• Title/Summary/Keyword: Base Flow

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Bankruptcy prediction using an improved bagging ensemble (개선된 배깅 앙상블을 활용한 기업부도예측)

  • Min, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.121-139
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    • 2014
  • Predicting corporate failure has been an important topic in accounting and finance. The costs associated with bankruptcy are high, so the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction is greatly important for financial institutions. Lots of researchers have dealt with the topic associated with bankruptcy prediction in the past three decades. The current research attempts to use ensemble models for improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification is to combine individually trained classifiers in order to gain more accurate prediction than individual models. Ensemble techniques are shown to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Bagging is the most commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers. In bagging, the different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the original training dataset. Base classifiers are trained on the different bootstrap samples. Instance selection is to select critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and harmful instances from the original set. Instance selection and bagging are quite well known in data mining. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of instance selection and bagging. This study proposes an improved bagging ensemble based on instance selection using genetic algorithms (GA) for improving the performance of SVM. GA is an efficient optimization procedure based on the theory of natural selection and evolution. GA uses the idea of survival of the fittest by progressively accepting better solutions to the problems. GA searches by maintaining a population of solutions from which better solutions are created rather than making incremental changes to a single solution to the problem. The initial solution population is generated randomly and evolves into the next generation by genetic operators such as selection, crossover and mutation. The solutions coded by strings are evaluated by the fitness function. The proposed model consists of two phases: GA based Instance Selection and Instance based Bagging. In the first phase, GA is used to select optimal instance subset that is used as input data of bagging model. In this study, the chromosome is encoded as a form of binary string for the instance subset. In this phase, the population size was set to 100 while maximum number of generations was set to 150. We set the crossover rate and mutation rate to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. We used the prediction accuracy of model as the fitness function of GA. SVM model is trained on training data set using the selected instance subset. The prediction accuracy of SVM model over test data set is used as fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. In the second phase, we used the optimal instance subset selected in the first phase as input data of bagging model. We used SVM model as base classifier for bagging ensemble. The majority voting scheme was used as a combining method in this study. This study applies the proposed model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies. The research data used in this study contains 1832 externally non-audited firms which filed for bankruptcy (916 cases) and non-bankruptcy (916 cases). Financial ratios categorized as stability, profitability, growth, activity and cash flow were investigated through literature review and basic statistical methods and we selected 8 financial ratios as the final input variables. We separated the whole data into three subsets as training, test and validation data set. In this study, we compared the proposed model with several comparative models including the simple individual SVM model, the simple bagging model and the instance selection based SVM model. The McNemar tests were used to examine whether the proposed model significantly outperforms the other models. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models.

Quaternary Geology and Paleoecology of Hominid Occupation of Imjin Basin (임진강유역 구석기 공작의 고생태학적 배경)

  • Seonbok Yi
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.25-50
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    • 1988
  • The survival of rich evidence of palaeolithic occupation found in the Imjin-Hant'an River basin was possible due to many fortuitous geological conditions provided there. Formation of the basalt plain in a narrow valley system which developed during the late Mesozoic insured the appearance of a basin of sedimentation in which archaeological sites would be preserved with relatively minor post-depositional disturbance. Geomagnetic and K-Ar dating indicates that lava flows occurred during the Brunes Normal Epoch. During and after the process of basin sedimentation, erosion of the plain was confined to the major channel of the present river system which developed along the structural joints formed by the lava flow. Due to characteristic columnar structure and platy cleavage of the basalt bedrock, erosion of the basalt bedrock occurred mainly in vertical direction, developing deep but narrow entrenched valleys cut into the bedrock. Consequently, the large portion of the site area remained intact. Cultural deposits formed on top of the basalt plain were left unmodified by later fluvial disturbances due to changes in the Hant'an River base-level, since they were formed about 20 to 40m above the modern floodplain. Sedimentological evidence of cultural deposits and palynological analysis of lacustrine bed formed in the tributary basin of the Hant'an River indicate that hominid occupation occurred in this basin under rapidly deteriorating climatic conditions. From three thermoluminescence dates, the timing of hominid occupation as represented by 'Acheulian-like' bifaces apparently occur sometime during 45,000 BP. Thus, deposition of cultural layers in this basin approximately coincides with the beginning of the second stadial of the final glacial, during which the Korean Peninsula must have had provided a sanctuary for prolonged human occupation.

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Material composition and change of baekdong alloy in the late Joseon period (조선후기 백동의 재료 구성과 변화)

  • Kong, Sanghui
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.38-55
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to clarify the historical flow of baekdong alloy's usage according to the alloying materials mentioned in document records. For this purpose, we first overviewed the use of copper as a base material for white copper alloys and other types of copper alloys. Baekdong is an alloy of copper and other metals and is currently defined as an alloy of copper and nickel. However, depending on the research subjects and time of the scholars, baekdong may be defined as a metal with over a certain percentage of tin added to copper, or as an alloy of tin, zinc, and lead with copper. There is disagreement regarding the interpretation of this term. Baekdong, which started to appear in the literature of the Three Kingdoms Period, has been steadily seen through the Goryeo and Chosun Dynasties to the modern period. It has been used in various ways, according to each age and culture, from the symbol of the office to trading goods, daily life goods, and money. In the literature, baekdong's alloying material is not only copper and nickel, which are currently defined as alloys, but it is the same in that copper is used as the base metal of the alloy, although it varies slightly from generation to generation. In addition to copper, tin, zeolite, and emerald, zinc and lead also appeared. It was found that baekdong, which means alloy, and baekdong, which means white metal, were mixed. Nickel, which is the alloy material of baekdong as it is currently defined, is a metal with a relatively high discovery time and is widely used as a material for modern industrial fields. Nickel was introduced into Korea at the end of the Joseon Dynasty, but its use is not known in detail. In this study, we examined the acceptance and use of nickel-based baekdong in articles of modern newspapers and in statistical data. Based on the experience of craftsmen, we estimated the period when nickel-based alloys were used in crafts. Material is a direct factor in the development and deterioration of technology, and the development of technology is the basis for the changing of civilizations and cultures. In this context, this study was to investigate baekdong with the material of alloys as a starting point.

A Stiudy on the Deveplopment of Algorithm for the Representative Unit Hydrograph of a Watershed as a Closed Linear System. (폐선형계로 본 유역대표 단위유량도의 유도를 위한 알고리즘의 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 김재한;이원환
    • Water for future
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 1980
  • An algorithm is developed to derive a representative I hr-unit hydrograph through an analysis of rainfall-runoff relations of a watershed as a closed system. For the base flow seperation of a flood hydrograph the multi-deflection method is proposed herein, which gace better results compared with those by the existing empirical methods. A modified $\Phi$index method is also proposed in this stidy to determine the time distribution rainfall excess of a rainstorm, which is essetially a modification of the commonly used $\Phi$index method of rainfall seperation. With the so-obtained rainfall excess hyetograph and the direct runoff hydrograph a trial and error computation of the ordinates of 1 hr-unit hydrograph was executed in such a manner that the synthesized flood hydrograph closely approximates the observed one, thus resulting a unit hydrograph of a piecewise exponential function type. To verify the validity of this study the 1 hr-unit hydrographs for the Imha and Dongchon in Nagdong River basin, and Yongdam in Geum River basin were derived by this algorithm, and the results were compared with those by the conventional synthetic unit hydrograph method and the Nakayasu method. Besides, the validity of this stiudy was also tested by comparing the observed hydrograph with the one computed by applying the unit hydrograph to a specific rainfall event. To generalize the result of this study a computer program, consisited of a main and three subprograns (for rainfall excess estimation, convolution summation, and sorting), is developed as a package, which is believed to be applicable to other watersheds for the similar purpose as those in this study.

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The Acid Rock Drainage and Hydraulic Characteristics of the Waste Rock Dump (폐석적치장의 산성배수발생 및 수리특성 분석)

  • Cheong, Young Wook;Ji, Sang Woo;Yim, Gil Jae
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2004
  • This study was carried out to plan the prevention of the generation and discharge of Acid Rock Drainage (ARD). The Acid Base Accounting(ABA) test was performed for geological materials such as pit wall, waste rock and stream sediments near the Imgi abandoned pyrophyllite mine in Busan, Korea. In addition, hydraulic characteristics were tested with the disk tension infiltrometer around the waste rock dump. Maximum Potential Acidity(MPA) of geological materials near the Imgi mine was 246.942kg $H_2SO_4/t$, and maximum Acid Neutralising Capacity(ANC) was 8.7kg $H_2SO_4/t$. These results indicate the pit wall and waste rock, except most of stream sediments are acid generating geological materials. These have salt and free hydrogen ion which resulted from oxidation of sulfides. Hence they could be convert rain water to acid rock drainage. Although the waste rock dump of the Imgi mine have very low infiltration rate, slopes of the waste rock dump have many "V" type erosion gullies and multi-layers. These gullies and multi-layers have coarse clastic particle layers which have very large hydraulic conductivity. Through this coarse clastic particle layer a large part of rain flow into ground. And also this layer could function as aeration path which induced oxidation of sulfide minerals and generation of ARD continuously.

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Chronological Study on the Deposits by Indicators of Woody Plants (수목지표(樹木指標)에 의한 하상퇴적지(河床堆積地)의 연대학적(年代學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Chun, Kun Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.81 no.3
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    • pp.263-272
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    • 1992
  • In a torrential river, the flow of debris forms deposits in the river bed, which show the characteristics of the channel bed movement in the watershed. The annual rings of the trees, in the natural evenaged forests on the deposits, indicate when each deposit occurred. Based on the topographical and vegetational indicators on the sediment of Yongcheon and Yeounae rivers, the movement occurrence years were estimated. 1. The cross sectional shapes of deposits in torrential river are in tiers and even-aged forests tend to establish on each tier. 2. Generally the older the forest age is, the higher the height of step from the lowest base tend to become, which indicates discrete movement in magnitude and frequency. 3. The ages of trees indicate the year when deposition occurred, and so may be useful as plant indicator to get spatial-temporal information of deposits. 4. The deposits volumes(F. V.) were dependent on the age distribution of deposits in length, average width and average height. And the average width and the average height of deposits were increasing with the age.

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Seismic AVO Analysis, AVO Modeling, AVO Inversion for understanding the gas-hydrate structure (가스 하이드레이트 부존층의 구조파악을 위한 탄성파 AVO 분석 AVO모델링, AVO역산)

  • Kim Gun-Duk;Chung Bu-Heung
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.643-646
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    • 2005
  • The gas hydrate exploration using seismic reflection data, the detection of BSR(Bottom Simulating Reflector) on the seismic section is the most important work flow because the BSR have been interpreted as being formed at the base of a gas hydrate zone. Usually, BSR has some dominant qualitative characteristics on seismic section i.e. Wavelet phase reversal compare to sea bottom signal, Parallel layer with sea bottom, Strong amplitude, Masking phenomenon above the BSR, Cross bedding with other geological layer. Even though a BSR can be selected on seismic section with these guidance, it is not enough to conform as being true BSR. Some other available methods for verifying the BSR with reliable analysis quantitatively i.e. Interval velocity analysis, AVO(Amplitude Variation with Offset)analysis etc. Usually, AVO analysis can be divided by three main parts. The first part is AVO analysis, the second is AVO modeling and the last is AVO inversion. AVO analysis is unique method for detecting the free gas zone on seismic section directly. Therefore it can be a kind of useful analysis method for discriminating true BSR, which might arise from an Possion ratio contrast between high velocity layer, partially hydrated sediment and low velocity layer, water saturated gas sediment. During the AVO interpretation, as the AVO response can be changed depend upon the water saturation ratio, it is confused to discriminate the AVO response of gas layer from dry layer. In that case, the AVO modeling is necessary to generate synthetic seismogram comparing with real data. It can be available to make conclusions from correspondence or lack of correspondence between the two seismograms. AVO inversion process is the method for driving a geological model by iterative operation that the result ing synthetic seismogram matches to real data seismogram wi thin some tolerance level. AVO inversion is a topic of current research and for now there is no general consensus on how the process should be done or even whether is valid for standard seismic data. Unfortunately, there are no well log data acquired from gas hydrate exploration area in Korea. Instead of that data, well log data and seismic data acquired from gas sand area located nearby the gas hydrate exploration area is used to AVO analysis, As the results of AVO modeling, type III AVO anomaly confirmed on the gas sand layer. The Castagna's equation constant value for estimating the S-wave velocity are evaluated as A=0.86190, B=-3845.14431 respectively and water saturation ratio is $50\%$. To calculate the reflection coefficient of synthetic seismogram, the Zoeppritz equation is used. For AVO inversion process, the dataset provided by Hampson-Rushell CO. is used.

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Open Heart Surgery for Six Cases of the Conegnital Heart Disease (선천성(先天性) 심장병(心臟病)의 개심술(開心術) -6례(例) 수술경험(手術經驗) -)

  • Lee, Sung Haing;Lee, Sung Koo;Han, Sung Sae;Lee, Kihl Rho;Kim, Song Myung;Lee, Kwang Sook;Lee, Chong Kook
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.220-238
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    • 1976
  • Six cases of congenital heart disease were operated on by means of cardiopulmonary bypass between December, 1975 and April, 1976. Two cases of ventricular septal defects (VSD), two cases of VSD, associated with ruptured aneurysm of sinus Valsalva, two cases of atrial septal defects (ASD) and one case of pulmonic stenosis with patent ductus arteriosus were operated. Sarns roller pumps and Bentley Temptrol oxygenators were used for extracorporeal circulation. Pump oxygenator was primed with Ringer's lactate solution, 5% dextrose in water, mannitol, and ACD blood. Flow rate ranged from 2.0 to $2.4L/M^2/min$. Bicarbonate was added to the oxygenator with estimated amount as 15 mEq/L/hr. Venous catheters were introduced into superior and inferior vena cava, and oxygenated blood was returned to the body through aortic cannula inserted into ascending aorta. Moderate hypothermia ($30^{\circ}C$) was induced by core cooling. Aorta was cross clamped for 15 minutes and released for 3 minutes, and repeated clamping when necessary. Atrial and ventricular septal efects were closed by direct sutures. Aneurysms of sinus Valsalva ruptured into the right ventricle were repaired through right ventriculotomy by d:rect closure with Dacron patch reinforcement. Cardiopulmonary bypass time varied from 66 to 209 minutes, and aorta cross clamping time ranged from 13 to 56 minutes. Postoperative bleeding was minimal except one case who needed for evacuation of substernal hematoma. Intra- and postoperative urinary output was satisfactory. Acid-base balance, partial pressure of $O_2$, electrolytes, and hematological changes during intra- and post-perfusion period remained at the acceptable ranges. No mortality was experienced.

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Effect of Additives on the Powder Characteristics of Peonja Dry Elixir (편자 고형엘릭실제의 분체 특성에 미치는 부형제의 영향)

  • Yong, Chul-Soon;Lee, Jong-Dal;Kim, Chong-Kook;Choi, Han-Gon
    • Journal of Pharmaceutical Investigation
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of additives on the powder characteristics of peonja dry elixir. Peonja dry elixirs were prepared with various amounts of dextrin using a spray-dryer, and their powder characteristics such as flow, cohesion and compressibility were evaluated as an angle of repose, cohesion index and compressibility index, respectively. Their powder characteristics were not significantly different from one another, indicating that the hydrophilic dextrin, a base of dry elixir hardly affected their powder characteristics. Peonja dry elixirs were prepared with 10% dextrin and various amounts of additives such as mannitol (hydrophilic excipient), sodium lauryl sulfate (surfactant), colloidal silica (hydrophobic excipient) and HPMC (polymer), respectively, and their angle of repose, cohesion index and compressibility index were measured. The powder characteristics of peonja dry elixirs prepared with mannitol were not significantly different from one another, indicating that the mannitol scarcely improved the powder characteristics of peonja dry elixirs. The angle of repose and cohesion index of peonja dry elixirs significantly decreased with increasing amount of sodium lauryl sulfate to 0.3% followed by no significant changes in them. The cohesion index of peonja dry elixir significantly decreased with increasing amount of colloidal silica. The angle of repose and cohesion index of peonja dry elixir significantly decreased with increasing amount of HPMC to 0.3% followed by an abrupt increase in them. However, the compressibility index of peonja dry elixir significantly increased with increasing amount of HPMC to 0.3% followed by an abrupt decrease in them. Our results suggested that a small amount of sodium lauryl sulfate, colloidal silica and HPMC improved markedly the powder characteristics of peonja dry elixirs due to forming stronger and less hygroscopic shell of peonja dry elixirs. Among the peonja dry elixirs studied, the peonja dry elixir prepared with 0.3% sodium lauryl sulfate and 0.3% HPMC had the lowest angle of repose of $27^{\circ}$ and cohesion index of 37.8%, and the highest compressibility index of 38.7%, respectively. Thus, sodium lauryl sulfate and HPMC appear to be promising additives for peonja dry elixir, if used in adequate amounts.

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Study on the Applications of prescriptions including Platycodi Radix as a main component in Dongeuibogam (동의보감(東醫寶鑑) 중(中) 길경(桔梗)이 주약(主藥)으로 배오(配伍)된 방제(方劑)의 활용(活用)에 대한 고찰(考察))

  • Lee, Tae-Hyung;Lee, Sung-Jun;Huh, Jin;Shin, Dong-Gean;Lee, Jae-Cheol;Shin, Yong-Seo;Yun, Young-Gab
    • Herbal Formula Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.23-42
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    • 2010
  • This report describes 90 prescriptions related to the use of Platycodi Radix main blended from Dongeuibogam. The following conclusions were reached through investigations on the prescriptions that use Platycodi Radix as a key component. Prescriptions that Platycodi Radix was taken as a monarch drug are utilized for 30 therapeutic purposes, for example, cough disease, throat disease, abscess and pus, and wind disease. In particular, 12.1% of prescriptions appear in the chapter of cough, and 9.9% of those appear in the chapter of throat, and each 8.8% of those appear in the chapter of abscess and of wind disease. Prescriptions that utilize Platycodi Radix as the main ingredient are used in the treatment of cough disease, throat disease and abscess, and they are also used for treating 74 different types of disease. The prescriptions are compounded with Platycodi Radix as a monarch drug are related to exogenous agents such as wind-cold pathogen, wind-heat pathogen, epidemic diseases, and endogenous agents such as seven emotions, and non-endo-exopathogenic factors like excessive labor, deficiency of Qi and blood, phlegm-mass, phlegm-fire, ect. The dosage of Platycodi Radix is 2pun(about 0.75g) to 1nyang(about 37.5g), however 1don (about 3.75g) has been taken the most for clinical application. We can find out that according to herbs or prescriptions blended with it self, Platycodi Radix makes a variety of functions to penetrate lung stagnancy and remove phlegm, relieve throat pain and get rid of pus, and regulate Qi flow. And Gamgiltang is the most useful base prescription which used the Platycodi Radix as the main component.