• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian network

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The development of water circulation model based on quasi-realtime hydrological data for drought monitoring (수문학적 가뭄 모니터링을 위한 실적자료 기반 물순환 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kim, Jang-Gyeng;Chun, Gun-il;Kang, Shin-uk;Lee, Jeong-Ju;Nam, Woo-Sung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.569-582
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    • 2020
  • Recently, Korea has faced a change in the pattern of water use due to urbanization, which has caused difficulties in understanding the rainfall-runoff process and optimizing the allocation of available water resources. In this perspective, spatially downscaled analysis of the water balance is required for the efficient operation of water resources in the National Water Management Plan and the River Basin Water Resource Management Plan. However, the existing water balance analysis does not fully consider water circulation and availability in the basin, thus, the obtained results provide limited information in terms of decision making. This study aims at developing a novel water circulation analysis model that is designed to support a quasi-real-time assessment of water availability along the river. The water circulation model proposed in this study improved the problems that appear in the existing water balance analysis. More importantly, the results showed a significant improvement over the existing model, especially in the low flow simulation. The proposed modeling framework is expected to provide primary information for more realistic hydrological drought monitoring and drought countermeasures by providing streamflow information in quasi-real-time through a more accurate natural flow estimation approach with highly complex network.

Semantic Topic Selection Method of Document for Classification (문서분류를 위한 의미적 주제선정방법)

  • Ko, kwang-Sup;Kim, Pan-Koo;Lee, Chang-Hoon;Hwang, Myung-Gwon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2007
  • The web as global network includes text document, video, sound, etc and connects each distributed information using link Through development of web, it accumulates abundant information and the main is text based documents. Most of user use the web to retrieve information what they want. So, numerous researches have progressed to retrieve the text documents using the many methods, such as probability, statistics, vector similarity, Bayesian, and so on. These researches however, could not consider both the subject and the semantics of documents. As a result user have to find by their hand again. Especially, it is more hard to find the korean document because the researches of korean document classification is insufficient. So, to overcome the previous problems, we propose the korean document classification method for semantic retrieval. This method firstly, extracts TF value and RV value of concepts that is included in document, and maps into U-WIN that is korean vocabulary dictionary to select the topic of document. This method is possible to classify the document semantically and showed the efficiency through experiment.

Managing the Reverse Extrapolation Model of Radar Threats Based Upon an Incremental Machine Learning Technique (점진적 기계학습 기반의 레이더 위협체 역추정 모델 생성 및 갱신)

  • Kim, Chulpyo;Noh, Sanguk
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Next Generation Computing
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2017
  • Various electronic warfare situations drive the need to develop an integrated electronic warfare simulator that can perform electronic warfare modeling and simulation on radar threats. In this paper, we analyze the components of a simulation system to reversely model the radar threats that emit electromagnetic signals based on the parameters of the electronic information, and propose a method to gradually maintain the reverse extrapolation model of RF threats. In the experiment, we will evaluate the effectiveness of the incremental model update and also assess the integration method of reverse extrapolation models. The individual model of RF threats are constructed by using decision tree, naive Bayesian classifier, artificial neural network, and clustering algorithms through Euclidean distance and cosine similarity measurement, respectively. Experimental results show that the accuracy of reverse extrapolation models improves, while the size of the threat sample increases. In addition, we use voting, weighted voting, and the Dempster-Shafer algorithm to integrate the results of the five different models of RF threats. As a result, the final decision of reverse extrapolation through the Dempster-Shafer algorithm shows the best performance in its accuracy.

A Study on Differences of Contents and Tones of Arguments among Newspapers Using Text Mining Analysis (텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 신문사에 따른 내용 및 논조 차이점 분석)

  • Kam, Miah;Song, Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2012
  • This study analyses the difference of contents and tones of arguments among three Korean major newspapers, the Kyunghyang Shinmoon, the HanKyoreh, and the Dong-A Ilbo. It is commonly accepted that newspapers in Korea explicitly deliver their own tone of arguments when they talk about some sensitive issues and topics. It could be controversial if readers of newspapers read the news without being aware of the type of tones of arguments because the contents and the tones of arguments can affect readers easily. Thus it is very desirable to have a new tool that can inform the readers of what tone of argument a newspaper has. This study presents the results of clustering and classification techniques as part of text mining analysis. We focus on six main subjects such as Culture, Politics, International, Editorial-opinion, Eco-business and National issues in newspapers, and attempt to identify differences and similarities among the newspapers. The basic unit of text mining analysis is a paragraph of news articles. This study uses a keyword-network analysis tool and visualizes relationships among keywords to make it easier to see the differences. Newspaper articles were gathered from KINDS, the Korean integrated news database system. KINDS preserves news articles of the Kyunghyang Shinmun, the HanKyoreh and the Dong-A Ilbo and these are open to the public. This study used these three Korean major newspapers from KINDS. About 3,030 articles from 2008 to 2012 were used. International, national issues and politics sections were gathered with some specific issues. The International section was collected with the keyword of 'Nuclear weapon of North Korea.' The National issues section was collected with the keyword of '4-major-river.' The Politics section was collected with the keyword of 'Tonghap-Jinbo Dang.' All of the articles from April 2012 to May 2012 of Eco-business, Culture and Editorial-opinion sections were also collected. All of the collected data were handled and edited into paragraphs. We got rid of stop-words using the Lucene Korean Module. We calculated keyword co-occurrence counts from the paired co-occurrence list of keywords in a paragraph. We made a co-occurrence matrix from the list. Once the co-occurrence matrix was built, we used the Cosine coefficient matrix as input for PFNet(Pathfinder Network). In order to analyze these three newspapers and find out the significant keywords in each paper, we analyzed the list of 10 highest frequency keywords and keyword-networks of 20 highest ranking frequency keywords to closely examine the relationships and show the detailed network map among keywords. We used NodeXL software to visualize the PFNet. After drawing all the networks, we compared the results with the classification results. Classification was firstly handled to identify how the tone of argument of a newspaper is different from others. Then, to analyze tones of arguments, all the paragraphs were divided into two types of tones, Positive tone and Negative tone. To identify and classify all of the tones of paragraphs and articles we had collected, supervised learning technique was used. The Na$\ddot{i}$ve Bayesian classifier algorithm provided in the MALLET package was used to classify all the paragraphs in articles. After classification, Precision, Recall and F-value were used to evaluate the results of classification. Based on the results of this study, three subjects such as Culture, Eco-business and Politics showed some differences in contents and tones of arguments among these three newspapers. In addition, for the National issues, tones of arguments on 4-major-rivers project were different from each other. It seems three newspapers have their own specific tone of argument in those sections. And keyword-networks showed different shapes with each other in the same period in the same section. It means that frequently appeared keywords in articles are different and their contents are comprised with different keywords. And the Positive-Negative classification showed the possibility of classifying newspapers' tones of arguments compared to others. These results indicate that the approach in this study is promising to be extended as a new tool to identify the different tones of arguments of newspapers.

Building battery deterioration prediction model using real field data (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 납축전지 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.243-264
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    • 2018
  • Although the worldwide battery market is recently spurring the development of lithium secondary battery, lead acid batteries (rechargeable batteries) which have good-performance and can be reused are consumed in a wide range of industry fields. However, lead-acid batteries have a serious problem in that deterioration of a battery makes progress quickly in the presence of that degradation of only one cell among several cells which is packed in a battery begins. To overcome this problem, previous researches have attempted to identify the mechanism of deterioration of a battery in many ways. However, most of previous researches have used data obtained in a laboratory to analyze the mechanism of deterioration of a battery but not used data obtained in a real world. The usage of real data can increase the feasibility and the applicability of the findings of a research. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model which predicts the battery deterioration using data obtained in real world. To this end, we collected data which presents change of battery state by attaching sensors enabling to monitor the battery condition in real time to dozens of golf carts operated in the real golf field. As a result, total 16,883 samples were obtained. And then, we developed a model which predicts a precursor phenomenon representing deterioration of a battery by analyzing the data collected from the sensors using machine learning techniques. As initial independent variables, we used 1) inbound time of a cart, 2) outbound time of a cart, 3) duration(from outbound time to charge time), 4) charge amount, 5) used amount, 6) charge efficiency, 7) lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, 8) lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 9) highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 10) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, 11) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, 12) used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation, 13) used amount of battery during operation(Max-Min), 14) duration of battery use, and 15) highest current during operation. Since the values of the independent variables, lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, and used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation are similar to that of each battery cell, we conducted principal component analysis using verimax orthogonal rotation in order to mitigate the multiple collinearity problem. According to the results, we made new variables by averaging the values of independent variables clustered together, and used them as final independent variables instead of origin variables, thereby reducing the dimension. We used decision tree, logistic regression, Bayesian network as algorithms for building prediction models. And also, we built prediction models using the bagging of each of them, the boosting of each of them, and RandomForest. Experimental results show that the prediction model using the bagging of decision tree yields the best accuracy of 89.3923%. This study has some limitations in that the additional variables which affect the deterioration of battery such as weather (temperature, humidity) and driving habits, did not considered, therefore, we would like to consider the them in the future research. However, the battery deterioration prediction model proposed in the present study is expected to enable effective and efficient management of battery used in the real filed by dramatically and to reduce the cost caused by not detecting battery deterioration accordingly.

Predictive Clustering-based Collaborative Filtering Technique for Performance-Stability of Recommendation System (추천 시스템의 성능 안정성을 위한 예측적 군집화 기반 협업 필터링 기법)

  • Lee, O-Joun;You, Eun-Soon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.119-142
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    • 2015
  • With the explosive growth in the volume of information, Internet users are experiencing considerable difficulties in obtaining necessary information online. Against this backdrop, ever-greater importance is being placed on a recommender system that provides information catered to user preferences and tastes in an attempt to address issues associated with information overload. To this end, a number of techniques have been proposed, including content-based filtering (CBF), demographic filtering (DF) and collaborative filtering (CF). Among them, CBF and DF require external information and thus cannot be applied to a variety of domains. CF, on the other hand, is widely used since it is relatively free from the domain constraint. The CF technique is broadly classified into memory-based CF, model-based CF and hybrid CF. Model-based CF addresses the drawbacks of CF by considering the Bayesian model, clustering model or dependency network model. This filtering technique not only improves the sparsity and scalability issues but also boosts predictive performance. However, it involves expensive model-building and results in a tradeoff between performance and scalability. Such tradeoff is attributed to reduced coverage, which is a type of sparsity issues. In addition, expensive model-building may lead to performance instability since changes in the domain environment cannot be immediately incorporated into the model due to high costs involved. Cumulative changes in the domain environment that have failed to be reflected eventually undermine system performance. This study incorporates the Markov model of transition probabilities and the concept of fuzzy clustering with CBCF to propose predictive clustering-based CF (PCCF) that solves the issues of reduced coverage and of unstable performance. The method improves performance instability by tracking the changes in user preferences and bridging the gap between the static model and dynamic users. Furthermore, the issue of reduced coverage also improves by expanding the coverage based on transition probabilities and clustering probabilities. The proposed method consists of four processes. First, user preferences are normalized in preference clustering. Second, changes in user preferences are detected from review score entries during preference transition detection. Third, user propensities are normalized using patterns of changes (propensities) in user preferences in propensity clustering. Lastly, the preference prediction model is developed to predict user preferences for items during preference prediction. The proposed method has been validated by testing the robustness of performance instability and scalability-performance tradeoff. The initial test compared and analyzed the performance of individual recommender systems each enabled by IBCF, CBCF, ICFEC and PCCF under an environment where data sparsity had been minimized. The following test adjusted the optimal number of clusters in CBCF, ICFEC and PCCF for a comparative analysis of subsequent changes in the system performance. The test results revealed that the suggested method produced insignificant improvement in performance in comparison with the existing techniques. In addition, it failed to achieve significant improvement in the standard deviation that indicates the degree of data fluctuation. Notwithstanding, it resulted in marked improvement over the existing techniques in terms of range that indicates the level of performance fluctuation. The level of performance fluctuation before and after the model generation improved by 51.31% in the initial test. Then in the following test, there has been 36.05% improvement in the level of performance fluctuation driven by the changes in the number of clusters. This signifies that the proposed method, despite the slight performance improvement, clearly offers better performance stability compared to the existing techniques. Further research on this study will be directed toward enhancing the recommendation performance that failed to demonstrate significant improvement over the existing techniques. The future research will consider the introduction of a high-dimensional parameter-free clustering algorithm or deep learning-based model in order to improve performance in recommendations.