• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2015.11a
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• pp.192-193
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• 2015

Construction Cycle Trend Survey, which survey total value of orders and realized amounts monthly, is a valuable statistics that used to quick grasp or forecast the trend of domestic construction business. In recent periodical survey quality diagnoses, few professional users named a problem that Construction Cycle Trend Survey could not get together with the current state of the construction industry. This study examined weather Construction Cycle Trend Survey reflects the economic sentiment of construction business or not. Paired t test was performed between Construction Cycle Trend Survey and Construction Business Survey Index (CBSI), and significant differences were verified.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.103-114
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• 2015

The role of small and medium enterprises as an economic growth factor has been accentuated; consequently, the need to develop a business forecast model and indexes that accurately examine business situation of small and medium enterprises has increased. Most current business model and indexes concerning small and medium enterprises, released by public and private institutions, are based on Business Survey Index (BSI) and depend on subjective (business model and) indexes; therefore, the business model and indexes lack a capacity to grasp an accurate business situation of these enterprises. The business forecast model and indexes suggested in the study have been newly developed with Principal Component Analysis(PCA) and weight method to accurately measure a business situation based on reference dates addressed by the National Statistical Office(NSO). Empirical studies will be presented to prove that the newly proposed business model and indexes have their basis in statistical theory and their trend that resembles the existing Composite Index.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.54-62
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• 2012

Currently, construction engineering industry of high value and rapid growing has been viewed as a future oriented industry. Thus, compared to other industries, its analysis system for business trend seems insufficient. This research has developed a business survey index model targeted for construction engineering industries, and business trends for 4/4 quarter of 2011 as well as 1/4 quarter of 2012 were surveyed as important traits were analyzed. Business Survey Index of Construction Engineering has been constructed in form of an index in order to accurately judge different economic states of the industry such as funding areas, human resources, payability, ordering scale, status of domestic and foreign markets, Difficulties in Management, and improvements in policies. In the future, CEBSI will not only be applied on the construction engineering industry, but it will also be used as the economic state of all construction industries as well as the prospect data. Thus, it will be utilized as basic resources that can establish systematic and accurate policies.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.63-71
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• 2010

Business entrepreneurs reflect their views of domestic and foreign economic activities on their operation for the growth of their business. The decision, forecasting, and planning based on their economic sentiment affect business operation such as production, investment, and hiring and consequently affect condition of national economy. Business survey index(BSI) is compiled to get the information of business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment for the analysis of business condition. BSI has been used as an important variable in the short-term forecasting models for business cycle analysis, especially during the the period of extreme business fluctuations. Recent financial crisis has arised extreme business fluctuations similar to those caused by currency crisis at the end of 1997, and brought back the importance of BSI as a variable for the economic forecasting. In this paper, the meaning of BSI as an economic sentiment index is reviewed and a GUIDE regression tree is constructed to find out the factors which affect on BSI. The result shows that the variables related to the stability of financial market such as kospi index(Korea composite stock price index) and exchange rate as well as manufacturing operation ratio and consumer goods sales are main factors which affect business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.11 no.7
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• pp.2386-2395
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• 2010

The entrepreneurship is a key success factor of industrial development in global competitive environments. but there is no entrepreneurship index/indicator which gives comprehensive advantages for monitoring and forecasting entrepreneur environments in Korea. The purpose of the study is developing Entrepreneurship Survey Index(ESI) which considering various significant entrepreneur factors. The suggested ESI in this exploratory study consists of entrepreneurship business index(EBI), entrepreneurship environment index(EEI) and entrepreneurship preparation index(EPI). The EBI is composed of overall business factors which revised from practical studies and expert reviews. The EEI is mainly retrieved Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM) and partially modified by an expert advisor to identify entrepreneur environments. The EPI is developed for evaluating and confirming the capability, plan and intention of the pre-entrepreneurship. The practical survey of using the proposed ESI will enhance the power of forecasting the entrepreneurship environment changes and provide effective entrepreneurship policy making for stakeholder.

• Journal of Arbitration Studies
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.93-110
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• 2022

Korea, a resource-scarce country, has been undergoing export-led economic growth in the form of processing and intermediary trade for the past several decades. In Korea, which has an export-led economic structure centered on processing trade, the export economy precedes the domestic economy, so Korea's monthly export performance has been used as an important indicator of economic indicators in itself. In recent decades, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which account for 99% of the total number of domestic enterprises, account for about 35% of exports as of 2021. In this study, from the viewpoint of emphasizing the export contribution of SMEs, the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Export Business Index is developed based on the actual export performance of SMEs, through which this paper could present alternative index differentiated from the existing Business Survey Indexes.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.107-118
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• 2014

Electrical Construction industry uses Construction industry's statistical data for business outlook. Because there are not electrical construction business view's statistical data. It has own unique characteristic which is different from construction industry. So it must have a electrical construction Business Index. This study was focused on developing the business index of electrical construction business. Electrical construction business index consists of electrical construction composite Index(ECI) and the electrical construction business survey index(EBSI). This study experimentally analyzes the business views of electrical construction industry in 2/4 quarter of 2014. The leading Index of ECI indicates -0.4% compared with 1/4 quarter of 2014, coincidence index also shows that electrical construction industry's business cycle is in an economic downturn. EBSI is 83.5 in 2/4 quarter of 2014, down from 95.2 in 1/4 quarter of 2014. It means that electrical construction company has a pessimistic prediction. As a result we know that the Business Index of Electrical Construction Business shows similar results. It is expected to make contribution for electrical contractors to establish management strategies and prepare responses to economic changes by providing information about economic trends of electrical construction business and forecasting future economy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.263-274
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• 2010

Business survey index(BSI) is an economic forecasting index made on the basis of the past achievement of the company and enterpriser's plan and decision for the future. Even the index is very popular in economic situations, only a little research result is known to the public. In the paper we investigate statistical properties of BSI. We define population BSI in the finite population and estimate it unbiasedly. Also we derive the variance of the estimated BSI and its unbiased estimator. In addition, confidence interval of the estimated BSI is proposed. We asserte that confidence interval of the estimated BSI is more reasonable than the relative standard error.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.745-758
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• 2011

An Economic Sentiment Indicator(ESI) is a composite indicator of business survey indices(BSI) and consumer survey indices(CSI). The ESI designed to reflect economic agents' (this includes producers and consumers) overall perceptions of economic activity in a one-dimensional index. The European Commission has published an ESI since 1985. This paper demonstrates the construction of an ESI for the Korean economy. The BSI and CSI components (having a high correlation and a leading feature with respect to GDP) are selected to construct the ESI and they are aggregated using a weighted average and then scaled to have a long-term average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. Thus values greater than 100 indicate an above-average economic sentiment and vice versa. The newly constructed Korean ESI that extends to January 2003 shows a good tracking performance of GDP and adequately reflects the overall perception of economic activity.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.33-37
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• 2020

The aim of this paper is to scrutinize the relation between Business Survey Index and Industrial Production Index in construction industry, stated in another way, the relation between CEO's expectations of future business status and real business activity in construction industry. Previous papers on this research area have been examined the relation between released BSI and released IPI. However, this paper focuses 'the relation between released BSI and the long-run component of IPI' and 'the relation between released BSI and the short-run component of IPI'. The first step is to decompose released IPI by unobserved component model. The long-run component of IPI is set up as a random walk process. And short-run component is set up as a stationary AR(1) process. The findings are as follows. First, released BSI Granger causes unidirectionally released IPI. Second, there exists one-way Granger causality from released BSI to long-run component of IPI. Third, Granger causality does not exist between released BSI and 'short-run component of IPI'. BSI increases IPI in the second or third month. These findings of this paper mean that CEO's expectations may influence industrial production in construction industry.