• Title/Summary/Keyword: Asymmetric Effect

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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

An empirical study on the relationship between return, volatility and trading volume in the KTB futures market by the trader type (KTB국채선물시장의 투자자유형별 거래량과 수익률 및 변동성에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Tak
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2008
  • This paper investigate the volume-volatility and volume-return relationship in the Korean Treasury Bond futures market using daily price and volume data categorized by three trader type i.e. individual investor, institutional investor and foreign investor over the period of October 1999 through December 2005. Major results are summarized as follows: (i) The effect of volume on return was not different across the trader type. (ii) The effect of volume on volatility was not unidirectional across the type of investor. While unexpected sell of individual investor has positive effects on volatility, negative effects in the case of institutional investor. (iii) We cannot find the evidence of asymmetric response of volatility to shock in trading volume or net position. This result differs from that of Korean Stock Price Index 200 futures market which showed strong positive asymmetry. Finally, some limitations of this paper and direction for further research were suggested.

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The Effect of Self-Management Intervention for Reducing Depression and Anxiety in Osteoarthritis Patients : A Meta-analysis (골관절염 환자의 우울과 불안 감소를 위한 자가관리중재의 효과: 메타분석)

  • Lee, Chun-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.94-102
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    • 2020
  • This study conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of self-management intervention for reducing the depression and anxiety of osteoarthritis patients. The research sources were PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Ovid-MEDLINE and Korean databases from the Korean and foreign literature published until September 30, 2019. The R version 3.5.1 program was used to identify the effectiveness of self-management intervention. As a result, 11 studies from a total of 1,877 articles in the relevant literature were analyzed, and the total number of participants was 2,751. The results showed that the overall effect size for reducing depression and anxiety was -0.44 (95% CI: -0.66, -0.22) in osteoarthritis patients (p <.001). On the sub-analysis, depression was -0.37 (95% CI: -0.66, -0.08), and anxiety was -0.56 (95% CI: -0.92, -0.20). To explain the heterogeneity, the meta-ANOVA was the setting, duration, and provider of intervention. Analysis of the publication bias was performed by a Funnel plot, which was visually relatively symmetrical and was not asymmetric according to Egger's Regression test (bias=0.19, p=.928). The results of this study established clinical evidence by identifying the effects of self-management intervention for reducing the depression and anxiety of osteoarthritis patients.

A Test on the Volatility Feedback Hypothesis in the Emerging Stock Market (신흥주식시장에서의 변동성반응가설 검정)

  • Kim, Byoung-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.191-234
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    • 2009
  • This study examined on the volatility feedback hypothesis through the use of threshold GARCH-in-Mean (GJR-GARCH-M) model developed by Glosten, Jaganathan, and Runkle (1993) in the stock markets of 14 emerging countries during the period of January, 1996 to May, 2009. On this study, I found successful evidences which can support the volatility feedback hypothesis through the following three estimation procedures. First, I found relatively strong positive relationship between the expected market risk premiums and their conditional standard deviations from the GARCH-M model in the basis of daily return on each representative stock market index, which is appropriate to investors' risk-averse preferences. Second, I can also identify the significant asymmetric time-varying volatility originated from the investors' differentiated reactions toward the unexpected market shocks by applying the GJR-GARCH-M model and further find the lasting positive risk aversion coefficient estimators. Third, I derived the negative signs of the regression coefficient of unpredicted volatility on the stock market return by re-applying the GJR-GARCH-M model after I controlled the positive effect of predicted volatility through including the conditional standard deviations from the previous GARCH-M model estimation as an independent explanatory variable in the re-applied new GJR-GARCH-M model. With these consecutive results, the volatility feedback effect was successfully tested to be effective also in the various emerging stock markets, although the leverage hypothesis turned out to be insufficient to be applied to another source of explaining the negative relationship between the unexpected volatility and the ex-post stock market return in the emerging countries in general.

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The effect on balance and gait when applying Kinesio Taping to the lower extremities of hemiplegic patients (편마비 환자의 양쪽 하지 테이핑 적용이 균형 및 보행에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Hee;Bae, Hwa-Suk;Kim, Hye-Young;Park, Hyon-Sun;Park, Hye-Seon;Jeong, Byeong-Uk;Choi, Jin-Suk;Seo, Han-Keong;Park, Hye-Jin;Kim, Myung-Hoon;Kim, Sang-Yup;Jung, Dae-In;Kim, Chan-Kyu;Yang, Jin-Hong;Kim, Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Physical Therapy Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to understand the effect of balance and gait when simultaneous application of Kinesio Taping on the lower extremities is done to improve the pattern of hemiplegic patients asymmetric lower extremity. Methods: This study was performed with 7 patients who have hemiplegia symptoms due to stoke. The taping on the paralyzed side was done on tibialis anterior, gluteus medius, gluteus maximus and psoas major and the taping on the unparalyzed side was done on the calf muscle and quadriceps. Berg Balance Scale(BBS) and Time Up and Go Test(TUG) was used to assessment the balance and gait of the patient after the kinesio taping was done on the lower extremities. The results of the test was analyzed by Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test on SPSS(Ver. 10.1). Results: When the taping was done on the paralyzed side, there was a significant improvement of balance and gait in BBS and TUG. When the taping was done on the lower extremities, it showed significant improvement of balance and gait, compared to when the taping was only done on the paralyzed side, according to BBS and TUG. Conclusion: The result of this study shows that the simultaneous taping of the lower extremities of the hemiplegic patients improves balance and gait by improving the pattern of patients lower extremities.

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ESR-Spin Trapping Detection of Radical Center Formed on the Reaction of Metmyoglobin with Hydrogen Peroxide

  • Jeong, Sang-Hyeon;Hong, Sun-Joo
    • BMB Reports
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.293-300
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    • 1995
  • The radical centers detected in the reaction of metmyoglobin (MetMb) with hydrogen peroxide ($H_2O_2$) have been studied by using a spin trapping technique. A broad 5-line asymmetric electron spin resonance (ESR) spectrum, with $2A_{max}=4.07\;mT$ and $2A_{min}=2.97\;mT$, obtained after incubation of MetMb with $H_2O_2$ in the presence of a spin trap, 5,5-dimethyl pyrroline-N-oxide (DMPO) was gradually weakened with time and disappeared completely by 6 min after addition of guanidine-HCl (14 M). When a higher concentration (6 M) of the agent was added, the signal disappeared within 40 see and the DMPO/OH signal appeared immediately. Then, a new 8-line signal with similar intensities grew gradually and was fixed by 45 min, coexisting with the DMPO/OH signal. This new signal was found to be composite, consisting of two different radical species. One of the 6-line signals, with $a_N$ 1.49 mT and $a_H$ 0.988 mT, was assigned to the DMPO/phenoxyl radical adduct. The second 6-line signal with $a_N$ 1.55 mT and $a_H$ 2.22 mT was assigned to carbon-centered radical adduct. When 3,3,5,5-tetramethylpyrrolin-N-oxide (TMPO), was employed in the place of DMPO, another broad asymmetric 5-line signal was detected with $2A_{max}=3.99\;mT$ and $2A_{min}=3.04\;mT$, which is virtually identical to that obtained from the DMPO system The shape of the spectrum of the TMPO adduct changed drastically, with lapse of time resulting in a broad singlet after 40 min. The broad singlet was assigned to the porphyrin radical adduct. Incubation of globin with Fenton reagent in the presence of DMPO initially gave a DMPO/OH signal. Then, a new 12-line signal began to grow after one minute and fixed after 15 min. coexisting with the DMPO/OH signal, This 12-line signal was assigned to DMPO/phenoxyl with $a_N$ 1.47 mT, $a_{{\beta}H}$ 0.99 mT and $a_{{\gamma}H}$ 0.13 mT. A minor concentration of carbon-centered radical adduct was also detected. This radical composition is identical to that of guanidine HCl treated MetMb/DMPO/$H_2O_2$ system, indicating that the radical producing conditions are somehow common in both systems. Heme iron can be released by excess $H_2O_2$ in the MetMb/$H_2O_2$ system, providing for Fenton reagent. When MetMb was pretreated with tyrosine blocking agent, $KI_3$ the broad 5.line MetMb-derived signal was not detected in the MetMb/DMPO/$H_2O_2$ system, whereas no such effect was detected on such system of Hb in which the radical center was assigned to cysteine residue not tyrosine, indicating that tyrosine residue is a main radical center produced in the MetMb/$H_2O_2$ system Thus, the present data strongly support the previous indication that the apomyoglobin-derived radical center formed in the reaction of MetMb with $H_2O_2$ is a tyrosine residue.

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Economic Rationale of Compensating Balance Requirements and Its Impact on Money Supply (「꺾기」의 경제학(經濟學)과 통화량(通貨量) 효과분석(效果分析))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.89-119
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    • 1992
  • This paper purports to analyze the economic rationale of compensating balance requirements and its impact on money supply. This practice has recently been severely criticized for artificially increasing the money supply and, therefore, limiting the nation's aggregate lending policy under the tight constraint of the given money supply target. A review of the existing literature implies that compensating balance requirements is a banking practice which leads to corrections in the distortion of financial resource allocation due to the imperfection of financial market stemming from asymmetric information and/or financial regulations on deposit and lending rates. Therefore, the economic rationale of this practice is deemed to improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation. On the other hand, the macroeconomic impact of compensating balance requirements on the money supply depends on the impact on the money multiplier, which in turn depends on the desired ratio of deposit that people wish to maintain on the money borrowed from the banking system, and on the desired reserve ratio that the banking system would like to hold for deposit withdrawal. If the compensating balance requirements could increase the desired ratio of deposit to borrowing (bank lending), it will increase the available amount of total reserve within the banking system and, in turn, the money multiplier. However, this channel has not been fully analyzed in the literature, and the direction of the effect is ambiguous. If the practice could reduce the turn-over rate of deposit and, thereby, reduce the desired reserve ratio of the banking system, then it will also increase the money multiplier. While this channel operates unambiguously toward increasing the money multiplier, this effect will be limited by the extent that the banking system holds the excess reserve over the required reserve because the excess reserve will set the maximum amount for the desired reserve to fall. This paper tries to determine the effect on the money supply by empirically estimating the multiplier and the desired ratio of deposit to lending equations as functions of the ratio of compensating balance to the related lending, which is not observable and is estimated for the regression purpose. The results suggest that the effect of compensating balance requirements on the money supply in Korea does not exist or is very tenuous even if it could operate. Therefore, this paper concludes that the well publicized policy of cross cancelling the compensating balance and the related lending will not be effective at controlling the money supply and increasing the amount of loans without expanding the money supply.

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The Effects of Product Line Rivalry: Focusing on the Issue of Fighting Brands (경쟁산품선적영향(竞争产品线的影响): 관주전두품패(关注战斗品牌))

  • Koh, Dong-Hee
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.24-31
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    • 2009
  • Firms produce various products that differ by function, design, color, etc. Product proliferation occurs for three different reasons. When there exist economies of scope, the unit cost for a product is lower when it is produced in conjunction with another product than when it is produced separately. Second, consumers are heterogeneous in the sense that they have different tastes, preferences, or price elasticities. A firm can earn more profit by segmenting consumers into different groups with similar characteristics. For example, product proliferation helps a firm increase profits by satisfying various consumer needs more precisely. The third reason for product proliferation is based on strategy. Producing a number of products can not only deter entry by providing few niches, but can also cause a firm to react efficiently to a low-price entry. By producing various products, a firm can reduce niches so that potential entrants have less incentive to enter. Moreover, a firm can produce new products in response to entry, which is called fighting brands. That is, when an entrant tries to attract consumers with a low price, an incumbent introduces a new lower-quality product while maintaining the price of the existing product. The drawback of product proliferation, however, is cannibalization. Some consumers who would have bought a high-price product switch to a low-price product. Moreover, it is possible that proliferation can decrease profits when a new product is less differentiated from a rival’s than is the existing product because of more severe competition. Many studies have analyzed the effect of product line rivalry in the areas of economics and marketing. They show how a monopolist can solve the problem of cannibalization by adjusting quality in a market where consumers differ in their preferences for quality. They find that a consumer who prefers high-quality products will obtain his or her most preferred quality, but a consumer who has not such preference will obtain less than his or her preferred quality to reduce cannibalization. This study analyzed the effects of product line rivalry in a duopoly market with two types of consumers differentiated by quality preference. I assume that the two firms are asymmetric in the sense that an incumbent can produce both high- and low-quality products, while an entrant can produce only a low-quality product. The effects of product proliferation can be explained by comparing the market outcomes when an incumbent produces both products to those when it produces only one product. Compared to the case in which an incumbent produces only a high-quality product, the price of a low-quality product tends to decrease in a consumer segment that prefers low-quality products because of more severe competition. Prices, however, tend to increase in a segment with high preferences because of less severe competition. It is known that when firms compete over prices, it is optimal for a firm to increase its price when its rival increases its price, which is called a strategic complement. Since prices are strategic complements, we have two opposing effects. It turns out that the price of a high-quality product increases because the positive effect of reduced competition outweighs the negative effect of strategic complements. This implies that an incumbent needs to increase the price of a high-quality product when it is also introducing a low-quality product. However, the change in price of the entrant’s low-quality product is ambiguous. Second, compared to the case in which an incumbent produces only a low-quality product, prices tend to increase in a consumer segment with low preferences but decrease in a segment with high preferences. The prices of low-quality products decrease because the negative effect outweighs the positive effect. Moreover, when an incumbent produces both kinds of product, the price of an incumbent‘s low-quality product is higher, even though the quality of both firms’ low-quality products is the same. The reason for this is that the incumbent has less incentive to reduce the price of a low-quality product because of the negative impact on the price of its high-quality product. In fact, the effects of product line rivalry on profits depend not only on changes in price, but also on sales and cannibalization. If the difference in marginal cost is moderate compared to the difference in product quality, the positive effect of product proliferation outweighs the negative effect, thereby increasing the profit. Furthermore, if the cost difference is very large (small), an incumbent is better off producing only a low (high) quality product. Moreover, this study also analyzed the effect of product line rivalry when a firm can determine product characteristics by focusing on the issue of fighting brands. Recently, Korean air and Asiana airlines have established budget airlines called Jin air and Air Busan, respectively, to confront the launching of budget airlines such as Hansung airline and Jeju air, among others. In addition, as more online bookstores have entered the market, a leading off-line bookstore Kyobo began its own online bookstore. Through fighting brands, an incumbent with a high-quality product can increase profits by producing an additional low-quality product when its low-quality product is more differentiated from that of the entrant than is its high-quality product.

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Experimental Study on Two-Seam Cold Formed Square CFT Column to Beam Connections with Asymmetric Diaphragms (상하 이형 다이아프램으로 보강된 2심 냉간성형 각형 CFT 기둥-보 접합부의 실험적 연구)

  • Oh, Heon Keun;Kim, Sun Hee;Choi, Sung Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2013
  • The concrete-filled tube column has the excellent structural performance. But it is difficult to connect with column and beam because of closed section. It suggests that pipe should be produced by welding two sides together where two shapes are joined after a channel is pre-welded onto the three sides in order to form an internal diaphragm. The upper diaphragm of the connection used the horizontal plate and the lower diaphragm used the Vertical plate. This research performed 6 monotonic tension experiments describing the connection upside and downside in order to evaluate the structural capability of the offered connection. And the cyclic loading experiment was performed about 2 T-Type column to beam connections. As to the experimental result edge cutting geometry, there was no big effect. An increase in the number of holes of the plate ultimate strength was increased by 5% and The thickness of the plate increases, the maximum strength was increased by 4%. T-Type connections until it reaches the plastic moment showed a stable behavior.

Effect of Stimulus Waveform of Biphasic Current Pulse on Retinal Ganglion Cell Responses in Retinal Degeneration (rd1) mice

  • Ahn, Kun No;Ahn, Jeong Yeol;Kim, Jae-Hyung;Cho, Kyoungrok;Koo, Kyo-In;Senok, Solomon S.;Goo, Yong Sook
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2015
  • A retinal prosthesis is being developed for the restoration of vision in patients with retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Determining optimal electrical stimulation parameters for the prosthesis is one of the most important elements for the development of a viable retinal prosthesis. Here, we investigated the effects of different charge-balanced biphasic pulses with regard to their effectiveness in evoking retinal ganglion cell (RGC) responses. Retinal degeneration (rd1) mice were used (n=17). From the ex-vivo retinal preparation, retinal patches were placed ganglion cell layer down onto an $8{\times}8$ multielectrode array (MEA) and RGC responses were recorded while applying electrical stimuli. For asymmetric pulses, 1st phase of the pulse is the same with symmetric pulse but the amplitude of 2nd phase of the pulse is less than $10{\mu}A$ and charge balanced condition is satisfied by lengthening the duration of the pulse. For intensities (or duration) modulation, duration (or amplitude) of the pulse was fixed to $500{\mu}s$($30{\mu}A$), changing the intensities (or duration) from 2 to $60{\mu}A$(60 to $1000{\mu}s$). RGCs were classified as response-positive when PSTH showed multiple (3~4) peaks within 400 ms post stimulus and the number of spikes was at least 30% more than that for the immediate pre-stimulus 400 ms period. RGC responses were well modulated both with anodic and cathodic phase-1st biphasic pulses. Cathodic phase-1st pulses produced significantly better modulation of RGC activity than anodic phase-1st pulses regardless of symmetry of the pulse.