• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.267-280
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• 2013

College tuition is a significant economic, social, and political issue in Korea. We conduct a Bayesian analysis of a hierarchical model to address the factors related to college tuition based on a survey data collected by Statistics Korea. A binary response variable is selected depending on if more than 70% of tuition costs are supported by parents, and a hierarchical Probit model is constructed with areas as groups. A set of explanatory variables is selected from a factor analysis of available variables in the survey. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to estimate parameters. From the analysis results, income and stress are significantly related to college tuition support from parents. Parents with high income tend to support children's college tuition and students with parents' financial support tend to be mentally less stressed; subsequently, this shows that the economic status of parents significantly affects the mental health of college students. Gender, a healthy life style, and college satisfaction are not significant factors. Comparing areas in terms of the degrees of correlation between stress/income and tuition support from parents, students in Kangwon-do are the most mentally stressed when parents' support is limited; in addition, the positive correlation between parents support and income is stronger in big cities compared to provincial areas.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.8
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• pp.569-582
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• 2020

Recently, Korea has faced a change in the pattern of water use due to urbanization, which has caused difficulties in understanding the rainfall-runoff process and optimizing the allocation of available water resources. In this perspective, spatially downscaled analysis of the water balance is required for the efficient operation of water resources in the National Water Management Plan and the River Basin Water Resource Management Plan. However, the existing water balance analysis does not fully consider water circulation and availability in the basin, thus, the obtained results provide limited information in terms of decision making. This study aims at developing a novel water circulation analysis model that is designed to support a quasi-real-time assessment of water availability along the river. The water circulation model proposed in this study improved the problems that appear in the existing water balance analysis. More importantly, the results showed a significant improvement over the existing model, especially in the low flow simulation. The proposed modeling framework is expected to provide primary information for more realistic hydrological drought monitoring and drought countermeasures by providing streamflow information in quasi-real-time through a more accurate natural flow estimation approach with highly complex network.

• Composites Research
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.317-321
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• 2022

In this study, the PIC design method with machine learning that automatically assigning different stacking sequences according to loading types was applied bumper beam. The input value and labels of the training data for applying machine learning were defined as coordinates and loading types of reference elements that are part of the total elements, respectively. In order to compare the 2D and 3D implementation method, which are methods of representing coordinate value, training data were generated, and machine learning models were trained with each method. The 2D implementation method is divided FE model into each face and generating learning data and training machine learning models accordingly. The 3D implementation method is training one machine learning model by generating training data from the entire finite element model. The hyperparameter were tuned to optimal values through the Bayesian algorithm, and the k-NN classification method showed the highest prediction rate and AUC-ROC among the tuned models. The 3D implementation method revealed higher performance than the 2D implementation method. The loading type data predicted through the machine learning model were mapped to the finite element model and comparatively verified through FE analysis. It was found that 3D implementation PIC bumper beam was superior to 2D implementation and uni-stacking sequence composite bumper.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.21-32
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• 1991

The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability model for slope stability of Earth-rockfill dams which accounts for all uncertainties encountered. The uncertain factors of the design variables include the cohesion, the angle of internal friction, and the porewater Pressure in each zone. More specifically, the model errors in estimating those variables are studied in depth. To reduce the uncertainties due to model errors, updated design variables are obtained using Bayesian Theory. For stability analysis, both the two-dimesional stability analysis and the three-dimensional stability analysis where the end effects and the system reliability concept are considered are used for the reliability calculations. The deterministic safety factor by the three-dimensional analysis is lager than that by the two-dimensional anlysis. However, the probability of failure by the three-dimensional analysis is about 3.5 times larger that by the two-dimensional analysis. It is because the system reliability concept is used in the three-dimensional analysis. The sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the cohesion than that of the angle of internal friction.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.587-598
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• 2016

In predicting an outcome of election using a variety of methods ahead of the election, non-response is one of the major issues. Therefore, to address the non-response issue, a variety of methods of non-response imputation may be employed, but the result of forecasting tend to vary according to methods. In this study, in order to improve electoral forecasts, we studied a model based method of non-response imputation attempting to apply the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm, introduced by Wei and Tanner (1990). The MCEM algorithm using maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) is applied to solve the boundary solution problem under the non-ignorable non-response mechanism. We performed the simulation studies to compare estimation performance among MCEM, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation method. The results of simulation studies showed that MCEM method can be a reasonable candidate for non-response model estimation. We also applied MCEM method to the Korean presidential election exit poll data of 2012 and investigated prediction performance using modified within precinct error (MWPE) criterion (Bautista et al., 2007).

• Atmosphere
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.19-31
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to develop the statistical model to predict sea level pressure of typhoon period in south coast of the Korean Peninsula. Seven typhoons, which struck south coast of the Korean Peninsula, are selected for this study, and the data for analysis include the central pressure and location of typhoon, and sea level pressure and location of 19 observing site. Models employed in this study are the first order regression, the second order regression and the neural network. The dependent variable of each model is a 3-hr interval sea level pressure at each station. The cause variables are the central pressure of typhoon, distance between typhoon center and observing site, and sea level pressure of 3 hrs before, whereas the indicative variable reveals whether it is before or after typhoon passing. The data are classified into two groups - one is the full data obtained during typhoon period and the other is the data that sea level pressure is less than 1000 hPa. The stepwise selection method is used in the regression model while the node number is selected in the neural network by the Schwarz's Bayesian Criterion. The performance of each model is compared in terms of the root-mean square error. It turns out that the neural network shows better performance than other models, and the case using the full data produces similar or better results than the case using the other data.

• Composites Research
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.53-58
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• 2023

The PIC design method is assigning different stacking sequences for each shell element through the preliminary FE analysis. In previous study, machine learning was applied to the PIC design method in order to assign the region efficiently, and the training data is labeled by dividing each region into tension, compression, and shear through the preliminary FE analysis results value. However, since buckling is not considered, when buckling occurs, it can't be divided into appropriate loading type. In the present study, it was proposed PIC-NTL (PIC design using novel technique for analyzing load type) which is method for applying a novel technique for analyzing load type considering buckling to the conventional PIC design. The stress triaxiality for each ply were analyzed for buckling analysis, and the representative loading type was designated through the determined loading type within decision area divided into two regions of the same size in the thickness direction of the elements. The input value of the training data and label consisted in coordination of element and representative loading type of each decision area, respectively. A machine learning model was trained through the training data, and the hyperparameters that affect the performance of the machine learning model were tuned to optimal values through Bayesian algorithm. Among the tuned machine learning models, the SVM model showed the highest performance. Most effective stacking sequence were mapped into PIC tube based on trained SVM model. FE analysis results show the design method proposed in this study has superior external loading resistance and energy absorption compared to previous study.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.119-142
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• 2015

With the explosive growth in the volume of information, Internet users are experiencing considerable difficulties in obtaining necessary information online. Against this backdrop, ever-greater importance is being placed on a recommender system that provides information catered to user preferences and tastes in an attempt to address issues associated with information overload. To this end, a number of techniques have been proposed, including content-based filtering (CBF), demographic filtering (DF) and collaborative filtering (CF). Among them, CBF and DF require external information and thus cannot be applied to a variety of domains. CF, on the other hand, is widely used since it is relatively free from the domain constraint. The CF technique is broadly classified into memory-based CF, model-based CF and hybrid CF. Model-based CF addresses the drawbacks of CF by considering the Bayesian model, clustering model or dependency network model. This filtering technique not only improves the sparsity and scalability issues but also boosts predictive performance. However, it involves expensive model-building and results in a tradeoff between performance and scalability. Such tradeoff is attributed to reduced coverage, which is a type of sparsity issues. In addition, expensive model-building may lead to performance instability since changes in the domain environment cannot be immediately incorporated into the model due to high costs involved. Cumulative changes in the domain environment that have failed to be reflected eventually undermine system performance. This study incorporates the Markov model of transition probabilities and the concept of fuzzy clustering with CBCF to propose predictive clustering-based CF (PCCF) that solves the issues of reduced coverage and of unstable performance. The method improves performance instability by tracking the changes in user preferences and bridging the gap between the static model and dynamic users. Furthermore, the issue of reduced coverage also improves by expanding the coverage based on transition probabilities and clustering probabilities. The proposed method consists of four processes. First, user preferences are normalized in preference clustering. Second, changes in user preferences are detected from review score entries during preference transition detection. Third, user propensities are normalized using patterns of changes (propensities) in user preferences in propensity clustering. Lastly, the preference prediction model is developed to predict user preferences for items during preference prediction. The proposed method has been validated by testing the robustness of performance instability and scalability-performance tradeoff. The initial test compared and analyzed the performance of individual recommender systems each enabled by IBCF, CBCF, ICFEC and PCCF under an environment where data sparsity had been minimized. The following test adjusted the optimal number of clusters in CBCF, ICFEC and PCCF for a comparative analysis of subsequent changes in the system performance. The test results revealed that the suggested method produced insignificant improvement in performance in comparison with the existing techniques. In addition, it failed to achieve significant improvement in the standard deviation that indicates the degree of data fluctuation. Notwithstanding, it resulted in marked improvement over the existing techniques in terms of range that indicates the level of performance fluctuation. The level of performance fluctuation before and after the model generation improved by 51.31% in the initial test. Then in the following test, there has been 36.05% improvement in the level of performance fluctuation driven by the changes in the number of clusters. This signifies that the proposed method, despite the slight performance improvement, clearly offers better performance stability compared to the existing techniques. Further research on this study will be directed toward enhancing the recommendation performance that failed to demonstrate significant improvement over the existing techniques. The future research will consider the introduction of a high-dimensional parameter-free clustering algorithm or deep learning-based model in order to improve performance in recommendations.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.607-614
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• 2016

The objectives of the study were to estimate genetic parameters for milk production traits of Holstein cattle using random regression models (RRMs), and to compare the goodness of fit of various RRMs with homogeneous and heterogeneous residual variances. A total of 126,980 test-day milk production records of the first parity Holstein cows between 2007 and 2014 from the Dairy Cattle Improvement Center of National Agricultural Cooperative Federation in South Korea were used. These records included milk yield (MILK), fat yield (FAT), protein yield (PROT), and solids-not-fat yield (SNF). The statistical models included random effects of genetic and permanent environments using Legendre polynomials (LP) of the third to fifth order (L3-L5), fixed effects of herd-test day, year-season at calving, and a fixed regression for the test-day record (third to fifth order). The residual variances in the models were either homogeneous (HOM) or heterogeneous (15 classes, HET15; 60 classes, HET60). A total of nine models (3 orders of $polynomials{\times}3$ types of residual variance) including L3-HOM, L3-HET15, L3-HET60, L4-HOM, L4-HET15, L4-HET60, L5-HOM, L5-HET15, and L5-HET60 were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC) and/or Schwarz Bayesian information criteria (BIC) statistics to identify the model(s) of best fit for their respective traits. The lowest BIC value was observed for the models L5-HET15 (MILK; PROT; SNF) and L4-HET15 (FAT), which fit the best. In general, the BIC values of HET15 models for a particular polynomial order was lower than that of the HET60 model in most cases. This implies that the orders of LP and types of residual variances affect the goodness of models. Also, the heterogeneity of residual variances should be considered for the test-day analysis. The heritability estimates of from the best fitted models ranged from 0.08 to 0.15 for MILK, 0.06 to 0.14 for FAT, 0.08 to 0.12 for PROT, and 0.07 to 0.13 for SNF according to days in milk of first lactation. Genetic variances for studied traits tended to decrease during the earlier stages of lactation, which were followed by increases in the middle and decreases further at the end of lactation. With regards to the fitness of the models and the differential genetic parameters across the lactation stages, we could estimate genetic parameters more accurately from RRMs than from lactation models. Therefore, we suggest using RRMs in place of lactation models to make national dairy cattle genetic evaluations for milk production traits in Korea.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.77-93
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• 2015

The idea of using measured dynamic characteristics for damage detection is attractive because it allows for a global evaluation of the structural health and condition. However, vibration-based damage detection for complex structures such as long-span cable-supported bridges still remains a challenge. As a suspension or cable-stayed bridge involves in general thousands of structural components, the conventional damage detection methods based on model updating and/or parameter identification might result in ill-conditioning and non-uniqueness in the solution of inverse problems. Alternatively, methods that utilize, to the utmost extent, information from forward problems and avoid direct solution to inverse problems would be more suitable for vibration-based damage detection of long-span cable-supported bridges. The auto-associative neural network (ANN) technique and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) technique, that both eschew inverse problems, have been proposed for identifying and locating damage in suspension and cable-stayed bridges. Without the help of a structural model, ANNs with appropriate configuration can be trained using only the measured modal frequencies from healthy structure under varying environmental conditions, and a new set of modal frequency data acquired from an unknown state of the structure is then fed into the trained ANNs for damage presence identification. With the help of a structural model, PNNs can be configured using the relative changes of modal frequencies before and after damage by assuming damage at different locations, and then the measured modal frequencies from the structure can be presented to locate the damage. However, such formulated ANNs and PNNs may still be incompetent to identify damage occurring at the deck members of a cable-supported bridge because of very low modal sensitivity to the damage. The present study endeavors to enhance the damage identification capability of ANNs and PNNs when being applied for identification of damage incurred at deck members. Effort is first made to construct combined modal parameters which are synthesized from measured modal frequencies and modal shape components to train ANNs for damage alarming. With the purpose of improving identification accuracy, effort is then made to configure PNNs for damage localization by adapting the smoothing parameter in the Bayesian classifier to different values for different pattern classes. The performance of the ANNs with their input being modal frequencies and the combined modal parameters respectively and the PNNs with constant and adaptive smoothing parameters respectively is evaluated through simulation studies of identifying damage inflicted on different deck members of the double-deck suspension Tsing Ma Bridge.