• Title/Summary/Keyword: Annual maximum series

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Hydrological Studies on the flood and Risk of failure of the Hydraulic Structures(Ⅰ) -On the annual maximum series- (水利構造物의 破壞危險度와 設計洪水量에 관한 水文學的 硏究(Ⅰ) -年最高値 系列을 中心으로-)

  • Lee, Soon-Hyuk;Park, Myeong-Keun
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.23-37
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    • 1985
  • This studies were carried out to get characteristics of frequency distribution, probable flood flows according to the return periods, and the correlation between return periods and those length of records affect the Risk of failure in the annual maximum series of the main river systems in Korea. Especially, Risk analysis according to the levels were emphasized in relation to the design frequency factors for the different watersheds. Twelve watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong, Yeong San and Seom Jin river basin were selected as studying basins. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Type 1 extremal distribution was newly confirmed as a good fitted distribution at selected watersheds along Geum and Yeong San river basin. Three parameter lognormal Seom Jin river basin. Consequently, characteristics of frequency distribution for the extreme value series could be changed in connection with the watershed location even the same river system judging from the results so far obtained by author. 2. Evaluation of parameters for Type 1 extremal and three parameter lognormal distribution based on the method of moment by using an electronic computer. 3. Formulas for the probable flood flows were derived for the three parameter lognormal and Type 1 extremal distribution. 4. Equations for the risk to failure could be simplified as $\frac{n}{N+n}$ and $\frac{n}{T}$ under the condition of non-parametric method and the longer return period than the life of project, respectively. 5. Formulas for the return periods in relation to frequency factors were derived by the least square method for the three parameter lognormal and Type 1 extremal distribution. 6. The more the length of records, the lesser the risk of failure, and it was appeared that the risk of failure was increasing in propotion to the length of return periods even same length of records. 7. Empirical formulas for design frequency factors were derived from under the condition of the return periods identify with the life of Hydraulic structure in relation to the risk level. 8. Design frequency factor was appeared to be increased in propotion to the return periods while it is in inverse proportion to the levels of the risk of failure. 9. Derivation of design flood including the risk of failure could be accomplished by using of emprical formulas for the design frequency factor for each watershed.

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Interannual Variability and Long-term Trend of Coastal Sea Surface Temperature in Korea (한국 연안 표층수온의 경년변동과 장기변화)

  • Min, Hong-Sik;Kim, Cheol-Ho
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.415-423
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    • 2006
  • Interannual variation and long-term trends of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) in Korea were investigated by analyzing 27 coastal SST time series from 1969 to 2004. Long-term linear increasing trend was remarkable with the rate over $0.02^{\circ}C/year$ at almost all the stations. The slope of long-term linear trend was larger at the stations along the eastern coast than in the western and southern regions. It was also noticeable that there was a common tendency of interannual variability with the period of 3-5 years at most of the stations. SST was lower in the 1970's and early 1980's while it was higher in the 1990's and early 2000's after the increase in the late 1980's. The pattern of the interannual variability of SST was similar to that of air temperature. Increasing trend of minimum SST in winter was obvious at most stations na it was larger along the eastern coast, while the linear trend of maximum SST in summer was less definite. Therefore, the decreasing tendency of annual amplitude was mainly due to the increasing tendency of SST in winter.

Influences of Temperature Change Rates and Impervious Surfaces on the Intra-City Climatic Patterns of Busan Metropolitan Area (부산광역시 국지적 기후 패턴에 대한 기온변화율과 불투수면의 영향)

  • PARK, Sun-Yurp
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.199-217
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    • 2016
  • Influences of seasonal warming and cooling rates on the annual temperature patterns were analyzed based on the meteorological data from 13 weather stations in Busan Metropolitan Area(BMA), Korea during 1997~2014. BMA daily temperature time-series was generalized by Fourier analysis, which mathematically summarizes complex, regularly sampled periodic records, such as air temperature, into a limited number of major wave components. Local monthly warming and cooling rates of BMA were strongly governed by the ocean effect within the city. March($1.121^{\circ}C/month$) and November(-$1.564^{\circ}C/month$) were the two months, when the most rapid warming and cooling rates were observed, respectively during the study period. Geographically, spring warming rates of inland increased more rapidly compared to coastal areas due to weaker ocean effect. As a result, the annual maximum temperature was reached earlier in a location, where the annual temperature range was larger, and therefore its July mean temperature and continentality were higher. Interannual analyses based on average temperature data of all weather stations also showed that the annual maximum temperature tended to occur earlier as the city's July mean temperature increased. Percent area of impervious surfaces, an indicator of urbanization, was another contributor to temperature change rates of the city. Annual mean temperature was positively correlated with percent area of impervious surfaces, and the variations of monthly warming and cooling rates also increased with percent area of impervious surfaces.

Studies on the Effects of the Pine Needle Gall Midge, Thecodiplosis japonensis Uchida et Inouye, on the Growth of the Red Pine, Pinus densiflora S. et Z.(III) -Radial Growth Impact- (솔잎혹파리가 소나무생장(生長)에 미치는 영향(影響)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(III) -직경생장저해(直徑生長沮害)-)

  • Park, Ki Nam;Hyun, Jai Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.65 no.1
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 1984
  • Using the Duff and Noland's method, the annual ring growth patterns of the red pine in the natural stands were examined at two locations; Seocheon, Chungnam-do where the stand had been infested with the pine needle gall midge, Thecodiplosis japonensis, during the years from 1975 to 1978, and Hongsong, Chungnam-do where had been no incidence of the insect damage. The results obtained are as follows: 1) With the normal red pine of 13 year old, the growth pattern in the oblique sequence indicates that the annual growth rates are maximum at the few terminal internodes, and decrease gradually with the downward internodes. Such characteristic of the growth pattern is not clear in the horizontal sequence of annual rings. 2) The indications of the radial growth reduction of the pine tree due to the pine gall midge infestation could be examined with any of three series at the crown level internodes; horizontal, vertical and oblique series. For the basal internodes, however, the horizontal series appeared to be inadequate for the analysis of the damage impact because it seemed to be masked by various factors other than direct effects of the damage. 3) Of the three ways of radial growth analyses, oblique sequence seems to be the most usefull, especially for the detection of the impact on growth caused by incipient or light infestation.

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Study of Snow Depletion Characteristics at Two Mountainous Watersheds Using NOAA AVHRR Time Series Data

  • Shin, Hyungjin;Park, Minji;Chae, Hyosok;Kim, Saetbyul;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.315-324
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    • 2013
  • Spatial information of snow cover and depth distribution is a key component for snowmelt runoff modeling. Wide snow cover areas can be extracted from NOAA AVHRR or Terra MODIS satellite images. In this study eight sets of annual snow cover data (1997-2006) in two mountainous watersheds (A: Chungju-Dam and B: Soyanggang-Dam) were extracted using NOAA AVHRR images. The distribution of snow depth within the Snow Cover Area (SCA) was generated using snowfall data from ground meteorological observation stations. Snow depletion characteristics for the two watersheds were analyzed snow distribution time series data. The decreased pattern of SCA can be expressed as a logarithmic function; the determination coefficients were 0.62 and 0.68 for the A and B watersheds, respectively. The SCA decreased over 70% within 10 days from the time of maximum SCA.

Fluctuations and Time Series Forecasting of Sea Surface Temperature at Yeosu Coast in Korea (여수연안 표면수온의 변동 특성과 시계열적 예측)

  • Seong, Ki-Tack;Choi, Yang-Ho;Koo, Jun Ho;Jeon, Sang-Back
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.122-130
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    • 2014
  • Seasonal variations and long term linear trends of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) at Yeosu Coast ($127^{\circ}37.73^{\prime}E$, $34^{\circ}37.60^{\prime}N$) in Korea were studied performing the harmonic analysis and the regression analysis of the monthly mean SST data of 46 years (1965-2010) collected by the Fisheries Research and Development Institute in Korea. The mean SST and the amplitude of annual SST variation show $15.6^{\circ}C$ and $9.0^{\circ}C$ respectively. The phase of annual SST variation is $236^{\circ}$. The maximum SST at Yeosu Coast occurs around August 26. Climatic changes in annual mean SST have had significant increasing tendency with increase rate $0.0305^{\circ}C/Year$. The warming trend in recent 30 years (1981-2010) is more pronounced than that in the last 30 years (1966-1995) and the increasing tendency of winter SST dominates that of the annual SST. The time series model that could be used to forecast the SST on a monthly basis was developed applying Box-Jenkins methodology. $ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)_{12}$ was suggested for forecasting the monthly mean SST at Yeosu Coast in Korea. Mean absolute percentage error to measure the accuracy of forecasted values was 8.3%.

Relationship between Flood Characteristics and Underground Inundation (홍수특성과 지하공간침수의 관계 검토)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Lee, Keon-Haeng;Kyoung, Min-Soo;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.02a
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    • pp.367-370
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    • 2007
  • In recent, the utilization of underground in urban area is increased as subway, store, and others but we have done a few studies for the inundation of underground due to flooding. So, we investigate the examples of underground inundation and the causes of inundation for flood events. And the relationship between flood characteristics and underground inundation is analyzed through the frequency of rainfall which is made by annual multi maximum series. As a result, most of underground is inundated by high frequency of rainfall. And there are some cases that the underground is inundated by low frequency of rainfall because of poor drainage system and characteristics of location.

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Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by L-Moments (L-모멘트법에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도)

  • 이순혁;박명근;맹승진;정연수;김동주;류경식
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.318-324
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by Generalized Extreme-value(GEV) distribution for the annual maximum series at ten watersheds along Han, Nagdong, Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data used in this study was established by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity, detection of Outliers. L-coefficient of variation, L-skewness and L-kurtosis were calculated by L-moment ratio respectively. Parameters were estimated by the Methods of Moments and L-Moments. Design floods obtained by Methods of Moments and L-Moments using different methods for plotting positions in GEV distribution were compared by the relative mean and relative absolute error. It was found that design floods derived by the method of L-moments using weibull plotting position formula in GEV distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by method of moments using different formulas for plotting positions in view of relative mean and relative absolute error.

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Comparative Analysis of Flood Frequncy by Moment and L-moment in Weibull-3 distribution (Weibull-3 분포모형의 모멘트법 및 L-모멘트법에 의한 홍수빈도비교분석)

  • 이순혁;맹승진;송기헌;류경식;지호근
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.331-337
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    • 1998
  • This study was carried out to derive optimal design floods by Weibull-3 distribution with the annual maximum series at seven watersheds along Man, Nagdong, Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data used in this study was acknowledged by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity, detection of Outliers. Parameters were estimated by the Methods of Moments and L-Moments. Design floods obtained by Methods of Moments and L-Moments using different methods for plotting positions in Weibull-3 distribution were compared by the rotative mean error and relative absolute error. It has shown that design floods derived by the method of L-moments using Weibull plotting position formula in Weibull-3 distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by method of moments using different formulas for plotting positions in view of relative mean and relative absolute error.

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Derivation of Optimal Distribution for the Frequency Analysis of Extreme Flood using LH-Moments (LH-모멘트에 의한 극치홍수량의 빈도분석을 위한 적정분포형 유도)

  • Maeng, Sung-Jin;Lee, Soon-Hyuk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.229-232
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order of LH-moments of the annual maximum series at six and nine watersheds in Korea and Australia, respectively. Adequacy for flood flow data was confirmed by the tests of independence, homogeneity, and outliers. Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Pareto (GPA), and Generalized Logistic (GLO) distributions were applied to get the best fitting frequency distribution for flood flow data. Theoretical bases of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments were derived to estimate the parameters of 4 distributions. L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment ratio diagrams (LH-moments ratio diagram) were developed in this study.

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