• 제목/요약/키워드: Asset Pricing Models

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The Predictive Power of Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from Pakistani Banks

  • SALIM, Muhammad;HASHMI, Muhammad Arsalan;ABDULLAH, A.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권11호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • This paper compares the performance of Fama-French three-factor and five-factor models using a dataset of 20 Pakistani commercial banks for the period 2011 to 2020. We focus on an emerging economy as the findings from earlier studies on developed countries cannot be generalized in emerging markets. For empirical analysis, twelve portfolios were developed based on size, market capitalization, investment strategy, and growth. Subsequently, we constructed five Fama-French factors namely, RM, SMB, HML, RMW, and CMA. The OLS regression technique with robust standard errors was applied to compare the predictive power of both the Fama-French models. Further, we also compared the mean-variance efficiency of the Fama-French models through the GRS test. Our empirical analysis provides three unique and interesting findings. First, both asset pricing models have similar predictive power to explain the expected portfolio returns in most cases. Second, our results from the GRS test suggest that there is no noticeable difference in the mean-variance efficiency of one asset pricing model over the other. Third, we find that all factors of both Fama-French models are statistically significant and are important for explaining the volatility of expected commercial bank returns in the context of Pakistan.

가계대출을 조건변수로 사용하는 소비 준거 자본자산 가격결정모형 (Can Bank Credit for Household be a Conditional Variable for Consumption CAPM?)

  • 권지호
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.199-215
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This article tries to test if the conditional consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) with bank credit for household as a conditional variable can explain the cross-sectional variation of stock returns in Korea. The performance of conditional CCAPM is compared to that of multifactor asset pricing models based on Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Design/methodology/approach - This paper extends the simple CCAPM to the conditional version of CCAPM by using bank credit for household as conditioning information. By employing KOSPI and KOSDAQ stocks as test assets from the second quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2018, this paper estimates risk premiums of conditional CCAPM and a variety of multifactor linear models such as Fama-French three and five-factor models. The significance of risk factors and the adjusted coefficient of determination are the basis for the comparison in models' performances. Findings - First, the paper finds that conditional CCAPM with bank credit performs as well as the multifactor linear models from Arbitrage Pricing theory on 25 test assets sorted by size and book-to-market. When using long-term consumption growth, the conditional CCAPM explains the cross-sectional variation of stock returns far better than multifactor models. Not only that, although the performances of multifactor models decrease on 75 test assets, conditional CCAPM's performance is well maintained. Research implications or Originality - This paper proposes bank credit for household as a conditional variable for CCAPM. This enables CCAPM, one of the most famous economic asset pricing models, to conform with the empirical data. In light of this, we can now explain the cross-sectional variation of stock returns from an economic perspective: Asset's riskiness is determined by its correlation with consumption growth conditional on bank credit for household.

자산가격 결정모형을 이용한 우리나라 주택가격 분석 (An Analysis of Korean House Prices Movements with Asset Pricing Models)

  • 이준희;송준혁
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.113-136
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    • 2007
  • 우리나라 주택가격은 2001년 이후 빠르게 상승하는 모습을 보이고 있어 주택가격의 급등에 대한 우려가 높다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 주택가격을 주택시장 수급의 장기균형모형, 현재가치모형 및 일반 균형자산 가격모형 등의 이론적 자산가격모형을 이용하여 분석하고 이에 따르는 시사점을 모색하였다. 분석결과 주택가격이 경제의 기초적인 여건을 반영한 균형가격보다 전반적으로 높게 나타나 주택가격의 안정화를 위한 노력이 필요한 것으로 판단된다.

MULTI-TYPE FINANCIAL ASSET MODELS FOR PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

  • Oh, Jae-Pill
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.211-224
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    • 2010
  • We define some asset models which are useful for portfolio construction in various terms of time. Our asset models are geometric jump-diffusions defined by the solutions of stochastic differential equations which are decomposed by various terms of time basically. We also can study pricing and hedging strategy of options in our models roughly.

An Empirical Testing of a House Pricing Model in the Indian Market

  • HODA, Najmul;JAFRI, Syed Ashraf;AHMAD, Naim;HUSSAIN, Syed Mannawar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권8호
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2020
  • The main aim of the study is to test a house pricing model by combining hedonic and asset-based pricing models. An understanding of the relationship between house pricing and its return (the rental income) helps to establish houses as a significant asset class. The model tested the relationship between house pricing (dependent variable) and the house attributes (independent variables) derived from Freeman's framework of housing attributes. This study uses a large data-set of 1,899 sample of new, high-end houses purchased between 2016 and 2019 collected from the national capital region of India (Delhi-NCR). The algorithm was built in R-Script, and stepwise multiple linear regression was used to analyze the model. The analysis of the model proves that the three significant variables, namely, carpet area, pay-off, and annual maintenance charges explain the price function. Further, the model is statistically fit. The major contribution of the study is to understand the key factors and their influence on the house pricing. The model will be helpful in risk assessment in the housing investment and enhance the chances of investment. Policy-makers can use information about the underlying valuation drivers of the house prices to stabilize the market and also in framing the tax policies.

실물옵션 가치평가모형을 이용한 국도건설사업의 경제적 가치 평가 (Economic Evaluation of National Highway Construction Projects using Real Option Pricing Models)

  • 정성윤;김지표
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This study evaluates the economic value of national highway construction projects using Real Option Pricing Models. METHODS : We identified the option premium for uncertainties associated with flexibilities according to the future's change in national highway construction projects. In order to evaluate value of future's underlying asset, we calculated the volatility of the unit price per year for benefit estimation such as VOTS, VOCS, VICS, VOPCS and VONCS that the "Transportation Facility Investment Evaluation Guidelines" presented. RESULTS : We evaluated the option premium of underlying asset through a case study of the actual national highway construction projects using ROPM. And in order to predict the changes in the option value of the future's underlying asset, we evaluated the changes of option premium for future's uncertainties by the defer of the start of construction work, the contract of project scale, and the abandon of project during pre-land compensation stages that were occurred frequently in the highway construction projects. Finally we analyzed the sensitivity of the underlying asset using volatility, risk free rate and expiration date of option. CONCLUSIONS : We concluded that a highway construction project has economic value even though static NPV had a negative(-) value because of the sum of the existing static NPV and the option premium for the future's uncertainties associated with flexibilities.

주택 자본자산가격결정모형(Capital Asset Pricing Model)을 활용한 위험과 수익 분석: 서울 강남 3개구 아파트시장의 경우 (A Study on Risks and Returns Using A Housing Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): the Case of Three Gangnam Districts Apartment Market in Seoul)

  • 이종아;정준호
    • 한국경제지리학회지
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.234-252
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    • 2010
  • 본 논문은 서울 강남 3개구(강남구, 서초구, 송파구)의 아파트시장을 재건축대상과 재건축대상외(外)아파트로 구분하고 자본자산가격결정모형(Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM)을 활용하여 아파트시장의 위험과 수익 간의 관계를 분석하고자 한다. 이를 통해 서울 강남 재건축 아파트 자산의 의사금융자산(quasi-financial asset)화 경향허의 한 단면을 보여 주고자 한다. 단일 CAPM 모형 결과는 위험과 수익 간의 관계가 정(+)이라는 것을 보여주고 있다. 또한 시장요인 이외에 SMB(small minus big), 모멘텀(momentum), 비체계적 위험 변수들을 반영한 다변량 CAPM 모형 결과에 따르면, 시장요인과 SMB는 일반아파트와 재건축대상 아파트시장 모두에서 수익률에 대해 정(+)의 효과를 미치고 있다. 비체계적 위험변수는 재건축대상 아파트시장에서 통계적으로 유의하지만, 모멘텀 변수는 회귀모형에 따라 상이한 결과가 나타났다. 평형규모와 가격변동성 또는 베타값을 이용한 포트폴리오 분석도 위험-수익 간의 강한 정(+)의 선형 관계와 SMB 효과가 나타나고 있음을 확인하여 주고 있다. 이처럼 서울 강남 3개구 아파트시장, 특히 재건축 예정 아파트시장에는 주택자산의 투자재적 성격이 더욱더 부각되고 있다.

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Jensen's Alpha Estimation Models in Capital Asset Pricing Model

  • Phuoc, Le Tan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2018
  • This research examined the alternatives of Jensen's alpha (α) estimation models in the Capital Asset Pricing Model, discussed by Treynor (1961), Sharpe (1964), and Lintner (1965), using the robust maximum likelihood type m-estimator (MM estimator) and Bayes estimator with conjugate prior. According to finance literature and practices, alpha has often been estimated using ordinary least square (OLS) regression method and monthly return data set. A sample of 50 securities is randomly selected from the list of the S&P 500 index. Their daily and monthly returns were collected over a period of the last five years. This research showed that the robust MM estimator performed well better than the OLS and Bayes estimators in terms of efficiency. The Bayes estimator did not perform better than the OLS estimator as expected. Interestingly, we also found that daily return data set would give more accurate alpha estimation than monthly return data set in all three MM, OLS, and Bayes estimators. We also proposed an alternative market efficiency test with the hypothesis testing Ho: α = 0 and was able to prove the S&P 500 index is efficient, but not perfect. More important, those findings above are checked with and validated by Jackknife resampling results.