• 대기
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.117-128
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• 2012

Does snow depth initialization have a quantitative impact on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction skill? To answer this question, a snow depth initialization technique for seasonal forecast system has been implemented and the impact of the initialization on the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature during the wintertime is examined. Since the snow depth observation can not be directly used in the model simulation due to the large systematic bias and much smaller model variability, an anomaly rescaling method to the snow depth initialization is applied. Snow depth in the model is initialized by adding a rescaled snow depth observation anomaly to the model snow depth climatology. A suite of seasonal forecast is performed for each year in recent 12 years (1999-2010) with and without the snow depth initialization to evaluate the performance of the developed technique. The results show that the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature over East Asian region sensitively depends on the initial snow depth anomaly over the region. However, the sensitivity shows large differences for different timing of the initialization and forecast lead time. Especially, the snow depth anomaly initialized in the late winter (Mar. 1) is the most effective in modulating the surface air temperature anomaly after one month. The real predictability gained by the snow depth initialization is also examined from the comparison with observation. The gain of the real predictability is generally small except for the forecasting experiment in the early winter (Nov. 1), which shows some skillful forecasts. Implications of these results and future directions for further development are discussed.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.212-220
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• 2015

We examined the appearance of cold water in the southwest region of the East Sea, based on the sea surface temperature (SST) at the east coast of Korea and buoy data in Donghae ($37^{\circ}31$'N, $130^{\circ}00$'E, 80 km east away from Donghae port) and Pohang ($36^{\circ}21$'N, $129^{\circ}46$'E, 35 km east away from Ganggu port) from June to August in 2013. Also, the serial oceanographic data of National Fisheries Research and Development Institute (NFRDI) were used to see the oceanographic conditions for June and August in 2013. The SST anomaly at the east coast showed negative values in $3{\sim}6^{\circ}C$ from 2 July. At Janggigab, the SST anomaly showed negative value amount to $10^{\circ}C$ in 8 July. The negative values of SST anomaly continued to the middle of August at Janggigab. The wind speed was 6~11 m/s and the direction was south-southwestly in 1 July. The wind speed amounts to 6~16 m/s in 2 July. It means that the strong wind induced the upwelling effect by a day. The temperature was lower than normal at the depth in 20 m of the East Sea in June and August. The air pressure was 996~998 hPa in the beginning of July. It was the lowest air pressure during the studied period. The correlation was 0.3 between the SST anomaly and air pressure. It was suggested that the appearance of cold water in the East Sea was influenced by a stirring due to wind and low air pressure as well as coastal upwelling.

• 한국해양환경ㆍ에너지학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.55-62
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 1971년부터 2000년까지의 국립수산과학원(NFRDI) 정선관측자료와 1924년부터 2004년까지의 제주지방기상청(JRMO) 기온자료를 이용하여 제주도 주변해역의 해수면 온도 변동성과 제주도 기온변동성의 상관관계를 살펴보았다. 그 결과, 기온은 80년 동안 $0.020^{circ}C/year$ 정도의 상승률을 보이고 있었으며 최근 30년 동안 $0.035^{circ}C/year$의 상승률을 보여 비교적 높은 상승추세를 보이고 있었다. 해수면 온도는 $0.024^{circ}C/year$의 상승률을 보이고 있고 특히 겨울철인 12월에 $0.047^{circ}C/year$로 가장 높은 상승률을 보이고 있었다. 해수면 온도와 기온 사이에는 양의 상관 관계를 가지며 시계열자료를 분석한 결과 두 변수의 위상이 일치하고 있음을 알 수 있었으며 해수면 온도 아노말리와 기온 아노말리에서도 유사하게 나타나고 있다. 즉, 제주도 주변해역의 해면 온도 변동은 제주도 기온변화와 큰 연관이 있음을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국건축친환경설비학회 논문집
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.579-590
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• 2018

Anomaly detection on building energy consumption has been regarded as an effective tool to reduce energy saving on building operation and maintenance. However, it requires energy model and FDD expert for quantitative model approach or large amount of training data for qualitative/history data approach. Both method needs additional time and labors. This study propose a machine learning and data science approach to define faulty conditions on hourly building energy consumption with reducing data amount and input requirement. It suggests an application of Support Vector Data Description (SVDD) method on training normal condition of hourly building energy consumption incorporated with hourly outdoor air temperature and time integer in a week, 168 data points and identifying hourly abnormal condition in the next day. The result shows the developed model has a better performance when the ${\nu}$ (probability of error in the training set) is 0.05 and ${\gamma}$ (radius of hyper plane) 0.2. The model accuracy to identify anomaly operation ranges from 70% (10% increase anomaly) to 95% (20% decrease anomaly) for daily total (24 hours) and from 80% (10% decrease anomaly) to 10%(15% increase anomaly) for occupied hours, respectively.

• International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Korean Journal of Geophysical Research
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.47-54
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• 1993

해수면 온도의 positive anomaly가 주로 나타나는 구역은 대기중 습기 유입이 많은 구역분만 아니라 아열대 지역의 하강 운동이 일어나는 구역의 부근에서도 나타난다. 대기중 수증기의 유입은 SST anomaly에 따라 많아지기 때문에 해수면 온도의 증가는 대기를 불안정하게 하며 습윤 공기의 발달을 촉진하는 습윤 단열한 불안정상태를 초래한다. 태평양상에서 4.0K 의SST 변화는 동태평양과 중앙태평양상에서 TOVS 수증기 채널들에 의해 관측된 휘도 온도의 10.0 K 만큰의 양의 차이를 보였으며, 적도를 따라 남태평양상의 남동쪽과 남쪽으로는 휘도 온도가 7.5 K 만큼 음의 차이를 보였다. 엘니뇨와 비엘리뇨 기간을 비교하면 중대류권 고도에서 수증기 분포를 나타내는 TOVS 적외선 채널 $11(7.3{\mu}m)$과 $12(6.7{\mu}m)$의 휘도 온도 차이는 태평양상에서 습윤 공기와 관련한 전대류권 순환과 역학 과정에서 현저한 차이가 있었음을 알 수 있다.

• International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Korean Journal of Geophysical Research
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.31-41
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• 1998

The climatic characteristics of summer in 1998 are analyzed with the weather observational data and the upper air observational data. The temperature of that period is lower than that of normal years and the precipitation is larger. Due to the heavy rainfall which started at July 31, rain pured down compared to normal years and the maximum precipitation recorded at the many observational stations, particularly in Seoul, Kyunggi-Do region and mountanious districts like Taegwallyong, Mt. Sokri and Mt. Chiri. The patterns of general circulations in 1982/98 and 1997/98 are compared each other and are analyzed. The anomaly patterns of stream functions on winter in two El Nio years are simialr. The counterclockwise circulation occurred near the date line and the clockwise circulation was appeared near the Hwanam region and Alaska. These patterns are opposite to those of La Nia year, 1988/89. And the anomaly patterns of 500hPa geopotential height in summer are similar, too. The low temperature and much rain were dominated in summer of 1997/98. These phenomena is similar to the existing results of research, that temperature is low and precipitation is large in summer of El Nio years.

• 대기
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.61-71
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• 2021

The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and surface air temperature (SAT) over Korea is re-examined using the long-term observation and reanalysis datasets for the period of December 1958 to February 2020. Over the entire period, Korean SAT is positively correlated with the AO index with a statistically significant correlation coefficient, greater than 0.4, only in the boreal winter. It is found that this correlation is not static but changes on the decadal time scale. While the 15-year moving correlations are as high as 0.6 in 1980s and 1990s, they are smaller than 0.3 in the other decades. It is revealed that this decadal variation is partly due to the AO structure change over the North Pacific. In the period of 1980s-1990s, the AO-related sea level pressure fluctuation is strong and well defined over the western North Pacific and the related temperature advection effectively changes the winter SAT over Korea. In the other periods, the AO-related circulation anomaly is either weak or mostly confined within the central North Pacific. This result suggests that Korean SAT-AO index relationship, which becomes insignificant in recent decades is highly dependent on mean flow change in the North Pacific.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제43권5호
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• pp.701-714
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• 2008

본 연구는 미국 지역을 사례로 겨울철 및 여름철에 장기간 지속되는 이상고온기 발생에 유리한 종관 규모의 매커니즘을 밝힌다. 여름철 이상고온기는 주로 미국의 남중부 지역에서 발생하는 반면, 겨울철 이상고온기는 미서부 지역에서 발생한다. 지상 및 상층 기압장 자료 분석 결과, 이러한 이상고온기는 태평양과 대서양의 아열대 고기압들의 활동과 밀접하게 관련되어있다. 장기간 지속되는 여름철 이상고온기는 중층 및 상층 블러킹 고기압의 활동에 의해 형성되는 매우 안정된 대기 조건하에서 주로 발생한다. 또한 이 시기에는 지표강제력으로 상대적으로 높은 보웬비(Bowen ratio)가 나타나지만, 따뜻한 공기의 이류의 영향은 크지 않다. 반면, 장기간 지속되는 겨울철 이상고온기는 블러킹 고기압에 의한 단열 기온 상승뿐만 아니라 따뜻한 공기의 이류의 복합적인 작용에 의해 나타난다. 그러나 이 시기의 지표 강제력의 영향은 약하다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.992-996
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• 2008

In this study, changes in precipitation across South Korea during snow seasons (November-April) and their potential are examined. Current (1973/74-2006/07) and future (2081-2100) time series of snow indices including snow season, snow-to-precipitation ratio, and snow impossible day are extracted from observed snow and precipitation data for 61 weather stations as well as observed and modeled daily temperature data. Analyses of linear trends reveal that snow seasons have shortened by 3-13 days/decade; that the snow-to-precipitation ratio (the percentage of snow days relative to precipitation days) has decreased by 4-8 %/decade. These changes are associated with pronounced formations of a positive pressure anomaly core over East Asia during the positive Arctic Oscillation winter years since the late 1980s. A snow-temperature statistical model demonstrates that the warming due to the positive core winter intensifies changes from snow to rain at the rate of $4.7cm/^{\circ}C$. The high pressure anomaly pattern has also contributed to decreases of air-sea thermal gradient which are associated with the reduction of snow could formation. Modeled data predict that a fingerprint of wintertime global warming causing changes from snow to rain will continue to be observed over the 21st century.

• 대기
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.465-472
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• 2012

Using various observed data, we examined the evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during 2011-2012, with focusing on the development of 2012 El Ni$\tilde{n}$o. It is observed that a La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event during 2011 was followed by a moderate El Ni$\tilde{n}$o during 2012 summer. The 2012 summer El Ni$\tilde{n}$o initiated near the west coast of South America on February 2012, and continued to expand westward till August. Given this evolutionary pattern, the 2012 summer El Ni$\tilde{n}$o can be categorized as 'Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni$\tilde{n}$o' because Ni$\tilde{n}$o-3 index is greater than Ni$\tilde{n}$o-4 index, and it may be the first well-defined EP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o since 2001. On February 2012, this event was initiated mainly by the local air-sea interaction, and at the same time the ocean heat content was accumulated over the tropical western Pacific due to the easterly wind anomaly over the tropical western Pacific. Then, the accumulated heat content slowly propagates to the tropical eastern Pacific, which attributes to maintain El Ni$\tilde{n}$o state during 2012 summer. After August, the positive SST anomaly over the equatorial eastern Pacific decays possibly due to the exhausted heat content and the weakening of air-sea interaction, but the weak positive SST anomaly over the central Pacific remains till now (2012 November).