• Title/Summary/Keyword: Binomial Logistic Regression Analysis

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A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

Factors Affecting Residents' Propensity to Stay in Their Current Residence: Focused on Aging Effect (지역소멸 위기감이 계속거주의향에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 연령의 조절효과를 중심으로 -)

  • You, Na-young;Lee, Gi-Hun;Ma, Kang-Rae
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2022
  • Previous studies on the factors affecting residents' migration have shown that residents who feel dissatisfied with their residential environment are more likely to move to another area than those who feel satisfied. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the subjective evaluation of the decline of the place and its impact on the intention to stay. This study used the data from Hankyoreh 21 survey of the residents who have been residing in the declining regions. The main finding of this study is that residents have a much higher propensity to stay as they become older. The fact that residents' staying intention tends to increase with age seems to be closely related to physical and economic constraints of older residents. Therefore, it can be inferred from the result that the elderly are more likely to be exposed to disadvantageous environments than the young residents in the declining regions.

Association between Hyperuricemia and Hypertension in Korean Adult Women: Using the Eighth KNHANES(2019) (한국 여성의 고요산혈증이 고혈압에 미치는 요인: 국민건강영양조사 제8기 자료(2019년))

  • Dong-Geon Lee;Seok-Jong Kim;Mi-Joon Lee;Bum-Jeun Seo
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.703-709
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to investigate the association between hyperuricemia and the risk of hypertension in Korean adult women using data from the 2019 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 8th wave. Study subjects were 2,693 and descriptive analysis was used to investigate the general characteristics of the subjects. The effects of hyperuricemia on the risk of hypertension were evaluated using binomial logistic regression and it was shown that the risk of hypertension in the hyperuricemia group was higher than in the normal group (OR:1.94, p<.001), after adjusting socioeconomic factors (OR:1.81, p=.001) and even after additional adjustment for health behavioral factors, the risk of hypertension was high (OR:1.54, p=.019). Therefore, in order to prevent hypertension in adult women, it is necessary to develop programs and policies to effectively manage their uric acid levels.

The Policy Effects on Traditional Retail Markets Supported by the Korean Government (정부의 전통시장 지원 정책 효과에 대한 실증연구)

  • Lee, Kyu-Hyun;Kim, Yong-Jae
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - A traditional retail market is a place that offers economic opportunity to employees and employers alike it also is a place where the community can meet. The Korean government has invested three trillion won to improve physical and non-physical aspects in traditional retail markets since 2004. However, little research on this has been conducted. We explore this research gap that could lead to theory extension. We analyze consumption behavior with respect to traditional retail markets through an empirical analysis, thus overcoming limits in previous research. We empirically analyze policy effects of traditional retail market projects supported by the Korean government. Research design, data, and methodology - We propose a traditional retail market improvement plan via the relation between cause and effect resulting from the analysis. More specifically, logit analysis was carried out with 1,754 consumers in 16 cities nationwide. In order to analyze consumer consumption behaviors nationwide, the probability was analyzed using a logit model. This research analyzes the link between support and non-support by the Korean government using binary values. The dependent variable is whether Korean government support is implemented; the binomial logistic regression is used as the statistical estimation technique. The object variables are:1 (support) or 0 (nonsupport), and the prediction value is between 1 and 0. As a result of the factor analysis of questions related to attributes of service quality, four factors were extracted: convenience, product, facilities, and service. Results - The results indicate that convenience, product, and facilities have a significant influence on consumer satisfaction in accordance with the government's traditional retail market support. Additionally, the results reveal that convenience, product, facilities, and service all have a significant influence on consumer satisfaction in a traditional retail market's service quality and consumer satisfaction. Finally, the analysis indicates that the highly satisfied traditional retail market customer has a significant influence on revisit intention. Moreover, the results reveal that the highly satisfied traditional retail market customer has a significant influence on recommendation intention. Conclusions - This research focused on consumers nationwide to measure policy effects of traditional retail markets compared to previous research that focused on one traditional retail market or a specific area. We verified the relationship of service quality and customer satisfaction and consumer behavior based on service quality theory. The results indicate that consumer satisfaction of traditional retail markets supported by service quality factors has a significant impact. In a concrete form, the results indicate that these effects are from facility modernization projects and marketing support projects of the Korean government. The results also imply that these facility and management support effects from the Korean government have been consistent. We realize that the Korean government has to selectively support traditional retail markets in major cities and small and medium-sized cities. To that end, the Korean government needs to select a concentration strategy for the revitalization of traditional retail markets.

Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

Frailty and Health Care Utilization among Community-dwelling Older Adults (노쇠와 의료 이용의 관련성: 일부 지역사회 거주 노인들을 중심으로)

  • Jung, Youn;Bae, Jung-Eun;Song, Eunsol;Kim, Namsoon
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.837-851
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to investigate the relationship between frailty and health care utilization in a cross-sectional design of a population-based sample of community-dwelling older adults. We used the data of 516 participants who dwell in Daejon, aged between 65 and 84 years old. Using K-frailty index, frailty status were measured and categorized as three groups: robust, prefrail, and frail. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine if frailty affects emergency department(ED) visit or hospitalization. In addition, negative binomial regression was used to examine the association between outpatient visits and frailty. Our results showed that the frail elderly increased the ED visit and the number of outpatient visit significantly after controlling for demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, the number of chronic diseases, and self-rated health status. Considering that frailty is an important independent factor affecting health care utilization, more attention is required to prevent the frailty in our health care system.

The Effects of Ecological Variables on Volunteering among Older Adults: The Applications of General Ecological Theory of Aging (노인자원봉사활동에 있어서 생태환경 변수의 효과: 노화의 일반생태학 이론을 적용하여)

  • Lee, Hyunkee
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.777-800
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    • 2012
  • This paper aims to estimate the effects of environmental variables on volunteering among older persons and decide relationships between independent and dependent variables. The thesis conceptually points out that the integrated theory of resources too much emphasizes the important roles of human, social and cultural capital, but overlooks the influences of ecological environments in explaining volunteering among the older persons. And the thesis tries to apply the general ecological theory of aging to explaining volunteering of older people together with resource frameworks, and to estimate the effects of ecological environment variables on volunteerism for senior citizens. Using a micro data of 2009 National Social Survey by Statistics Korea, the paper screens out 10,268 subjects who are believed to socially retire and be above 55 years older. The multiple OLS regression and binomial logistic regression techniques are used to estimate the effects of ecological environments and resources on volunteering. The analysis results show that all of environmental and resource variables are related to volunteering at the level of p<.000. This means that environmental variables have independent effects on the volunteerism, controlling for resource variables. This results suggest that both theories have empirical evidences in explaining volunteerism in Korea. Also, at the end of paper, theoretical and policy implications for practices and future studies are discussed.

A study on the Influencing Factors of Suicidal Ideation of the Young-old and Old-old Elderly in South Korea: Focusing on the Individual, Family, and Community System Factors (전기·후기 노인의 자살생각 영향 요인에 관한 연구: 개인체계, 가족체계, 지역사회체계 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jeong, Kyu Hyoung;Ko, A Ra
    • Korean Journal of Family Social Work
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    • no.53
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    • pp.45-78
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to classify the old into the old people as Young-old(Age 65-74) and Old-old(Older than 75) Elderly in Korea and is to check the factors influencing on the suicidal ideation based on eco-system approach. For the research data, the survey data of actual condition of the old people in 2014 was used. The samples of analysis in this study are the Young-old people who have spouse Old-old people, which are in total 6, 201. In order to check the characteristics of suicidal ideation of the Young-old people and Old-old people, Chi-square analysis was implemented and binomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to check the influencing factors of suicidal Ideation of Young-old and Old-old Elderly. As a result of analysis, there were significant difference in the factors influencing on suicidal ideation of the Young-old people and the Old-old people. The variables in terms of the sociology of population among personal system factors have affected more to the suicidal ideation of Old-old people than the Young-old people. Variables in terms of health have influenced on the Old-old people and the variables in terms of economy have significantly affected to the Young-old people. It has been suggested that the conflict of conjugality and marital conflict affect to the suicidal ideation of Young- old people however it has been appeared that the Old-old people are significantly affected not only by the conjugality but also by the relationship with children. In order to reduce the suicidal ideation of the old people, the customized approach per group of the old people has been presented.

Factors Influencing Stroke in Community-dwelling Adults : Focusing on Health-related Quality of Life (지역사회거주 성인의 뇌졸중 영향 요인 : 건강관련 삶의 질을 중심으로)

  • Moon, Jong-Hoon
    • The Journal of Korean society of community based occupational therapy
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2019
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors influencing stroke in community-dwelling adults. Methods : This study used raw data from the community health survey in 2016. Among the 228,452 subjects who participated in the survey, 225,003 (98.5%) of them were included in the analysis of this study. The sociodemographic characteristics were selected as gender, age, region, income, marital status, and comorbidity was selected as osteoporosis, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, myocardial infarction and arthritis. Health-related quality of life was assessed by EuroQol-5 Dimension(EQ-5D) and the subcategory of EQ-5D (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, anxiety/depression) were included in the analysis. Dependent variables were stroke, and the independent variables were the 16 variables described above. Statistical analysis was performed using binomial logistic regression analysis. Results : In sociodemographic variables, stroke was predicted by men, aging, and lower income levels. In comorbidity variables, stroke was predicted by hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, and myocardial infarction. In sub-domains of health-related quality of life, stroke was predicted by self-care, usual activities, mobility, anxiety/depression, and pain/discomfort. Conclusion : These finding suggest that it is needed development of a customized health promotion program for the improvement of self-care and activities of daily living in community-dwelling stroke survivors.

Characteristics of Immigration Path and Residential Location of Korean Immigrants in Los Angeles (미국 LA지역 한인 이주민의 정착경로 및 주거입지 특성)

  • Park, Wonseok
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.17-44
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    • 2015
  • This paper aims at elucidating the characteristics of immigration path and residential location, and analyzing the factors influencing housing ownership structure and preference of residential location factors of Korean immigrants in Los Angeles. The main results of this study are as follows. Firstly, immigration paths of Korean Immigrants are divided by spatial assimilation type and network of mainstream society oriented type. Secondly, according to the results of binomial logistic regression analysis, Korean town as a current residential location is selected by low-income class, aged migrants group, housing non-owner group and longer migration period group. Thirdly, migrants tend to retain detached housings in residential area of mainstream society while migration period go beyond 10 years and incomes exceed $60,000. Finally, according to ANOVA tests on the preferences of residential location factors. high-income and home owers groups more prefer location factors such as economics, natural environment, housing interior facilities, network of mainstream society.

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