• Korean Security Journal
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• no.40
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• pp.7-33
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• 2014

Korean Government decided to establish the Ministry of National Emergency Management and has reformed the emergency management system due to Sewol ferry disaster. These efforts has been focused on the hardware rather than the software. All-hazard approach has been employed as the one of main principles in the emergency management in the United States. All-hazards approach concerns arrangements for managing the large range of possible effects of risks and emergencies. Once the priority of risks and emergencies is decided, agencies prepare for them. In addition, interagency collaboration is critical for the preparation of risks and emergencies such as cooperation with local governments instead of FEMA alone. It is necessary to consider employing all-hazard approach for the Ministry of National Emergency Management. Moreover, 'Korean All-hazard approach' should be developed in order to manage upcoming emergencies.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.43
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• pp.7-35
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• 2015

The Ministry of Public Safety and Security was established in order to handle all sorts of disasters because of Sewol ferry tragedy and the fundamental reform on the emergency management system will be performed. The establishment of the Ministry of Public Safety and Security is considered as the landmark for the emergency management when it is compared to those in the United States and Japan in terms of the size and the authority. However, there are many tasks to be done for the settlement of the Ministry of Public Safety and Security. More specifically, a real and substantial plan should be prepared because the organization was established without blueprints or detailed implementation plan. This study suggests that all-hazard approach which is the one of the disaster management principles should be applied when the substantial plan is prepared. All possible hazard should be analyzed, assessed, and prioritized. In addition, Based on the results, the effective policies should be established with the consideration of Korean context.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.801-812
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• 1999

Change-point hazard rate models arise for example in applying "burn-in" techniques to screen defective items and in studing times until undesirable side effects occur in clinical trials. Sometimes in screening defectives it might be sensible to model two stages of burn-in. In a clinical trial there might be an initial hazard rate for a side effect which after a period of time changes to an intermediate hazard rate before settling into a long term hazard rate. In this paper we consider the multiple change points hazard rate model. The classical approach's asymptotics can be poor for the small to all moderate sample sizes often encountered in practice. We propose a Bayesian approach avoiding asymptotics to provide more reliable inference conditional only upon the data actually observed. The Bayesian models can be fitted using simulation methods. Model comparison is made using recently developed Bayesian model selection criteria. The above methodology is applied to a generated data and to a generated data and the Lawless(1982) failure times of electrical insulation.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.75-80
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• 2003

The objectives of this study is to achieved by the use of the conceptual approach and accident data bases to develop statistical accident analysis, effectiveness values, comparison analysis of statistical models to determine which variables are significantly related to accidents, human factor, and hazard factor analysis, all of which were used in the railroad crossing. The result from this approach applicable to the railroad crossing where systematic safety management criteria have been considered.

• Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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• 1997.11a
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• pp.252-259
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• 1997

A method to automate hazard analysis of chemical plants is proposed in this paper. The proposed system is composed of three knowledge bases - unit knowledge base, organizational knowledge base and material knowledge base, and three hazard analysis algorithms - deviation, malfunction and accident analysis algorithm. Hazard analysis inference procedure is developed based on the actual hazard analysis procedures and accident development sequence. The proposed algorithm can perform hazard analysis in two methods and represent all conceivable types of accidents using accident analysis algorithm. In addition, it provides intermediate steps in the accident propagation, and enables the analysis result to give a useful information to hazard assessment. The proposed method is successfully demonstrated by being applied to diammonium phosphate manufacturing process. A system to automate hazard analysis is developed by using the suggested method. The developed system is expected to be useful in finding the propagation path of a fault or the cause of a malfunction as it is capable to approach causes of faults and malfunctions simultaneously.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.11-16
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• 2005

Chemical mixtures of components, each of which are present at less than guidance concentrations, may be hazardous due to additivity, interactions, or both. Toxicological interactions may increase the health hazard above what would be expected from an assessment of each component singly, or all components additively. So chemical mixture are a particular issue in public health. There are several approach to assess whether there are additivity or interaction in assessing toxicological effects, such as, components-based approach, physiologically-based pharmacokinetic /pharmacodynamic(PBPK/PD) models, hazard index method, and weight-of evidence method. If we consider interaction or additivity effects in assessing the health effects of chemcial mixtures, we can get more accurate information about toxicological effects and dose-response relationship in chemical mixtures.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.87-96
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• 2007

In this paper a methodology of identifying individual pipes according to the internal and external characteristics of pipe is developed, and the methodology is applied to a case study water distribution pipe break database. Using the newly defined individual pipes the hazard rates of the cast iron 6 inch pipes are modeled by implementing the proportional hazards modeling approach for consecutive pipe failures. The covariates to be considered in the modeling procedures are selected by considering the general availability of the data and the practical applicability of the modeling results. The individual cast iron 6 inch pipes are categorized into seven ordered survival time groups according to the total number of breaks recorded in a pipe to construct distinct proportional hazard model (PHM) for each survival time group (STG). The modeling results show that all of the PHMs have the hazard rate forms of the Weibull distribution. In addition, the estimated baseline survivor functions show that the survival probabilities of the STGs generally decrease as the number of break increases. It is found that STG I has an increasing hazard rate whereas the other STGs have decreasing hazard rates. Regarding the first failure the hazard ratio of spun-rigid and spun-flex cast iron pipes to pit cast iron pipes is estimated as 1.8 and 6.3, respectively. For the second or more failures the relative effects of pipe material/joint type on failure were not conclusive. The degree of land development affected pipe failure for STGs I, II, and V, and the average hazard ratio was estimated as 1.8. The effects of length on failure decreased as more breaks occur and the population in a GRID affected the hazard rate of the first pipe failure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.119-125
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• 2010

The most important part in the decision making is to decide the weight of attributes which indicate the relative importance of the properties to be estimated with different criteria respectively. In this study, the new MCDM method which consider typical preexisting methods all together is proposed. For doing those, Weighted Utopian Approach is newly suggested by combining typical 7 weighting methods and distance-based Utopian Approach which is one of the MCDM methods. The suggested method has the advantage of accomplishing representativeness and universality of the MCDM methods because it incorporates multiple weighting methods of diverse characteristics. It also yields not only the one final result but also the results calculated from each weighting method, broadening the options of the choice to the alternatives. The application of the new model to virtual engineering problems show that we can perform the decision making and the assessment of priority order more objectively with it and that it has high applicability to the practice, giving us simple calculation process.

• The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.49-66
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• 2018

Volcano hazard mapping became a focus of scientific inquiry in the 1960s. Dwight Crandell and Don Mullineaux pioneered the geologic history approach with the concept of the past is the key to the future, to hazard mapping. The 1978 publication of the Mount St. Helens hazards assessment and forecast of an eruption in the near future, followed by the large eruption in 1980 demonstrated the utility of volcano hazards assessments and triggered huge growth in this area of volcano science. Numerical models of hazardous processes began to be developed and used for identifying hazardous areas in 1980s and have proliferated since the late 1990s. Model outputs are most useful and accurate when they are constrained by geological knowledge of the volcano. Volcanic Hazard maps can be broadly categorized into those that portray long-term unconditional volcanic hazards-maps showing all areas with some degree of hazard and those that are developed during an unrest or eruption crisis and take into account current monitoring, observation, and forecast information.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.325-337
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• 2017

In this paper, we proposed a new long-term lifetime distribution with four parameters inserted in a risk competitive scenario with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard rate functions, namely the Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution. This new distribution arises from a scenario of competitive latent risk, in which the lifetime associated to the particular risk is not observable, and where only the minimum lifetime value among all risks is noticed in a long-term context. However, it can also be used in any other situation as long as it fits the data well. The Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution is presented as a particular case for the new exponential-Poisson long-term distribution and Weibull long-term distribution. The properties of the proposed distribution were discussed, including its probability density, survival and hazard functions and explicit algebraic formulas for its order statistics. Assuming censored data, we considered the maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation. For different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages various simulation studies were performed to study the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimative, and compare the performance of the model proposed with the particular cases. The selection criteria Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and likelihood ratio test were used for the model selection. The relevance of the approach was illustrated on two real datasets of where the new model was compared with its particular cases observing its potential and competitiveness.