies. In this study, logistic regression and decision tree are proposed as the data mining models for detecting administrative issues. According to the results of the analysis, the logistic regression model predicted the companies designated as administrative issue using three variables - ROE(Earnings before tax), Cash flows/Shareholder's equity, and Asset turnover ratio, and its overall accuracy was 86% for the validation dataset. The decision tree (Classification and Regression Trees, CART) model applied the classification rules using Cash flows/Total assets and ROA(Net income), and the overall accuracy reached 87%. Implications of the financial indictors selected in our logistic regression and decision tree models are as follows. First, ROE(Earnings before tax) in the logistic detection model shows the profit and loss of the business segment that will continue without including the revenue and expenses of the discontinued business. Therefore, the weakening of the variable means that the competitiveness of the core business is weakened. If a large part of the profits is generated from one-off profit, it is very likely that the deterioration of business management is further intensified. As the ROE of a KOSDAQ company decreases significantly, it is highly likely that the company can be delisted. Second, cash flows to shareholder's equity represents that the firm's ability to generate cash flow under the condition that the financial condition of the subsidiary company is excluded. In other words, the weakening of the management capacity of the parent company, excluding the subsidiary's competence, can be a main reason for the increase of the possibility of administrative issue designation. Third, low asset turnover ratio means that current assets and non-current assets are ineffectively used by corporation, or that asset investment by corporation is excessive. If the asset turnover ratio of a KOSDAQ-listed company decreases, it is necessary to examine in detail corporate activities from various perspectives such as weakening sales or increasing or decreasing inventories of company. Cash flow / total assets, a variable selected by the decision tree detection model, is a key indicator of the company's cash condition and its ability to generate cash from operating activities. Cash flow indicates whether a firm can perform its main activities(maintaining its operating ability, repaying debts, paying dividends and making new investments) without relying on external financial resources. Therefore, if the index of the variable is negative(-), it indicates the possibility that a company has serious problems in business activities. If the cash flow from operating activities of a specific company is smaller than the net profit, it means that the net profit has not been cashed, indicating that there is a serious problem in managing the trade receivables and inventory assets of the company. Therefore, it can be understood that as the cash flows / total assets decrease, the probability of administrative issue designation and the probability of delisting are increased. In summary, the logistic regression-based detection model in this study was found to be affected by the company's financial activities including ROE(Earnings before tax). However, decision tree-based detection model predicts the designation based on the cash flows of the company.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.12 no.4
• /
• pp.85-92
• /
• 2014

Purpose - This study conducted empirical research on non-financial corporations listed on the stock exchange from 2001 to 2010, focusing on the effects of corporate governance on real earnings management of corporations. In particular, this study examined primarily the impact of the largest shareholder who could use earnings management to pursue his own self-interest, and foreign investors who played a checking role against the largest shareholders. The study also reviewed the relationship between corporate governance and earnings management while also considering corporate growth. Research design, data, and methodology - As for the measurements of real earnings management, abnormal operating cash flow and abnormal production cost were utilized. As for the independent variables, share ratio of the largest shareholder and affiliate person (M) and share ratio of foreign investors (FT) were leveraged. This study excluded those organizations that had changed their fiscal years, those that had not submitted an audit report, corporations under supervision, delisted corporations, corporations that had changed their business type, and so on, from the non-financial corporations out of the publicly traded corporations whose fiscal year ended in December from 2001 to 2010 in addition, KIS values were utilized for the corporate financial data in the study. To verify whether management structure and growth had an impact on real earnings management of a corporation through empirical analysis, a multiple regression analysis model was applied. Result - First, as a result of the analysis, the share ratio (M) of the largest shareholder and affiliate person was found to have a significant positive correlation with abnormal cash flow from operations(ACF) and abnormal production cost (APD). When controlling the growth, the share ratio (M) of the largest shareholder and affiliate person was found to have an insignificant correlation with abnormal cash flow from operations(ACF) but a significant correlation with abnormal production cost (APD). Second, foreign ownership (FT) was found to have a significant positive correlation with abnormal cash flow from operations(ACF) and abnormal production cost (APD) at the confidence level of 1 percent when not including the growth dummy. When controlling the growth, foreign ownership (FT) was found to have a significant negative correlation with abnormal cash flow from operations (ACF) and with abnormal production cost (APD). Conclusion - The results imply that the largest shareholder is closely related to earnings management through real activities regardless of corporate growth. It is also possible to determine from these results that foreign investors are related to earnings management through real activities when not considering corporate growth, but that they would reduce earnings management in the case of considering the growth. Thus, this study verified along with the existing studies that foreign investors were conducting the control function on controlling shareholders.