• International Journal of Contents
• /
• v.11 no.1
• /
• pp.7-14
• /
• 2015

In this paper, we derive the outage probability for M-ary phase shifting keying (MPSK) and M-ary quadrature amplitude modulation (MQAM) burst transmission (BT) of adaptive decode-and-forward (ADF) cooperative relay systems over quasi-static Rayleigh fading channels. Within a burst, there are pilot symbols and data symbols. Pilot symbols are used for channel estimation schemes and each relay node's transmission mode selection schemes. At first, we focus on ADF relay systems in which the probability density function (PDF) is derived on the basis of error events at relay nodes corresponding to channel estimation errors. Next, the average outage probability is derived as an approximate expression for an arbitrary link signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for different modulation orders. Its accuracy is demonstrated by comparison with simulation results. Further, it is confirmed that BT-ADF relay systems with pilot symbol based channel estimation schemes enables to select correctly decoded relay nodes without additional signaling between relay nodes and the destination node, and it is verified that the ideal performance is achieved with small SNR loss.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.18 no.9
• /
• pp.31-43
• /
• 2020

Purpose: This study examined a comprehensive model for assessing the success probability of electric vehicle (EV) commercialization in the Korean market. The study identified three risks associated with successful commercialization which were technology, social, policy, environmental, and consumer risk. Research design, methodology: The assessment of the riskiness was represented by a Bayes belief network, where the probability of success at each stage is conditioned on the outcome of the preceding stage. Probability of success in each stage is either dependent on input (i.e., investment) or external factors (i.e., air quality). Initial input stages were defined as the levels of investment in product R&D, battery technology, production facilities and battery charging facilities. Results: Reasonable levels of investment were obtained by expert opinion from industry experts. Also, a survey was carried out with 78 experts consisting of automaker engineers, managers working at EV parts manufacturers, and automobile industry researchers in government think tanks to obtain the conditional probability distributions. Conclusion: The output of the model was the likelihood of success - expressed as the probability of market acceptance - that depended on the various input values. A model is a useful tool for understanding the EV industry as a whole and explaining the likely ramifications of different investment levels.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
• /
• v.26 no.5
• /
• pp.333-354
• /
• 2008

This study aimed to investigate the role of domain-specific causal mechanism information and domain-general conditional probability in young children's causal reasoning on psychology and biology. Participants were 121 3-year-olds and 121 4-year-olds recruited from seven childcare centers in Seoul, Kyonggi Province, and Busan. After participants watched moving pictures on psychological and biological phenomena, they were asked to choose appropriate cause and justify their choices. Results of this study were as follows: First, young children made different inferences according to domain-specific causal mechanisms. Second, the developmental level of causal mechanisms has a gap between psychology and biology, and biological knowledge was proved to be separate from psychological knowledge during the preschool period. Third, young children's causal reasoning was different depending on the interaction effect of domain-specific mechanisms and domain-general conditional probability: children could make more inferences based on domain-specific causal mechanisms if conditional probability between domain-appropriate cause and effect was evident. To conclude, it can be inferred that the role of domain-specific causal mechanisms and domain-general conditional probability is not competitive but complementary in young children's causal reasoning.

• Journal of Pharmacopuncture
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.67-76
• /
• 2023

Objectives: Medical services are closely related to individual health and welfare, and health status in childhood or adolescence is widely recognized to be related to many socioeconomic outcomes. Therefore, providing appropriate medical services in childhood and adolescence is important. We aimed to investigate the determinants of traditional Korean medical services (TKMS) usage by children aged < 19 years. The focus was on the role of their parents' experiences with TKMS in determining TKMS use by children. Methods: Using a representative sample in South Korea, we conducted a regression analysis to assess how parents' experience with TKMS affects the probability of their children using TKMS. Results: We found parents' experience with TKMS to have a significantly positive effect on the probability of TKMS use by children and parents' biological information, such as age and sex, to affect the probability of TKMS use. Specifically, parents' experiences with TKMS generally increased the probability of children using TKMS by approximately 20%. Conclusion: This study's results suggest that considering parents' opinions and providing them the opportunity to participate in programs that enhance young children's use of TKMS may be effective.

• Journal of Wind Energy
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.37-43
• /
• 2023

In this study, synthetic time series wind data was generated numerically using a second-order Markov chain. One year of wind data in 2020 measured by the AWS on Wido Island was used to investigate the statistics for measured wind data. Both the transition probability matrix and the cumulative transition probability matrix for annual hourly mean wind speed were obtained through statistical analysis. Probability density distribution along the wind speed and autocorrelation according to time were compared with the first- and the second-order Markov chains with various lengths of time series wind data. Probability density distributions for measured wind data and synthetic wind data using the first- and the second-order Markov chains were also compared to each other. For the case of the second-order Markov chain, some improvement of the autocorrelation was verified. It turns out that the autocorrelation converges to zero according to increasing the wind speed when the data size is sufficiently large. The generation of artificial wind data is expected to be useful as input data for virtual digital twin wind turbines.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.42 no.10
• /
• pp.857-866
• /
• 2009

In this study, basic data is consisted annual maximum rainfall at 56 stations that has the rainfall records more than 30years in Korea. The 14 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the basic data. The method of moments, method of maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments method are used to estimate the parameters. And 4-tests (chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer von Mises test, probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test) are used to determine the goodness of fit of probability distributions. This study emphasizes the necessity for considering the variability of the estimate of T-year event in hydrologic frequency analysis and proposes a framework for evaluating probability distribution models. The variability (or estimation error) of T-year event is used as a criterion for model evaluation as well as three goodness of fit criteria (SLSC, MLL, and AIC) in the framework. The Jackknife method plays a important role in estimating the variability. For the annual maxima of rainfall at 56 stations, the Gumble distribution is regarded as the best one among probability distribution models with two or three parameters.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.403-415
• /
• 1999

This study is to derive the rainfall intensity formula based on the representative probability distribution in Korea. The 11 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the annual maximum rainfall. The parameters of each probability distribution are estimated by method of moments, maximum likelihood method and method of probability weighted moments. Four tests such as $x^2$-test, Kolmogorv-Smirnov test, difference test and modified difference test are used to determine the goodness of fit of the distributions. The homogeneous tests (Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance of nonparametric test) are applied to find the stations with rainfall homogeneity. The results of homogeneous tests show that there is no representative appropriate distribution for the whole duration in Korea. The whole region could be divided into five zones for 12-durations. The representative probability distribution of each divided zone for 12-durations was determined. The GEV distribution for I,II,V zones and the 3-parameter Weibull distribution for III,IV zones were determined as the representative probability distribution. The rainfall were obtained from representative probability distribution for the selected return periods. Rainfall intensity formula was determined by linearization technique for the rainfall.

• Korean Journal of Logic
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.59-84
• /
• 2005

Adams' Thesis, or the so-called equation Pr$(A{\rightarrow}C)$ = Pr(C|A) seems to express a correct relationship between the probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. But D. K. Lewis has proved the remarkable fact that probabilities of conditionals are not conditional probabilities. In this paper 1 present a version of Lewis' triviality results and give an explanation why probabilities of conditionals are not conditional probabilities. A conditional probability of C given A has a peculiar properly in that its probability is insulated from not-A facts: the only thing relevant is the proportion of ways in which A is true which are also ways for C to be true. This peculiarity of conditional probability seems to put the great obstacle in the way of attempting to find a proposition such that its probability of being true systematically coincides with conditional probability of something else.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.48 no.1
• /
• pp.37-44
• /
• 2015

A Bayesian nonstationary probability rainfall estimation model using the Grid method is developed. A hierarchical Bayesian framework is consisted with prior and hyper-prior distributions associated with parameters of the Gumbel distribution which is selected for rainfall extreme data. In this study, the Grid method is adopted instead of the Matropolis Hastings algorithm for random number generation since it has advantage that it can provide a thorough sampling of parameter space. This method is good for situations where the best-fit parameter values are not easily inferred a priori, and where there is a high probability of false minima. The developed model was applied to estimated target year probability rainfall using hourly rainfall data of Seoul station from 1973 to 2012. Results demonstrated that the target year estimate using nonstationary assumption is about 5~8% larger than the estimate using stationary assumption.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.249-259
• /
• 2020

Design criteria for limit state design of underground structures have already been published overseas, and research has been conducted to revise the design method in Korea. In order to estimate the probability of failure under seismic load, the probability variable should be considered in the reliability analysis. In this study, the failure probability of the existing shield tunnel segment lining design was calculated by applying the coefficient of variation (COV) for the earth pressure and the seismic load effect in consideration of the statistical characteristics of the domestic ground properties. Based on the results of calculating the reliability index (β) from the calculated probability of failure and analyzing the reliability index according to the change in the load factor and the results of domestic and foreign research, the target reliability index (β_T) during earthquakes of shield tunnel segment lining is analyzed to be "2.3", it was proposed as the target reliability index for the design of the limit state under seismic load.