• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bass 확산

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Forecasting of Inspection Demand for Pressure Vessels in Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle using Bass Diffusion Model (Bass 확산모델을 이용한 수소전기차 내압용기 검사수요 예측)

  • Kim, Ji-Yu;Kim, Eui-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.16-26
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    • 2021
  • The global warming problem has arose, the supply eco-friendly vehicles such as HFCEVs is increasing around world and Korea is fully supporting subsidies, tax cut to form an initial market for HFCEVs. The key to the safety of HFCEVs is pressure vessels stored hydrogen, and although these pressure vessels must be inspection regularly, the existing inspection stations are insufficient to meet the demand for inspection. Therefore, it is important to establishment of pressure vessels inspection station for safety management of HFCEVs. In this study, it estimates innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient in Bass model by using electric vehicle sales data, and foretasted the supply of HFCEVs by region & the demand for inspection by region using the Bass diffusion model. As a result, the inspection demand for pressure vessels in HFCEVs in 2040 was 690,759 units, and it was confirmed 191 new inspection stations and 1,124 inspectors were needed to prepare for this.

A Study on the Demand Forecasting using Diffusion Models and Growth Curve Models (확산모형과 성장곡선모형을 이용한 중장기 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • 강현철;최종후
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.233-243
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    • 2001
  • 중장기 수요예측을 위해 자주 사용되는 방법으로 확산모형과 성장곡선모형을 들 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이들 방법론의 성격 및 실제 적용에 있어 모수추정에 따른 문제점들을 살펴보고, 모수추정을 효율적으로 수행하기 위한 전략을 제시한다. 또한 실제 자료에 각 방법론들을 적용하여 예측결과를 비교한다.

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A Study on Diffusion Models Capturing Technological Substitution (기술적 대체를 반영한 확산모형에 대한 연구)

  • 박세훈
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.46-70
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구는 첨단기술 제품들에서 볼 수 있는 지속적인 기술혁신으로 인하여 새롭게 시장에 진입하는 신규세대 제품과 이전세대 제품들의 동태적 판매량을 묘사하고 예측할 수 있는 모형들을 제시하고 비교·분석하는데 목적이 있다. 본 논문에서는 Bass(1969)의 내구성 소비재에 대한 최초구매 확산모형을 기반으로 하여 개발된 기술적 대체를 반영한 확산모형들, 즉 Norton and Bass(1987), Mahajan and Muller(1996), Jun and Park(1999)의 모형들의 이론적인 틀과 가정들을 비교·분석함으로써 기존 모형과는 변수와 계수의 의미가 다른 모형을 제시하고, 전세계 DRAM 반도체 출하량 자료를 사용하여 모형들 간의 경험적 비교를 행하였다. Jun and Park(1999)이 전세계 DRAM 반도체 출하량 자료에 적용하기 위하여 새롭게 개발한 타입 II 모형(즉 JP2)은 본 연구의 경험적 비교의 결과에 비추어 볼 때 그들의 타입 I 모형이 취한 가정들을 변화시켜서 모형을 구성하는 변수들과 계수들의 의미가 달라진 JPI 모형 또는 Norton and Bass(1987)의 모형(즉 NB1)보다 실제 적용에 있어서 열등할 수 있다는 것을 본 연구는 보여주었다.

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Economic Value Analysis of Document Delivery Services at Foreign Journal Supporting Center by the Parameter Estimates of Bass Diffusion Model (Bass 확산모형 추정에 의한 외국학술지 지원센터 원문복사서비스의 경제적 가치 분석)

  • Choi, Jae-Hwang;Park, Yong-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate economic value of document delivery services(DDS) at foreign journal supporting center in K University library. For this study, Bass diffusion model, which is widely used in forecasting, especially new product and new service forecasting, was adopted. User survey was also carried out from September 10 to 20, 2007. As a result, useful value(UV) of DDS is estimated about not less than 2,000,000,000 won, and willingness to pay(WTP) is estimated about less than 2,000,000,000 won. This study, economic value analysis at foreign journal supporting center, was limited to DDS, and used methodology for the study is also limited to UV and WTP. Demographic analysis(i.e., sex, age, occupation, educational level) for UV and WTP is also conducted.

A Study on Technological Forecasting of Next-Generation Display Technology (차세대 디스플레이 기술의 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Ki-Woong;Park, Sang-Sung;Shin, Young-Geun;Jung, Won-Gyo;Jang, Dong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.2923-2934
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents study on technological forecasting of Next-Generation Display technology. Next-Generation Display technology is one of the emerging technologies lately. So databases on patent documents of this technology were analyzed first. And patent analysis was performed for finding out present technology trend. And the forecast for this technology was made by growth curves which were obtained from forecast models using patent documents. In previous study, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass were used for forecasting diffusion of demand in market. Gompertz, Logistic models which were often used for technological forecasting, too. So, two models were applied in this study. But Gompertz, Logistic models only consider internal effect of diffusion. And it is difficult to estimate maximum value of growth in two models. So, Bass model which considers both internal effect and external effect of diffusion was also applied. And maximum value of growth in Gompertz, Logistic models was estimated by Bass model.

Diffusion Model을 활용한 온라인 게임 간 수요 확산패턴 연구

  • Choe, Jeong-Uk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2006
  • Online game industry is one of the most value added industry and continues to grow rapidly nowadays. This paper classifies the diffusion patterns of online games according to online game genre, estimates coefficients of innovation and imitation using Bass model, extracts the Bass-based adoption life cycle model which reflects the properties of each game, and then analyzes the diffusion pattern of each game. Through the research on the diffusion pattern of online games, if we can identify the characteristics of changing market and consumers in accordance with the product life cycle, we will provide the implications to the marketing strategy, which have to change at every stage of adoption life cycle, not to mention to investment plan.

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Forecasting the Diffusion of Technology using Patent Information: Focused on Information Security Technology for Network-Centric Warfare (특허정보를 활용한 기술 확산 예측: NCW 정보보호기술을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Do-Hoe;Park, Sang-Sung;Shin, Young-Geun;Jang, Dong-Sik
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.125-132
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    • 2009
  • The paradigm of economy has been transformed into knowledge based economic paradigm in 21th century. Analysis of patent trend is one of the strategic methods for increasing their patent competitive power. However, this method is just presenting statistical data about patent trend or qualitative analysis about some core technology. In this paper, we forecast technology diffusion using patent information for more progressive analysis. We make an experiment with bass model and logistic model and make use of patent data about information-security technology for NCW as input data. We conclude that the logistic model is more efficient for forecasting and this technology is approaching to the age of technology maturity.

Forecasting methodology of future demand market (미래 수요시장의 예측 방법론)

  • Oh, Sang-young
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2020
  • The method of predicting the future may be predicted by technical characteristics or technical performance. Therefore, technology prediction is used in the field of strategic research that can produce economic and social benefits. In this study, we predicted the future market through the study of how to predict the future with these technical characteristics. The future prediction method was studied through the prediction of the time when the market occupied according to the demand of special product. For forecasting market demand, we proposed the future forecasting model through comparison of representative quantitative analysis methods such as CAGR model, BASS model, Logistic model and Gompertz Growth Curve. This study combines Rogers' theory of innovation diffusion to predict when products will spread to the market. As a result of the research, we developed a methodology to predict when a particular product will mature in the future market through the spread of various factors for the special product to occupy the market. However, there are limitations in reducing errors in expert judgment to predict the market.

An Study of Demand Forecasting Methodology Based on Hype Cycle: The Case Study on Hybrid Cars (기대주기 분석을 활용한 수요예측 연구: 하이브리드 자동차의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.spc
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    • pp.1232-1255
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    • 2011
  • This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

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다세대 신상품 확산이론에 대한 평가및 수정모형 개발에 관한 연구

  • 박윤서;전덕빈;박명환
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1996.04a
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    • pp.487-490
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    • 1996
  • 일반적으로 S자 형태의 누적수요곡선을 따르는 단일 신상품과는 달리 다세대 신상품은 세대간의 진화.대체과정에 의하여 다른 형태의 성장곡선을 따른다. Norton & Bass(87)에 의해 개발된 다세대 확산모형은 단일 신상품만을 주로 다루어온 기존의 확산이론을 확장하여 상품들간의 연관관계를 고려한 모형화를 시도하였다는 점에서 큰의의를 지니고 있다. 그러나 Norton & Bass 모형은 누적수요가 감소하는 경우에만 적용 가능한 모형으로 그들이 논문에서 분석한 전세계 반도체 시장의 경우에는 적용될 수 없는 모형이다. 그들은 신규수요를 누적수요모형에 잘못 적용하는 오류를 범하고 있다. 그들이 제안한 모형은 서비스 상품들의 대체를 설명할 수 있는 모형으로 국한된다. 본 연구에서는 재화재의 경우에 적용 가능한 모형을 개발하며 또한 개발된 모형을 Norton & Bass가 잘못 적용했던 전세계 DRAM 시장에 응용한다.

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