• Acta Via Serica
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.1-24
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• 2020

Afghanistan has experienced more than four decades of severe disruption, ever since the communist coup of April 1978 plunged the country into a state of disorder that was then severely aggravated by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979. Despite the high hopes that accompanied the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001, Afghanistan's path in the first two decades of the 21st century has proved to be anything but smooth, and this article highlights a confluence of challenges - political, diplomatic, and societal - that Afghanistan presently faces, challenges that in large measure account for the profound uncertainty that clouds its future. The article is divided into four sections. The first provides some context for the discussion of these three challenges. The remaining sections investigate the particular challenges - intra-elite rivalries, a fragile and defective peace process, and the underreported but grave threat to life and limb in Afghanistan resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic - in more detail. Together, these challenges highlight the dangers of wishful thinking about harsh realities.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권9호
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• pp.317-325
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• 2022

The simple regression model (SRM) is used in this study to look at potential economic growth-influencing factors. The sample's period runs from 2005 to 2019. The data was gathered from various ministries and government agencies such as the Central Bank of Afghanistan's Statistical Bulletin, the World Bank, the United Nations (UN), World Bank open data, NASA, Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry of Economy (MoE), and Central Bank of Afghanistan's Statistical Bulletin (CBA), as well as the internet and news. There is an urgent need to ensure that taxes are collected in the most efficient manner possible because one of the enormous management gaps in Afghanistan over the last two decades has been tax evasion. According to the results of this study, tax evasion has a negative and significant impact on Afghanistan's economic growth. We can affirm that the subject of this article is among the most significant topics recently discussed in my country. If the right solutions are implemented, It can significantly contribute to quickening the cycle of the developing Afghan economy and turning it from an unstable to a sustainable one.

• 시큐리티연구
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• 제33호
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• pp.261-290
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• 2012

2001년에 있었던 OEF(Operation Enduring Freedom)이후로 아프가니스탄은 글로벌 테러리즘과의 전쟁에서 중요한 전쟁터의 하나가 되어왔다. 지난 10년 동안 미국 정부와 동맹국들과 아프가니스탄 정부는 테러리스트들과 무장 항쟁자들(insurgents)을 분쇄하고 동시에 전국적으로 기능하는 통치시스템을 구축하기 위해 상당한 노력을 기울여 왔다. 하지만, 그러한 목표는 여전히 그 끝이 보이지 않는 것 같다. 아프가니스탄에서의 테러와 무장항쟁은 여전히 활발히 전개되고 있으며 골칫거리가 되고 있다. 따라서 이 연구는 전쟁으로 상처받은 아프간 국가에서 일어나는 테러 문제들을 보다 효과적으로 다루기 위해 필요한 의미 있는 지식과 정보를 얻기 위해 시도되는 노력 가운데 하나이다. 이 연구는 2004년에서 2007년 사이에 아프가니스탄에서 발생한 폭탄테러 사건에 관한 분석된 정보를 제공하고자 하는 목적을 가지고 있다. 이를 위해 이 연구는 아프간 폭탄테러 공격의 공간적 분포 양상을 파악하기 위해 GIS (Geographic information System) 분석기법을 채택한다. 이 연구의 구체적 초점은 테러리스트가 어떤 목표물을 공격할 것인가를 결정할 때 합리적으로 행동할 것인가를 검토하고자 하는 것이다. 분석을 위해서, 이 연구는 지역적인 특성이 폭탄테러 공격의 목표물이 되는 위험성에 어떤 영향을 줄 것인가 하는데 초점을 맞출 것이다. 이 연구의 가정을 검토하기 위해서 폭탄테러 공격의 대상이 가지는 지리적 또는 공간적 특성이 테러리스트가 지불해야 하는 공격을 실행하는데 드는 비용과 어떻게 상호작용하는지를 살펴볼 것이다. 이를 위해 이 연구는 1) 아프가니스탄에서 폭탄테러 공격의 공간적 분포양상을 보여줄 것이며, 2) 테러 조직의 본부(또는 주요 거점)와 폭탄테러가 발생한 지역 간의 거리의 관계를 조사할 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권7호
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• pp.477-489
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of credit risk on commercial banks' profitability in Afghanistan. Due to the availability of limited data, this study applies the Fixed Effects estimator on balance panel data of six domestic private commercial banks over the period 2014-2018. The study uses LLRTL, TLTA, and TLTD as credit risk indictors, size as bank-specific determinant, ROAA, ROAE, and NIM as profitability indicators. The study finds a robust negative and significant effect of LLRTL on ROAA, and ROAE, but positive and insignificant on NIM. The results also reveal significant positive effect of TLTA on NIM, however insignificant negative on ROAA while insignificant positive on ROAE. The study finds negative effect of TLTD on ROAA, ROAE, and NIM, but only significant on NIM. Further, this study reveals a robust negative and significant effect of size on all profitability indicators. The mean comparison of profitability demonstrates that NIM is in a better situation than others profitability indicators, which is a good sign for the Afghan banking sector. The findings of this study suggest that improving credit management, increasing efficiency of asset management or effectiveness of business model can increase commercial banks' profitability in Afghanistan.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권24호
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• pp.10981-10984
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• 2015

Background: Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) is the standard technique for diagnosis of patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal symptoms. Some reports have shown high prevalence of esophageal cancer in the northern part of Afghanistan. The aim of this study was to investigate epidemiological profile of esophageal cancer among patients in this region. Materials and Methods: We identified 364 consecutive patients that received EGD examinations to examine upper gastrointestinal tract at the endoscopy unit of Balkh regional Hospital from March 2012 to March 2013. The case subjects included both in-patients and out-patients aged 16 years or more. We evaluated the results retrospectively. Results: The cases consisted of 184 (51%) males and 180 (49%) females. The mean age was $47.3{\pm}17.8$ and the age range 17-88 years. Ninety two cases had esophageal cancer, out of which 58 (63.0%) were male. The mean age at time of diagnosis was $57.8{\pm}13.2years$. Uzbek-Turkmen peoples were more common among patients with esophageal cancer (52.2%). Dysphagia was the most frequent symptom among patients with esophageal cancer at the time of presentation, seen in 77 (84.8%) of cases. Conclusions: Our results showed high incidence of esophageal cancer in the northern part of Afghanistan, especially in the Uzbek-Turkmen ethnic group.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.569-580
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• 2008

If slope height was more than 20 meters, we conducted an analysis of stereographic projection and limit equilibrium at this slope. We proposed reduction of slope face angle and reinforcement of rock bolt depending on analysis. Blasting design : Standard pattern based on result of local test blasting was made for blasting design. Vibration criterion was set for less than 3.0mm/s because of outworn buildings and inhabitants opinions. Production blasting and Controlled blasting has been done as Construction standard pattern. After Vibration Monitoring has been done, so that we can control of complement. "Bidding Document" and AASHTO 2001 "A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets" were so for design criteria of earthwork but they were different actual design criteria and left something to be desired in Afghanistan. Therefore, although "Bidding Document" and "AASHTO 2001" were basic design criteria, domestic design criteria was reflected in this design criteria for complement by discussion with supervisor. Drainage design : For stability ratio, ditch of arch block and stonework was designed by rainfall data for the 13 years and discussion with supervisor. Pavement was designed as flexible pavement. Because these days in Afghanistan postwar repair works, especially urgent repairing of roads and newly making of roads, are very highly in progress, I think that Afghanistan is the region about which our construction technical experts should have great concerns.

• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2022

In this paper, a study was conducted to predict natural disasters in Afghanistan based on machine learning. Natural disasters need to be prepared not only in Korea but also in other vulnerable countries. Every year in Afghanistan, natural disasters(snow, earthquake, drought, flood) cause property and casualties. We decided to conduct research on this phenomenon because we thought that the damage would be small if we were to prepare for it. The Azure Machine Learning Studio used in the study has the advantage of being more visible and easier to use than other Machine Learning tools. Decision Forest is a model for classifying into decision tree types. Decision forest enables intuitive analysis as a model that is easy to analyze results and presents key variables and separation criteria. Also, since it is a nonparametric model, it is free to assume (normality, independence, equal dispersion) required by the statistical model. Finally, linear/non-linear relationships can be searched considering interactions between variables. Therefore, the study used decision forest. The study found that overall accuracy was 89 percent and average accuracy was 97 percent. Although the results of the experiment showed a little high accuracy, items with low natural disaster frequency were less accurate due to lack of learning. By learning and complementing more data, overall accuracy can be improved, and damage can be reduced by predicting natural disasters.

• 대한지리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한지리학회 2006년도 연례 학술대회
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• pp.125-127
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• 2006

• Acta Via Serica
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.165-184
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• 2021

This article demonstrates the significance of long-distance networks formed by traders from Afghanistan and Central Asia to the forging of present-day transregional connections within Asia. It identifies two connective corridors authored by these traders: a 'Eurasian corridor' connecting East Asia to post-Soviet Eurasia and extending into Western Europe and a 'West Asian corridor' involving traders originally from Central Asia linking East Asia to Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula. Empirically, the paper documents and analyses the varying cultural and political orientations of traders operating along these networks, and ways in which specific nodes in the networks contribute to their activities as a whole. Conceptually, the papers suggest that the study of 'inter-Asian' connections stands to benefit from deploying oceanic and inland models of geography in a non-dichotomous manner.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.848-863
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• 2021

연구목적: 2021년 8월 16일 탈레반은 국제테러조직간 공고한 동맹관계를 이용하여, 아프가니스탄 수도 카불을 점령한 뒤 탈레반 정권을 수립하였다. 탈레반은 대한민국 국민을 대상으로, 2004년 김선일 피랍, 2007년 샘물교회 교인 피랍, 2009년 지역재건팀에 대한 공격하는 등 테러를 자행하였으며, 2021 대한민국 아프간 난민 구출 작전에 대해서는 적대감을 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 고에서는 탈레반에 의한 대한민국 테러 발생 가능성을 살펴보고자 한다. 연구방법: 샘물교회 피랍사건으로 국내에도 잘 알려진 탈레반의 전술, 전략, 공격무기 등 다양한 테러활동을 살펴보고, 아프가니스탄에서 발생한 테러 통계 데이터를 기반으로 국내에서 발생 가능한 테러유형과 테러대상시설을 분석하였다. 연구결과: 탈레반은 아프간 정부를 주요 공격대상으로 하고 있으며, IS와 탈레반은 테러대상 선정에 있어 차이를 보인다. 결론: 아프간을 장악한 탈레반과 전 세계 테러리즘 네트워크를 구축한 IS가 협력하여, 국내 다중이용시설을 대상으로 폭탄테러의 위협을 가한다면, 대한민국은 대테러 관련 미흡한 자원과 대책으로 테러 위기에 직면할 수 있다.