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http://dx.doi.org/10.4217/OPR.2010.32.4.379

Projected Sea-ice Changes in the Arctic Sea under Global Warming  

Kwon, Mi-Ok (Division of Marine Environment & Bioscience Korea Maritime University)
Jang, Chan-Joo (Climate Change & Coastal Disaster Research Department, KORDI)
Lee, Ho-Jin (Division of Marine Environment & Bioscience Korea Maritime University)
Publication Information
Ocean and Polar Research / v.32, no.4, 2010 , pp. 379-386 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study examines changes in the Arctic sea ice associated with global warming by analyzing the climate coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) provided in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We selected nine models for better performance under 20th century climate conditions based on two different criteria, and then estimated the changes in sea ice extent under global warming conditions. Under projected 21st century climate conditions, all models, with the exception of the GISS-AOM model, project a reduction in sea ice extent in all seasons. The mean reduction in summer (-63%) is almost four times larger than that in winter (-16%), resulting an enhancement of seasonal variations in sea ice extent. The difference between the models, however, becomes larger under the 21st century climate conditions than under 20th century conditions, thus limiting the reliability of sea-ice projections derived from the current CGCMs.
Keywords
Arctic sea ice; CGCM; projection; global warming;
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