Ocean and Polar Research

Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology (한국해양과학기술원)
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Projected Sea-ice Changes in the Arctic Sea under Global Warming

기후변화에 따른 북극해 빙해역 변화

  • Kwon, Mi-Ok (Division of Marine Environment & Bioscience Korea Maritime University) ;
  • Jang, Chan-Joo (Climate Change & Coastal Disaster Research Department, KORDI) ;
  • Lee, Ho-Jin (Division of Marine Environment & Bioscience Korea Maritime University)
  • 권미옥 (한국해양대학교 대학원 해양생명환경학과) ;
  • 장찬주 (한국해양연구원 기후.연안재해연구부) ;
  • 이호진 (한국해양대학교 대학원 해양생명환경학과)
  • Received : 2010.09.15
  • Accepted : 2010.12.10
  • Published : 2010.12.30
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Abstract

This study examines changes in the Arctic sea ice associated with global warming by analyzing the climate coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) provided in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We selected nine models for better performance under 20th century climate conditions based on two different criteria, and then estimated the changes in sea ice extent under global warming conditions. Under projected 21st century climate conditions, all models, with the exception of the GISS-AOM model, project a reduction in sea ice extent in all seasons. The mean reduction in summer (-63%) is almost four times larger than that in winter (-16%), resulting an enhancement of seasonal variations in sea ice extent. The difference between the models, however, becomes larger under the 21st century climate conditions than under 20th century conditions, thus limiting the reliability of sea-ice projections derived from the current CGCMs.

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References

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