• 제목/요약/키워드: Annual Cycle Model

검색결과 78건 처리시간 0.026초

Designing an Inventory Model of Parallel-Type Distribution System

  • Kwon, Hee Chul;Kim, Man Shik
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 1989
  • A one-upper level warehouse n-Iower level retailer inventory distribution model is discussed. This paper presents the parallel-type inventory structure using an order-up-to-level invertory control system for analyzing the approximation of the expected units back ordered and the measure of service. We find that the total expected backorder units in system can substitute the expected back orders in the last two periods for the expected back orders in total periods. The rate of total expected back orders which is the measure of disservice, is given by dividing the improved units of total expected backorder into the total demand during an order cycle. The average annual total cost in system is obtained by considering the results, but from the viewpoint of this study the cost analysis is not described.

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기후변화에 따른 대구지역 지하배수 전망 (Future subsurface drainage in the light of climate change in Daegu, South Korea)

  • 은코모제피 템바;정상옥
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 2012
  • Over the last century, drainage systems have become an integral component of agriculture. Climate observations and experiments using General circulation models suggest an intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change. This study presents hydrologic simulations assessing the potential impact of climate change on subsurface drainage in Daegu, Republic of Korea. Historical and Long Ashton Research Station weather generator perturbed future climate data from 15 general circulation models for a field in Daegu were ran into a water management simulation model, DRAINMOD. The trends and variability in rainfall and Soil Excess Water ($SEW_{30}$) were assessed from 1960 to 2100. Rainfall amount and intensity were predicted to increase in the future. The predicted annual subsurface drainage flow varied from -35 to 40 % of the baseline value while the $SEW_{30}$ varied from -50 to 100%. The expected increases in subsurface drainage outflow require that more attention be given to soil and water conservation practices.

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ARIMA Based Wind Speed Modeling for Wind Farm Reliability Analysis and Cost Estimation

  • Rajeevan, A.K.;Shouri, P.V;Nair, Usha
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2016
  • Necessity has compelled man to improve upon the art of tapping wind energy for power generation; an apt reliever of strain exerted on the non-renewable fossil fuel. The power generation in a Wind Farm (WF) depends on site and wind velocity which varies with time and season which in turn determine wind power modeling. It implies, the development of an accurate wind speed model to predict wind power fluctuations at a particular site is significant. In this paper, Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model for wind speed is developed for a 99MW wind farm in the southern region of India. Because of the uncertainty in wind power developed, the economic viability and reliability of power generation is significant. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) method is used to determine the economic viability of WF generated power. Reliability models of WF are developed with the help of load curve of the utility grid and Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). ARIMA wind speed model is used for developing COPT. The values of annual reliability indices and variations of risk index of the WF with system peak load are calculated. Such reliability models of large WF can be used in generation system planning.

SUNSHINE, EARTHSHINE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: II. SOLAR ORIGINS OF VARIATIONS IN THE EARTH'S ALBEDO

  • GOODE P. R.;PALLE E.;YURCHYSHYN V.;QIU J.;HICKEY J.;RODRIGUEZ P. MONTANES;CHU M.-C.;KOLBE E.;BROWN C.T.;KOONIN S.E.
    • 천문학회지
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    • 제36권spc1호
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2003
  • There are terrestrial signatures of the solar activity cycle in ice core data (Ram & Stoltz 1999), but the variations in the sun's irradiance over the cycle seem too small to account for the signature (Lean 1997; Goode & Dziembowski 2003). Thus, one would expect that the signature must arise from an indirect effect(s) of solar activity. Such an indirect effect would be expected to manifest itself in the earth's reflectance. Further, the earth's climate depends directly on the albedo. Continuous observations of the earthshine have been carried out from Big Bear Solar Observatory since December 1998, with some more sporadic measurements made during the years 1994 and 1995. We have determined the annual albedos both from our observations and from simulations utilizing the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scene model and various datasets for the cloud cover, as well as snow and ice cover. With these, we look for inter-annual and longer-term changes in the earth's total reflectance, or Bond albedo. We find that both our observations and simulations indicate that the albedo was significantly higher during 1994-1995 (activity minimum) than for the more recent period covering 1999-2001 (activity maximum). However, the sizes of the changes seem somewhat discrepant. Possible indirect solar influences on the earth's Bond albedo are discussed to emphasize that our earthshine data are already sufficiently precise to detect, if they occur, any meaningful changes in the earth's reflectance. Still greater precision will occur as we expand our single site observations to a global network.

The Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Rivers Basin of Korea Using Rainfall Elasticity

  • Kim, Byung Sik;Hong, Seung Jin;Lee, Hyun Dong
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, the rainfall elasticity of streamflow was estimated to quantify the effects of climate change on 5 river basins. Rainfall elasticity denotes the sensitivity of annual streamflow for the variations of potential annual rainfall. This is a simple, useful method that evaluates how the balance of a water cycle on river basins changes due to long-term climate change and offers information to manage water resources and environment systems. The elasticity method was first used by Schaake in 1990 and is commonly used in the United States and Australia. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP, semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes) was used to simulate the variations of area streamflow, and potential evapotranspiration. A nonparametric method was then used to estimate the rainfall elasticity on five river basins of Korea. In addition, the A2 (SRES IPCC AR4, Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) climate change scenario and stochastic downscaling technique were used to create a high-resolution weather change scenario in river basins, and the effects of climate change on the rainfall elasticity of each basin were then analyzed.

Study on an open fuel cycle of IVG.1M research reactor operating with LEU-fuel

  • Ruslan А. Irkimbekov ;Artur S. Surayev ;Galina А. Vityuk ;Olzhas M. Zhanbolatov ;Zamanbek B. Kozhabaev;Sergey V. Bedenko ;Nima Ghal-Eh ;Alexander D. Vurim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권4호
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    • pp.1439-1447
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    • 2023
  • The fuel cycle characteristics of the IVG.1M reactor were studied within the framework of the research reactor conversion program to modernize the IVG.1M reactor. Optimum use of the nuclear fuel and reactor was achieved through routine methods which included partial fuel reloading combined with scheduled maintenance operations. Since, the additional problem in planning the fuel cycle of the IVG.1M reactor was the poisoning of the beryllium parts of the core, reflector, and control system. An assessment of the residual power and composition of spent fuel is necessary for the selection and justification of the technology for its subsequent management. Computational studies were performed using the MCNP6.1 program and the neutronics model of the IVG.1M reactor. The proposed scheme of annual partial fuel reloading allows for maintaining a high reactor reactivity margin, stabilizing it within 2-4 βeff for 20 years, and achieving a burnup of 9.9-10.8 MW × day/kg U in the steady state mode of fuel reloading. Spent fuel immediately after unloading from the reactor can be placed in a transport packaging cask for shipping or safely stored in dry storage at the research reactor site.

Variability of Surface Water Properties in the Japan/East Sea on Different Time Scales

  • Ponomarev, Vladimir;Rudykh, Natalya;Dmitrieva, Elena;Ishida, Hajime
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제31권2호
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    • pp.177-187
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    • 2009
  • This study examined the multi-scale variabilities of sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the Japan/East Sea (JES) based on statistical analyses of observational data, with a focus on the northwestern part of the sea. The regionality of JES SST variability was estimated for different frequency ranges on semimonthly (11-17 days), monthly to seasonal (30-90 days), quasi-semiannual (157-220 days), and quasi-biennial (1.5-3 years) time scales using cluster analyses of daily gridded SST data for 1996 to 2007 from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Several significant peaks and regional cores were found in each frequency range of the SST anomaly (SSTA) oscillations. Quasi-semiannual SSTA oscillations with high amplitude were found in the south-southwestern part of the Japan Basin ($41-43^{\circ}N$) and were amplified in the area adjacent to Peter the Great Bay. Oscillations with periods of 79 and 55 days also prevailed over the southwest Japan Basin between the Yamato Rise and the continental slope. A similar method was applied to classify SST and the annual cycle of surface salinity using Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) gridded data. The Tatarskii Strait and adjacent area showed the most specific annual cycles and variability in salinity on interannual to interdecadal time scales. The most significant inverse relationship between surface salinity in the Tatarskii Strait and southern JES areas was found on the interdecadal time scale. Linkages of sea water salinity in the Tatarskii Strait with Amur River discharge and wind velocity over Amurskii Liman were also revealed.

유역단위에서의 연강수량의 변동점 분석을 위한 계층적 Bayesian 분석기법 개발 (A development of hierarchical bayesian model for changing point analysis at watershed scale)

  • 김진국;김진영;김윤희;권현한
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제50권2호
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2017
  • 최근 기후변화에 따른 기상변동성 증가로 기존 한반도의 기상패턴과 다른 이상강우 현상이 증가하고 있다. 이상강우현상에 따른 수문패턴의 변화는 수자원 계획을 수립하는데 있어 불확실성을 가중시키기고 있다. 이러한 점에서 수문 시계열의 변화양상을 효과적으로 인지할 수 있으며, 유역단위에서 일관된 변화를 평가할 수 있는 변동점 분석 개발이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기존 변동점 분석방법에 계층적 베이지안(Hierarchical Bayesian) 기법을 연계하여 유역단위에서 계층적 변동점 분석이 가능한 모형을 개발하였다. 우리나라에 40년 이상 관측된 기상청 강수자료를 활용하여 연강수량 자료를 구축하였으며, 본 연구를 통해 개발된 모형의 적합성을 평가하였다. 분석결과, 1990년대의 강수자료의 변화 양상을 정량적으로 확인할 수 있었으며, 과거에 비해 강수의 증가 특성을 확인할 수 있었다. 최종적으로 추정된 수문자료의 변화시점 전후의 재해석자료를 이용하여 한반도 주변의 강수량과 해수면기압의 Anomaly를 분석해본 결과 변동점을 기준으로 강수량과 해수면기압의 명확한 차이를 확인하였다.

Annual Cycle of PCBs Concentration in the Atmosphere

  • Kang, Byung-Wook;Shin, Eun-Sang;Yeo, Hyun-Gu
    • 환경위생공학
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2007
  • PCBs의 대기 중 농도는 고용량 PUF sampler를 이용하여 2000년부터 2002년까지 주 1회 수도권 인근지역인 경기도 안성에서 측정하였다. 본 논문은 비선형 회귀모델을 이용하여 대기 중 가스상 PCBs의 연간, 월간 사이클을 평가 하고자 한다. Clausius-Clepeyron 식을 이용한 가스상 PCBs의 기울기는 고분자로 갈수록 증가하는 경향이었다. 이는 고분자 PCBs는 저분자 PCBs에 비해 온도 의존성이 크다는 것을 의미한다. 다시 말해, 고분자 PCBs는 다른 지역에서 장거리 이송되어 오는 오염물질의 영향 보다는 지역적인 오염원(예, 토양, 수계 등)에 의해 영향을 크게 받고 있다는 것을 시사한다. Lorentzian 모델을 이용한 총 PCBs의 일별, 월별 회귀식의 결정계수($R^2$)는 각각 0.62(p<0.0001), 0.88(p<0.0001)로 나타나 유의한 결과를 보였다. 또한, 비선형 회귀식 모델을 활용하여 구한 가스상 PCBs의 일별, 월별 싸이클을 모사한 방정식도 매우 유의한 결과(p<0.0001)를 나타내었다.

마둔저수지 농업유역의 관개 회귀수량 추정 (Estimation of Irrigation Return Flow on Agricultural Watershed in Madun Reservoir)

  • 김하영;남원호;문영식;방나경;김한중
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제63권2호
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2021
  • Irrigation return flow is defined as the excess of irrigation water that is not evapotranspirated by direct surface drainage, and which returns to an aquifer. It is important to quantitatively estimate the irrigation return flow of the water cycle in an agricultural watershed. However, the previous studies on irrigation return flow rates are limitations in quantifying the return flow rate by region. Therefore, simulating irrigation return flow by accounting for various water loss rates derived from agricultural practices is necessary while the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of cultivated canal-irrigated watersheds. In this study, the irrigation return flow rate of agricultural water, especially for the entire agricultural watershed, was estimated using the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) module from 2010 to 2019 for the Madun reservoir located in Anseong, Gyeonggi-do. The results of SWMM simulation and water balance analysis estimated irrigation return flow rate. The estimated average annual irrigation return flow ratio during the period from 2010 to 2019 was approximately 55.3% of the annual irrigation amounts of which 35.9% was rapid return flow and 19.4% was delayed return flow. Based on these results, the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approach can provide a valuable approach for estimating the irrigation return flow under different hydrological and water management conditions.