• Title/Summary/Keyword: Annual maximum flood

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Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by Gamma and Generalized Gamma Distribution Models(II) -On the Generalized Gamma Distribution Model- (Gamma 및 Generalized Gamma 분포 모형에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도(II) -Generalized Gamma 분포모형을 중심으로-)

  • 이순혁;박명근;맹승진;정연수;류경선
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by generalized gamma distribution model of the annual maximum series at eight watersheds along Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. Design floods obtained by different methods for evaluation of parameters and for plotting positions in the generalized gamma distribution model were compared by the relative mean errors and graphical fit along with 95% confidence limits plotted on gamma probability paper. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Basic statistics and parameters were calculated by the generalized gamma distribution model using different methods for parameters. 2. Design floods according to the return periods were obtained by different methods for evaluation of parameters and for plotting positions in the generalized gamma distribution model. 3. It was found that design floods derived by sundry averages method for parameters and Cunnane method for plotting position in the generalized gamma distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by the other methods for parameters and for plotting positions from the viewpoint of relative mean errors. 4. Reliability of design floods derived by sundry averages method in the generalized gamma distribution was acknowledged within 95% confidence interval.

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Derivatio of Optimal Design Flood by L-Moments and LH-Moments(II) - On the method of LH-Moments - (L-모멘트 및 LH-모멘트 기법에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도(II)-LH-모멘트법을 중심으로)

  • 이순혁
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 1999
  • Derivatio of reasonable design floods was attempted by comparative analysis of design floods derived by Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution using methods of L-moments and LH-moments for the annual maximum series at ten watersheds along Han, Nagdong. Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems, LH-coefficient of variation, LH-skewness and Lh-kurtosis were calcualted by KH-moment ration respectively. Paramenters were estimated by the Method of LH-Moments, Design floods obtained by Method of LH-Moments using different methods for plotting positionsi n GEV distribution and design floods were compared with those obtained using the Method of L-Moments by the Relative Mean Errors(RME) and Relative Absolute Errors(RAE). The results was found that design floods derived by the method of L-Moments and LH-Moments using Cunnane plotting position formula in the GEV distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by methods of L-moments and LH-moments using the other formula for plotting positions from the viewpoint of Relative Mean Errors and Relative Absolute Errors. In viewpoint of the fact that hydrqulic structures including dams and levees are genrally using design floods with the return period of two hundred years or so, design floods derived by LH-Moments are seemed to be more reasonable than those of L-Moments in the GEV distribution.

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An Analysis on the Long-Term Runoff of the Yong San River (영산강의 장기유출량에 관한 고찰)

  • 한상욱;정종수
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.4184-4194
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    • 1976
  • Located in the southwestern part of Korea, the Yong San Gang river flows generally northeast to southwest, and because of the specific location, topography and climate, the basin area is subject to recurrent drought and flood damages. To eliminate the cause of such damages and ensure an increase in the farm income by means of effective irrigation supply and increased cropping intensity, efforts are being made to speed up implementation of an integrated agricultural development project which would include construction. of an estuary dam and irrigation facilities as well as land development and tidal reclarnation. In formulating a basin development project plan, it is necessary to study a series of long-term runoff data. The catchment area at the proposed estuary damsite is 3,471$\textrm{km}^2$ with the total length of the river channel up to this point reaching 138km. An analysis of runoff in this area was carried out. Rainfall was estimated by the Thiessen Network based on records available from 15 of the rainfall observation stations within the area. Out of the 15 stations, Kwang Ju and Mok Po stations were keeping long-term precipitation records exceeding some 60 years while the others were in possession of only 5-10 years records. The long-term records kept by those stations located in the center of the basin were used as base records and records kept by the remaining stations were supplemented using the coefficient of correlation between the records kept by the base stations and the remainder. The analyses indicate that the average annual rainfall measured at Kwang Ju during 1940-1972 (33 years) amounts to 1,262mm and the areal rainfall amounts to 1,236mm. For the purpose of runoff analysis, 7 observatories, were set up in the middle and lower reaches of the river and periodic measurements made by these stations permitted analysis of water levels and river flows. In particular, the long-term data available from Na Ju station significantly contributed to the analysis. The analysis, made by 4-stage Tank method, shows that the average annual runoff during 1940-1972 amounts to 2,189 million ㎥ at the runoff rate of 51%. As for the amount of monthly runoff, the maximum is 484.2 million ㎥ in July while the minimum is 48.3 million ㎥ in January.

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Spatial distribution and uncertainty of daily rainfall for return level using hierarchical Bayesian modeling combined with climate and geographical information (기후정보와 지리정보를 결합한 계층적 베이지안 모델링을 이용한 재현기간별 일 강우량의 공간 분포 및 불확실성)

  • Lee, Jeonghoon;Lee, Okjeong;Seo, Jiyu;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.747-757
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    • 2021
  • Quantification of extreme rainfall is very important in establishing a flood protection plan, and a general measure of extreme rainfall is expressed as an T-year return level. In this study, a method was proposed for quantifying spatial distribution and uncertainty of daily rainfall depths with various return periods using a hierarchical Bayesian model combined with climate and geographical information, and was applied to the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region. The annual maximum daily rainfall depth of six automated synoptic observing system weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration in the study area was fitted to the generalized extreme value distribution. The applicability and reliability of the proposed method were investigated by comparing daily rainfall quantiles for various return levels derived from the at-site frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis based on the index flood method. The uncertainty of the regional frequency analysis based on the index flood method was found to be the greatest at all stations and all return levels, and it was confirmed that the reliability of the regional frequency analysis based on the hierarchical Bayesian model was the highest. The proposed method can be used to generate the rainfall quantile maps for various return levels in the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region and other regions with similar spatial sizes.

New Concept of Average River Bed and General Trend of River Bed Change in the Nakdong River (새로운 평균하상 개념과 낙동강의 하상 변동 경향성 분석)

  • Yu, Kwon-Kyu
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.486-494
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    • 2011
  • River bed change due to various factors in watershed and/or river environment would one of the most important issues in river management. To judge whether the river bed was aggrading or degrading, normally we use the change in thalweg or average bed, calculated using the design flood of the river. The present study is to figure out the problems of the existing methods and to propose a new concept of average river bed using annual maximum flood. To evaluate the new method, it was applied to the Nakdong River. We use the river bed data surveyed in 1983, 1993, and 2005. The results showed that there were no significant river bed change during 1983 and 1993, while the river bed was degraded significantly during 1993 and 2005. In the latter period, the river had severe degradations, 2~3 m in average sense and 5 m for the maximum in the middle reach(120~200 km from river mouth), and 1~2 m in average in the upper reach(200~240 km from river mouth). For the upstream reach of the confluence of the Naesung River(about 240 km from river mouth), most of the river bed change seemed to be only local phenomena. The main cause of the river bed change in the Nakdong River seems to be massive gravel mining in the middle reach of the river.

An Evaluation of Extreme Precipitation based on Local Downpour using Empirical Simulation Technique (Empirical Simulation Technique 기법을 이용한 집중호우의 극한강우 평가)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 2009
  • The occurrence causes of the extreme rainfall to happen in Korea can be distinguished with the typhoons and local downpours. The typhoon events attacked irregularly to induce the heavy rainfall, and the local downpour events mean a seasonal rain front and a local rainfall. Almost every year, the typhoons and local downpours that induced a heavy precipitation be generated extreme disasters like a flooding. Consequently, in this research, There were distinguished the causes of heavy rainfall events with the typhoons and the local downpours at Korea. Also, probability precipitation was computed according to the causes of the local downpour events. An evaluation of local downpours can be used for analysis of heavy rainfall event in short period like a flash flood. The methods of calculation of probability precipitation used the parametric frequency analysis and the Empirical Simulation Technique (EST). The correlation analysis was computed between annual maximum precipitation by local downpour events and sea surface temperature, moisture index for composition of input vectors. At the results of correlation analysis, there were revealed that the relations closely between annual maximum precipitation and sea surface temperature. Also, probability precipitation using EST are bigger than probability precipitation of frequency analysis on west-middle areas in Korea. Therefore, region of west-middle in Korea should prepare the extreme precipitation by local downpour events.

An Analysis of Thermal Environment Change according to Green Roof System (옥상녹화 조성에 따른 열환경 변화분석)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Jung, Eung-Ho;Kim, Dae-Wuk;Cha, Jae-Gyu;Shimizu, Aki
    • Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.100-103
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    • 2009
  • The impermeable area on the surface of city has been increased as buildings and artificial landcover have continually been increased. Urban development has gradually decreased the green zone in downtown and alienated the city from the natural environment on outskirt area devastating the natural eco system. There arise the environmental problems peculiar to city including urban heat island phenomenon, urban flood, air pollution and urban desertification. As one of urban plans to solve such problems, green roof system is attracting attentions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the heat reduction effect according to the development of green roof system and to quantify the heat reduction effect by analyzing through simulation the heat environment before and after green roof system. For thermal environment analysis, Thermo-Render 3.0 was used that was developed by Tokyo Industrial College to simulate. The simulation showed that the heat island index before and after the development of tree-planting on rooftop changed maximum $0.86^{\circ}C$ and the surface temperature changed about $20^{\circ}C$. Only with lawn planting, heat reduction effect was great and it means that the green roof system in low-management-light-weight type is enough to see effect. The simulation identified that only lawn planting for green rooftop brought such difference and could lower the heat island index at a narrow area. It is judged that application of green roof system to wider areas might relieve urban heat island phenomenon positively.

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An Analysis of the Characteristics in Design Rainfall According to the Data Periods (자료기간에 따른 확률 강우량 변화 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Tae-Suk;Kim, Min-Seok;Moon, Young-Il;Ahn, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.115-127
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    • 2009
  • Recently, Natural disasters are increasing the damage according to the influence of the abnormal climate and climate change. This study analyzed change characteristic of Design Rainfall according to the different data periods. First, 14 observatories were selected at Meteorological Administration. Second, frequency analysis carried out 5 cases by different data periods. At the results of the frequency analysis, the design rainfall could confirm the increase in most areas of Korea. Also, the change and trend analysis carried out for characteristic analysis by design rainfall and observed rainfall. The change and trend analysis of observed annual maximum rainfall did not appeared, but the change and trend analysis of design rainfall significantly appeared using statistic methods. The result of the change and trend analysis, design rainfall increased in most areas of Korea. Although, it could be the necessity for reestimating defense ability of flood, existing river systems, and new establishment of structure about the change characteristic.

A Bayesian Analysis of Return Level for Extreme Precipitation in Korea (한국지역 집중호우에 대한 반환주기의 베이지안 모형 분석)

  • Lee, Jeong Jin;Kim, Nam Hee;Kwon, Hye Ji;Kim, Yongku
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.947-958
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    • 2014
  • Understanding extreme precipitation events is very important for flood planning purposes. Especially, the r-year return level is a common measure of extreme events. In this paper, we present a spatial analysis of precipitation return level using hierarchical Bayesian modeling. For intensity, we model annual maximum daily precipitations and daily precipitation above a high threshold at 62 stations in Korea with generalized extreme value(GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution(GPD), respectively. The spatial dependence among return levels is incorporated to the model through a latent Gaussian process of the GEV and GPD model parameters. We apply the proposed model to precipitation data collected at 62 stations in Korea from 1973 to 2011.

Analysis of the Changes in Rainfall Quantile according to the Increase of Data Period (자료기간 증가에 따른 확률강우량의 거동특성 분석)

  • An, Jae-Hyeon;Kim, Tae-Ung;Yu, Cheol-Sang;Un, Yong-Nam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.569-580
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    • 2000
  • To account for the influence of heavy storm in Korea by climate change like global warming, the frequency analyses for annual maximum rainfall sequence in 12 rainfall gauge stations are carried out. In order to analyze the temporal change, the rainfall quantile of each station is estimated by the 30-yr data period being moved from 1954 to 1998 with 1-yr lag. Through the analysis for l00-yr rainfall quantile it has been shown that the recent heavy storms increase comparing with storms in the past. From the additional estimating of the rainfall quantile of each station by the 30-yr data period being cumulated from 1954 to 1998 with 1-yr, the change of the probable rainfall by including the heavy storm duration is realized. When the hydraulic structures are determined, it is important to select the data size and necessary to reestimate the flood prevention capacity in existing river systems.ystems.

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