• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.31.2-31.2
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• 2021

To estimate the contribution of quasars on keeping the IGM ionized, building a quasar luminosity function (LF) is necessary. Quasar LFs derived from multiple quasar surveys, however, are incompatible, especially for the faint regime, emphasizing the need for deep images. In this study, we construct quasar LF reaching M₁₄₅₀~-21.5 AB magnitude at z ~ 5, which is 1.5 mag deeper than previously reported LFs, using deep images from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). We trained an artificial neural network (ANN) by inserting the colors as inputs to classify the quasars at z ~ 5 from the late-type stars and low-redshift galaxies. The accuracy of ANN is > 99 %. We also adopted the Bayesian information criterion to elaborate on the quasar-like objects. As a result, we recovered 5/5 confirmed quasars and remarkably minimized the contamination rate of high-redshift galaxies by up to six times compared to the selection using color selection alone. The constructed quasar parametric LF shows a flatter faint-end slope α=-127^+0.16_-0.15 similar to the recent LFs. The number of faint quasars (M₁₄₅₀ < -23.5) is too few to be the main contributor to IGM ionizing photons.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.495-503
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• 2014

In recent days, a study of the intrusion detection system collecting and analyzing network data, packet or logs, has been actively performed to response the network threats in computer security fields. In particular, Bayesian network has advantage of the inference functionality which can infer with only some of provided data, so studies of the intrusion system based on Bayesian network have been conducted in the prior. However, there were some limitations to calculate high detection performance because it didn't consider the problems as like complexity of the relation among network packets or continuos input data processing. Therefore, in this paper we proposed two methodologies based on K-menas clustering to improve detection rate by reforming the problems of prior models. At first, it can be improved by sophisticatedly setting interval range of nodes based on K-means clustering. And for the second, it can be improved by calculating robust CPT through applying weighted-leaning based on K-means clustering, too. We conducted the experiments to prove performance of our proposed methodologies by comparing K_WTAN_EM applied to proposed two methodologies with prior models. As the results of experiment, the detection rate of proposed model is higher about 7.78% than existing NBN(Naive Bayesian Network) IDS model, and is higher about 5.24% than TAN(Tree Augmented Bayesian Network) IDS mode and then we could prove excellence our proposing ideas.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.103 no.2
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• pp.182-188
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• 2014

Genetic diversity and genetic differentiation in six natural populations of Abies holophylla Max were investigated using ISSR marker system. From 6 ISSR primers, the average percentage of polymorphic loci was 85.6%, and the average expected heterozygosity ($H_e$) was 0.288. From the result of AMOVA, 94.4% of total genetic variation came from the differences among individuals within populations, and 5.6% was caused by those of among-populations. On the basis of Bayesian inference, genetic differentiation (${\theta}^{II}$ and $G_{ST}$) and inbreeding coefficient for all populations were 0.045, 0.038, and 0.509, respectively. The correlation between genetic distance and geographical distance was highly significant at the Mental's test (r = 0.74, P < 0.05). Six populations divided into two groups according to the results of UPGMA and PCA. One group included Namwon, Cheongdo and Mungyeong population. The other was Inje, Hongcheon and Pyeongchang population. Also, in Bayesian clustering analysis, 6 populations were divided into two clusters. But Cheongdo population was assigned into the other cluster unlike those of UPGMA or PCA. Taking the regions based on the results of the cluster analysis into consideration of AMOVA, 3.9% of genetic variation came from the regional difference. The dendrogram from UPGMA could provide the most genetically reasonable explanation for the distribution of Abies holophylla populations in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.39-48
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• 2009

Fisher information matrix plays an important role in statistical inference of unknown parameters. Especially, it is used in objective Bayesian inference which derives to the posterior distribution using a noninformative prior distribution and is an example of metric functions in geometry. The more parameters for estimating in a distribution are, the more complicate derivation of the Fisher information matrix for the distribution is. In this paper, we derive to the Fisher information matrix for 3-parameters Weibull distribution which is used in reliability theory using Mathematica programs.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.735-744
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• 2009

In this paper, we introduce a fast approach for Bayesian detection of change points in long-memory processes. Since a heavy computation is needed to evaluate the likelihood function of long-memory processes, a method for simplifying the computational process is required to efficiently implement a Bayesian inference. Instead of estimating the parameter, we consider selecting a element from the set of possible parameters obtained by categorizing the parameter space. This approach simplifies the detection algorithm and reduces the computational time to detect change points. Since the parameter space is (0, 0.5), there is no big difference between the result of parameter estimation and selection under a proper fractionation of the parameter space. The analysis of Nile river data showed the validation of the proposed method.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.121-129
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• 2020

The increase of impervious surface and development along the river due to urbanization not only causes an increase in the number of associated flood risk factors but also exacerbates flood damage, leading to difficulties in flood management. Flood control measures should be prioritized based on various geographical information in urban areas. In this study, a probabilistic flood hazard assessment was applied to flood-prone areas near an urban river. Flood hazard maps were alternatively considered and used to describe the expected inundation areas for a given set of predictors such as elevation, slope, runoff curve number, and distance to river. This study proposes a Bayesian logistic regression-based flood risk model that aims to provide a probabilistic risk metric such as population-at-risk (PAR). Finally, the logistic regression model demonstrates the probabilistic flood hazard maps for the entire area.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1039-1047
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• 2014

An autoregressive model with normal errors is a natural model that attempts to fit time series data. More flexible models that include normal distribution as a special case are necessary because they can cover normality to non-normality models. The skewed exponential power distribution is a possible candidate for autoregressive models errors that may have tails lighter(platykurtic) or heavier(leptokurtic) than normal and skewness; in addition, the use of skewed exponential power distribution can reduce the influence of outliers and consequently increases the robustness of the analysis. We use SIR algorithm and grid method for an efficient Bayesian estimation.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.541-572
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• 2016

Causal reasoning is actively studied not only by psychologists but, in recent years, also by cognitive scientists taking the Bayesian approach. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the recent trends in causal reasoning research with a focus on the power probabilistic contrast theory of causality, a major psychological theory on causal inference. The power probabilistic contrast theory (PPCT) assumes that a cause is a power that initiates or inhibits the result. This power is purported be understood through statistical correlation under certain conditions. The paper examines the supporting empirical evidence in the development of PPCT. Also, introduced are the theoretical dispute between the PPCT and the model based on Bayesian approach, and the current developments and implications of research on causal invariance hypothesis, which states that cause operates identically regardless of the context. Recent studies have produced experimental results that cannot be readily explained by existing empirical approach. Therefore, these results call for serious examination of the power theory of causality by researchers in neighboring fields such as philosophy, statistics, and artificial intelligence.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.413-413
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• 2011

강우의 공간분포에 대한 신뢰성 있는 추정은 수자원 해석 및 설계에 있어서 필수적인 요소이다. 강우장의 공간변동성에 대한 고해상도 추정은 홍수, 특히 돌발홍수의 원인이 되는 국지성 호우의 확인 및 분석에 있어서 중요하다. 또한 강우의 공간 변동성에 대한 고려는 면적평균강우량 추정의 정확도를 향상시키는데 있어서 중요하며, 강우-유출모델의 모의결과에 대한 신뢰도를 향상시키는데 큰 영향을 미친다. 최근 공간자료에 대한 공간분포예측에 있어서 공간상관성을 고려할 수 있는 공간통계학적 기법의 적용이 증가하고 있으며, 이러한 공간통계학적 기법의 적용에 있어서 신뢰성 있는 모델 매개변수의 추정 및 불확실성 평가는 공간분포 예측결과에 대한 신뢰성을 향상시키는데 중요한 역할을 한다. 외국의 경우 공간분포예측 및 모의, 매개변수의 불확실성 평가 등과 관련하여 활발한 연구가 이루어지고 있는 반면 국내 수자원 분야에서는 아직까지 활발한 연구가 이루어지고 있지 않은 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 계층구조로 구성된 가우시안 공간선형혼합모델을 적용하여 확률강우량의 공간분포를 추정함에 있어서 모델 매개변수에 대한 추정기법을 비교하였으며, 매개변수 추정기법으로서 경험베리오그램에 대한 곡선적합기법인 보통최소제곱법 및 가중최소제곱법, 우도함수를 기반으로 하는 최우도법 및 REML과 같은 기존의 매개변수 추정기법들과 최근 공간통계학 분야에서 적용이 증가하고 있는 Bayesian 기법을 비교하였다. 이로부터 매개변수 추정기법 간의 매개변수 추정치에 대한 정량적 비교결과를 제시하였으며, Bayesian 기법의 적용을 통해 매개변수에 대한 불확실성 추정결과를 제시하였다. 이러한 결과들은 확률강우량의 공간분포 추정에 있어서 공간예측모델의 매개변수 추정 및 예측에 대한 신뢰성을 향상시킬 수 있는 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.6 no.8
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• pp.2060-2071
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• 1999

The complicate software failure system is defined to the superposition of the points of failure from several component point process. Because the likelihood function is difficulty in computing, we consider Gibbs sampler using iteration sampling based method. For each observed failure epoch, we applied to latent variables that indicates with component of the superposition mode. For model selection, we explored the posterior Bayesian criterion and the sum of relative errors for the comparison simple pattern with superposition model. A numerical example with NHPP simulated data set applies the thinning method proposed by Lewis and Shedler[25] is given, we consider Goel-Okumoto model and Weibull model with GOS, inference of parameter is studied. Using the posterior Bayesian criterion and the sum of relative errors, as we would expect, the superposition model is best on model under diffuse priors.