• Title/Summary/Keyword: Analysis Techniques

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Analysis of the Case with Serial Killer Young Cheol Yoo (유영철 연쇄살인사건 분석)

  • Lee, Jin-Dong;Lee, Sang-Han
    • Journal of forensic and investigative science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.32-51
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    • 2007
  • Serial violent crimes have occurred more frequently. Additional attention is paid to relevant areas in which discussions has also increased. This study analyzed Young-cheol Yoo, serial killer case. Two of Yoo's crimes were studied for modus operandi. The cases selected were the premeditated break-in homicide of upper-class elderly people and the impulsive homicide of the Hwanghak-Dong street vendor. Crime motives, targets, times, places, means and methods were analyzed. Profiling techniques in Young-cheol Yoo cases were evaluated and the problems discovered during investigation were discussed. The followings are the findings of the analysis of the serial killer Yoo cases. Yoo exhibited a hatred toward the rich, the elderly, and women as well as a fear of diseases and death. Yoo's crime targets were the elderly residing in wealthy houses, street vendors and prostitutes. The numbers of victims were: 3 men and 5 women victims in 4 homicide cases involving the elderly residents in wealthy houses; one man in 1 street vendor homicide case 11 women in 11 prostitute homicide cases, so total 20 persons were murdered in 16 cases. The time of the crimes were between 10 am and noon in the homicide cases of the elderly and very late at night or early in the morning in the prostitute homicide cases. Means and methods facilitated include the use of a knife as a threat and a hammer made by Yoo to strike the head and face of victims. In the homicide cases involving the elderly, he attempted to disguise the crime scene as a burglary or committed arson to destroy the evidence; in the prostitute homicide cases, bodies were mutilated and buried in secret. 1) Generally each serial killer case has different characteristics, motives, and purposes; while some serial killer cases involve similar methods, others use different methods. Unlike other crimes, serial killers' characteristics and tastes are very different, so it is difficult to explain serial killings based on a specific model. It is important to accurately capture modus operandi of each serial killing and for detectives to familiarize themselves with them. The process of tracing and use of imagination which follows a serial killer's psychology and thought must be used to find out what kind of thoughts pushed the killer to commit the crime. In order to investigate and research difficult subjects such as serial killing, various methods, skills, and relevant knowledge should be studied, and institutional endeavors should go hand in hand with individual efforts.

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Development of lumped model to analyze the hydrological effects landuse change (토지이용 변화에 따른 수문 특성의 변화를 추적하기 위한 Lumped모형의 개발)

  • Son, Ill
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.233-252
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    • 1994
  • One of major advantages of Lumped model is its ability to simulate extended flows. A further advantage is that it requires only conventional, readily available hydrological data (rainfall, evaporation and runoff). These two advantages commend the use of this type of model for the analysis of the hydrological effects of landuse change. Experimental Catchment(K11) of Kimakia site in Kenga experienced three phases of landuse change for sixteen and half years. The Institute of Hydrology offered the hydrological data from the catchment for this research. On basis of Blackie's(l972) 9-parameter model, a new model(R1131) was reorganized in consideration of the following aspects to reflect the hydrological characteristics of the catchment: 1) The evapotranspiration necessary for the landuse hydrology, 2) high permeable soils, 3) small catchment, 4) input option for initial soil moisture deficit, and 5) othel modules for water budget analysis. The new model is constructed as a 11-parameter, 3-storage, 1-input option model. Using a number of initial conditions, the model was optimized to the data of three landuse phases. The model efficiencies were 96.78%, 97.20%, 94.62% and the errors of total flow were -1.78%, -3.36%, -5.32%. The bias of the optimized models were tested by several techniques, The extended flows were simulated in the prediction mode using the optimized model and the data set of the whole series of experimental periods. They are used to analyse the change of daily high and low-flow caused by landuse change. The relative water use ratio of the clearing and seedling phase was 60.21%, but that of the next two phases were 81.23% and 83.78% respectively. The annual peak flows of second and third phase at a 1.5-year return period were decreased by 31.3% and 31.2% compared to that of the first phase. The annual peak flow at a 50-year return period in the second phase was an increase of only 4.8%, and that in the third phase was an increase of 12.9%. The annual minimum flow at a 1.5-year return period was decreased by 34.2% in the second phase, and 34.3% in the third phase. The changes in the annual minimum flows were decreased for the larger return periods; a 20.2% decrease in the second phase and 20.9% decrease in the third phase at a 50-year return period. From the results above, two aspects could be concluded. Firstly, the flow regime in Catchment K11 was changed due to the landuse conversion from the clearing and seedling phade to the intermediate stage of pine plantation. But, The flow regime was little affected after the pine trees reached a certain height. Secondly, the effects of the pine plantation on the daily high- and low-flow were reduced with the increase in flood size and the severity of drought.

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The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

3-Dimensional Verification Technique for Target Point Error (자기공명영상기반 겔 선량측정법을 이용한 3차원적 목표 중심점 점검기술)

  • Lee, Kyung-Nam;Lee, Dong-Joon;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2011
  • For overall system test, hidden-target test have been used using film which leads to inherent analysis error. The purpose of our study is to quantify this error and to propose gel dosimeter based verification technique for 3-dimensional target point error. The phantom was made for simulation of human head and this has ability to equip 10 gel-dosimeter. $BANGkit^{TM}$ which we are able to manufacture whenever it is needed as well as to easily change the container with different shapes was used as a gel dosimeter. The 10 targets were divided into two groups based on shapes of areas with a planned 50% isodose line. All treatment and analysis was performed three times using Novalis and $BrainSCAN^{TM}$. The target point error is $0.77{\pm}0.15mm$ for 10 targets and directional target point error in each direction is $0.54{\pm}0.23mm$, $0.37{\pm}0.08mm$, $0.33{\pm}0.10mm$ in AP (anterior-posterior), LAT (lateral), and VERT (vertical) direction, respectively. The result of less than 1 mm shows that the treatment was performed through each precise step in treatment procedure. In conclusion, the 3-dimensional target point verification technique can be one of the techniques for overall system test.

An Economic Factor Analysis of Air Pollutants Emission Using Index Decomposition Methods (대기오염 배출량 변화의 경제적 요인 분해)

  • Park, Dae Moon;Kim, Ki Heung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.167-199
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    • 2005
  • The following policy implications can be drawn from this study: 1) The Air Pollution Emission Amount Report published by the Ministry of Environment since 1991 classifies industries into 4 sectors, i. e., heating, manufacturing, transportation and power generation. Currently, the usability of report is very low and extra efforts should be given to refine the current statistics and to improve the industrial classification. 2) Big pollution industries are as follows - s7, s17 and s20. The current air pollution control policy for these sectors compared to other sectors are found to be inefficient. This finding should be noted in the implementation of future air pollution policy. 3) s10 and s17 are found to be a big polluting industrial sector and its pollution reduction effect is also significant. 4) The effect of emission coefficient (${\Delta}f$) has the biggest impact on the reduction of emission amount change and the effect of economic growth coefficient (${\Delta}y$) has the biggest impact on the increase of emission volume. The effect of production technology factor (${\Delta}D$) and the effect of the change of the final demand structure (${\Delta}u$) are insignificant in terms of the change of emission volume. 5) Further studies on emission estimation techniques on each industry sector and the economic analysis are required to promote effective enforcement of the total volume control system of air pollutants, the differential management of pollution causing industrial sectors and the integration of environment and economy. 6) Korea's economic growth in 1990 is not pollution-driven in terms of the Barry Commoner's hypothesis, even though the overall industrial structure and the demand structure are not environmentally friendly. It indicates that environmental policies for the improvement of air quality depend mainly on the government initiatives and systematic national level consideration of industrial structures and the development of green technologies are not fully incorporated.

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Optimal Configuration of the Truss Structures by Using Decomposition Method of Three-Phases (3단계(段階) 분할기법(分割技法)에 의한 평면(平面)트러스 구조물(構造物)의 형상(形狀) 최적화(最適化)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Gyu Won;Song, Gi Beom
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 1992
  • In this research, a Three Level Decomposition technique has been developed for configuration design optimization of truss structures. In the first level, as design variables, behavior variables are used and the strain energy has been treated as the cost function to be maximized so that the truss structure can absorb maximum energy. For design constraint of the optimal design problem, allowable stress, buckling stress, and displacement under multi-loading conditions are considered. In the second level, design problem is formulated using the cross-sectional area as the design variable and the weight of the truss structure as the cost function. As for the design constraint, the equilibrium equation with the optimal displacement obtained in the first level is used. In the third level, the nodal point coordinates of the truss structure are used as coordinating variable and the weight has been taken as the cost function. An advantage of the Three Level Decomposition technique is that the first and second level design problems are simple because they are linear programming problems. Moreover, the method is efficient because it is not necessary to carry out time consuming structural analysis and techniques for sensitivity analysis during the design optimization process. By treating the nodal point coordinates as design variables, the third level becomes unconstrained optimal design problems which is easier to solve. Moreover, by using different convergence criteria at each level of design problem, improved convergence can be obtained. The proposed technique has been tested using four different truss structures to yield almost identical optimum designs in the literature with efficient convergence rate regardless of constraint types and configuration of truss structures.

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The Outcome of Conventional External Beam Radiotherapy for Patients with Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Esophagus (식도의 편평상피세포암 환자에서 외부방사선치료의 결과)

  • Jang, Ji-Young
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The best treatment for advanced esophageal cancer is chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery. In spite of the advance of multimodality therapy, most patients with esophageal cancer are treated with radiation therapy alone. This study reports the outcome of the use of conventional external beam radiotherapy alone for the treatment of esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods: Between January 1998 and December 2005, 30 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus were treated with external beam radiotherapy using a total dose exceeding 40 Gy. Radiotherapy was delivered with a total dose of 44-60 Gy(median dose, 57.2 Gy) over $36{\sim}115$ days(median time, 45 days). Thirteen patients(43.3%) had a history of disorders such as diabetes, hypertension, tuberculosis, lye stricture, asthma, cerebral infarct, and cancers. Four patients metachronously had double primary cancers. The most common location of a tumor was the mid-thoracic portion of the esophagus(56.7%). Tumor lengths ranged from 2 cm to 11 cm, with a median length of 6 cm. For AJCC staging, stage III was the most common (63.3%). Five patients had metastases at diagnosis. Results: The median overall survival was 8.3 months. The survival rates at 1-year and 2-years were 33.3% and 18.7%, respectively. The complete response rate $1{\sim}3$ months after radiotherapy was 20%(6/30) and the partial response rate was 70%(21/30). Sixteen patients(53.3%) had an improved symptom of dysphagia. Significant prognostic factors were age, tumor length, stage, degree of dysphagia at the time of diagnosis and tumor response. Cox regression analysis revealed the aim of treatment, clinical tumor response and tumor length as independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Twenty-eight patients had local failure and another four patients had metastases. Three patients were detected with double primary cancers in this analysis. A complication of esophageal stricture was observed in three patients(10%), and radiation pneumonitis occurred in two patients(6.7%). Conclusion: The prognosis of esophageal cancer remains poor, in spite of advances in radiotherapy techniques. Radiotherapy is one of the main treatment modalities for the relief of dysphagia and treatment related complications are minimal. It is expected that the addition of chemotherapy or another systemic modality to radiotherapy will improve tumor control and increase the survival rate in advanced esophageal cancer.

Performance of Drip Irrigation System in Banana Cultuivation - Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

  • Kumar, K. Nirmal Ravi;Kumar, M. Suresh
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2016
  • India is largest producer of banana in the world producing 29.72 million tonnes from an area of 0.803 million ha with a productivity of 35.7 MT ha-1 and accounted for 15.48 and 27.01 per cent of the world's area and production respectively (www.nhb.gov.in). In India, Tamil Nadu leads other states both in terms of area and production followed by Maharashtra, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. In Rayalaseema region of Andhra Pradesh, Kurnool district had special reputation in the cultivation of banana in an area of 5765 hectares with an annual production of 2.01 lakh tonnes in the year 2012-13 and hence, it was purposively chosen for the study. On $23^{rd}$ November 2003, the Government of Andhra Pradesh has commenced a comprehensive project called 'Andhra Pradesh Micro Irrigation Project (APMIP)', first of its kind in the world so as to promote water use efficiency. APMIP is offering 100 per cent of subsidy in case of SC, ST and 90 per cent in case of other categories of farmers up to 5.0 acres of land. In case of acreage between 5-10 acres, 70 per cent subsidy and acreage above 10, 50 per cent of subsidy is given to the farmer beneficiaries. The sampling frame consists of Kurnool district, two mandals, four villages and 180 sample farmers comprising of 60 farmers each from Marginal (<1ha), Small (1-2ha) and Other (>2ha) categories. A well structured pre-tested schedule was employed to collect the requisite information pertaining to the performance of drip irrigation among the sample farmers and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model was employed to analyze the performance of drip irrigation in banana farms. The performance of drip irrigation was assessed based on the parameters like: Land Development Works (LDW), Fertigation costs (FC), Volume of water supplied (VWS), Annual maintenance costs of drip irrigation (AMC), Economic Status of the farmer (ES), Crop Productivity (CP) etc. The first four parameters are considered as inputs and last two as outputs for DEA modelling purposes. The findings revealed that, the number of farms operating at CRS are more in number in other farms (46.66%) followed by marginal (45%) and small farms (28.33%). Similarly, regarding the number of farmers operating at VRS, the other farms are again more in number with 61.66 per cent followed by marginal (53.33%) and small farms (35%). With reference to scale efficiency, marginal farms dominate the scenario with 57 per cent followed by others (55%) and small farms (50%). At pooled level, 26.11 per cent of the farms are being operated at CRS with an average technical efficiency score of 0.6138 i.e., 47 out of 180 farms. Nearly 40 per cent of the farmers at pooled level are being operated at VRS with an average technical efficiency score of 0.7241. As regards to scale efficiency, nearly 52 per cent of the farmers (94 out of 180 farmers) at pooled level, either performed at the optimum scale or were close to the optimum scale (farms having scale efficiency values equal to or more than 0.90). Majority of the farms (39.44%) are operating at IRS and only 29 per cent of the farmers are operating at DRS. This signifies that, more resources should be provided to these farms operating at IRS and the same should be decreased towards the farms operating at DRS. Nearly 32 per cent of the farms are operating at CRS indicating efficient utilization of resources. Log linear regression model was used to analyze the major determinants of input use efficiency in banana farms. The input variables considered under DEA model were again considered as influential factors for the CRS obtained for the three categories of farmers. Volume of water supplied ($X_1$) and fertigation cost ($X_2$) are the major determinants of banana farms across all the farmer categories and even at pooled level. In view of their positive influence on the CRS, it is essential to strengthen modern irrigation infrastructure like drip irrigation and offer more fertilizer subsidies to the farmer to enhance the crop production on cost-effective basis in Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh, India. This study further suggests that, the present era of Information Technology will help the irrigation management in the context of generating new techniques, extension, adoption and information. It will also guide the farmers in irrigation scheduling and quantifying the irrigation water requirements in accordance with the water availability in a particular season. So, it is high time for the Government of India to pay adequate attention towards the applications of 'Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and its applications in irrigation water management' for facilitating the deployment of Decision Supports Systems (DSSs) at various levels of planning and management of water resources in the country.

Geo-surface Environmental Changes and Reclaimed Amount Prediction Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System in the Siwha Area (원격탐사와 지리정보시스템을 이용한 시화지구 일대의 지표환경변화와 토공량 예측연구)

  • Yang, So-Yeon;Song, Moo-Young;Hwang, Jeong
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.161-176
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    • 1999
  • The objectives of this study are to analyze the changes of geo-surface topography in the Siwha embankment and the Ahsan city area by the image processing of Landsat Thematic Mapper data, and to estimate the reclaimed amount of the exposed tidal flat in the Siwha area using the GIS. False color composite, Tasseled cap, NVDI(normalized difference vegetation index), and supervised classification techniques were used to analyze the distribution of sediments and the aspect of topographical variations caused by artificial human actions. The total amount of the exposed tidal flat was estimated on the basis of the database snch as aerial photography, hydrographic chart, geological map, and scheme drawing in the Siwha area. The possible excavation regions for a seawall were predicted analyzing the supervised classification image of Landsat TM data. Tasseled cap images were used to observe the distribution of sediments. The difference of the NDVI images between spring and summer seasons indicates that deciduous and coniferous forests were distributed over the whole areas. The total fill-volume of the exposed Siwha tidal flat and the fill-volume of the construction planning seawall were calculated as $581,485,354\textrm{m}^3{\;}and{\;}3,387,360\textrm{m}^3$, respectively, from the digital terrain analysis. Daebu Island, Sunkam Island, and the part of Songsan-myeon were chosen as the cut area to make the seawall, and their cut-volumes were estimated as $5,229,576\textrm{m}^3,{\;}79,227,072\textrm{m}^3,{\;}and{\;}47,026,008\textrm{m}^3$, respectively. Therefore, the cut-volume of Daebu Island alone among three areas was sufficient to make the seawall.

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A Performance Comparison of the Mobile Agent Model with the Client-Server Model under Security Conditions (보안 서비스를 고려한 이동 에이전트 모델과 클라이언트-서버 모델의 성능 비교)

  • Han, Seung-Wan;Jeong, Ki-Moon;Park, Seung-Bae;Lim, Hyeong-Seok
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.286-298
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    • 2002
  • The Remote Procedure Call(RPC) has been traditionally used for Inter Process Communication(IPC) among precesses in distributed computing environment. As distributed applications have been complicated more and more, the Mobile Agent paradigm for IPC is emerged. Because there are some paradigms for IPC, researches to evaluate and compare the performance of each paradigm are issued recently. But the performance models used in the previous research did not reflect real distributed computing environment correctly, because they did not consider the evacuation elements for providing security services. Since real distributed environment is open, it is very vulnerable to a variety of attacks. In order to execute applications securely in distributed computing environment, security services which protect applications and information against the attacks must be considered. In this paper, we evaluate and compare the performance of the Remote Procedure Call with that of the Mobile Agent in IPC paradigms. We examine security services to execute applications securely, and propose new performance models considering those services. We design performance models, which describe information retrieval system through N database services, using Petri Net. We compare the performance of two paradigms by assigning numerical values to parameters and measuring the execution time of two paradigms. In this paper, the comparison of two performance models with security services for secure communication shows the results that the execution time of the Remote Procedure Call performance model is sharply increased because of many communications with the high cryptography mechanism between hosts, and that the execution time of the Mobile Agent model is gradually increased because the Mobile Agent paradigm can reduce the quantity of the communications between hosts.