• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.85-100
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• 2023

The stochastic volatility (SV) model is one of the main methods of modeling time-varying volatility. In particular, SV model is actively used in estimation and prediction of financial market volatility and option pricing. This paper attempts to model the time-varying volatility of the bitcoin market price using SV model. Hidden Markov model (HMM) is combined with the SV model to capture characteristics of regime switching of the market. The HMM is useful for recognizing patterns of time series to divide the regime of market volatility. This study estimated the volatility of bitcoin by using data from Upbit, a cryptocurrency trading site, and analyzed it by dividing the volatility regime of the market to improve the performance of the SV model. The MCMC technique is used to estimate the parameters of the SV model, and the performance of the model is verified through evaluation criteria such as MAPE and MSE.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.9 no.9
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• pp.83-88
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• 2018

The blockchain is the technique which is used in decentralized system instead of centralized system. Its characteristics are anonymous and transparency. However, there are still some traditional attacks. In this paper, we introduced some of the famous consensus algorithm with blockchain: Bitcoin, Algorand, and IOTA. Also, this paper talked about how each consensus algorithm tried to solve those traditional attacks such as double spending attack or sybil attack. Furthermore, if the consensus algorithm does not consider those attacks yet, then the author would introduce additional methods to solve those attacks. Furthermore, this paper proposed the new scenario that can make classical attacks be happened.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.79-90
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• 2016

It is current status that currently-used 'electronic cash' cannot go beyond the physically and commonly-used as it is used by digitalizing the existing commodity money. Especially in case of bitcoin, though it is issued only by the activity called 'mining' without the issuing body and used in some countries in relatively-active way as it is admitted as the currency in the way that proves the transaction through 'BlockChain' in the form of P2P for the transaction among the individuals, it has several issues due to the characteristics it has. So, this research is willing to suggest the alternative plan to matter of policy, managerial and technical problems regarding the vitalization plan of bitcoin.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.8
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• pp.695-704
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• 2020

Bitcoin and other prominent cryptocurrencies have gained much attention since the last several years. Globally known as digital coin and virtual currency, this cryptocurrency is gained and traded within the blockchain system. The blockchain technology adopted in using the cryptocurrency has raised the eyebrows within the banking sector, government, stakeholders and individual investors. The rise of the cryptocurrency within this decade since the inception of Bitcoin in 2009 has taken the market by storm. Cryptocurrency is anticipated as the future currency that might replace the current paper currency worldwide. Even though the interest has caught the attention of users, many are not aware of its opportunities, drawbacks and challenges for the future. Researches on cryptocurrencies are still lacking and still at its infancy stage. In providing substantial guide and view to the academic field and users, this paper will discuss the opportunities in the cryptocurrency such as the security of its technology, low transaction cost and high investment return. The originality of this paper is on the discussion within law and regulation, high energy consumption, possibility of crash and bubble, and attacks on network. The future undertakings of cryptocurrency and its application will be systematically reviewed in this paper.

• Journal of Multimedia Information System
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.197-202
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• 2021

Bitcoin and blockchain are often making headlines not only on TV or media but also among the public in today's society. These technologies have been developed after the risk of the centralized financial system came to the fore during the 2007 global financial crisis. Since then, an anonymous inventor called Satoshi Nakamoto penned the bitcoin white paper where a blockchain-based reference implementation was introduced. Bitcoin was able to achieve unprecedented growth by positioning itself as one of the top global currencies in terms of market capitalization after five years since its development. The pace of Vietnam's economic development is notably fast among Asian nations, while the nation was expected to be a Southeast Asian blockchain hub but they have banned virtual currency trading recently. However, they've also designated the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) as a responsible agency for the research of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies, the construction of a service ecosystem, and their test operations. The fast-growing economy, increasing number of smartphone users, and the Vietnam government's support policies for startups substantiate these efforts. Therefore, this paper attempts to study the current status of Vietnam's blockchain technology that has been considered to be the center of blockchain systems right behind Singapore, and its implications for Korean companies.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.173-187
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• 2018

After Satoshi Nakamoto published 'Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system' in 2008, Blockchain has been GPT (General Purpose Technologies) that affect the whole cycle of the $4^{th}$ Industrial Revolution. This study attempted to identify the innovativeness of Blockchain. Because of Blockchain's ambidextrous characteristics, Blockchain has two kinds of innovativeness, technological innovation by physical technology and social innovation by social technology. Thus, this study will be useful to increase understanding and establishing strategy for Blockchain.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.171-179
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• 2021

In the international markets, financial variables can be volatile and may affect each other, especially in the crisis times. COVID-19, which began in China in 2019 and spread to many countries of the world, created a crisis not only in the global health system but also in the international financial markets and economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the contagious effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of selected financial variables such as Bitcoin, gold, oil price, and exchange rates and the connections between the volatilities of these variables during the pandemic. For this aim, we use the ARMA-EGARCH model to measure the impact of volatility and shocks. In other words, it is aimed to measure whether the impact of the shock on the financial variables of the contagiousness of the epidemic is also transmitted to the markets. The data was collected from secondary and daily data from September 2th 2019 to December 20th, 2020. It can be said that the findings obtained have statistically significant effects on the conditional variability of the variables. Therefore, there are findings that the shocks in the market are contaminated with each other.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.41-52
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• 2023

The purpose of this study is to review the proposed solutions to the Blockchain trilemma put forward by various research scholars and to draw conclusions by comparing the findings of each study. We found that the models so far developed either compromise scalability, decentralization, or security. The first model compromises decentralization. By partially centralizing the network, transaction processing speed can be improved, but security strength is weakened. Examples of this include Algorand and EOS. Because Algorand randomly selects the node that decides the consensus, the security of Algorand is better than EOS, wherein a designated selector decides. The second model recognizes that scalability causes a delay in speed when transactions are included in a block, reducing the system's efficiency. Compromising scalability makes it possible to increase decentralization. Representative examples include Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin is more vital than Ethereum in terms of security, but in terms of scalability, Ethereum is superior to Bitcoin. In the third model, information is stored and managed through various procedures at the expense of security. The application case is to weaken security by applying a layer 1 or 2 solution that stores and reroutes information. The expected effect of this study is to provide a new perspective on the trilemma debate and to stimulate interest in continued research into the problem.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.19-32
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• 2021

Bitcoin, a representative cryptocurrency, is receiving a lot of attention around the world, and the price of Bitcoin shows high volatility. High volatility is a risk factor for investors and causes social problems caused by reckless investment. Since the price of Bitcoin responds quickly to changes in the world environment, we propose to predict the price volatility of Bitcoin by utilizing news information that provides a variety of information in real-time. In other words, positive news stimulates investor sentiment and negative news weakens investor sentiment. Therefore, in this study, sentiment information of news and deep learning were applied to predict the change in Bitcoin yield. A single predictive model of logit, artificial neural network, SVM, and LSTM was built, and an integrated model was proposed as a method to improve predictive performance. As a result of comparing the performance of the prediction model built on the historical price information and the prediction model reflecting the sentiment information of the news, it was found that the integrated model based on the sentiment information of the news was the best. This study will be able to prevent reckless investment and provide useful information to investors to make wise investments through a predictive model.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.129-148
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• 2023

Bitcoin is a blockchain technology-based digital currency that has been recognized as a representative cryptocurrency and a financial investment asset. Due to its highly volatile nature, Bitcoin has gained a lot of attention from investors and the public. Based on this popularity, numerous studies have been conducted on price and trend prediction using machine learning and deep learning. This study employed LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) and CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), which have shown potential for predictive performance in the finance domain, to enhance the classification accuracy in Bitcoin price trend prediction. XAI(eXplainable Artificial Intelligence) techniques were applied to the predictive model to enhance its explainability and interpretability by providing a comprehensive explanation of the model. In the empirical experiment, CNN was applied to technical indicators and Google trend data to build a Bitcoin price trend prediction model, and the CNN model using both technical indicators and Google trend data clearly outperformed the other models using neural networks, SVM, and LSTM. Then SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to the predictive model to obtain explanations about the output values. Important prediction drivers in input variables were extracted through global interpretation, and the interpretation of the predictive model's decision process for each instance was suggested through local interpretation. The results show that our proposed research framework demonstrates both improved classification accuracy and explainability by using CNN, Google trend data, and SHAP.