• Atmosphere
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.199-211
• /
• 2009

In this paper, we examine the multiple change-point and change pattern in the 54 years (1954-2007) time series of the annual and the heavy precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) averaged over South Korea. A Bayesian approach is used for detecting of mean and/or variance changes in a sequence of independent univariate normal observations. Using non-informative priors for the parameters, the Bayesian model selection is performed by the posterior probability through the intrinsic Bayes factor of Berger and Pericchi (1996). To investigate the significance of the changes in the precipitation characteristics between before and after the change-point, the posterior probability and 90% highest posterior density credible intervals are examined. The results showed that no significant changes have occurred in the annual precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) and the heavy precipitation intensity. On the other hand, a statistically significant single change has occurred around 1996 or 1997 in the heavy precipitation days and amount. The heavy precipitation amount and days have increased after the change-point but no changes in the variances.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.111-120
• /
• 2008

This study presents a change-point in the 30 years (1976-2005) time series of the annual and the heavy precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) averaged over South Korea using Bayesian approach. The criterion for the heavy precipitation used in this study is 80 mm/day. Using non-informative priors, the exact Bayes estimators of parameters and unknown change-point are obtained. Also, the posterior probability and 90% highest posterior density credible intervals for the mean differences between before and after the change-point are examined. The results show that a single change-point in the precipitation intensity and the heavy precipitation characteristics has occurred around 1996. As the results, the precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation characteristics have clearly increased after the change-point. However, the annual precipitation amount and days show a statistically insignificant single change-point model. These results are consistent with earlier works based on a simple linear regression model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.6 no.3
• /
• pp.801-812
• /
• 1999

Change-point hazard rate models arise for example in applying "burn-in" techniques to screen defective items and in studing times until undesirable side effects occur in clinical trials. Sometimes in screening defectives it might be sensible to model two stages of burn-in. In a clinical trial there might be an initial hazard rate for a side effect which after a period of time changes to an intermediate hazard rate before settling into a long term hazard rate. In this paper we consider the multiple change points hazard rate model. The classical approach's asymptotics can be poor for the small to all moderate sample sizes often encountered in practice. We propose a Bayesian approach avoiding asymptotics to provide more reliable inference conditional only upon the data actually observed. The Bayesian models can be fitted using simulation methods. Model comparison is made using recently developed Bayesian model selection criteria. The above methodology is applied to a generated data and to a generated data and the Lawless(1982) failure times of electrical insulation.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.687-695
• /
• 2009

The Bayesian multiple change-point estimation has been applied to the daily means of ozone and PM10 data in Seoul for the period 1999. We focus on the detection of multiple change-points in the ozone and PM10 bivariate vectors by evaluating the posterior probabilities and Bayesian information criterion(BIC) using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo(SAMC) algorithm. The result gives 5 change-points of mean vectors of ozone and PM10, which are related with the seasonal characteristics.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.491-501
• /
• 2006

We consider a multiple change point model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The model assumes that all or the part of the parameters in the ARCH equation change over time. The occurrence of the change points is modelled as the discrete time Markov process with unknown transition probabilities. The model is estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on the approach of Chib (1998). Simulation is performed using a variant of perfect sampling algorithm to achieve the accuracy and efficiency. We apply the proposed model to the simulated data for verifying the usefulness of the model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.237-246
• /
• 2012

Bayesian methods have been recently used to identify multiple change-points. However, the studies for small data are limited. This paper suggests the Bayesian noncentral t distribution change-point model for small data, and applies the Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs Sampling algorithm to the proposed model. Numerical results of simulation and real data show the performance of the new model in terms of the quality of the resulting estimation of the numbers and positions of change-points for small data.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.281-301
• /
• 2004

In this paper we consider the change point problem in a sequence of univariate normal observations. We want to know whether there is any change point or not. In case a change point exists, we will identify its change type. Namely, it can be a mean change, a variance change, or both the mean and variance change. The intrinsic Bayes factors of Berger and Pericchi (1996, 1998) are used to find the type of optimal change model. The Gibbs sampling including the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate all the parameters in the change model. These methods are checked via simulation and applied to the winter average temperature data in Seoul.

• International Journal of Quality Innovation
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2004

The nonhomogeneous poisson process (NHPP) is often used to model repairable systems that are subject to a minimal repair strategy, with negligible repair times. In this situation, the system can be characterized by its intensity function. There have been many NHPP models according to intensity functions. However, the intensity function of system in use can be changed because of repair or its aging. We consider the single change point model as the modification of the power law process. The shape parameter of its intensity function is changed before and after the change point. We detect the presence of the change point using Bayesian methodology. Some numerical results are also presented.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.139-147
• /
• 2005

It is interesting to locate homogeneous segments within a DNA sequence. Suppose that the DNA sequence has segments within which the observations follow the same residue frequency distribution, and between which observations have different distributions. In this setting, change points correspond to the end points of these segments. This article explores the use of a binary segmentation procedure in detecting the change points in the DNA sequence. The change points are determined using a sequence of nested hypothesis tests of whether a change point exists. At each test, we compare no change-point model with a single change-point model by using the Bayesian information criterion. Thus, the method circumvents the computational complexity one would normally face in problems with an unknown number of change points. We illustrate the procedure by analyzing the genome of the bacteriophage lambda.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.621-633
• /
• 2006

In this paper, we estimate multiple change-points when the data follow the normal distributions in the Bayesian way. Evolutionary Monte Carlo (EMC) algorithm is applied into general Bayesian model with variable-dimension parameters and shows its usefulness and efficiency as a promising tool especially for computational issues. The method is applied to the humidity data of Seoul and the final model is determined based on BIC.