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Analysis of promising countries for export using parametric and non-parametric methods based on ERGM: Focusing on the case of information communication and home appliance industries (ERGM 기반의 모수적 및 비모수적 방법을 활용한 수출 유망국가 분석: 정보통신 및 가전 산업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Jinny;Yoo, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.175-196
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    • 2022
  • Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

Memory Organization for a Fuzzy Controller.

  • Jee, K.D.S.;Poluzzi, R.;Russo, B.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1041-1043
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    • 1993
  • Fuzzy logic based Control Theory has gained much interest in the industrial world, thanks to its ability to formalize and solve in a very natural way many problems that are very difficult to quantify at an analytical level. This paper shows a solution for treating membership function inside hardware circuits. The proposed hardware structure optimizes the memoried size by using particular form of the vectorial representation. The process of memorizing fuzzy sets, i.e. their membership function, has always been one of the more problematic issues for the hardware implementation, due to the quite large memory space that is needed. To simplify such an implementation, it is commonly [1,2,8,9,10,11] used to limit the membership functions either to those having triangular or trapezoidal shape, or pre-definite shape. These kinds of functions are able to cover a large spectrum of applications with a limited usage of memory, since they can be memorized by specifying very few parameters ( ight, base, critical points, etc.). This however results in a loss of computational power due to computation on the medium points. A solution to this problem is obtained by discretizing the universe of discourse U, i.e. by fixing a finite number of points and memorizing the value of the membership functions on such points [3,10,14,15]. Such a solution provides a satisfying computational speed, a very high precision of definitions and gives the users the opportunity to choose membership functions of any shape. However, a significant memory waste can as well be registered. It is indeed possible that for each of the given fuzzy sets many elements of the universe of discourse have a membership value equal to zero. It has also been noticed that almost in all cases common points among fuzzy sets, i.e. points with non null membership values are very few. More specifically, in many applications, for each element u of U, there exists at most three fuzzy sets for which the membership value is ot null [3,5,6,7,12,13]. Our proposal is based on such hypotheses. Moreover, we use a technique that even though it does not restrict the shapes of membership functions, it reduces strongly the computational time for the membership values and optimizes the function memorization. In figure 1 it is represented a term set whose characteristics are common for fuzzy controllers and to which we will refer in the following. The above term set has a universe of discourse with 128 elements (so to have a good resolution), 8 fuzzy sets that describe the term set, 32 levels of discretization for the membership values. Clearly, the number of bits necessary for the given specifications are 5 for 32 truth levels, 3 for 8 membership functions and 7 for 128 levels of resolution. The memory depth is given by the dimension of the universe of the discourse (128 in our case) and it will be represented by the memory rows. The length of a world of memory is defined by: Length = nem (dm(m)+dm(fm) Where: fm is the maximum number of non null values in every element of the universe of the discourse, dm(m) is the dimension of the values of the membership function m, dm(fm) is the dimension of the word to represent the index of the highest membership function. In our case then Length=24. The memory dimension is therefore 128*24 bits. If we had chosen to memorize all values of the membership functions we would have needed to memorize on each memory row the membership value of each element. Fuzzy sets word dimension is 8*5 bits. Therefore, the dimension of the memory would have been 128*40 bits. Coherently with our hypothesis, in fig. 1 each element of universe of the discourse has a non null membership value on at most three fuzzy sets. Focusing on the elements 32,64,96 of the universe of discourse, they will be memorized as follows: The computation of the rule weights is done by comparing those bits that represent the index of the membership function, with the word of the program memor . The output bus of the Program Memory (μCOD), is given as input a comparator (Combinatory Net). If the index is equal to the bus value then one of the non null weight derives from the rule and it is produced as output, otherwise the output is zero (fig. 2). It is clear, that the memory dimension of the antecedent is in this way reduced since only non null values are memorized. Moreover, the time performance of the system is equivalent to the performance of a system using vectorial memorization of all weights. The dimensioning of the word is influenced by some parameters of the input variable. The most important parameter is the maximum number membership functions (nfm) having a non null value in each element of the universe of discourse. From our study in the field of fuzzy system, we see that typically nfm 3 and there are at most 16 membership function. At any rate, such a value can be increased up to the physical dimensional limit of the antecedent memory. A less important role n the optimization process of the word dimension is played by the number of membership functions defined for each linguistic term. The table below shows the request word dimension as a function of such parameters and compares our proposed method with the method of vectorial memorization[10]. Summing up, the characteristics of our method are: Users are not restricted to membership functions with specific shapes. The number of the fuzzy sets and the resolution of the vertical axis have a very small influence in increasing memory space. Weight computations are done by combinatorial network and therefore the time performance of the system is equivalent to the one of the vectorial method. The number of non null membership values on any element of the universe of discourse is limited. Such a constraint is usually non very restrictive since many controllers obtain a good precision with only three non null weights. The method here briefly described has been adopted by our group in the design of an optimized version of the coprocessor described in [10].

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Studies on the Solubility Phenomenon and Activities of Silk Cocoon Sericin through the Filature Water Conditions. (제사용수의 수질이 견층세리신의 용해에 미치는 거동구명에 관한 연구)

  • 김병호
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.77-98
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    • 1974
  • This study was carried out ill an attempt to investigate the properties and activities of sericin obtained from silk cocoon shells in silk reeling water through various instrumental analyses. In addition, the effects of the characteristics in sericin solubility on the reeling process and silk qualities were also studied on the basis of tile above conditions. The results obtained are as follows: I. The sericin properties and activities through various analytical instruments. 1. The water solubility of each amino acid such as serine, glycine. glutamic and aspartic acids against the pH modified water by using automatic amino acid analyzer, showed the lowest solubility at PH 5, but it increased according to drifting toward the alkalinity. 2. When the obtained sericin particles by water pH variation were observed with the electronic microscope, it was found for the sericin Particles to expand in the alkaline regions. 3. The IR spectrum results showed the differences among the pH modified sericin solutions at the range of 2,100cm-1 and 1.890cm-1 of wave number. 4. The existence of sericin with in silk fabrics made differences in the X-ray interference intencity, that is, the non-degummed fabrics had the interference peak at 2$\theta$=14$^{\circ}$, 17$^{\circ}$, 24$^{\circ}$, and the degummed ones had it at 2$\theta$=17$^{\circ}$, 18$^{\circ}$, 20$^{\circ}$, 23$^{\circ}$, 26$^{\circ}$. II. The results of sericin solubility for silk reeling process. 1. The sericin solubility and swelling had a tendency to increase up with high M-alkalinity and pH value of water. But in case of acidity. water hardness and concentration of ethylene glycol were high, the sericin solubility and swelling were decreased. 2. With the filature experiments, the best conditions of filature orator are summarized as fellows ; a. pH; 6.9${\pm}$0.2 d. acidity; below10ppm b. total hardness; 55:5ppm e. Fe ion; none c. M-alkalinity; 40${\pm}$10ppm

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The Effect of Au Addition on the Hardening Mechanism in Ag-25wt% Pd-15wt% Cu (Ag-25wt% Pd-15wt% Cu 3원합금(元合金) 및 Au 첨가합금(添加合金)의 시효경화특성(時效京華特性))

  • Bea, B.J.;Lee, H.S.;Lee, K.D.
    • Journal of Technologic Dentistry
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 1998
  • The specimens used were Ag-25 Pd-15 Cu ternary alloy and Au addition alloy. These alloys were melted and casted by induction electric furnace and centrifugal casting machine in Ar atmosphere. These specimens were solution treated for 2hr at $800^{\circ}C$ and were then quenched into iced water, and aged at $350{\sim}550^{\circ}C$ Age- hardening characteristics of the small Au-containing Ag-Pd-Cu dental alloys were investigated by means of hardness testing. X-ray diffraction and electron microscope observations, electrical resistance, ergy dispersed spectra and electron probe microanalysis. Principal results are as follows : Hardening occured in two stages, i.e., stage I in low temperature and stage II in high temperature regions, during continuous aging. The case of hardening in stage I was due to the formation of the $L1_0$ type face-centered tetragonal PdCu-ordered phase in the grain interior and hardening in stage I was affected by the Cu concentration. In stage II, decomposition of the ${\alpha}$ solid solution to a PdCu ordered phase($L1_0$ type) and an Ag-rich ${\alpha}2$ phase occurred and a discontinuous precipitation occurred at the grain boundary. From the electron microscope study, it was conclued that the cause of age-hardening in this alloy is the precipitation of the PdCu ordered phase, which has AuCu I type face-centered tetragonal structure. Precipetation procedure was ${\alpha}{\to}{\alpha}+{\alpha}_2+PdCu {\to}{\alpha}_1+{\alpha}_2+PdCu$ at Pd/Cu = 1.7 Ag-Pd-Cu alloy is more effective dental alloy as ageing treatment and is suitable to isothermal ageing at $450^{\circ}C$.

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Study on a pair of small spot of nonsexual gland hind of the larvae in Bombyx mori L. (I) (유충의 생식후원선이 아닌 한 쌍의 소반점에 관한 조사연구 (1))

  • 윤종관
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • no.11
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    • pp.51-54
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    • 1970
  • External features of silkworms are not evident during stage of larvae and pupae like in the stage of imagines. In general, therefore, sexing of larvae has been depended on Herold's gland of males or Ishiwata' sexual spots (Anterior sexual spots and posterior sexual spots) of a female 2-3 days after of the 5th age since it is relatively easy to classify in this period. Sometimes. however, we made mistake of sexing since a pair of small spot around the abdomen of 9th abdominal of males and posterior sexual spot of females was found at the same position. This study has been conducted in order to obtain essential points of classifing the above it will be summarized as follows: A. Existence of the males small spots on 9th abdominal segment were varied by races. Through observation races by races the more larvae which had the small spots were found in chinese races than the Japanese, and 57 percent of the Chinese orgin larvae of the small spot were picked among total counted males. B. The small spots were more or less roundly shaped just as posterior sexual spots of females, and these spots were colored slightly even the colors were somewhat different by races. Milky color was seen in the case of the posterior sexual spots. The small spots were observed smaller than the posterior sexual spots. It is difficult classify the sexual spots during stage of mature larvae, but it was easily classified small spots by the naked eye even in the same stage. The small spots were found at the same site of the posterior sexual spots. C. After sexing by based on the small spots and Herold's gland, the sexing through purpae bodies were carried out again to confirm its correctness. Average 5. 2 percent of more opposite sex were found in the latter. This figures supposed to be caused the location of the small spots coincide with the posterior sexual spots. D. The moths, no disorder were found in daily activities and their generative functions depend on the existence of the small spot and thickness of its color. E. It is presumed that existence of the small spots were caused by races, heredity nature, voltinism, moulting, and etc.

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A Case Study of the PCK of Middle School Science Teachers on the Mendelian Genetics (멘델 유전에 대한 중학교 과학교사의 PCK 사례 연구)

  • Song, Mi-Ran;Kim, Sung-Ha
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.718-736
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    • 2014
  • This study was intended to determine PCK of the middle school science teachers on Mendelian genetics and factors influenced to form their PCKs. Two science teachers with biology major with a teaching experience over 5 years were chosen as the subject. Data were collected by class observation, semi-structured interview, teacher questionnaire survey, Content Representation and Pedagogical and Professional-experience Repertoire. The collected data were analyzed based on Magnusson's PCK for science teaching consisting of five components: (a) the orientation toward teaching science, (b) the knowledge of science curriculum, (c) the knowledge of students' understanding, (d) the knowledge of assessment, and (e) the knowledge and belief in the instructional strategies to teach science. Teachers could have the orientation toward teaching science served as an assisting role to support students' abilities. Both subject teachers seemed to focus on giving lectures. Their efforts to improve students' exploration methods and abilities were not expressed enough in their real classes and they found that students struggled to understand Mendelian genetics. Therefore, they should have explained them in an easier way and worked harder to make their students understood accurately and applied basic and advanced concepts of Mendelian genetics. They found students' preconception and misconception regarding Mendelian genetics and wished to enhance their learning effects by various teaching strategies such as correcting misconception, adding the history of science and simply assessing students' affirmative domains. It was also found that factors influenced to form PCK regarding Mendelian genetics by both teachers were as follows: teacher's personality and endeavor, textbooks and guidance books, schools and their circumstances, teaching experience, experience as a learner, interaction with their colleagues, and university curriculum. Both teachers said that it was important for teachers to make every efforts to give better classes.

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Effect of Okadaic Acids (OA) on Nuclear Maturation and Mitochondrial Activity of Hanwoo COCs during in vitro Maturation (소 난구복합체의 체외성숙시 Okadaic Acid (OA)가 핵성숙 및 Mitochondria 활성에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi S. H.;Han M. H.;Cho S. R.;Kim H. J.;Choe C. Y.;Son D. S.;Kim Y. K.;Lee M. H.;Jeoung Y. G.;Chung Y. H.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.303-309
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to examine the effects of OA on metaphase of meiosis II and the mitochondrial activity of cytoplasm in bovine cumulus oocytes complexes(COCs) during in vitro maturation. Hanwoo COCs were collected from the slaughterhouse cow ovaries and matured in TCM199 supplemented with $0.1\%$ PVA, 0.2 uM, 2 uM, 20 uM OA for the maturation rate of OA concentration. For the maturation effects between OA and cycloheximide(CX), COCs were matured in TCM199 with 25 ug/mL CX, 25 ug/mL CX (6 hrs culture) plus 2 uM OA or 2 uM OA only at a atmosphere $5\%\;CO_2,\;95\%$ air $39^{\circ}C$ for 6, 12, 24 hrs. To evaluate the nuclear types of matured COCs, cumulus cells were removedby $0.5\%$ hyaluronidase sol. and oocytes were fixed in 1:3 acetic acid ethyl alcohol for 30 sec. and then stained with $0.1\%$ basic Fuchsin sol. For the detection of fluoriscent intensity (FI) of matures oocytes, cumulus cells were removed same as performed above and were stained with 20 nM mite tracker for 20 min. at $39^{\circ}C$. Mitochondrial activity of FI in matured oocytes was imaged by laser conforcal microscopy (Fluoview, Olympus, Japan) and were measured scanned face on 5 um from median to endpoint of oocytes. Statical analysis of nuclear types observed the three replicates was carried out with ANOVA and Fisher's protected least significant difference test using the STATVIEW program. FI of matures oocytes was compared the multiples of the least intensity among the measured oocytes. Maturing in TCM199 supplemented with $0.1\%$ PVA, 0.2 uM, 2 uM, 20 uM OA, metaphase B were showed 72.0, 50.0, 70.0, $68.8\%$, respectively and there were different significant(p<0.05). In the case of treatment with OA and CX, metaphase were $73.8\%,\;8.2\%,\;45.5\%,\;73.7\%$ in $0.1\%$ PVA-TCM199, 25 ug/mL CX, 25 ug/mL CX plus OA or 2uM OA only, respeclively. FI was revealed the increasing tendency during the process of maturation. Whereas FI in CX was decreased about 3 times compared to the other treatments of 6 hrs maturation. We conclude that OA regulates bovine COCs maturation and induces the mitochondrial activity during the process of maturation.

Development of a Pre-treating Equipment and the Carcass Disposal System for Infected Poultry (감염가금 전처리 및 폐사가축 처리시스템 개발)

  • Hong, J.T.;Kim, H.J.;Yu, B.K.;Lee, S.H.;Hyun, C.S.;Ryu, I.S.;Oh, K.Y.;Kim, S.;Kwon, J.H.;Tack, D.S.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 2011
  • When we bury the infected poultry into the ground, we have many problems such as the difficulty of making sufficient area for burying, environmental contamination by the leachate, unpleasant ordor. Also, in case of burning the carcass of the infected poultry, there are some problems such as high cost, dust, unpleasant odor, etc. It could cause environmental contamination which many peoples and environmental organization complains about. In this study, we develop a treating system which treats the infected poultry carcass in a environmental method preventing the environment contamination. This system is composed of many processes. The euthanasia system uses rigid vinyl to trap and to do a euthanasia the infected poultry with lethal gas, carbon dioxide. And then, with the tractor attached grappler infected poultry carcass could be put into the carcass treating system. The euthanasia system uses rigid vinyl to trap the infected birds and to confine lethal gas, carbon dioxide. Infected poultry carcass are moved to carcass disposal system by collecting device which is attached at tractor. The carcass treatment system (capacity of disposal : 6.3 $m^3$) is installed on a truck and do one pass work, which is input, crush, stir, sterilize, and discharge treated carcass. 1,000 chickens was killed within 9.7min by $CO_2$ (300L/min) in the tent (10 $m^3$). The collecting device could carry 142 chickens at a time, and the movable carcass treatment system could sterilize 2 tons carcass per hour (at one time). This treatment systems was eco-friendly because it reduced the volume of carcass by 31.9% with no wastewater generation.

Dynamic Traffic Assignment Using Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 동적통행배정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kyung-Chul;Park, Chang-Ho;Chon, Kyung-Soo;Rhee, Sung-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.8 no.1 s.15
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    • pp.51-63
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    • 2000
  • Dynamic traffic assignment(DTA) has been a topic of substantial research during the past decade. While DTA is gradually maturing, many aspects of DTA still need improvement, especially regarding its formulation and solution algerian Recently, with its promise for In(Intelligent Transportation System) and GIS(Geographic Information System) applications, DTA have received increasing attention. This potential also implies higher requirement for DTA modeling, especially regarding its solution efficiency for real-time implementation. But DTA have many mathematical difficulties in searching process due to the complexity of spatial and temporal variables. Although many solution algorithms have been studied, conventional methods cannot iud the solution in case that objective function or constraints is not convex. In this paper, the genetic algorithm to find the solution of DTA is applied and the Merchant-Nemhauser model is used as DTA model because it has a nonconvex constraint set. To handle the nonconvex constraint set the GENOCOP III system which is a kind of the genetic algorithm is used in this study. Results for the sample network have been compared with the results of conventional method.

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The Variation of Nutural Population of Pinus densiflora S. et Z. in Korea -Change of variance due to number of family as sample size to affirm the population and family variations- (소나무 천연집단(天然集團)의 변이(變異)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(IV) -집단간(集團間) 및 가계간분산(家系間分散) 추정(推定)에 영향하는 가계수(家系數)에 대하여-)

  • Yim, Kyong Bin;Kwon, Ki Won;Lee, Kyong Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 1977
  • In the analysis of variance between population and between individual trees (families), the fluctuation of values of variances due to sample size, (number of family) was analysed by two different designs, i.e. 2-level nested design with equal sample size and randomized complete block design. The variables were seedling heights and root calipers of 1-0 and 1-1 seedlings of Pinus densiflora S. et Z. The details of three natural stands and their progeny characters were presented in previous reports. 1. In nested design analysis. increase of sample size resulted the decrease of F-values among families in general, however, the F-values among populations showen the increasing tendency. The smaller the sample size, the larger the F-values fluctuation was resulted in general. At the point of beyond sample size 10, however, the fluctuation become to be stabilized. The F-value fluctuation seemed to be more in the case of analysis with random sampling method than with sequentially accumulated sampling method. And also such a tendency was more obvious in smaller sample size than in large one. 2. In R.C.B.D. analysis, the sample size to affirm the family variation was smaller than that for population variations.

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