• Title/Summary/Keyword: BLUP 추정량

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K-F기법으로 실업자 수의 소지역추정 - 경제활동인구조사를 중심으로 -

  • Yang, Yeong-Chun;Lee, Sang-Eun;Sin, Min-Ung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.305-309
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    • 2002
  • 소지역에서 직접(direct) 시계열추정을 할 수 있다면, 소지역들 추정에서 최적선형 불편예측량(BLUP)을 일반화 시킬 수 있다. 특히 조사에서 얻어지는 관측 값의 오차가 시간상으로 상관관계가 있다면 Kalman-Filter(K-F)기법이 사용 될 수 있다. 이 연구는 소지역의 실업자 수 추정에서 K-F기법으로 경제활동인구수를 이용하여 현 시점의 소지역 실업자 수를 예측함수(BLUP)를 통해 추정하였다. 그리고 단순 회귀분석 추정치와 비교하였다.

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Small Area Estimation of Unemplyoment Using Kalman Filter Method (KALMAN FILTER기법을 이용한 실업자 수의 소지역 추정)

  • 양영춘;이상은;신민웅
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2003
  • In small area estimation, Best Linear Unbaised Predictor(BLUP) can be directly implicated ,specially, in use of the time series estimation. If there are correlations between observations and error terms over the time, Kalman Filter method can be used. Therefore, using kalman Filtering technique small area estimation of total of unemployments are estimated by BLUP. And for the example of this study, Economic Active Population Survey data were used.

A Study on the Construction of Weights for Combined Rolling Samples (순환표본의 결합을 위한 가중치 산출에 대한 연구)

  • Song, Jong-Ho;Park, Jin-Woo;Byun, Jong-Seok;Park, Min-Gue
    • Survey Research
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.19-41
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    • 2010
  • Although it is possible to provide statistically reliable estimators of the entire population parameters based on each independent rolling sample, estimators of the small areas may not have the required statistical efficiency. Thus, in general, small area estimators are calculated based on the combined rolling sample after entire rolling sample survey is finished. In this study, we considered the construction of weights that is necessary in the analysis of the combined rolling sample. Unlike the past studies that provided the empirical results for the corresponding specific rolling sample survey, we considered linear models that depends only on design variables and rolling period and provided the corresponding Best Linear Unbiased Predictor(BLUP). Through a simulation study, we proposed the estimators for the population parameters that are robust to model failure and the BLUP under the assumed model. The results are applied to the 4th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

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A Composite Estimator for Cut-off Sampling using Cost Function (절사표본 설계에서 비용함수를 고려한 복합추정량)

  • Sim, Hyo-Seon;Shin, Key-Il
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2014
  • Cut-off sampling has been widely used for a highly skewed population like a business survey by discarding a part of the population, so called a take-nothing stratum. For a more accurate estimate of the population total, Hwang and Shin (2013) suggested a composite estimator of a take-nothing stratum total that combined the survey results of a take-nothing stratum and a take-some sub-stratum (a part of take-some stratum). In this paper we propose a new cut-off sampling scheme by considering a cost function and a composite estimator based on the proposed sampling scheme. Small simulation studies compared the performances of known composite estimators and the new composite estimator suggested in this study. We also use Briquette Consumption Survey data for real data analysis.

An Alternative Composite Estimator for the Take-Nothing Stratum of the Cut-Off Sampling (절사층 총합추정을 위한 복합추정량)

  • Hwang, Jong-Min;Shin, Key-Il
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2012
  • Cut-off sampling that discards a part of the population from the sampling frame, is a widely used method for a business survey. Usually, to the estimate of population total, an accurate estimate of the total of the take-nothing stratum is required. Many estimators have been developed to estimate the total of the take-nothing stratum. Recently Kim and Shin (2011) suggested a composite estimator and showed the superiority of that estimator. In this paper, we suggest an alternative composite estimator obtained by combining BLUP estimator and a ratio estimator obtained by the small samples from the take-nothing stratum. Small simulation studies are performed for a comparison of the estimators and we confirm that the new suggested estimator is superior.

Monte Carlo Simulations of Selection Responses for Improving High Meat Qualities Using Real Time Ultrasound in Korean Cattle (초음파측정 활용 고급육형 한우개량을 위한 선발반응 Monte Carlo 모의실험)

  • Lee, D. H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.343-354
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    • 2003
  • Simulation studies were carried out to investigate the responses of selection for three carcass traits (longissimus muscle area: EMA, fat thickness: BF, and marbling score: MS) based on either adjusted phenotypes (APH) or estimated breeding values (EBV) in multivariate animal model with different breeding schemes. Selection responses were estimated and compared on six different models with respect to breeding schemes using either carcass measurements or real time ultrasonic (RTU) scans generated by Monte Carlo computer simulation supporting closed breeding population. From the base population with 100 sires and 2000 dams, 20 sires and 1000 dams by each generation were selected by either APH or EBV for 10 generations. Relative economic weights were equal of three traits as EMA(1): BF(-1) : MS(1) for standardized either APH or EBV. For first two models which were similarly designed with current progeny-test program in Korean cattle, three carcass traits with records either only on male progenies (Model 1) or on male and female progenies (Model 2) were used for selecting breeding stocks. Subsequently, generation intervals on males were assumed as 6${\sim}$10 years in these two models. The other two models were designed with tools of selection by RTU rather than carcass measurements with genetic correlations of 0.81${\sim}$0.97 between RTU and corresponding carcass traits in addition to whether with records (Model 4) or without records (Model 3) on female. In these cases, generation intervals on males were assumed as 2${\sim}$4 years. The remaining last two models were designed as similar with Models 3 and 4 except genetic correlations of 0.63${\sim}$0.68 between RTU and corresponding carcass traits with records (Model 6) and without records (Model 5) on females. The results from 10 replicates on each model and selecting methods suggested that responses indirect selection for carcass traits in Model 4 were 1.66${\sim}$2.44 times efficient rather than those in Model 1. Otherwise, in Model 6 with assuming moderate genetic correlations, those efficiencies were 1.18${\sim}$2.08 times with comparing to responses in Model 1. However, selection response for marbling score was the smallest among three carcass traits because of small variation of measurements. From these results, this study suggested that indirect selection using RTU technology for improving high meat qualities in Korean cattle would be valuable with modifying measuring rules of marbling score forward to large variation or modifying relative economic weight for selection.

Estimation of the Accuracy of Genomic Breeding Value in Hanwoo (Korean Cattle) (한우의 유전체 육종가의 정확도 추정)

  • Lee, Seung Soo;Lee, Seung Hwan;Choi, Tae Jeong;Choy, Yun Ho;Cho, Kwang Hyun;Choi, You Lim;Cho, Yong Min;Kim, Nae Soo;Lee, Jung Jae
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to estimate the Genomic Estimated Breeding Value (GEBV) using Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) method in Hanwoo (Korean native cattle) population. The result is expected to adapt genomic selection onto the national Hanwoo evaluation system. Carcass weight (CW), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BT), and marbling score (MS) were investigated in 552 Hanwoo progeny-tested steers at Livestock Improvement Main Center. Animals were genotyped with Illumina BovineHD BeadChip (777K SNPs). For statistical analysis, Genetic Relationship Matrix (GRM) was formulated on the basis of genotypes and the accuracy of GEBV was estimated with 10-fold Cross-validation method. The accuracies estimated with cross-validation method were between 0.915~0.957. In 534 progeny-tested steers, the maximum difference of GEBV accuracy compared to conventional EBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were 9.56%, 5.78%, 5.78%, and 4.18% respectively. In 3,674 pedigree traced bulls, maximum increased difference of GEBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were increased as 13.54%, 6.50%, 6.50%, and 4.31% respectively. This showed that the implementation of genomic pre-selection for candidate calves to test on meat production traits could improve the genetic gain by increasing accuracy and reducing generation interval in Hanwoo genetic evaluation system to select proven bulls.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Growth and Egg Production Traits in Black Korean Native Chicken and Korean White Leghorn Populations (흑색한국재래닭, 한국화이트레그혼 집단의 산육 및 산란 형질 유전모수 추정)

  • Cha, Jaebeom;Kim, Kigon;Choo, Hyojun;Kwon, Il;Park, Byeongho
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.267-274
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to estimate genetic parameters for growth and egg production traits in Black Korean native chicken (L strain) and Korean White Leghorn (F, K strains) using a multi-traits animal model BLUP. Traits used for this study were body weight at 150 days (BW150) and 270 days (BW270), age at first egg (DAY1st), egg weight at first egg (EW1st) and 270 days (EW270), and number of eggs laid by 270 days (EP270), and included 68,688 pedigree and 123,905 performance records collected from 2001 to 2013. In L, F, K strains, heritability estimates of BW150 were high (0.48, 0.52 and 0.50, respectively); of BW270 were high (0.56, 0.57 and 0.56); of DAY1st were medium to high (0.45, 0.39 and 0.31); of EW1st were low (0.15, 0.16 and 0.15); of EW270 were high (0.58, 0.55 and 0.59) and of EP270 were moderate (0.22, 0.21 and 0.20). The genetic and phenotypic correlation of DAY1st with EP270 were highly negative (-0.73 to -0.63 and -0.48 to -0.42). The genetic and phenotypic correlation of EP270 with BW150 and BW270, respectively were low negative (-0.16 to 0.01 and -0.14 to -0.03) and low to moderate positive (-0.08 to 0.07 and -0.13 to 0.04). The genetic and phenotypic correlation of EW270 with BW150 and BW270, respectively were moderate to high positive (0.39 to 0.49 and 0.36 to 0.46) and (0.29 to 0.33 and 0.34 to 0.37). The study showed that there is a potential for genetic improvement of Korean Indigenous chicken through selection program.