• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.159-165
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• 2008

The ROK army has equipped ATCIS (Army Tactical Control Information System) for the Corps echelon to visualize the battlefield and reduce the reaction time. Due to the information&surveillance equipment, uncertainty and variance of the battlefield have been decreased. However decision making for the ground operations has not changed as it depends on knowledge of the commander and staffs. The War game process to select and assess the best CoA (Course of Action) also depends on the pros and cons due to the limitation of time and capability. For the balanced development between intangible and tangible military strength, a new decision making process which is quantitative and useful for the military is needed. In this study, we suggest a Fuzzy-AHP based decision making model to improve troop leading procedure which is useful to evaluate and reflect intangible characteristics of the battlefield.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.292-300
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• 1995

This paper present a new dynamic HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) method and its application for Quantifying the human error probabilities in implementing an accident management action. For comparisons of current HRA methods with the new method, the characteristics of THERP, HCR, and SLIM-MAUD, which are most frequently used methods in PSAs, are discussed. The action associated with the implementation of the cavity flooding during a station blackout sequence is considered for its application. This method is based on the concepts of the quantified correlation between the performance requirement and performance achievement. The MAAP 3.0B code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the performance achievement parameter. Meanwhile, the value of the performance requirement parameter is obtained from interviews. Based on these stochastic distributions obtained, human error probabilities are calculated with respect to the various means and variances of the timings. It is shown that this method is very flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of the operator actions, including the actions associated with the implementation of accident management strategies.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.37-57
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• 1987

This article discussed the characteristics of several Pareto-optimal incentive contracts between owner and labor, more specifically, four situations: reporting output jointly observable by labor ana owner; reporting both output and effort; incorporating other endogenous elements (like capital) that affect the production process and Pareto-optimal fee schedules; and ascertaining the effects of private pre-decision information private- decision information, and per-contact informational asymmetries. Also presented were several extensions of the basic contractual model, and the different components of agency costs associated with labor-owner contractual relations. In a single-period model, the agency problem exists because the uncertainty prevents the owner from using the cash flow to determine unambiguously the labor's action. Holmstrom(1979) suggests that "when the same situation repeats itself over time, the effects of uncertainty tend to be reduced and dystunctional behavior is more accurately revealed, thus alleviating the problem of moral hazard. " Under these conditions, if the labor selects the first-best level of effect in each period, the cash flow will be independent and identically distributed over time. As the number of periods increases, the variance of the labows average output, if he selects the first-best level of effort in each period, gets smaller. Note that for this diversification effect to occur, it is necessary that the owner evaluate the labor's effort over the entire history of his employment, rather than evaluate each period's performance separately. Radner(1980) and Rubinstein and Yaari(1980) consider the extreme case in which there are an infinite number of observations. They show that the owner can eventually detect and systematic shirking on the part of the labor by comparing the labor's average output with what would be expected if the labor had been selecting the first-best level of effort in each period. In a dynamic model with incentive problems we have demonstrated that the labor's second-period compensation will depend on his first-period performance. This allows the owner to diversify away some of the uncertainty surrounding the labor's actions. In addition, this allows the owner to smooth the labor's income over time by spreading the risk of the first-period outcome over both periods. At least some unexplored avenves in this area invite future accounting research: situations where owner has different incompatible objectives and negotiates a contract with labor; circumstances in which owner deals with multiple objectives and negotiates contracts with several labors simultaneously; the value of costly accounting information systems and communication in establishing, Pareto-optimal incentive contracts, and the value and effects of inside information, Thorough theoretical or empirical research on each of these topics not only would increase our knowledge about the role and significance of accounting information but could also provide explanations of the inherent differences among various organizations and in their economic behavior. behavior.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.149-161
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• 2012

Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2000

The experience of many countries strongly suggests that bad governments and institutions have been a serious, if not the most serious, obstacle to economic growth and industry-structural adjustments. All public sectors pursue a mix of both predatory and productive activities-bad governments emphasizing the former, while good governments finding a way of promoting the later. In fishery public policy studies, much confusion exists about the roles of policy illustration and prescription. In general fishery public sectors involve collective actions by numerous individuals under conditions of uncertainty, complexity, bounded rationality, and imperfect information structure. All collective fisheries action organizations consist of a center(e.g., government), which leads fishery group actions, and peripheral participants(e.g., fishermen), which are controlled by the government. A paradigm is developed that gives both theoretical and empirical meaning to the constitutional determination of fisheries political preference function or fishery public sector governance structures. Three relevant spaces are specified: policy instrument, results, and constitutional. The collective-choice rules of the constitutional space structure the tradeoff between public and special fishery interest groups. Fishery public sectors seeking sustainable reductions in wasteful rent-seeking fishing activities should select constitutional principles and institutional structures that tend to promote resource sustainability. In particular, the effects of internal and external events on fisheries may result in a greater or lesser concentration of interest group power. Thus, the structure of the fishereis political power must be assessed in any prescriptive evaluation of alternative fishery governance weights.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.277-288
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• 2017

Purpose: This study was performed to identify the experience of becoming a father of a high risk premature infant. Methods: Grounded theory was used for this research. The participants were 12 fathers who had premature infants lighter than 2,500g of birth weight, less than 37 weeks of gestational age and having stayed 2 weeks or longer in a NICU right after birth. Theoretical sampling was done to identify participants and indepth interviews were done for the data collection. For data analysis, the process suggested by Corbin and Strauss was used. Results: For these participants the core phenomenon of the experience of becoming a father of a high risk premature infant was 'striving through with belief and patience'. The phenomenon was 'being frustrated in an unrealistic shock'. Contextual conditions were 'uncertainty in the health status of the premature baby' and 'no one to ask for help' and intervening conditions were 'possibility in the health recovery of the premature baby' and 'assistance from significant others'. Action/interaction strategies were 'withstanding with belief in the baby' and 'enduring with willpower as head of the family' and the consequence was 'becoming a guardian of the family'. Conclusion: For the participants, the process of becoming the father of a high risk premature infant was striving through the situation with belief in their babies' ability to overcome the crisis and waiting for the babies' recovery with patience.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.123-130
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• 2002

This paper presents a new dynamic human reliability analysis method and its application for quantifying the human error probabilities in implementing accident management actions. The action associated with implementation of the cavity flooding during a station blackout sequence is considered for its application. This method is based on the concept of the quantified correlation between the performance requirement and performance achievement. For comparisons of current HRA methods with the new method, the characteristics of THERP, HCR, and SLIM-MAUD, which m most frequency used method in PSAs, are discussed. The MAAP code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the performance achievement parameter. Meanwhile, the value of the performance requirement parameter is obtained from interviews. Based on these stochastic obtained, human error probabilities are calculated with respect to the various means and variances of the things. It is shown that this method is very flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of the operator actions, including the actions associated with the implementation of accident management strategies.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.391-414
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• 2015

In this paper, stabilities of a plane slide rock slope under different hydraulic distributions were studied based on the nonlinear Barton-Bandis (B-B) failure criterion. The influence of various parameters on the stability of rock slopes was analyzed. Parametric analysis indicated that studying the factor of safety (FS) of planar slide rock slopes using the B-B failure criterion is both simple and effective and that the effects of the basic friction angle of the joint (${\varphi}_b$), the joint roughness coefficient (JRC), and the joint compressive strength (JCS) on the FS of a planar slide rock slope are significant. Qualitatively, the influence of the JCS on the FS of a slope is small, whereas the influences of the ${\varphi}_b$ and the JRC are significant. The FS of the rock slope decreases as the water in a tension crack becomes deeper. This trend is more significant when the flow outlet is blocked, a situation that is particularly prevalent in regions with permafrost or seasonal frozen soil. Finally, the work is extended to study the reliability of the slope against plane failure according to the uncertainty from physical and mechanics parameters.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.5
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• pp.841-846
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• 2010

Reliability in electrical power system refers to normal operation for schedule time in some system that action consists. It means that if there is no contingency of electric power supply decrease or load curtailment, reliability of the system is high. In this paper, a method for evaluation of transmission capability is proposed considering reliability standards. Deterministic and probabilistic methods for evaluation of transmission capability has been studied. These researches considered uncertainty of system components or N-1 contingency only. However, the proposed method can inform customers and system operators more suitable transmission capability. Well-being method using state probabilities of system components proves to be a more effective method in this paper comparing with calculation of LOLE(Loss of Load Expectation). The length of calculation is shorter but it can give more practical information to the exact system operators. Well-being method is applied to IEEE-RTS 24bus system to evaluate reliability in case study. The result is compared with a existing way to evaluate reliability with LOLE and it shows that transmission capability connected with adjacent networks. This paper informs system operators and power suppliers of reliable information for operating power system.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.401-407
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• 2016

For high fuel economy, many kinds of unit in vehicle have been developed. In steering system, as a result, HPS(Hydraulic Power Steering) system has been replaced as EHPS and EPS system. But the structures of these systems are totally different, and that causes the uncertainty of fuel economy evaluation. Therefore we undertake to research to find results and tendency of fuel economy and energy in steering system. For accurate evaluation, we modeled different types of steering systems on same vehicle model. The simulation came into action on various driving cycle. The driving condition is designed to show standby power of pump. Results show differences of fuel efficiency and energy consumption.