• Title/Summary/Keyword: Back Analysis Algorithm

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Study on Establishing Algal Bloom Forecasting Models Using the Artificial Neural Network (신경망 모형을 이용한 단기조류예측모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Mi Eun;Shin, Hyun Suk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.7
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    • pp.697-706
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    • 2013
  • In recent, Korea has faced on water quality management problems in reservoir and river because of increasing water temperature and rainfall frequency caused by climate change. This study is effectively to manage water quality for establishment of algal bloom forecasting models with artificial neural network. Daecheong reservoir located in Geum river has suitable environment for algal bloom because it has lots of contaminants that are flowed by rainfall. By using back propagation algorithm of artificial neural networks (ANNs), a model has been built to forecast the algal bloom over short-term (1, 3, and 7 days). In the model, input factors considered the hydrologic and water quality factors in Daecheong reservoir were analyzed by cross correlation method. Through carrying out the analysis, input factors were selected for algal bloom forecasting model. As a result of this research, the short term algal bloom forecasting models showed minor errors in the prediction of the 1 day and the 3 days. Therefore, the models will be very useful and promising to control the water quality in various rivers.

Process Optimization of the Contact Formation for High Efficiency Solar Cells Using Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms (신경망과 유전알고리즘을 이용한 고효율 태양전지 접촉형성 공정 최적화)

  • Jung, Se-Won;Lee, Sung-Joon;Hong, Sang-Jeen;Han, Seung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.10 no.11
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    • pp.2075-2082
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents modeling and optimization techniques for hish efficiency solar cell process on single-crystalline float zone (FZ) wafers. Among a sequence of multiple steps of fabrication, the followings are the most sensitive steps for the contact formation: 1) Emitter formation by diffusion; 2) Anti-reflection-coating (ARC) with silicon nitride using plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD); 3) Screen-printing for front and back metalization; and 4) Contact formation by firing. In order to increase the performance of solar cells in terms of efficiency, the contact formation process is modeled and optimized using neural networks and genetic algorithms, respectively. This paper utilizes the design of experiments (DOE) in contact formation to reduce process time and fabrication costs. The experiments were designed by using central composite design which consists of 24 factorial design augmented by 8 axial points with three center points. After contact formation process, the efficiency of the fabricated solar cell is modeled using neural networks. Established efficiency model is then used for the analysis of the process characteristics and process optimization for more efficient solar cell fabrication.

The hybrid of artificial neural networks and case-based reasoning for intelligent diagnosis system (인공 신경경망과 사례기반추론을 혼합한 지능형 진단 시스템)

  • Lee, Gil-Jae;Kim, Chang-Joo;Ahn, Byung-Ryul;Kim, Moon-Hyun
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.15B no.1
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2008
  • As the recent development of the IT services, there is a urgent need of effective diagnosis system to present appropriate solution for the complicated problems of breakdown control, a cause analysis of breakdown and others. So we propose an intelligent diagnosis system that integrates the case-based reasoning and the artificial neural network to improve the system performance and to achieve optimal diagnosis. The case-based reasoning is a reasoning method that resolves the problems presented in current time through the past cases (experience). And it enables to make efficient reasoning by means of less complicated knowledge acquisition process, especially in the domain where it is difficult to extract formal rules. However, reasoning by using the case-based reasoning alone in diagnosis problem domain causes a problem of suggesting multiple causes on a given symptom. Since the suggested multiple causes of given symptom has the same weight, the unnecessary causes are also examined as well. In order to resolve such problems, the back-propagation learning algorithm of the artificial neural network is used to train the pairs of the causes and associated symptoms and find out the cause with the highest weight for occurrence to make more clarified and reliable diagnosis.

Estimation of fruit number of apple tree based on YOLOv5 and regression model (YOLOv5 및 다항 회귀 모델을 활용한 사과나무의 착과량 예측 방법)

  • Hee-Jin Gwak;Yunju Jeong;Ik-Jo Chun;Cheol-Hee Lee
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.150-157
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    • 2024
  • In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for predicting the number of apples on an apple tree using a deep learning-based object detection model and a polynomial regression model. Measuring the number of apples on an apple tree can be used to predict apple yield and to assess losses for determining agricultural disaster insurance payouts. To measure apple fruit load, we photographed the front and back sides of apple trees. We manually labeled the apples in the captured images to construct a dataset, which was then used to train a one-stage object detection CNN model. However, when apples on an apple tree are obscured by leaves, branches, or other parts of the tree, they may not be captured in images. Consequently, it becomes difficult for image recognition-based deep learning models to detect or infer the presence of these apples. To address this issue, we propose a two-stage inference process. In the first stage, we utilize an image-based deep learning model to count the number of apples in photos taken from both sides of the apple tree. In the second stage, we conduct a polynomial regression analysis, using the total apple count from the deep learning model as the independent variable, and the actual number of apples manually counted during an on-site visit to the orchard as the dependent variable. The performance evaluation of the two-stage inference system proposed in this paper showed an average accuracy of 90.98% in counting the number of apples on each apple tree. Therefore, the proposed method can significantly reduce the time and cost associated with manually counting apples. Furthermore, this approach has the potential to be widely adopted as a new foundational technology for fruit load estimation in related fields using deep learning.

A Prediction of N-value Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 N치 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang Myung;Park, Hyoung June;Goo, Tae Hun;Kim, Hyung Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2020
  • Problems arising during pile design works for plant construction, civil and architecture work are mostly come from uncertainty of geotechnical characteristics. In particular, obtaining the N-value measured through the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the most important data. However, it is difficult to obtain N-value by drilling investigation throughout the all target area. There are many constraints such as licensing, time, cost, equipment access and residential complaints etc. it is impossible to obtain geotechnical characteristics through drilling investigation within a short bidding period in overseas. The geotechnical characteristics at non-drilling investigation points are usually determined by the engineer's empirical judgment, which can leads to errors in pile design and quantity calculation causing construction delay and cost increase. It would be possible to overcome this problem if N-value could be predicted at the non-drilling investigation points using limited minimum drilling investigation data. This study was conducted to predicted the N-value using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which one of the Artificial intelligence (AI) method. An Artificial Neural Network treats a limited amount of geotechnical characteristics as a biological logic process, providing more reliable results for input variables. The purpose of this study is to predict N-value at the non-drilling investigation points through patterns which is studied by multi-layer perceptron and error back-propagation algorithms using the minimum geotechnical data. It has been reviewed the reliability of the values that predicted by AI method compared to the measured values, and we were able to confirm the high reliability as a result. To solving geotechnical uncertainty, we will perform sensitivity analysis of input variables to increase learning effect in next steps and it may need some technical update of program. We hope that our study will be helpful to design works in the future.

Investigation of Conserved Genes in Microorganism (미생물의 보존적 유전자 탐색)

  • Lee Dong-Geun;Lee Jae-Hwa;Lee Sang-Hyeon;Ha Bae-Jin;Shim Doo-Hee;Park Eun-Kyung;Kim Jin-Wook;Li Hua-Yue;Nam Chun-Suk;Kim Nam Young;Lee Eo-Jin;Back Jin-Wook;Ha Jong-Myung
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.15 no.2 s.69
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    • pp.261-266
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    • 2005
  • To figure out conserved genes in 66 microbial species and measuring the degree of conservation, analyses based on COG (Clusters of Orthologous Groups of proteins) algorithm were applied. Sixty-six microbial genomes, including three eukaryotes, hold 63 conserved orthologs in common. The majority $(82.5\%)$ of the conserved genes was related to translation, meaning the importance of protein in living creatures. Ribosomal protein S12 (COG0048) and L14 (COG0093) were more conserved genes than others from the distance value analysis. Phylogenetically related microbes grouped in genome analysis by average and standard deviation of 63 conserved genes. The 63 conserved genes, found in this research, would be useful in basic research and applied ones such as antibiotic development.

A Phenology Modelling Using MODIS Time Series Data in South Korea (MODIS 시계열 자료(2001~2011) 및 Timesat 알고리즘에 기초한 남한 지역 식물계절 분석)

  • Kim, Nam-Shin;Cho, Yong-Chan;Oh, Seung-Hwan;Kwon, Hye-Jin;Kim, Gyung-Soon
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.186-193
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    • 2014
  • This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal trends of phenological characteristics in South Korea by using MODIS EVI. For the phenology analysis, we had applied double logistic function to MODIS time-series data. Our results showed that starting date of phenology seems to have a tendency along with latitudinal trends. Starting date of phenology of Jeju Island and Mt. Sobeak went back for 0.38, 0.174 days per year, respectively whereas, Mt. Jiri and Mt. Seolak went forward for 0.32 days, 0.239 days and 0.119 days, respectively. Our results exhibited the fluctuation of plant phonological season rather than the change of phonological timing and season. Starting date of plant phenology by spatial distribution revealed tendency that starting date of mountain area was late, and basin and south foot of mountain was fast. In urban ares such as Seoul metropolitan, Masan, Changwon, Milyang, Daegu and Jeju, the phonological starting date went forward quickly. Pheonoligcal attributes such as starting date and leaf fall in urban areas likely being affected from heat island effect and related warming. Our study expressed that local and regional monitoring on phonological events and changes in Korea would be possible through MODIS data.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.