• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2007

The capabilities ofBusiness Process Management Systems (BPMS's) are continuously extended to increase theeffectiveness of the management and enactment of business processes. This paper identifies the challenge ofcase prediction, which for a specific case under the control of a BPMS deals with the estimation of the remaining time until it is completed. An accurate case prediction facility is a valuable tool for the operationalcontrol of business processes, as it enables the pre-active monitoring of time violations. Little research has beencarried out in this area and few commercial tools support case prediction. This paper lists the requirements onsuch a facility and sketches sonae directions to reach a solution. To illustrate the depth of the problem, a smallaspect of the problem is treated in more detail. It involves the complex relations between tasks and resources inbusiness processes, which makes an exact analytical approach mfeasible.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.101-104
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• 2007

All of noise prediction model have it's own features in the case of modeling conditions, so it is very important to know the features of each model case by case for a proper modeling, especially using at the Environmental Impact Assessment. For prediction of highway traffic noise and abating the noise by barriers, two kinds of prediction model, HW-NOISE, KHTN(Korea Highway Traffic Noise) has been mainly used in Korea. In this study, the features of these models were described at the same conditions. The properties of sound power from a road, diffraction characteristics from a barrier, sound pressure level decaying in each model were investigated. Using the results, it will be anticipated that the proper using of prediction models in the works of highway noise abating.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.95 no.2
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• pp.203-208
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• 2006

This study compared the roundwood demand prediction accuracy of econometric and time-series models using Korean data. The roundwood was divided into softwood and hardwood by species. The econometric model of roundwood demand was specified with four explanatory variables; own price, substitute price, gross domestic product, dummy. The time-series model was specified with lagged endogenous variable. The dummy variable reflected the abrupt decrease in roundwood demand in the late 1990's in the case of softwood roundwood, and the boom of plywood export in the late 1970's in the case of hardwood roundwood. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated on the basis of Residual Mean Square Errors(RMSE). The results showed that the softwood roundwood demand prediction can be performed more accurately by econometric model than by time-series model. However, the hardwood roundwood demand prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using econometric and time-series model.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.69-84
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• 2006

Importance of Today's diffusion of integrated hospital information systems is that various and huge amount of data is being accumulated in their database systems. Many researchers have studied utilizing such hospital data. While most researches were conducted mainly for medical diagnosis, there have been insufficient studies to develop medical care cost prediction model, especially using machine learning techniques. In this research, therefore, we built a medical care cost prediction model for cancer patients using CBR (Case-Based Reasoning), one of the machine learning techniques. Its performance was compared with those of Neural Networks and Decision Tree models. As a result of the experiment, the CBR prediction model was shown to be the best in general with respect to error rate and linearity between real values and predicted values. It is believed that the medical care cost prediction model can be utilized for the effective management of limited resources in hospitals.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.203-206
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• 1996

Prediction of firm bankruptcy have been extensively studied in accounting, as all stockholders in a firm have a vested interest in monitoring its financial performance. The objective of this paper is to develop the hybrid models for bankruptcy prediction. The proposed hybrid models are two phase. Phase one are (a) DA-assisted neural network, (b) Logit-assisted neural network, and (c) Genetic-assisted neural network. And, phase two are (a) DA-assisted Case based reasoning, and (b) Genetic-assisted Case based reasoning. In the variables selection, We are focusing on three alternative methods - linear discriminant analysis, logit analysis and genetic algorithms - that can be used empirically select predictors for hybrid model in bankruptcy prediction. Empirical results using Korean medium-sized firms data show that hybrid models are very promising neural network models and case based reasoning for bankruptcy prediction in terms of predictive accuracy and adaptability.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.12
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• pp.1011-1027
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• 2010

In hydrologic modeling, prediction uncertainty generally stems from various uncertainty sources associated with model structure, data, and parameters, etc. This study aims to assess the parameter uncertainty effect on hydrologic prediction results. For this objective, a distributed rainfall-sediment yield-runoff model, which consists of rainfall-runoff module for simulation of surface and subsurface flows and sediment yield module based on unit stream power theory, was applied to the mesoscale mountainous area (Cheoncheon catchment; 289.9 $km^2$). For parameter uncertainty evaluation, the model was calibrated by a multi-objective optimization algorithm (MOSCEM) with two different objective functions (RMSE and HMLE) and Pareto optimal solutions of each case were then estimated. In Case I, the rainfall-runoff module was calibrated to investigate the effect of parameter uncertainty on hydrograph reproduction whereas in Case II, sediment yield module was calibrated to show the propagation of parameter uncertainty into sedigraph estimation. Additionally, in Case III, all parameters of both modules were simultaneously calibrated in order to take account of prediction uncertainty in rainfall-sediment yield-runoff modeling. The results showed that hydrograph prediction uncertainty of Case I was observed over the low-flow periods while the sedigraph of high-flow periods was sensitive to uncertainty of the sediment yield module parameters in Case II. In Case III, prediction uncertainty ranges of both hydrograph and sedigraph were larger than the other cases. Furthermore, prediction uncertainty in terms of spatial distribution of erosion and deposition drastically varied with the applied model parameters for all cases.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.238-245
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• 2021

In this study, we carried out case study to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration of Nakdong river estuary with LSTM model. we aimed to figure out a optimal model condition and appropriate predictor for prediction in dissolved oxygen concentration with model parameter and predictor as cases. Model parameter case study results showed that Epoch = 300 and Sequence length = 1 showed higher accuracy than other conditions. In predictor case study, it was highest accuracy where DO and Temperature were used as a predictor, it was caused by high correlation between DO concentration and Temperature. From above results, we figured out an appropriate model condition and predictor for prediction in DO concentration of Nakdong river estuary.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.17 no.2E
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• pp.26-30
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• 1998

In this paper, we compose neural network predictive HMM(NNPHMM) to provide the dynamic feature of the speech pattern for the HMM. The NNPHMM is the hybrid network of neura network and the HMM. The NNPHMM trained to predict the future vector, varies each time. It is used instead of the mean vector in the HMM. In the experiment, we compared the recognition abilities of the one hundred Korean syllables according to the variation of hidden layer, state number and prediction orders of the NNPHMM. The hidden layer of NNPHMM increased from 10 dimensions to 30 dimensions, the state number increased from 4 to 6 and the prediction orders increased from 10 dimensions to 30 dimension, the state number increased from 4 to 6 and the prediction orders increased from the second oder to the fourth order. The NNPHMM in the experiment is composed of multi-layer perceptron with one hidden layer and CMHMM. As a result of the experiment, the case of prediction order is the second, the average recognition rate increased 3.5% when the state number is changed from 4 to 5. The case of prediction order is the third, the recognition rate increased 4.0%, and the case of prediction order is fourth, the recognition rate increased 3.2%. But the recognition rate decreased when the state number is changed from 5 to 6.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.329-337
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• 2003

Stock market prediction is regarded as a challenging task of financial time-series prediction. There have been many studies using artificial neural networks in this area. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are regarded as promising methods for the prediction of financial time-series because they me a risk function consisting the empirical ewer and a regularized term which is derived from the structural risk minimization principle. In this study, I apply SVM to predicting the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). In addition, this study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in financial forecasting by comparing it with back-propagation neural networks and case-based reasoning. The experimental results show that SVM provides a promising alternative to stock market prediction.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.399-408
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• 2001

This paper presents a simultaneous optimization approach of case-based reasoning (CBR) using a genetic algorithm(GA) for the prediction of stock price index. Prior research suggested many hybrid models of CBR and the GA for selecting a relevant feature subset or optimizing feature weights. Most studies, however, used the GA for improving only a part of architectural factors for the CBR system. However, the performance of CBR may be enhanced when these factors are simultaneously considered. In this study, the GA simultaneously optimizes multiple factors of the CBR system. Experimental results show that a GA approach to simultaneous optimization of CBR outperforms other conventional approaches for the prediction of stock price index.