• 대기
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.555-563
• /
• 2014

The impacts of dynamic and thermodynamic schemes used in the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Los Alamos sea ice model, on sea ice concentration, extent and thickness over the Arctic and Antarctic regions are evaluated. Using the six dynamic and thermodynamic schemes such as sea ice strength scheme, conductivity scheme, albedo type, advection scheme, shortwave radiation method, and sea ice thickness distribution approximation, the sensitivity experiments are conducted. It is compared with a control experiment, which is based on the fixed atmospheric and oceanic forcing. For sea ice concentration and extent, it is found that there are remarkable differences between each sensitivity experiment and the control run over the Arctic and Antarctic especially in summer. In contrast, there are little seasonal variations between the experiments for sea ice thickness. In summer, the change of the albedo type has the biggest influence on the Arctic sea ice concentration, and the Antarctic sea ice concentration has a greater sensitivity to not only the albedo type but also advection scheme. The Arctic sea ice thickness is significantly affected by the albedo type and shortwave radiation method, while the Antarctic sea ice thickness is more sensitive to sea ice strength scheme and advection scheme.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.20-28
• /
• 2004

A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model with 50-km spatial and 24-hour temporal resolution is used to investigate the spatial and long-term temporal variability of the sea ice cover the Arctic Basin. The model satisfactorily reproduces the averaged main characteristics of the sea ice and the sea ice extent in the Arctic Basin and its decrease in early 1990th. At times model allows to suppose partial recovery of sea ice cover in the last years of twenty century. The employment of explicit form for description of ridging gives opportunity to assume that the observed thinning is the result of reduction the intensity of ridging processes and to estimate long-term variability of probability the ridge free navigation in the different parts of the Arctic Ocean including the North Sea Route area.

• 대기
• /
• 제28권1호
• /
• pp.15-24
• /
• 2018

Sea ice plays an important role in modulating surface conditions at high and mid-latitudes. It reacts rapidly to climate change, therefore, it is a good indicator for capturing these changes from the Arctic climate. While many models have been used to study the predictability of climate variables, their performance in predicting sea ice was not well assessed. This study examines the predictability of the Arctic sea ice extent from ensemble prediction systems. The analysis is focused on verification of predictability in each model compared to the observation and prediction in particular, on lead time in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) scales. The S2S database now provides quasi-real time ensemble forecasts and hindcasts up to about 60 days from 11 centers: BoM, CMA, ECCC, ECMWF, HMCR, ISAC-CNR, JMA, KMA, Meteo France, NCEP and UKMO. For multi model comparison, only models coupled with sea ice model were selected. Predictability is quantified by the climatology, bias, trends and correlation skill score computed from hindcasts over the period 1999 to 2009. Most of models are able to reproduce characteristics of the sea ice, but they have bias with seasonal dependence and lead time. All models show decreasing sea ice extent trends with a maximum magnitude in warm season. The Arctic sea ice extent can be skillfully predicted up 6 weeks ahead in S2S scales. But trend-independent skill is small and statistically significant for lead time over 6 weeks only in summer.

• 한국연안방재학회지
• /
• 제4권3호
• /
• pp.133-137
• /
• 2017

The Arctic region remains surrounded by sea ice during most of the period of the year. In the Arctic Ocean the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has been used as an important route for shipping. The arctic sea ice is decreasing since 1979; hence needs to be monitored. In this research work sea ice concentration in the recent years and sea ice concentration anomalies of few months with long term sea ice concentration are studied. The climatology of long term ice concentration data from various satellites, and the recent sea ice concentration data from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) were used. The results show that sea ice concentration and sea ice extent in the Arctic region decreased by around 5% from 2015 to 2016, but in 2017 increased again in smaller amount in some areas like around Novaya Zemlya, and parts of the sea in between Greenland and Longyearbyen, and around Banks Island. The percentages of sea ice area in NSR for July 7 in 2015 to 2017 were 37%, 39% and 33%, respectively, indicating a large area (around ten thousand $km^2$) become ice free in 2017 compared to the previous year.

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• 제32권4호
• /
• pp.379-386
• /
• 2010

This study examines changes in the Arctic sea ice associated with global warming by analyzing the climate coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) provided in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We selected nine models for better performance under 20th century climate conditions based on two different criteria, and then estimated the changes in sea ice extent under global warming conditions. Under projected 21st century climate conditions, all models, with the exception of the GISS-AOM model, project a reduction in sea ice extent in all seasons. The mean reduction in summer (-63%) is almost four times larger than that in winter (-16%), resulting an enhancement of seasonal variations in sea ice extent. The difference between the models, however, becomes larger under the 21st century climate conditions than under 20th century conditions, thus limiting the reliability of sea-ice projections derived from the current CGCMs.

• 한국지구과학회지
• /
• 제36권1호
• /
• pp.82-89
• /
• 2015

전지구 해양 해빙 예측시스템인 NEMO-CICE/NEMOVAR의 해빙 초기조건의 특성을 2013년 6월부터 2014년 5월까지 북극영역에 대하여 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 관측 자료와 재분석 자료를 모델의 초기조건과 비교하였다. 모델 초기조건은 관측에서 나타나는 해빙 면적과 해빙 두께의 월 변동을 잘 보이는 반면, 분석 기간 동안 관측과 재분석 자료보다 북극의 해빙 면적을 좁게, 해빙 두께를 얇게 나타내었다. 모델 초기조건의 북극 해빙 면적이 좁은 것은 해빙의 경계 지역에서 해빙 농도 초기조건이 약 20% 정도 재분석자료보다 낮기 때문이다. 또한 북극 평균 해빙 두께가 얇게 나타나는 이유는 연중 두꺼운 해빙이 유지되는 그린란드 및 북극 군도와 인접한 북극해 영역에서 모델의 초기조건이 약 60 cm 정도 얇기 때문이다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume II
• /
• pp.1019-1022
• /
• 2006

Satellite sea ice data from 1978 to the present reveal that the perennial ice (or ice that survives the summer) has been rapidly declining at almost 10% per decade. Warming due to increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is now also being reflected in winter with drastic reductions in the maximum extent observed in 2005 and 2006. The retreat of the perennial ice also exposes more open water and has revealed an asymmetric distribution of chlorophyll a pigment concentration in the Arctic basin. Phytoplankton blooms are most dominant at high latitudes, partly on account of sea ice, but in the Arctic basin, it appears that pigment concentrations in the Eastern (Laptev Sea) Region are on the average three times higher than those in the Western (Beaufort Sea) Region. Such asymmetry suggests that despite favorable conditions provided by the melt of sea ice, there are other factors that affects the productivity of the region. The asymmetry is likely associated with much wider shelf areas in the East than in the West, with sea ice processes that inhibits the availability of nutrients near the surface in deep water regions, and river run-off that affects nutrient availability. The primary productivity in the pan-Arctic region have been estimated using the pigment concentrations and PAR derived from SeaWiFS data and the results show large seasonal as well as interannual variability during the 1998 to 2005 period. The data points towards increasing productivity for later years but with only 9 years of data it is too early to tell the overall effect of the sea ice retreat.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
• /
• 제25권5호
• /
• pp.423-434
• /
• 2009

북극의 환경은 해빙의 변동에 민감하게 반응하며, 해빙(sea-ice)의 증감은 지구 온난화의 지표이기도 하다. 따라서, 지구의 기후변동의 과정을 이해하고 예측하기 위해서는, 북극 해빙의 변동에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 이루어져야 한다. 이를 위한 방법으로, 1970년대부터 인공위성의 원격탐사방법인 수동마이크로파 센서를 사용해 왔으며, 해빙의 면적과 유형을 판단하는데 효과적이다. 본 논문에서는, 북극 해빙분포의 계절 및 연 변동의 특성을 이해하기 위하여, 북위 60이상의 영역에 대한 2002년 7월부터 2009년 5월까지의 수동마이크로파 센서 AMSR-E 12.5km 해빙농도(SIC)데이터(기존 수동마이크로파 센서보다 5배의 해상도)를 사용하였다. 여름 최저 해빙역 시점의 데이터에 의하면, 북극 해빙면적은 점차 줄어드는 추세를 나타내고 있으며, 그 감소율은 연간 3.1%로 이것은 약 0.2백만$km^2$의 해빙이 줄어들고 있다는 것을 의미한다. 또한 이 경향은 여름철 해수면수온과 기온의 증가와 관련 있는 다년빙(Multi-Hear ice)의 감소와 함께 진행되고 있다는 것이다. 1년빙(First-year ice)의 면적은 최저의 해빙면적을 기록하였던 2007까지 감소하나, 갑작스런 다년빙(Multi-year ice)의 감소는 2008-2009년 기간의 1년빙의 증가로 이어졌다. 계절에 따른 연 변동에 있어서는, 1월-3월기간에 걸처 바렌츠해(Barents Sea)와 래브라도해(Labrador Sea)에서 공간변동이 크고, 8월-10월 기간에는 동시베리아해(East Siberian Sea)에서 북극점에 이르는 범위에서 큰 것으로 나타났다. 7년 동안 녹지 않은 다년빙의 공간분포도에 의하면, 다년빙이 러시아해역의 동시베리아해, 랍데브해(Laptev Sea)와 카라해(Kara Sea)에서 급격하게 감소하고 있어서 가까운 장래에 북동항로(Northeast Passage)의 이용가능성이 커지고 있다.

• Strategy21
• /
• 통권30호
• /
• pp.200-235
• /
• 2012

Over the past few years, due to the climate change of the earth, the Arctic's sea ice cover is undergoing a historic transformation - thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and mitigation in the area of multi-year ice in the central Arctic Ocean. These changes allow for increases in maritime access throughout the Arctic Ocean and for potential longer seasons of navigation and possibly transarctic voyage in the summer. These changes also allow more exploration for oil, gas, and other minerals. The Arctic is now an archetype of the complex, multi-dimensional global problems of the twenty-first century. Military security, environmental security, and economic security interact. The potentially enormous economic stakes, sufficient to change the strategic balance among the states of the region, set off competitive pressures for national advantage. Korea, which is heavily dependent upon the sea lane in terms of transportation of its exports and imports, is very much interested in the Arctic sea routes. Korea believes that the Artic sea route, particularly the Northern Sea Route (NSR), could serve as a new useful sea lane, which will enable shorter times between East Asia and Europe, thus resulting in substantial cost saving for ship operators. In addition to shipping, Korea is interested in other Arctic-related maritime industries. Korea, as a leading shipbuilder in the global market, is interested in building ice breakers, drill ships, and other vessels which can contribute to safe operation in Arctic resource development and exploration. Korea, as one of the future stakeholders in Arctic maritime activities, should be ready to foster international cooperation in the region.

• Strategy21
• /
• 통권43호
• /
• pp.29-55
• /
• 2018

Arctic sea ice has been retreating as a result of the global warming. Arctic sea ice extent for April 2018 averaged 13.71 million square kilometers. This figure shows far less sea ice compared to the average extent from 1981 to 2010. Meanwhile, 287 times of maritime transits through the Northwest Passage have been made during the 2017 and the first ship traversed the Northern Sea Route without the assistant of ice-breaker in August 2017. Commercialization of the Arctic Passage means significant economic and strategic advantages by shortening the distance. In this article, 'Arctic Passage' means Northern Sea Route along the Arctic coast of Russia and Northwest Passage crossing Canadian Arctic Ocean. As climate changes, the potential feasibility of the Arctic Passage has been drawing international attention. Since navigation in this area remains hazardous in some aspects, IMO adopted Polar Code to promote safe, secure and sustainable shipping through the Arctic Passage. Futhermore, Russia and Canada regulate foreign vessels over the maritime zones with the authority to unilaterally exercise jurisdiction pursuant to the Article 234 of UNCLOS. The dispute over the navigation regime of the arctic passage materialized with Russia proclaimed Dmitrii Laptev and Sannikov Straits as historically belong to U.S.S.R. in the mid 1960s and Canada declared that the waters of the passage are historic internal waters in 1973 for the first time. So as to support their claims, In 1985, Russia and Canada established straight baseline including Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. The United States has consistently protested that the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage are straits used for international navigation which are subject to the regime of transit passage. Firstly, it seems that Russia and Canada do not meet the basic requirements for acquiring a historic title. Secondly, since the Law of the Sea had adopted before the establishment of straight baseline over the Russian Arctic Archipelago and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Ships can exercise at least the right of innocent passage. Lastly, Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage have fulfilled the both geographical and functional criteria pertaining to the strait used for international navigation under the international law. Especially, should the arctic passage become commercially viable, it can be expected to accumulate the functional criterion. Russia and Canada regulate the ships navigate in their maritime zones by adopting the higher degree of an environmental standard than generally accepted international rules and standard mainly under the Article 234 of UNCLOS. However, the Article 234 must be interpreted restrictively as this contains constraint on the freedom of navigation. Thus, it is reasonable to consider that the Article 234 is limited only to the EEZ of coastal states. Therefore, ships navigating in the Arctic Passage with the legal status of the territorial sea and the international straits under the law of the sea have the right of innocent passage and transit passage as usual.