• 한국측량학회지
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.589-594
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• 2015

In reflection of road expansion and increasing use rates, interest has blossomed in predicting driving environment. In addition, a gigantic scale of big data is applied to almost every area around the world. Recently, technology development is being promoted in the area of road traffic particularly for traffic information service and analysis system in utilization of big data. This study examines actual cases of road management systems and road information analysis technologies, home and abroad. Based on the result, the limitations of existing technologies and road management systems are analyzed. In this study, a development direction and expected effort of the prediction of road information are presented. This study also examines regression analysis about relationship between guide name and traffic volume. According to the development of driving environment prediction platform, it will be possible to serve more reliable road information and also it will make safe and smart road infrastructures.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2011년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.488-493
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• 2011

Authors previously suggested the design sensitivity analysis based on transmissibility function and identified the sensitivity of measured point over the small modification of system dynamics. On the other hand, the acceleration data will not reveal the strain information at the same location and authors suggested energy isoclines that successfully predict the fatigue damage on the interesting location to overcome the drawback of acceleration over fatigue society. Both of methodologies, sensitivity analysis and fatigue damage prediction, commonly use the response acceleration response as main indicator. In this paper, authors investigate the advanced method of vibration fatigue prediction using design sensitivity analysis to enhance the accuracy of predicted accumulated fatigue. Uni-axial vibration testing is performed with finite element model of a simple notched specimen and the prediction of fatigue damage at notched location is conducted for accelerations at different measurement locations that show different sensitivity contribution, either.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.242-247
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• 2009

지능형 추천 시스템은 사용자의 요청에 응답하는 수동적인 시스템이 아닌 사용자가 원하는 서비스를 제안하는 시스템으로서 최근 콘텐츠 서비스 분야에 많이 개발되고 있다. 이러한 지능형 추천 시스템은 콘텐츠 개인화 서비스에 응용되고 있으며 대표적인 추천기법으로 내용기반과 협업적 필터링 기법이 있다. 본 연구에서는 협업적 필터링 및 퍼지 시스템을 이용하여 추천 시스템의 기반 기술인 예측 시스템을 제안하였다. 제안한 예측 시스템은 사용자의 과거 영화평가 정보를 바탕으로 영화에 대한 평가점수를 예측한다. 영화평가 예측시스템의 성능은 영화 평가점수의 실제값과 예측값의 오차를 RMSE(root mean square error) 방법으로 계산한 후 기존의 영화평가 시스템 RMSE 값과 비교하여 평가하였다. 본 연구를 통해 제안한 영화평가 예측시스템이 추천 시스템의 기반 기술로서 활용이 가능하고 다른 멀티미디어 컨텐츠 서비스 추천에도 응용이 가능할 것으로 기대한다.

• 대기
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.113-121
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• 2013

The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate the system to produce the real-time ensemble drought prediction data. Ensemble drought prediction consists of 3 processes (meteorological outlook using the multi-initial conditions, hydrological analysis and drought index calculation) therefore, more processing time and data is required than that of single member. For ensemble drought prediction, data process time is optimized and hardware of existing system is upgraded. Ensemble drought data is estimated for year 2012 and to evaluate the accuracy of drought prediction data by using ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) analysis. We obtained 5 ensembles as optimal number and predicted drought condition for every tenth day i.e. 5th, 15th and 25th of each month. The drought indices used are SPI (Standard Precipitation Index), SRI (Standard Runoff Index), SSI (Standard Soil moisture Index). Drought conditions were determined based on results obtained for each ensemble member. Overall the results showed higher accuracy using ensemble members as compared to single. The ROC score of SRI and SSI showed significant improvement in drought period however SPI was higher in the demise period. The proposed ensemble drought prediction system can be contributed to drought forecasting techniques in Korea.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.477-482
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• 2015

단기풍속 예측을 위한 진화적 선형 및 비선형 회귀분석 기반의 보정 기법을 비교한다. 모델의 체계적 오류를 교정하기 위한 효율적인 MOS(Model Output Statistics)의 개발이 필요하나, 기존의 선형회귀분석 기반의 보정기법은 다양한 기상요소의 복잡한 비선형 특성을 반영하기 힘들다. 이를 개선하기 위해서 유전 프로그래밍을 사용하여 풍속 예측에 대한 비선형 보정 수식을 생성하는 기법을 제안하고 기본 다중선형회귀분석법 및 Ridge, Lasso 회귀분석법과 비교한다. 더불어, 선형회귀분석법과 진화적 비선형회귀분석 기법의 인자 선택의 차이와 유사성을 비교하고 분석한다. 2007년~2013년의 KLAPS(Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) 재분석자료를 사용하여 제주도와 부산지역의 격자점에 대한 실험을 수행한다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume II
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• pp.884-887
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• 2006

This paper focuses on minimizing flood damage in the Yeongdeok basin of South Korea by establishing a flood prediction model based on a geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing, and geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GcIUH) techniques. The GIS database for flash flood prediction was created using data from digital elevation models (DEMs), soil maps, and Landsat satellite imagery. Flood prediction was based on the peak discharge calculated at the sub-basin scale using hydrogeomorphologic techniques and the threshold runoff value. Using the developed flash flood prediction model, rainfall conditions with the potential to cause flooding were determined based on the cumulative rainfall for 20 minutes, considering rainfall duration, peak discharge, and flooding in the Yeongdeok basin.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.185-194
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• 2010

In recommender systems which are used widely at e-commerce, collaborative filtering needs the information of user-ratings and neighbor user-ratings. These are an important value for recommendation in recommender systems. We investigate the in-formation of rating in NBCFA (neighbor Based Collaborative Filtering Algorithm), we suggest new algorithm that improve prediction accuracy of recommender system. After we analyze relations between two variable and Error Value (EV), we suggest new algorithm and apply it to fitted line. This fitted line uses Least Squares Method (LSM) in Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA). To compute the prediction value of new algorithm, the fitted line is applied to experimental data with fitted function. In order to confirm prediction accuracy of new algorithm, we applied new algorithm to increased sparsity data and total data. As a result of study, the prediction accuracy of recommender system in the new algorithm was more improved than current algorithm.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제38권6_1호
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• pp.1191-1205
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• 2022

복잡하고 광범위한 원인을 가진 대기오염물질 중 particulate matter (PM)은 입자의 크기에 따라 분류된다. 그 중 PM_2.5는 그 크기가 매우 작아 사람이 흡입하면 인간의 호흡기나 심혈관에 질병을 유발할 수 있다. 이러한 위험에 대비하기 위해서는 국가 중심의 관리와 사전에 예방할 수 있는 모니터링 및 예측이 중요하다. 본 연구는 고농도 미세먼지의 발생이 잦은 서울시의 PM_2.5를 local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS) 기상 관련 인자 15가지와 aerosol optical depth (AOD), 화학인자 4가지를 독립변수로 하여 앙상블 모델 두 가지 random forest (RF)와 extreme gradient boosting (XGB)로 예측하고자 하였다. 예측에 사용된 두 모델의 성능 평가와 인자 중요도 평가를 수행하였으며, 계절별 모델 분석도 수행하였다. 예측 정확도 결과, RF가 R² = 0.85, XGB가 R² = 0.91의 높은 예측 정확도를 보이며 XGB가 RF보다 PM_2.5 예측에 적합한 모델임을 확인하였다. 계절별 모델 분석 결과, 봄에 농도가 높은 관측 값과 비교하여 예측 수행이 잘 되었다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 다양한 인자를 이용하여 서울시의 PM_2.5를 예측하였고, 좋은 성능을 보이는 앙상블 기반의 PM_2.5 예측 모델을 구축하였다.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제28권1_2호
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• pp.439-450
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• 2010

In this paper, we propose a new idea to evaluate the prediction accuracy of user's preference generated by memory-based collaborative filtering algorithm before prediction process in the recommender system. Our analysis results show the possibility of a pre-evaluation before the prediction process of users' preference of item's transaction on the web. Classification functions proposed in this study generate a user's rating pattern under certain conditions. In this research, we test whether classification functions select users who have lower prediction or higher prediction performance under collaborative filtering recommendation approach. The statistical test results will be based on the differences of the prediction accuracy of each user group which are classified by classification functions using the generative probability of specific rating. The characteristics of rating patterns of classified users will also be presented.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.611-622
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• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.