• Title/Summary/Keyword: Business Model Approach

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Semantic Visualization of Dynamic Topic Modeling (다이내믹 토픽 모델링의 의미적 시각화 방법론)

  • Yeon, Jinwook;Boo, Hyunkyung;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.131-154
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    • 2022
  • Recently, researches on unstructured data analysis have been actively conducted with the development of information and communication technology. In particular, topic modeling is a representative technique for discovering core topics from massive text data. In the early stages of topic modeling, most studies focused only on topic discovery. As the topic modeling field matured, studies on the change of the topic according to the change of time began to be carried out. Accordingly, interest in dynamic topic modeling that handle changes in keywords constituting the topic is also increasing. Dynamic topic modeling identifies major topics from the data of the initial period and manages the change and flow of topics in a way that utilizes topic information of the previous period to derive further topics in subsequent periods. However, it is very difficult to understand and interpret the results of dynamic topic modeling. The results of traditional dynamic topic modeling simply reveal changes in keywords and their rankings. However, this information is insufficient to represent how the meaning of the topic has changed. Therefore, in this study, we propose a method to visualize topics by period by reflecting the meaning of keywords in each topic. In addition, we propose a method that can intuitively interpret changes in topics and relationships between or among topics. The detailed method of visualizing topics by period is as follows. In the first step, dynamic topic modeling is implemented to derive the top keywords of each period and their weight from text data. In the second step, we derive vectors of top keywords of each topic from the pre-trained word embedding model. Then, we perform dimension reduction for the extracted vectors. Then, we formulate a semantic vector of each topic by calculating weight sum of keywords in each vector using topic weight of each keyword. In the third step, we visualize the semantic vector of each topic using matplotlib, and analyze the relationship between or among the topics based on the visualized result. The change of topic can be interpreted in the following manners. From the result of dynamic topic modeling, we identify rising top 5 keywords and descending top 5 keywords for each period to show the change of the topic. Existing many topic visualization studies usually visualize keywords of each topic, but our approach proposed in this study differs from previous studies in that it attempts to visualize each topic itself. To evaluate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology, we performed an experiment on 1,847 abstracts of artificial intelligence-related papers. The experiment was performed by dividing abstracts of artificial intelligence-related papers into three periods (2016-2017, 2018-2019, 2020-2021). We selected seven topics based on the consistency score, and utilized the pre-trained word embedding model of Word2vec trained with 'Wikipedia', an Internet encyclopedia. Based on the proposed methodology, we generated a semantic vector for each topic. Through this, by reflecting the meaning of keywords, we visualized and interpreted the themes by period. Through these experiments, we confirmed that the rising and descending of the topic weight of a keyword can be usefully used to interpret the semantic change of the corresponding topic and to grasp the relationship among topics. In this study, to overcome the limitations of dynamic topic modeling results, we used word embedding and dimension reduction techniques to visualize topics by era. The results of this study are meaningful in that they broadened the scope of topic understanding through the visualization of dynamic topic modeling results. In addition, the academic contribution can be acknowledged in that it laid the foundation for follow-up studies using various word embeddings and dimensionality reduction techniques to improve the performance of the proposed methodology.

An Empirical Study on Perceived Value and Continuous Intention to Use of Smart Phone, and the Moderating Effect of Personal Innovativeness (스마트폰의 지각된 가치와 지속적 사용의도, 그리고 개인 혁신성의 조절효과)

  • Han, Joonhyoung;Kang, Sungbae;Moon, Taesoo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.53-84
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    • 2013
  • With rapid development of ICT (Information and Communications Technology), new services by the convergence of mobile network and application technology began to appear. Today, smart phone with new ICT convergence network capabilities is exceedingly popular and very useful as a new tool for the development of business opportunities. Previous studies based on Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) suggested critical factors, which should be considered for acquiring new customers and maintaining existing users in smart phone market. However, they had a limitation to focus on technology acceptance, not value based approach. Prior studies on customer's adoption of electronic utilities like smart phone product showed that the antecedents such as the perceived benefit and the perceived sacrifice could explain the causality between what is perceived and what is acquired over diverse contexts. So, this research conceptualizes perceived value as a trade-off between perceived benefit and perceived sacrifice, and we need to research the perceived value to grasp user's continuous intention to use of smart phone. The purpose of this study is to investigate the structured relationship between benefit (quality, usefulness, playfulness) and sacrifice (technicality, cost, security risk) of smart phone users, perceived value, and continuous intention to use. In addition, this study intends to analyze the differences between two subgroups of smart phone users by the degree of personal innovativeness. Personal innovativeness could help us to understand the moderating effect between how perceptions are formed and continuous intention to use smart phone. This study conducted survey through e-mail, direct mail, and interview with smart phone users. Empirical analysis based on 330 respondents was conducted in order to test the hypotheses. First, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived usefulness among three factors of perceived benefit has the highest positive impact on perceived value, and then followed by perceived playfulness and perceived quality. Second, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived cost among three factors of perceived sacrifice has significantly negative impact on perceived value, however, technicality and security risk have no significant impact on perceived value. Also, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived value has significant direct impact on continuous intention to use of smart phone. In this regard, marketing managers of smart phone company should pay more attention to improve task efficiency and performance of smart phone, including rate systems of smart phone. Additionally, to test the moderating effect of personal innovativeness, this research conducted multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users. In a group with high level of innovativeness, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived playfulness was the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result of the group with high level of innovativeness explains that innovators and early adopters are able to cope with higher level of cost and risk, and they expect to develop more positive intentions toward higher performance through the use of an innovation. Also, hedonic behavior in the case of the group with low level of innovativeness aims to provide self-fulfilling value to the users, in contrast to utilitarian perspective, which aims to provide instrumental value to the users. However, with regard to perceived sacrifice, both groups in general showed negative impact on perceived value. Also, the group with high level of innovativeness had less overall negative impact on perceived value compared to the group with low level of innovativeness across all factors. In both group with high level of innovativeness and with low level of innovativeness, perceived cost has the highest negative influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with high level of innovativeness showed that perceived technicality was the positive factor to influence perceived value than others. However, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived security risk was the second high negative factor to influence perceived value than others. Unlike previous studies, this study focuses on influencing factors on continuous intention to use of smart phone, rather than considering initial purchase and adoption of smart phone. First, perceived value, which was used to identify user's adoption behavior, has a mediating effect among perceived benefit, perceived sacrifice, and continuous intention to use smart phone. Second, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value, while perceived cost has significant negative influence on perceived value. Third, perceived value, like prior studies, has high level of positive influence on continuous intention to use smart phone. Fourth, in multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users, perceived usefulness, in a group with high level of innovativeness, has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, perceived playfulness, in a group with low level of innovativeness, has the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result shows that early adopters intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their job useful, instead market followers intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their time enjoyable. In terms of marketing strategy for smart phone company, marketing managers should pay more attention to identify their customers' lifetime value by the phase of smart phone adoption, as well as to understand their behavior intention to accept the risk and uncertainty positively. The academic contribution of this study primarily is to employ the VAM (Value-based Adoption Model) as a conceptual foundation, compared to TAM (Technology Acceptance Model) used widely by previous studies. VAM is useful for understanding continuous intention to use smart phone in comparison with TAM as a new IT utility by individual adoption. Perceived value dominantly influences continuous intention to use smart phone. The results of this study justify our research model adoption on each antecedent of perceived value as a benefit and a sacrifice component. While TAM could be widely used in user acceptance of new technology, it has a limitation to explain the new IT adoption like smart phone, because of customer behavior intention to choose the value of the object. In terms of theoretical approach, this study provides theoretical contribution to the development, design, and marketing of smart phone. The practical contribution of this study is to suggest useful decision alternatives concerned to marketing strategy formulation for acquiring and retaining long-term customers related to smart phone business. Since potential customers are interested in both benefit and sacrifice when evaluating the value of smart phone, marketing managers in smart phone company has to put more effort into creating customer's value of low sacrifice and high benefit so that customers will continuously have higher adoption on smart phone. Especially, this study shows that innovators and early adopters with high level of innovativeness have higher adoption than market followers with low level of innovativeness, in terms of perceived usefulness and perceived cost. To formulate marketing strategy for smart phone diffusion, marketing managers have to pay more attention to identify not only their customers' benefit and sacrifice components but also their customers' lifetime value to adopt smart phone.

How to improve the accuracy of recommendation systems: Combining ratings and review texts sentiment scores (평점과 리뷰 텍스트 감성분석을 결합한 추천시스템 향상 방안 연구)

  • Hyun, Jiyeon;Ryu, Sangyi;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.219-239
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    • 2019
  • As the importance of providing customized services to individuals becomes important, researches on personalized recommendation systems are constantly being carried out. Collaborative filtering is one of the most popular systems in academia and industry. However, there exists limitation in a sense that recommendations were mostly based on quantitative information such as users' ratings, which made the accuracy be lowered. To solve these problems, many studies have been actively attempted to improve the performance of the recommendation system by using other information besides the quantitative information. Good examples are the usages of the sentiment analysis on customer review text data. Nevertheless, the existing research has not directly combined the results of the sentiment analysis and quantitative rating scores in the recommendation system. Therefore, this study aims to reflect the sentiments shown in the reviews into the rating scores. In other words, we propose a new algorithm that can directly convert the user 's own review into the empirically quantitative information and reflect it directly to the recommendation system. To do this, we needed to quantify users' reviews, which were originally qualitative information. In this study, sentiment score was calculated through sentiment analysis technique of text mining. The data was targeted for movie review. Based on the data, a domain specific sentiment dictionary is constructed for the movie reviews. Regression analysis was used as a method to construct sentiment dictionary. Each positive / negative dictionary was constructed using Lasso regression, Ridge regression, and ElasticNet methods. Based on this constructed sentiment dictionary, the accuracy was verified through confusion matrix. The accuracy of the Lasso based dictionary was 70%, the accuracy of the Ridge based dictionary was 79%, and that of the ElasticNet (${\alpha}=0.3$) was 83%. Therefore, in this study, the sentiment score of the review is calculated based on the dictionary of the ElasticNet method. It was combined with a rating to create a new rating. In this paper, we show that the collaborative filtering that reflects sentiment scores of user review is superior to the traditional method that only considers the existing rating. In order to show that the proposed algorithm is based on memory-based user collaboration filtering, item-based collaborative filtering and model based matrix factorization SVD, and SVD ++. Based on the above algorithm, the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) are calculated to evaluate the recommendation system with a score that combines sentiment scores with a system that only considers scores. When the evaluation index was MAE, it was improved by 0.059 for UBCF, 0.0862 for IBCF, 0.1012 for SVD and 0.188 for SVD ++. When the evaluation index is RMSE, UBCF is 0.0431, IBCF is 0.0882, SVD is 0.1103, and SVD ++ is 0.1756. As a result, it can be seen that the prediction performance of the evaluation point reflecting the sentiment score proposed in this paper is superior to that of the conventional evaluation method. In other words, in this paper, it is confirmed that the collaborative filtering that reflects the sentiment score of the user review shows superior accuracy as compared with the conventional type of collaborative filtering that only considers the quantitative score. We then attempted paired t-test validation to ensure that the proposed model was a better approach and concluded that the proposed model is better. In this study, to overcome limitations of previous researches that judge user's sentiment only by quantitative rating score, the review was numerically calculated and a user's opinion was more refined and considered into the recommendation system to improve the accuracy. The findings of this study have managerial implications to recommendation system developers who need to consider both quantitative information and qualitative information it is expect. The way of constructing the combined system in this paper might be directly used by the developers.

Research Framework for International Franchising (국제프랜차이징 연구요소 및 연구방향)

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Lim, Young-Kyun;Shim, Jae-Duck
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.61-118
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this research is to construct research framework for international franchising based on existing literature and to identify research components in the framework. Franchise can be defined as management styles that allow franchisee use various management assets of franchisor in order to make or sell product or service. It can be divided into product distribution franchise that is designed to sell products and business format franchise that is designed for running it as business whatever its form is. International franchising can be defined as a way of internationalization of franchisor to foreign country by providing its business format or package to franchisee of host country. International franchising is growing fast for last four decades but academic research on this is quite limited. Especially in Korea, research about international franchising is carried out on by case study format with single case or empirical study format with survey based on domestic franchise theory. Therefore, this paper tries to review existing literature on international franchising research, providing research framework, and then stimulating new research on this field. International franchising research components include motives and environmental factors for decision of expanding to international franchising, entrance modes and development plan for international franchising, contracts and management strategy of international franchising, and various performance measures from different perspectives. First, motives of international franchising are fee collection from franchisee. Also it provides easier way to expanding to foreign country. The other motives including increase total sales volume, occupying better strategic position, getting quality resources, and improving efficiency. Environmental factors that facilitating international franchising encompasses economic condition, trend, and legal or political factors in host and/or home countries. In addition, control power and risk management capability of franchisor plays critical role in successful franchising contract. Final decision to enter foreign country via franchising is determined by numerous factors like history, size, growth, competitiveness, management system, bonding capability, industry characteristics of franchisor. After deciding to enter into foreign country, franchisor needs to set entrance modes of international franchising. Within contractual mode, there are master franchising and area developing franchising, licensing, direct franchising, and joint venture. Theories about entrance mode selection contain concepts of efficiency, knowledge-based approach, competence-based approach, agent theory, and governance cost. The next step after entrance decision is operation strategy. Operation strategy starts with selecting a target city and a target country for franchising. In order to finding, screening targets, franchisor needs to collect information about candidates. Critical information includes brand patent, commercial laws, regulations, market conditions, country risk, and industry analysis. After selecting a target city in target country, franchisor needs to select franchisee, in other word, partner. The first important criteria for selecting partners are financial credibility and capability, possession of real estate. And cultural similarity and knowledge about franchisor and/or home country are also recognized as critical criteria. The most important element in operating strategy is legal document between franchisor and franchisee with home and host countries. Terms and conditions in legal documents give objective information about characteristics of franchising agreement for academic research. Legal documents have definitions of terminology, territory and exclusivity, agreement of term, initial fee, continuing fees, clearing currency, and rights about sub-franchising. Also, legal documents could have terms about softer elements like training program and operation manual. And harder elements like law competent court and terms of expiration. Next element in operating strategy is about product and service. Especially for business format franchising, product/service deliverable, benefit communicators, system identifiers (architectural features), and format facilitators are listed for product/service strategic elements. Another important decision on product/service is standardization vs. customization. The rationale behind standardization is cost reduction, efficiency, consistency, image congruence, brand awareness, and competitiveness on price. Also standardization enables large scale R&D and innovative change in management style. Another element in operating strategy is control management. The simple way to control franchise contract is relying on legal terms, contractual control system. There are other control systems, administrative control system and ethical control system. Contractual control system is a coercive source of power, but franchisor usually doesn't want to use legal power since it doesn't help to build up positive relationship. Instead, self-regulation is widely used. Administrative control system uses control mechanism from ordinary work relationship. Its main component is supporting activities to franchisee and communication method. For example, franchisor provides advertising, training, manual, and delivery, then franchisee follows franchisor's direction. Another component is building franchisor's brand power. The last research element is performance factor of international franchising. Performance elements can be divided into franchisor's performance and franchisee's performance. The conceptual performance measures of franchisor are simple but not easy to obtain objectively. They are profit, sale, cost, experience, and brand power. The performance measures of franchisee are mostly about benefits of host country. They contain small business development, promotion of employment, introduction of new business model, and level up technology status. There are indirect benefits, like increase of tax, refinement of corporate citizenship, regional economic clustering, and improvement of international balance. In addition to those, host country gets socio-cultural change other than economic effects. It includes demographic change, social trend, customer value change, social communication, and social globalization. Sometimes it is called as westernization or McDonaldization of society. In addition, the paper reviews on theories that have been frequently applied to international franchising research, such as agent theory, resource-based view, transaction cost theory, organizational learning theory, and international expansion theories. Resource based theory is used in strategic decision based on resources, like decision about entrance and cooperation depending on resources of franchisee and franchisor. Transaction cost theory can be applied in determination of mutual trust or satisfaction of franchising players. Agent theory tries to explain strategic decision for reducing problem caused by utilizing agent, for example research on control system in franchising agreements. Organizational Learning theory is relatively new in franchising research. It assumes organization tries to maximize performance and learning of organization. In addition, Internalization theory advocates strategic decision of direct investment for removing inefficiency of market transaction and is applied in research on terms of contract. And oligopolistic competition theory is used to explain various entry modes for international expansion. Competency theory support strategic decision of utilizing key competitive advantage. Furthermore, research methodologies including qualitative and quantitative methodologies are suggested for more rigorous international franchising research. Quantitative research needs more real data other than survey data which is usually respondent's judgment. In order to verify theory more rigorously, research based on real data is essential. However, real quantitative data is quite hard to get. The qualitative research other than single case study is also highly recommended. Since international franchising has limited number of applications, scientific research based on grounded theory and ethnography study can be used. Scientific case study is differentiated with single case study on its data collection method and analysis method. The key concept is triangulation in measurement, logical coding and comparison. Finally, it provides overall research direction for international franchising after summarizing research trend in Korea. International franchising research in Korea has two different types, one is for studying Korean franchisor going overseas and the other is for Korean franchisee of foreign franchisor. Among research on Korean franchisor, two common patterns are observed. First of all, they usually deal with success story of one franchisor. The other common pattern is that they focus on same industry and country. Therefore, international franchise research needs to extend their focus to broader subjects with scientific research methodology as well as development of new theory.

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Knowledge Production Function in South Korea : An Empirical Analysis (우리나라 지식생산함수 : 실증분석)

  • Cho, Sang-Sup;Jung, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.383-405
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    • 2007
  • In this paper we estimate knowledge production function for 15 South Korean industry sectors using panel data. To accommodate the influence of inter-sectoral interactions on the creation of knowledge, we estimate parameters for related knowledge production functions using the Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression(DSUR) model proposed by Mark et al. (2005). We find the elasticity of knowledge production with respect to the size of research staff to be 0.25 and that with respect to the existing stock of knowledge to be 0.35. The fact that the elasticity of new knowledge creation with regard to the existing knowledge stock is below 1 in South Korea corroborates the view that the rate of long-term growth of her economy is chiefly determined by the elasticity related to production functions of goods and services and the rate of population growth, and that her government policy, to ensure a continued growth for the Korean economy, must shift the focus of R&D policies from the current direct intervention-centered model to one consisting of indirect measures, namely supporting knowledge management and diffusion and the creation of a knowledge sharing system. In terms of R&D policy implications it could be consider that the national knowledge production system should strengthen the cumulative process of knowledge accumulation and population for research and development. Our country R&D policy, also, need to adopt a global approach to increase knowledge stock at the highest levels of a country.

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An analytic Study on Elementary School Students Number of increasing and decreasing Trends in Large City - Focusing on the Case in Daejeon Metropolitan City - (대도시 초등학교별 학생수 증감 추세 분석에 관한 연구 - 대전시 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Yong-Gi
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to provide a basis for determining when a school established long term school plans accepted by analyzing the trend of increase or decrease elementary school students 30 years to target of Daejeon Metropolitan City. Most were analyzed for land development area of Yuseong-Gu, and most of the old downtown area of Dong-Gu for this purpose. Results of this study are as follows: First, the results of this research to analyze the number of students increase or decrease trend forecasting model specific case in residential development projects in the district are Model8 4 schools (11.8%) in Yuseong-Gu were compared higher than one schools (4.3%) in the Dong-Gu. This suggests the need for a cautious approach in the planning of schools accommodated in a large housing development district. Second, large-scale land development trend analysis results Students sensitized Yuseong-Gu business district is followed by a new school in 11 schools (29.7%), Old town in Dong-Gu, which is contrary 13 schools (56.5%) were in a downturn.

Technical Value Model and Evaluation for Smart In-vehicle Network (스마트 차량내(內) 네트워크 기술가치 모델 및 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Woon
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.368-386
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to present the technology value model based on profit approach and IITP practical guide for Ethernet network technology, which is the core technology of autonomous vehicles and connected cars in the hyper-connected industry. In-vehicle network, Ethernet technology, Ethernet port count, port pricing, and application data for technology assessment are sources of global market research organizations. The data on the company's COGS (Cost of Goods Sold), operating capital requirement, capital expenditure, and income statement data are used by the Bank of Korea's Business Analysis Report. According to the results of the study, the product market size was estimated to be US $470.3 billion and the technology market size was $52.1 billion over the seven years of economic life cycle of technology. The market value of the technology was estimated to be $260 million reflecting the possibility of entry into the market. In the case of the corporate management analysis report, the average value of the IITP and the top 25% were $0.7 million and $40.2 million, respectively. -27.8 million, and -73.6 million dollars respectively. This implies that government support for policy support is needed when conducting corporate R&D with high cost-to-sales ratio. The results of this study can be used as a reference for the evaluation of technology demand based ICT R&D technology in the industrial internet market in the fourth industrial revolution era.

The Impact of Franchisor's Economic and Philanthropic CSR on Franchisees' Economic Satisfaction, Social Satisfaction, and Loyalty (프랜차이즈 본부의 경제적 책임과 박애주의적 책임이 가맹점의 경제적 만족, 사회적 만족, 그리고 충성도에 미치는 영향)

  • HUR, Soon-Beom;NOR, Yong-Sook;LEE, Debora
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The major objective of this study was to investigate the effect of franchisor's (economic and philanthropic) CSR in inspiring franchisee's loyalty for the franchisor. Another aim of this investigation also was to clarify the mediating role of economic and social satisfaction in the relationship between franchisor's CSR and franchisee's loyalty. Research design, data, and methodology - This study explores the structural relationship between franchisor's CSR and franchisee's loyalty and in these relationships, the mediating role of relationship satisfaction. Data were gathered from employees(above manager) in food-service franchisee companies in Seoul, Korea. The questionnaires were distributed to managers of the franchise stores. A total of 251 questionnaires were collected. Data management and analysis were performed using SPSS 21.O and SmartPLS 3.0. Evaluation of measurement model and structural model was carried out using confirmatory factor analysis and correlation analysis. Result - The results of this study show as follows. First, economic CSR had positive effects on economic satisfaction and social satisfaction. Second, philanthropic CSR had positive effects on social satisfaction. Third, economic satisfaction and social satisfaction had positive effects on franchisee's loyalty to the franchisor. Conclusions - The important implications of this study have as follows. First, this study has found that economic CSR can create a high economic satisfaction and social satisfaction of franchisee. Second, this findings suggest that the philanthropic CSR can improve the social satisfaction of franchisee. Third, this results demonstrate, for the first time, that the economic satisfaction and social satisfaction of franchisees can play a crucial role to improve their loyalty for the franchisor and pursue mutual development by maintaining the stable business relationship with a franchisor. In this investigation there are at least three limitations. First, Because the research sample is limited to the foodservice franchisee in Seoul, it is not possible to be representativeness of the national franchisee. Second, CSR activities are mostly focused on large franchise companies. Therefore, there is a limit to the research approach. Finally, this study examined the effect of economic CSR and philanthropic CSR on the loyalty of franchisors, but in the future study, it is necessary to analyze the relationship between CSR and loyalty of franchise companies by collecting specific quantitative data such as re-contract rate and management performance of franchisees.

Effective Capacity Planning of Capital Market IT System: Reflecting Sentiment Index (자본시장 IT시스템 효율적 용량계획 모델: 심리지수 활용을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Kukhyung;Kim, Miyea;Park, Jaeyoung;Kim, Beomsoo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.89-109
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    • 2022
  • Due to COVID-19 and soaring participation of individual investors, large-scale transactions exceeding system capacity limits have been reported frequently in the capital market. The capital market IT systems, which the impact of system failure is very critical, have encountered unexpectedly tremendous transactions in 2020, resulting in a sharp increase in system failures. Despite the fact that many companies maintained large-scale system capacity planning policies, recent transaction influx suggests that a new approach to capacity planning is required. Therefore, this study developed capital market IT system capacity planning models using machine learning techniques and analyzed those performances. In addition, the performance of the best proposed model was improved by using sentiment index that can promptly reflect the behavior of investors. The model uses empirical data including the COVID-19 period, and has high performance and stability that can be used in practice. In practical significance, this study maximizes the cost-efficiency of a company, but also presents optimal parameters in consideration of the practical constraints involved in changing the system. Additionally, by proving that the sentiment index can be used as a major variable in system capacity planning, it shows that the sentiment index can be actively used for various other forecasting demands.

Changes in Stock Market Co-movements between Contracting Parties after the Trade Agreement and Their Implications

  • So-Young Ahn;Yeon-Ho Bae
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.139-158
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The study of co-movements between stock markets is a crucial area of finance and has recently received much interest in a variety of studies, especially in international finance. Stock market co-movements are a major phenomenon in financial markets, but they are not necessarily independent of the real market. Several studies support the idea that bilateral trade linkages significantly impact stock market correlations. Motivated by this perspective, this study investigates whether real market integration due to trade agreements brings about financial market integration in terms of stock market co-movement. Design/methodology - Over the 10 free trade agreements (FTAs) signed by the United States, using a dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) multivariate GARCH (MGRACH) model, we empirically measure the degree of integration by finding DCCs between the US market and the partner country's market. We then track how these correlations evolve over time and compare the results before and after trade agreements. Findings - According to the empirical results, there are positive return spillover effects from the US market to eight counterpart equity markets, except Jordan, Morocco, and Singapore. Especially Mexico, Canada, and Chile have large return spillover effects at the 1% significance level. All partner countries of FTAs generally have positive correlations with the US over the entire period, but the size and variance are somewhat different by country. Meanwhile, not all countries that signed trade agreements with the United States showed the same pattern of stock market co-movement after the agreement. Korea, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Singapore show increasing DCC patterns after trade agreements with the US. However, Canada, Australia, Bahrain, Jordan, and Morocco do not show different patterns before and after trade agreements in DCCs. These countries generally have the characteristic of relatively lower or higher co-movements in stock markets with the US before the signing of the FTAs. Originality/value - To our knowledge, few studies have directly examined the linkages between trade agreements and stock markets. Our approach is novel as it considers the problem of conditional heteroscedasticity and visualizes the change of correlations with time variations. Moreover, analyzing several trade agreements based on the United States enables the results of cross-country pairs to be compared. Hence, this study provides information on the degree of stock market integration with countries with which the United States has trade agreements, while simultaneously allowing us to track whether there have been changes in stock market integration patterns before and after trade agreements.