• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.114-122
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• 2014

Currently, global warming has become a serious problem arising from the usage of fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum. Moreover, due to the global warming, heat wave, heavy snow, heavy rain, super typhoon are frequently occurring all over the world. Due to these serious natural disasters, concrete structures and infrastructures are seriously damaged or collapsed. In order to handle these problems, climate change oriented construction technology and codes are necessary at this time. Therefore, in this study, the validity of the present concrete mixture proportions are evaluated considering temperature and humidity change. The specimens cured at various temperature and humidity conditions were tested to obtain their compressive and split tensile strengths at various curing ages. Moreover, performance based evaluation (PBE) method was used to analyze the satisfaction percentage of the concrete cured at various condition. From the probabilistic method of performance evaluation of concrete performance, feasibility and usability can be determined for future concrete mix design.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.89-90
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• 2016

Anomalous propagation echo is a kind of abnormal radar signal occurred by irregularly refracted radar beam caused by temperature or humidity. The echo frequently appears in ground-based weather radar. In order to improve accuracy of weather forecasting, it is important to analyze radar data precisely. Therefore, there are several ongoing researches about identifying the anomalous propagation echo all over the world. This paper conducts researches about a classification method which can distinguish anomalous propagation echo in the radar data using naive Bayes classifier and unique attributes of the echo such as reflectivity, altitude, and so on. It is confirmed that the fine classification results are derived by verifying the suggested naive Bayes classifier using actual appearance cases of the echo.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.597-606
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• 2010

This paper describes a real-time camera tracking framework specifically designed to track a monocular camera in an AR workspace. Typically, the Kalman filter is often employed for the camera tracking. In general, however, tracking performances of conventional methods are seriously affected by unpredictable situations such as ambiguity in feature detection, occlusion of features and rapid camera shake. In this paper, a recursive Bayesian sampling framework which is also known as the particle filter is adopted for the camera pose estimation. In our system, the camera state is estimated on the basis of the Gaussian distribution without employing additional uncertainty model and sample weight computation. In addition, the camera state is directly computed based on new sample particles which are distributed according to the true posterior of system state. In order to verify the proposed system, we conduct several experiments for unstable situations in the desktop AR environments.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.43 no.7
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• pp.795-800
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• 2016

In image classification, recent CNNs compete with human performance. However, there are limitations in more general recognition. Herein we deal with indoor images that contain too much information to be directly processed and require information reduction before recognition. To reduce the amount of data processing, typically variational inference or variational Bayesian methods are suggested for object detection. However, these methods suffer from the difficulty of marginalizing over the given space. In this study, we propose an image-text integrated recognition system using active vision based on Spatial Transformer Networks. The system attempts to efficiently sample a partial region of a given image for a given language information. Our experimental results demonstrate a significant improvement over traditional approaches. We also discuss the results of qualitative analysis of sampled images, model characteristics, and its limitations.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.87-87
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• 2017

최근 이상기후로 인해 국내 가뭄피해가 증가하고 있는 추세이며, 미래 가뭄의 심도 및 지속시간은 증가할 것으로 예측되고 있다. 특히 우리나라는 용수공급의 56.5%를 댐에 의존하여 댐 유역의 가뭄은 생 공 농업용수 공급제한 등의 광범위한 피해를 발생시킬 수 있다. 다만 가뭄은 홍수와 달리 진행속도가 비교적 느리기 때문에 사전에 정확한 댐 유입량 예측이 가능하다면, 용수공급량 조정을 통해 피해를 최소화할 수 있다. 국내에서는 댐 유입량 예측에 ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) 기법을 활용하고 있으며, ESP 기법은 과거 기상자료를 기반으로 미래를 예측하기 때문에 기상자료, 초기수문조건, 매개변수 등에 불확실성을 가지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 베이지안 이론을 이용하여 댐 예측유입량의 정확도 향상기법을 개발하고 예측성을 평가하고자 하며, 강우유출모델은 ABCD를 활용하였다. 대상유역은 국내의 대표 다목적댐인 충주댐 유역을 선정하였으며, 기상자료는 기상청, 국토교통부 및 한국수자원공사의 지점자료를 수집하였다. 예측성 평가기법으로는 도시적 분석방법인 시계열 분석, 통계적 분석방법인 Skill Score (SS)를 활용하였다. 시계열 분석 결과 ESP 댐 예측유입량(ESP)은 매년 월별 전망값의 큰 차이가 없었으며, 다우년 및 과우년의 예측성이 떨어지는 것으로 나타났다. 베이지안 기반의 댐 예측유입량(BAYES-ESP)는 ESP의 과소모의하는 경향을 보정하였으며, 다우년에 예측성이 향상되었다. 월별 평균 댐 관측유입량과 ESP, BAYES-ESP의 SS 비교분석 결과 ESP는 유입량 값이 적은 1, 2, 3월에 SS가 양의 값을 가졌으며, 이외의 월에는 음의 값으로 나타났다. BAYES-ESP는 ESP와 관측값이 비교적 선형관계를 나타내는 1, 2, 3월에 ESP의 예측성을 개선시키는 것으로 나타났다. ESP 기법은 강수량의 월별, 계절별 변동성이 큰 우리나라에 적용하기에는 예측성의 한계가 있었으며, 이를 개선한 BAYES-ESP 기법은 댐 유입량 예측 연구에 가치가 있는 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.333-340
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• 2019

A combat system performs a given mission enduring various threats. It is important to analyze the reliability of combat systems in order to increase their ability to perform a given mission. Most of studies considered no threat or on threat and didn't analyze all the dependent relationships among the components. In this paper, we analyze the loss probability of the function of the combat system and use it to analyze the reliability. The proposed method is divided into two layers, A lower layer and a upper layer. In lower layer, the failure probability of each components is derived by using FTA to consider various threats. In the upper layer, The loss probability of function is analyzed using the failure probability of the component derived from lower layer and BBN in order to consider the dependent relationships among the components. Using the proposed method, it is possible to analyze considering various threats and the dependency between components.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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• v.38 no.7
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• pp.647-656
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• 2014

To supplement the ISO-GUM method for the evaluation of measurement uncertainty, a simulation program using the Monte Carlo method (MCM) was developed, and the MCM and GUM methods were compared. The results are as follows: (1) Even under a non-normal probability distribution of the measurand, MCM provides an accurate coverage interval; (2) Even if a probability distribution that emerged from combining a few non-normal distributions looks as normal, there are cases in which the actual distribution is not normal and the non-normality can be determined by the probability distribution of the combined variance; and (3) If type-A standard uncertainties are involved in the evaluation of measurement uncertainty, GUM generally offers an under-valued coverage interval. However, this problem can be solved by the Bayesian evaluation of type-A standard uncertainty. In this case, the effective degree of freedom for the combined variance is not required in the evaluation of expanded uncertainty, and the appropriate coverage factor for 95% level of confidence was determined to be 1.96.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.581-594
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• 2011

The traditional method of 3+3 standard design and model-based Bayesian continual reassessment method (CRM) are commonly used in Phase I clinical trials to identify the maximal tolerated dose(MTD) of a new drug. In this paper we review clinical examples of Phase I trials that were carried out in patients with refractory or relapsed leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome. The recently proposed 3+1+1 design and rolling-6 design can shorten the trial duration, when a very slow accrual of patients with a simple 3+3 standard design may result in the untimely termination of trials. Too conservative approaches in determining the dose levels in Phase I clinical trials can leave clinical investigators unable to accurately determine the MTD. When determining future patient doses, the designs that use a time-to-event CRM can cooperate late toxicities by accounting for the proportion of the observation period of each enrolled patient. With the CRM design, simulations under different scenarios during the trial are important in detecting the under- or over-estimation of the initial estimate of the dose-limiting toxicity rate for each dose level. We present the advantages and drawbacks of the designs used in Phase I clinical trials for leukemia patients.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.287-297
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• 2011

As electronic mails are being widely used for facility and speedness of information communication, as the amount of spam mails which have malice and advertisement increase and cause lots of social and economic problem. A number of approaches have been proposed to alleviate the impact of spam. These approaches can be categorized into pre-acceptance and post-acceptance methods. Post-acceptance methods include bayesian filters, collaborative filtering and e-mail prioritization which are based on words or sentances. But, spammers are changing those characteristics and sending to avoid filtering system. In the case of Korean, the abnormal usages can be much more than other languages because syllable is composed of chosung, jungsung, and jongsung. Existing formal expressions and learning algorithms have the limits to meet with those changes promptly and efficiently. So, we present an methods for recognizing Korean abnormal language(Koral) to improve accuracy and efficiency of filtering system. The method is based on syllabic than word and Smith-waterman algorithm. Through the experiment on filter keyword and e-mail extracted from mail server, we confirmed that Koral is recognized exactly according to similarity level. The required time and space costs are within the permitted limit.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.27 no.8
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• pp.855-863
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• 2000

Although Behavior-Knowledge Space (BKS) method, one of well known decision combination methods, does not need any assumptions in combining the multiple experts, it should theoretically build exponential storage spaces for storing and managing jointly observed K decisions from K experts. That is, combining K experts needs a (K+1)st-order probability distribution. However, it is well known that the distribution becomes unmanageable in storing and estimating, even for a small K. In order to overcome such weakness, it has been studied to decompose a probability distribution into a number of component distributions and to approximate the distribution with a product of the component distributions. One of such previous works is to apply a conditional independence assumption to the distribution. Another work is to approximate the distribution with a product of only first-order tree dependencies or second-order distributions as shown in [1]. In this paper, higher order dependency than the first-order is considered in approximating the distribution and a dependency-based framework is proposed to optimally approximate the (K+1)st-order probability distribution with a product set of dth-order dependencies where ($1{\le}d{\le}K$), and to combine multiple experts based on the product set using the Bayesian formalism. This framework was experimented and evaluated with a standardized CENPARMI data base.