• 제목/요약/키워드: Beta distribution model

검색결과 151건 처리시간 0.028초

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Natural and Processed Cheeses

  • Lee, Heeyoung;Lee, Soomin;Kim, Sejeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Ha, Jimyeong;Yoon, Yohan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제29권8호
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    • pp.1188-1196
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    • 2016
  • This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model ($r=1.82{\times}10^{-11}$) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were $12.40{\pm}19.43g$ and $19.46{\pm}14.39g$, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=91$; ${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=309$)${\times}$uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were $9.57{\times}10^{-14}$ and $3.58{\times}10^{-14}$, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by consumption cheese is low, and it can be used to establish microbial criteria for C. perfringens on natural and processed cheeses.

혈장내 염의 Poly(2-Hydroxyethyl Methacrylate) 격막 투과현상 (Transport of Some Solutes in Blood Plasma Through Poly(2-Hydroxyethyl Methacrylate) Hydrogel Membrane)

  • 지종기;전무식;이태규
    • 대한화학회지
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.304-310
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    • 1978
  • 혈장내의 중요한 성분인 몇가지 염들이 poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) 격막을 통과하는 상대투과계수($U_{re}$), 분배계수($K_D$), 확산계수($D_m$)등을 측정하였다. 이 격막을 제조할 때 cross-linker로서 사용된 tetraethylene glycol dimethacrylate(TEGDMA)의 함량은 중량비로 2.8%였다. 이 염들의 확산계수는 그 분자량이 증가함에 따라서 지수함수적으로 감소하였으며, 그 분자의 원통반지름(a)에 대해서는 요소를 제외하고는 직선적으로 감소하였다. 이와 같은 사실을 sieve pore filow 모델로서 설명하였다. 여러 온도에서 요소의 $U_{re}$$D_m$은 글리신, ${\beta}$-알라닌, D-글루코오스, 사카로스 및 말레산과 같은 다른 염들의 값보다 더 컸다. 이와 같은 결과는 이 poly(HEMA) 격막이 혈투석 응용에 적합하다는 사실을 보여 주었다.

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상선 선원의 인적과실 평가 모델 구축기법: 선박관리회사 적용 실례 (Implementation Techniques for the Seafarer's Human Error Assessment Model in a Merchant Ship: Practical Application to a Ship Management Company)

  • 임정빈
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.181-191
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    • 2009
  • 일반적으로 상선에서 해상운송 사고의 주된 원인은 원의 인적과실로 고려되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 선박에 승선 중인 선장, 1항사, 2항사 및 3항사를 포함하는 갑판사관들이 야기할 수 있는 사고 위기를 평가하기 위한 인적과실 모델(HEM)의 구축기법에 관해서 기술했다. 연구범위는 130척의 선박을 관리하는 회사에 소속된 542명의 갑판사관들을 대상으로 했다. 우선, 갑판사관들의 인적 데이터에 대한 통계적 분석과 전문가에 의한 브레인스토밍 과정을 통해서 KEM을 구축하고, 인적과실을 평가하기 위한 인적요소들의 변수 $\upsilon$$\upsilon$에 대한 평가등급 EP($\upsilon$) 및 가중치 $\alpha$, 갑판사관의 직책별 가중치 $\beta$ 등을 결정했다. 그리고 선박의 사고기록에 대한 통계분석 결과, 인적과실에 의한 사고원인 비율 ${\gamma}_H$와 외적과실에 의한 사고원인 비율 ${\gamma}_B$은 0.517(51.7%)과 0.483(48.3%)로 나타났다. $\upsilon$의 상관계수는 95%(p < 0.05) 신뢰구간에서 유의함을 확인하였고, 각 갑판사관의 위기수준 RL의 정규 확률분포 분석으로부터 HEM의 타당성을 검토했다.

정보통신망의 효율적 보안관리를 위한 비즈니스 프로세스 기반의 자산평가모델 및 방법론에 관한 연구 (A Study on Business Process Based Asset Evaluation Model and Methodology for Efficient Security Management over Telecommunication Networks)

  • 우병구;이강수;정태명
    • 정보처리학회논문지C
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    • 제10C권4호
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    • pp.423-432
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    • 2003
  • 정보통신망의 보안관리나 위험분석시 정형화된 자산분석ㆍ평가는 필수적이지만, 기존의 위험분석 방법론 및 도구에는 자산의 분규체계만 다수 제시되어 있을 뿐 구체적인 자산파악 및 가치평가방법은 알려져 있지 않다. 또한, 기존의 자산분류체계는 주로 정보자산이 아닌 일반적인 위험평가를 위한 것이므로, 정보통신망의 정보자산에 대한 분류체계 및 자산가치 평가방법으로는 부적합하다. 특히, 자산평가시의 평가자의 주관성 문제를 해결하는 구체적인 방법이 제시되어있지 못하다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제점들을 해결하기 위해, 정형화된 자산평가모델의 정의, 새로운 자산분류스키마, 업무처리(BP)와 자산을 고려한 2차원적 자산업무분류스키마, 다양한 정량가치와 정성가치의 평가방법을 제시하고 특히 무형자산 평가시의 평가자의 주관성 문제의 단점을 보완할 수 있는 베타분포형 델파이 방법은 제안하고자 한다.

Ni이 첨가된 $MnO_2$ 산화물전극의 전자상태 계산 (Calculation of Electronic State of MnO2 Oxide Electode Having Ni Additive)

  • 이동윤;김봉서;송재성
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2002년도 하계학술대회 논문집 C
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    • pp.1515-1517
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    • 2002
  • $MnO_2$ is used for the oxide electrode of electrochemical equipments because of its good electric conductivity and low oxygen overpotential. The effect of additives on the properties of $MnO_2$ has been investigated to enhance the electric conductivity and the stability in an acid solution. In this research, the effect of Ni addition on ${\beta}-MnO_2$ was studied by the theoretical quantum chemical method. The calculation was carried out by the discrete variation $X{\alpha}$ method, which is a sort of the first principle method and use Hatre-Fock-Slater approximation. The electron energy level, the density of state, the bond overlap population, the charge density distribution and the net ionic transfer between cations and anions were calculated and discussed. The used cluster model was $(Mn_{10}NiO_{44})^{-44}$.

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Herding Behavior and Cryptocurrency: Market Asymmetries, Inter-Dependency and Intra-Dependency

  • JALAL, Raja Nabeel-Ud-Din;SARGIACOMO, Massimo;SAHAR, Najam Us;FAYYAZ, Um-E-Roman
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권7호
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2020
  • The study investigates herding behavior in cryptocurrencies in different situations. This study employs daily returns of major cryptocurrencies listed in CCI30 index and sub-major cryptocurrencies and major stock returns listed in Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index, from 2015 to 2018. Quantile regression method is employed to test the herding effect in market asymmetries, inter-dependency and intra-dependency cases. Findings confirm the presence of herding in cryptocurrency in upper quantiles in bullish and high volatility periods because of overexcitement among investors, which lead to high volume trading. Major cryptocurrencies cause herding in sub-major cryptocurrencies, but it is a unidirectional relation. However, no intra-dependency effect among cryptocurrencies and equity market is observed. Results indicate that in the CKK model herding exists at upper quantile in market that may be due when the market is moving fast, continuously trading, and bullish trend are prevailing. Further analysis confirms this narrative as, at upper quantile, the beta of bullish regime is negative and significant, meaning the main source of market herding is a bullish trend in investment, which increases market turbulence and gives investors opportunity to herd. Also, we found that herding in cryptocurrencies exits in high volatility periods, but this herding mostly depends on market activity, not market movement.

Enhanced Liver Targeting by Synthesis of $N_{\b{1}}-Stearyl-5-Fu$ and Incorporation into Solid lipid Nanoparticles

  • Yu, Bo-Tao;Xun-Sun;Zhang, Zhi-Rong
    • Archives of Pharmacal Research
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    • 제26권12호
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    • pp.1096-1101
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    • 2003
  • To enhance the liver targeting and reduce the side effects of 5-fluorouracil (5-Fu), it was acylated by stearyl chloride to obtain .$\b{N}_{\b{1}}$stearyl-5-Fu (5-FuS). The chemical structure of the prodrug was confirmed by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and Infrared Spectrometry. 5-FuS was incorporated into solid lipid nanoparticles (SLN), which were prepared by the physical agglomeration method. The mean diameter of 5-FuS-SLN was 240.19 nm and the drug loading was 20.53%. The release characteristics in vitro of 5-FuS-SLN were fitted to the first-order pharmacokinetic model. Compared with 5-Fu injection, a study on the distribution of 5-FuS-SLN in mice showed that 5-FuS-SLN could double 5-Fu concentration in mice livers. The main pharmacokinetic parameters of 5-FuS-SLN in rabbits is shown as follows: $V_d$=0.04336L/kg, $T_{1/2} \beta$=1.2834h, CL=0.1632 L/h. In conclusion, 5-FuS-SLN has significant liver targeting properties. The employment of a prodrug to enhance drug liposoluble properties and the preparation method presented in this paper, seem to be an alternative strategy to the traditional colloidal delivery system.

Optimum Risk-Adjusted Islamic Stock Portfolio Using the Quadratic Programming Model: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

  • MUSSAFI, Noor Saif Muhammad;ISMAIL, Zuhaimy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.839-850
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    • 2021
  • Risk-adjusted return is believed to be one of the optimal parameters to determine an optimum portfolio. A risk-adjusted return is a calculation of the profit or potential profit from an investment that takes into account the degree of risk that must be accepted to achieve it. This paper presents a new procedure in portfolio selection and utilizes these results to optimize the risk level of risk-adjusted Islamic stock portfolios. It deals with the weekly close price of active issuers listed on Jakarta Islamic Index Indonesia for a certain time interval. Overall, this paper highlights portfolio selection, which includes determining the number of stocks, grouping the issuers via technical analysis, and selecting the best risk-adjusted return of portfolios. The nominated portfolio is modeled using Quadratic Programming (QP). The result of this study shows that the portfolio built using the lowest Value at Risk (VaR) outperforms the market proxy on a risk-adjusted basis of M-squared and was chosen as the best portfolio that can be optimized using QP with a minimum risk of 2.86%. The portfolio with the lowest beta, on the other hand, will produce a minimum risk that is nearly 60% lower than the optimal risk-adjusted return portfolio. The results of QP are well verified by a heuristic optimizer of fmincon.

생굴 섭취로 인한 고병원성 Vibrio균 식중독 위해평가 (Microbial Risk Assessment of High Risk Vibrio Foodborne Illness Through Raw Oyster Consumption)

  • 하지명;이지연;오혜민;신일식;김영목;박권삼;윤요한
    • 한국식품위생안전성학회지
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2020
  • 패류 중 소비량이 높은 굴에서의 고병원성 Vibrio균(V. vulnificus와 V. cholerae)의 식중독 발생 가능성을 분석하기 위하여 위해평가를 실시하였다. 남해권역, 서해권역, 수도권에서 유통되고 있는 굴 88개를 채취하여 V. vulnificus와 V. cholerae의 오염실태를 조사하고, 생굴에서의 V. vulnificus와 V. cholerae의 생장 경향을 관찰하였다. 2017년의 국민건강영양조사 데이터를 활용하여 생굴의 섭취자 비율 및 섭취량을 조사하였으며, 생굴 섭취로 인한 V. vulnificus와 V. cholerae의 식중독 발생 가능성을 분석하기 위해 @RISK를 통해 위해평가를 실시하였다. 88개의 생굴에서 V. vulnificus와 V. cholerae는 검출되지 않아 Beta distribution과 자연로그를 이용한 식을 통해 초기오염수준을 추정하였다. 그 결과 두 세균 모두 -3.6 Log CFU/g으로 생굴에 오염되어 있는 것으로 추정되었다. 생굴에 bioaccumulation된 V. vulnificus와 V. cholerae는 생장하지 않고 초기 접종 수준을 유지하는 것으로 확인되었다. 생굴을 섭취했다고 응답한 사람은 7,167명 중 25명이었으며, 따라서 섭취자 비율은 0.35%로 나타났다. 섭취량에 대한 최적확률분포는 exponential distribution으로 나타났으며 생굴의 평균 섭취량은 66.8 g으로 확인되었다. V. vulnificus와 V. cholerae의 용량-반응 모델은 Beta-Poisson model을 사용하였다. 이상의 데이터를 이용하여 위해평가 시뮬레이션을 개발하고 분석하였다. 초기오염수준으로 오염된 생굴을 바로 섭취함으로써 발생할 수 있는 식중독발생 가능성은 V. vulnificus의 경우 평균 9.08×10-15, V. cholerae는 8.16×10-13이며, 섭취자 비율이 식중독 발생 가능성에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다.

PSC 박스거더 교량의 상호작용에 의한 KTX 동력차의 윤하중 분포 해석 (A Dynamic Analysis of Wheel Forces distribution of KTX locomotive for Interaction of PSC box Girder Bridge)

  • 오순택;이동준;심영우;윤준관;김한수
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.680-689
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    • 2011
  • A dynamic analysis procedure is developed to provide a comprehensive estimation of the dynamic response spectrum for locomotive's wheels running over a Pre-Stressed Concrete (PSC) box girder bridge on the Korea high speed railway. The wheel force spectrum with the bridge behavior are analyzed as the dynamic procedure for various running speeds (50~450km/h). The high-speed railway locomotive (KTX) is used as 38-degree of freedom system. Three displacements(vertical, lateral, and longitudinal) and three rotational components (pitching, rolling, and yawing). For one car-body and two bogies as well as five movements except pitching rotation components for four wheel axes forces are considered in the 38-degree of freedom model. Three dimensional frame element is used to model of the PSC box girder bridges, simply supported span length of 40m. The irregulation of rail-way is derived using the exponential spectrum density function under assumption of twelve level tracks conditions based on the normal probability procedure. The dynamic responses of bridge passing through the railway locomotive with high-speed analyzed by Newmark-${\beta}$ method and Runge-Kutta method are compared and contrasted considering the developed models of bridge, track and locomotive comprehensively. The dynamic analyses of wheel forces by Runge-Kutta method which are able to analyze the forces with high frequency running on the bridge and ground rail-way are conducted. Additionally, wheel forces spectrum and three rotational components of vehicle body for three typical running speeds is also presented.

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