• Title/Summary/Keyword: Birthrate

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A Study on the Population Estimation of Small Areas using Explainable Machine Learning: Focused on the Busan Metropolitan City (해석가능한 기계학습을 적용한 소지역 인구 추정에 관한 연구: 부산광역시를 대상으로)

  • Yu-Hyun KIM;Donghyun KIM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.97-115
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    • 2023
  • In recent years, the structure of the population has been changing rapidly, with a declining birthrate and aging population, and the inequality of population distribution is expanding. At this point, changes in population estimation methods are required, and more accurate estimates are needed at the subregional level. This study aims to estimate the population in 2040 at the 500m grid level by applying an explainable machine learning to Busan in order to respond to this need for a change in population estimation method. Comparing the results of population estimation by applying the explainable machine learning and the cohort component method, we found that the machine learning produces lower errors and is more applicable to estimating areas with large population changes. This is because machine learning can account for a combination of variables that are likely to affect demographic change. Overestimated population values in a declining population period are likely to cause problems in urban planning, such as inefficiency of investment and overinvestment in certain sectors, resulting in a decrease in quality in other sectors. Underestimated population values can also accelerate the shrinkage of cities and reduce the quality of life, so there is a need to develop appropriate population estimation methods and alternatives.

A Study on Establishment of Safety Training Center Based on Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality Technology for Military Safety and Suicide Accident Prevention (가상현실(VR/AR) 기술 기반으로 군 안전 및 자살사고 예방을 위한 안전체험훈련장 구축 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Sung-oh;Min, Yong-sik;Kim, Sung-Il;Ghoi, Jong-geun
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2020
  • Due to change in circumstances in the 2000s such as severe birthrate decline and shortened military service period, the armed forces of the Republic of Korea is currently turning to technologies and equipments from manpower, developing it to become high-tech, high-speed, and complex, resulting in an environment in which a single mistake could cause a mass mortality crisis.It is also evident that, considering aspects such as safety training curriculums and achievements of advanced countries and private education, hands-on training is a must in preventing suicides and accidents in the military, and establishing safety training centers is crucial for systematic and effective hands-on training.Soldiers who are joining the army as of now have experienced the Internet ever since they were born and easily use both virtual and augmented reality, and the current level of science and technology has developed to the point where most of the public safety experience centers are able to be replaced by virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR). Therefore, considering the aspects such as installation space, construction costs, maintenance costs, user characteristics, and education effects, other than for those trainings where real models and objects are more effective such as first aid training, it is with a strong recommendation that establishing military safety training facilities with VR/AR (Virtual and augmented reality) is a must in the coming future. We have derived the need for hands-on training by considering the development of virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR), analysis of operation status of the public safety experience centers, characteristics of military units, installation and maintenance costs, and proposed plan to establish safety training centers where effective training performance can be achieved at a lower cost than the public safety experience center. In addition, we suggested the scale of the required safety training center and the composition of the experience rooms considering the number of trainees and the environment of each military units. Given this analysis it will contribute to the prevention of military safety and suicide by building a safety training center in the future.

Examination of Generating Mechanism Concerning Father's Participation in Child-rearing (맞벌이 가정 부친의 육아참가 발생과정)

  • Park, Ji-Sun;Kondo, Rie;Kim, Jung-Suk;Sasai, Tsukasa;Takahashi, Shigesato;Park, Chun-Man;Nakajima, Kazuo
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2009
  • Objectives: This purpose of this study was to make clear the fitness to data of the causality model related to father's child-rearing participation in a double-income household. Methods: Subjects of this survey consisted of the fathers of 2,006 households that use 21 day-care centers and 4 kindergartens whose cooperation was received via the city government departments that have jurisdiction over day-care centers and kindergartens in cities A and B in prefecture I and in city C in prefecture II (city A: 499 households; city B: 1,113 households; city C: 988 households). The surveyed items consisted of the father's age, the father's educational history, the number of children, the age of the youngest child, the father's parental-role awareness, the father's daily working hours, the father's return-home time, and child-rearing participation by the father. Results: The fit indices were found to be CFI = 0.912, GFI = 0.948, and RMSEA = 0.082. Regarding the path coefficients, the path coefficient of the pathway from the age of the youngest child to the father's parent positivity (0.08) and the path coefficient of the pathway from the father's parent positivity to child-rearing participation (0.19) were both at statistically significant levels. Also, the father's return-home time and the working hours, which were considered as disincentives exhibited a direct effect on child-rearing participation without being influenced by the father's parent positivity or parent negativity. The path coefficient of the pathway from return-home time to child-rearing participation was -0.43, and the path coefficient of the pathway from working hours to child-rearing participation was -0.13. The value of the path coefficient expressing the relationship between the return-home time and working hours was 0.80. Conclusion: Authors infered that it'll be the basic material to build a generation mechanism about vanity and father's child-rearing participation appropriately as a result of this research.

A Study on Improvement of Laws regarding Welfare for the Aged (노인복지 관련법제의 발전방향)

  • Park, Ji-Soon
    • Journal of Legislation Research
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    • no.41
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    • pp.87-123
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    • 2011
  • Korea is expected to become an 'aged society' with more than 14 percent of the public aged 65 years or more by 2018. The rapid aging is giving rise to various problems within the society along with falling birthrate in a short period of time. In this context, the role and function of laws on welfare for the aged must be particularly emphasized. Also the Senior Citizens Welfare Act is of great importance as it provides social welfare service on the basis of functional connection with social insurance and public assistance. First, this paper looks into the history of laws related to welfare for the elderly such as the Senior Welfare Act, the Act on Long-term Care Insurance for Senior Citizens and the Basic Old Age Pension Act as well as the findings of earlier studies. In the second place, it will break down such laws by main components aiming to examine details of the laws and questions raised regarding them and to seek ways to achieve improvement with an emphasis on health care, old age income security, housing welfare(assisted living facilities), job security for the aged. The Senior Welfare Act offers substance of social welfare service for the elderly. Income security, health and medical care, welfare measures through long-term care and assisted living facilities, social participation by working are the key elements and all of them should be closely associated to ensure citizens get sufficient public support in their old age. For this purpose, the Senior Welfare Act is under a normative network with laws such as Act on Long-term Care Insurance for Senior Citizens and Basic Old Age Pension Act. Current laws on welfare for the aged including Senior Welfare Act are not sufficiently responsive to the aged society of the 21st century. Income security combined with decent social participation, health and medical care closely connected with long-term care system, efficient expense sharing between government and local government, enhancement of effectiveness of welfare measures can be considered as means to improve current welfare system so that the elderly can enjoy their old age with dignity and respect.

Is Fertility Rate Proportional to the Quality of Life? An Exploratory Analysis of the Relationship between Better Life Index (BLI) and Fertility Rate in OECD Countries (출산율은 삶의 질과 비례하는가? OECD 국가의 삶의 질 요인과 출산율의 관계에 관한 추이분석)

  • Kim, KyungHee;Ryu, SeoungHo;Chung, HeeTae;Gim, HyeYeong;Park, HeongJoon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.215-235
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    • 2018
  • Policy concerns related to raising fertility rates are not only common interests among the OECD countries, but they are also issues of great concern to South Korea whose fertility rate is the lowest in the world. The fertility rate in South Korea continues to decline, even though most of the national budget has been spent on measures to address this and many studies have been conducted on the increase in the fertility rates. In this regard, this study aims to verify the effectiveness of the detailed factors affecting the fertility rate that have been discussed in the previous studies on fertility rates, and to investigate the overall trend toward enhancing the quality of life and increasing the fertility rate through macroscopic and structural studies under the recognition of problems related to the policy approaches through the case studies of the European countries. Toward this end, this study investigated if a high quality of life in advanced countries contributes to the increase in the fertility rate, which country serves as a state model that has a high quality of life and a high fertility rate, and what kind of social and policy environment does the country have with regard to childbirth. The analysis of the OECD Better Life Index (BLI) and CIA fertility rate data showed that the countries whose people enjoy a high quality of life do not necessarily have high fertility rates. In addition, under the recognition that a country with a high quality of life and a high birth rate serves as a state model that South Korea should aim for, the social characteristics of Iceland, Ireland, and New Zealand, which turned out to have both a high quality of life and a high fertility rate, were compared with those of Germany, which showed a high quality of life but a low fertility rate. According to the comparison results, the three countries that were mentioned showed higher awareness of gender equality; therefore, the gender wage gap was small. It was also confirmed that the governments of these countries support various policies that promote both parents sharing the care of their children. In Germany, on the other hand, the gender wage gap was large and the fertility rate was low. In a related move, however, the German government has made active efforts to a paradigm shift toward gender equality. The fertility rate increases when the synergy lies in the relationship between parents and children; therefore, awareness about gender equality should be firmly established both at home and in the labor market. For this reason, the government is required to provide support for the childbirth and rearing environment through appropriate family policies, and exert greater efforts to enhance the effectiveness of the relevant systems rather than simply promoting a system construction. Furthermore, it is necessary to help people in making their own childbearing decisions during the process of creating a better society by changing the national goal from 'raising the fertility rate' to 'creating a healthy society made of happy families'