• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.275-311
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• 2007

Hydrogen energy is emphasized as a substitutable energy of carbon-based energy system in the future, since it is non-depletable and clean energy. Long term vision of Korean government on the national energy system is to promote hydrogen energy by 15% of final energy demand until 2040. This study analyzes economic impacts of hydrogen energy development employing a dynamic CGE model for Korea. Frontier technology such as hydrogen energy is featured as slow diffusion at the initial stage due to the learning effect and energy complementarity. Without government intervention, hydrogen energy would be produced upto 6.5% of final energy demand until 2040. However, if government subsidizes sales price of hydrogen energy by 10%, 20%, and 30%, share of hydrogen energy would increase 9.2%, 15.2%, and 37.7% of final energy demand. This result shows that the slow diffusion problem of hydrogen energy as frontier technology could be figured out by market incentive policy. On the other hand, production levels of transportation sector would increase while growth rate of oil and electricity sectors would decline. Household consumption would be affected negatively since increase of consumption due to the price decrease would be overwhelmed by income reduction owing to the increase of tax. Overall, GDP would not decrease or increase significantly since total production, investment, and export would increase even if household consumption declines.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.245-269
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• 1999

향후 기후변화협약과 같은 환경규제의 강화가 예견되는 상황에서 에너지산업은 상당한 정책변화를 겪게 될 것으로 예상된다. 이러한 정책수립과 결정과정에서 본 연구는 천연가스산업에 대한 정책변화 효과를 분석할 수 있는 일반균형 분석모형을 제시함으로써 천연가스산업에 관한 유용한 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 소국경제를 가정한 연산가능 일반균형모형(CGE)을 통해 분석된 천연가스산업의 거시경제적 파급효과를 살펴보면 다음과 같다. 먼저, 천연가스 가격이 5% 상승하였을 경우에는 실질GDP가 0.031% 감소하고, 생산자 물가지수는 0.051% 상승하였다. 가계수요가 10% 증가한 경우와 투자가 10% 증가한 경우에는 실질 GDP가 각각 0.002%씩 상승하고 생산자 물가지수는 0.008%와 0.004% 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 천연가스산업이 비교적 거시경제에 미치는 영향이 적은 것을 보여 주고 있다.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.47-66
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• 2018

This study analyzes the potential economic effects of a trade war between the U.S. and China. The CGE model is used to estimate the macroeconomic variables of each country and the change in imports/exports by industry by considering three different scenarios: (i) the US imposes a 25% of tariff on China; (ii) the US and China impose a 25% tariff bilaterally; (iii) the United States expands protection in vehicles and metals to Korea, Japan, and the EU. According to the results of the study, when the US and China initiate a trade war, GDP and welfare of both countries decline. China's decline in GDP and welfare are larger than those of the United States, which implies a trade war is more favorable to the U.S. than to China. In the long run, China's GDP and welfare decline widens further. While the trade volumes of the US and China are greatly reduced, the trade volumes of other countries does not significantly fluctuate. Finally, if the US extends protection policy to Korea, Japan and the EU, it creates undesirable effects on the US. In particular, damage to the US jeopardizes its advantageous position in a trade war with China. In order to emphasize the unfairness of protectionist policy and the damage to Korean industry, Korea needs to establish a strategy to counter US protectionist policy.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.16
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• pp.77-97
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• 2003

The Korean government issues the policy that regional government mat change the regional tax rates for economic growth. On the ground that change in regional tax rate incurs the disturbance in regional economy and entails tax competition, regional government does not accept the proposal. The CGE simulation result shows that tax competition reveals the trade-off relation between efficiency, balanced national development, and equity. Thereby, the stance of regional government can be justified by the results. Therefore central government has to grope for some reconcile means that efficiency and equity can be harmonized. The proposal can be justified by the analyses.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.199-228
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• 2011

In this study, the effect on the economy-energy-environment gap among regions of reducing GHGs is analyzed under various scenarios, using a multiregional dynamic CGE model. Regions in Korea are classified as six metropolitan areas. Scenarios are set in three cases such as self-regulatory measures, carbon tax and emissions trading scheme. The reduction target under each scenario is again classified according to volume basis and intensity basis. In results, self-regulation is shown to deepen the economic divide mostly, followed by a carbon tax, emissions trading scheme in order. This result could be interpreted such that a system based on market incentives gives less effect on the gap among regions. However, market incentives based system is expected to take time to build. Thus in implementing policies to increase short-term effects of the reduction targets, complementary policies are needed to reduce the regional devide.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.115-142
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• 2010

The voluntary mid-term greenhouse gas(GHG) emission reduction targets for 2020 among major developed and developing countries were evaluated by using the global computable general equilibrium(CGE) model. The GHG emissions of developed countries were estimated to be reduced by 14.0% from 1990 level, which implies that the GHG reduction targets of developed countries should be strengthened to reach agreement in future post-Kyoto negotiations. The voluntary participation of developing countries for GHG emissions reduction contributed to global GHG emissions reduction by 15.9% from 1990 levels, which were led by the participation of China and India. These outcomes imply that the reinforcement of GHG emission reduction targets in developed countries and the wider participation of developing countries will be necessary for the environmental effectiveness of the post-Kyoto regime. Emissions reduction based on voluntary targets will decrease the global real GDP by 1.18%.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.1-28
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• 1997

최근 전력가격의 인상을 통한 전력수요 조절에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본고에서는 개방경제 CGE 모형을 통하여 전기요금 인상이 국민총생산, 물개 무역수지 등 주요 거시변수들에 미치는 영향과 개별 산업의 생산, 생산물 가격, 수출입에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 1993년도 산업연관표에 기초하여 전체 산업을 16개 부분으로 통합, 재분류한 뒤, 전기요금 인상에 대한 다양한 정책실험을 시도하였다. 분석 결과 전력가격인상은 실질총생산의 감소 및 물가의 상승을 가져오나 그 정도는 기존의 연구보다 작은 것으로 나타났으며, 수출과 수입은 모두 감소하나 수출감소율이 수입감소율을 초과하여 무역수지는 악화되는 것으로 나타났다. 산업부문별로는 전기요금인상에 따라 비교역재에 가까운 서비스업의 생산량 감소효과가 두드러진 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.55-81
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• 2007

Most studies on $CO_2$ abatement cost with a computational general equilibrium(CGE) model focus on a specific country. On the contrary, this study compares and analyses the $CO_2$ abatement cost functions across 20 countries, consisting of OECD countries, China and Brazil, with a CGE model. For this purpose, we estimate the GDP loss from $CO_2$ emission reduction, assuming the 4 sector model. Our findings show that those cost curves are convex but different among the countries. However, despite of the difference in the cost curios, we have found that one group of countries has the relatively constant average abatement cost and the other group has the increasing average cost. The reason why such a pattern occurs is explained in terms of the variations of value-added and $Co_2$ emission coefficient by sector across the countries. As an environmental policy implication, this study presents information about which country is similar to one another in terms of the abatement cost.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.269-297
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• 2021

Bioplastics are attracting attention as a substitute for conventional petroleum-based plastics because they are carbon neutral and can be biodegradable. This study estimated economic and environmental impact of regulating the petroleum-based plastics industry and fostering the bioplastics industry using a Recursive Dynamic CGE Model of the Korean Economy. Results show that the regulation of the conventional plastics industry exhibits a positive environmental impact by reducing greenhouse gases and plastic waste and a negative economic impact with a decrease in GDP. Meanwhile, fostering the bioplastics industry with regulation on conventional plastics industry has similar levels of greenhouse gas and waste reduction effects when there is only regulation on the conventional plastics industry. It is also shown that expanding the production of bioplastics industry offsets existing economic losses as a form of increased GDP. If petroleum-based plastics are replaced through the expansion of bioplastics production, it can contribute to the decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions and plastic waste from economic growth.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.95-126
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to quantify the potential economic effects of Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA) negotiations of the WTO on automotive industry of the world using a multi-region, multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with 21 countries/regions and 22 sectors. According to the December 2008 NAMA modalities text, issued by the chair of the negotiation on NAMA, three different scenarios of tariff liberalization of NAMA are conducted on the basis of the Swiss formula with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 20 for developing (scenario 1), with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 22 for developing (scenario 2) and with a coefficient of 8 for developed members and 25 for developing (scenario 3). Simulation results show potential economic effects at the macroeconomic and microeconomic level of 21 countries concerned. In particular, Korea is to be one of the winners of tariff liberalization of NAMA in the WTO and Korean automotive industry is to benefit from it to a large extent in terms of its output, domestic sales, exports and trade balance, which implies that Korea needs to actively engage in NAMA negotiations of the WTO.